Previsão de falência : melhoria da eficiência na utilização da informação económica e financeira

Tese de doutoramento em Gestão, Universidade Lusíada de Lisboa, 2022Exame público realizado em 25 de Março de 2022As recorrentes e cada vez mais devastadoras crises trazem à actualidade o interesse da investigação sobre as causas influenciadoras da saúde empresarial e em particular da destruição das empresas personificadas no conceito de falência empresarial, cujo crescimento é fruto dos tempos difíceis que vivemos. Aquilo a que nos propomos, além da revisão dos conceitos teóricos e das práticas no que concerne a esta temática, é a criação de modelos que procurem respeitar o preconizado por Bellovary et al. (2007) na senda da obtenção da melhoria da sua capacidade predictiva ou da diminuição dos erros na classificação de entidades. Com o objectivo de potenciar uma análise transectorial e transnacional, tomámos por amostra empresas europeias, das secções CAE C – Indústrias Transformadoras, F – Construção e G – Comércio por Grosso e a Retalho, Reparação de Veículos Automóveis. Propomos partir dos indicadores económico-financeiros mais comuns, incluir outros de carácter macroeconómico e todos os demais, possíveis de criar por combinação das rubricas das “Demonstrações Financeiras”, a fim de encontrar outros rácios com capacidade predictiva que não tenham, ainda, sido identificados. Por fim, estudaram-se as formas de separação inicial das empresas na criação de funções, observando novos critérios, bem como a sua influência na performance dos modelos. Verificámos, para as empresas em estudo, a possibilidade de um modelo transnacional e sectorial, bem como existência de potencial explicativo em novos indicadores, na sua maioria de cariz macroeconómico, melhorando a capacidade predictiva das funções. Observámos ainda que a separação de empresas com recurso ao critério da materialidade do “Capital Próprio”, em lugar dos tradicionais, optimiza a previsão da falência empresarial.The recurring and increasingly devastating crises bring to the present time the interest in research on the influential causes of corporate health and in particular the destruction of companies personified in the concept of corporate bankruptcy, whose growth, is a result of the difficult times we are experiencing. This research intent, in addition to the review of theoretical concepts and practices regarding this topic, the construction of models that seek to follow what is advocated by Bellovary et al. (2007) to obtain improvements in their predictive ability or the decrease of the entities’ classification errors. With the overall objective a cross-sectoral and transnational analysis, we sampled portuguese, french and romanian entities, with main activity in the sections NACE C - Transforming Industries, F - Construction and G - Wholesale and Retail, Repair of Motor Vehicles and Motorcycles. We propose to start from the economic-financial indicators most used, include others of a macroeconomic nature, and add the ones that could be built by combining the items in the Financial Statements, in order to discover the possible existence of ratios with predictive capacity that may have not been yet identified. Finally, we studied, in the models’ construction process, the companies’ initial separation technics, observing a new criterion, as well as its influence on the models’ performance. We observed, for the companies under study, the possibility of a transnational and sectoral model, as well as the existence of explanatory potential of new indicators, mostly from a macroeconomic background, improving the models’ predictive capacity. We also observed that the separation of companies with a criterion of “Equity” materiality, instead of the traditional ones, optimizes the corporate bankruptcy forecast

The Accounting Reflection of the Investment’s Tax Benefits

Purpose: The central objective is therefore to explain the tax benefits for investment and their reflection in the rendering of accounts, by understanding the broad concept of tax benefits, understanding the diversity that exists, with a particular focus on effectively demonstrating their applicability.   Theoretical Framework: In view of the Portuguese economic context, the government has systematically created new programs and adopted tax measures aimed at granting tax benefits to promote the growth and economic development of companies. According to Teixeira (2008), the legislator establishes tax benefits with the aim of protecting the environment, encouraging savings, fostering employment and vocational training, preserving culture and cultural heritage, making incentives in tax systems crucial. In Portugal there are various types of tax benefits, such as income tax, tax deductions, investment tax and others. There are around 600 tax benefits that you can take advantage of if you consider all the conditions for their use.   Design/Methodology/Approach: In this research, the tax benefit being analyzed will be investment, due to its importance in the business world and the complexity associated with it, making it an important instrument in terms of promoting competitiveness, supporting investment and, consequently, the economy of countries.   Findings: It was possible to conclude that, except for the BFCIP, all the benefits are processed via IRC tax’s deduction and can’t be combined with other benefits of the same nature, except for RFAI and DLRR, which can be combined with each other if the limits aren’t exceeded.   Research, Practical & Social Implications: This information can be used by any interested entitie to improve current conditions, optimize and enhance the usage of tax benefits for investment.   Originality/Value: Tax benefits are a hot topic in the business world and beyond, given that they are a special tax regime that allows companies to have a tax advantage or relief compared to the normal one, helping them to have a lower financial impact by bearing less tax

EFFECTIVENESS OF THE BUSINESS FAILURE PREDICTION MODELS IN THE IBERIAN TRANSPORT COMPANIES

Purpose: validate, in the existing models, its effectiveness and ability to provide useful information for decision-making, allowing the choice of one that presented as the best alternative for predicting bankruptcy for companies in the transport economic sector (NACE H) up to 6 years before it occurs.   Theoretical Framework: in the last decades, since Beaver's (1966) preliminary work in bankruptcy prediction, followed by Altman (1968) models, numerous authors developed different techniques and models to this purpose. Of all the techniques used and developed in almost 60 years of bankruptcy prediction study, Multivariate Discriminant Analysis (MDA) stands out. Despite its limitations, it best combines management and usage simplicity offering stable levels of efficiency.   Design/Methodology/Approach: we selected, Portuguese and Spanish companies, from the transport and storage economic sector, subject to statutory auditing, in a sample of 22 companies, considered healthy, according to the most common criterion in the literature: Equity above zero, during six and that in the seventh were considered bankrupt (Equity below zero) and another, paired with the previous one, by Total Assets and Revenues, with 36 companies that presented Equity above zero throughout all the analyzed period, granting the analyzed models full forecasting potential. Were used 21 multi-sectorial models, for different timelines and geographies, with a greater presence in the literature, or developed by Edward Altman, a unique researcher on this subject, between 1979 and 2014.   Findings: As a main conclusion, in addition to the description of models and techniques, the formulations developed by Carvalho das Neves (1998), Lizarraga (1998) and Monelos et al. (2011) were the best predictors of bankruptcy, up to 6 years before it occurs, for Portuguese and Spanish companies in the transport economic sector (NACE H).   Research, Practical & Social Implications: This information can be used by any interested entity to improve current conditions, optimize and enhance the usage the bankruptcy forecast models.   Originality/Value: The global financial crisis and the growing number of company closures make it crucial to understand the causes of corporate failure, with emphasis on forecasting and anticipating it

A influência dos prémios na divulgação de informação não financeira pelas entidades portuguesas

Lusíada. Economia & Empresa. - ISSN 1645-6750. - N. 33 (2022). - p

VALUE CREATION, CORPORATE INCOME TAXATION AND TAX EVASION – AN OVERVIEW

Objective: Globally present the status of the main Portuguese corporate income taxes, as well as a general and theoretical overview of their aggregation, in terms of the effective tax burden. The informal economy and tax evasion problem will also be exposed, as a global approach to its implications, measures to combat and the relationship with the evolution of the tax burden.   Method: was made a brief approach to the Laffer Curve at the Corporate Income Tax level, Municipal Surcharge and effective tax payment, contextualizing “Pagamento por Conta” and Additional “Pagamento por Conta” and of the state of the art of the parallel economy and tax evasion, regarding existing measures for prevention and combat.   Results and Discussion: The central point in the current determination of the tax base is the assumption that the creation of value is, therefore, income corresponding to the accounting result after adjustments. However, this does not consider the company's financial effort of effectively generating this result. It is therefore important to discuss more than new adjustments that may be necessary or changes to the rates’ usage with differential installments, an effective change in the tax base, replacing its current calculation, by determination via added value.   Research Implications: The hypothetical change in the corporate income taxation tax base, witch for the time being is the generated result, after being subject to some corrections, to effectively tax the business creation of value instead.   Originality/Value: Regardless of the maintenance of penalties for less correct behavior the application of the tax calculation on the value created would an equitable encourage taxation, making the creation of value effectively subject to tax and not the simply difference in income and corrected expenses, bringing into the determination of the tax base the cost of generating the result, thus, considering the whole company

A Influência da certificação de qualidade na performance das grandes empresas portuguesas

O evoluir dos encerramentos de empresas com o repetir das crises financeiras faz com que seja cada vez mais importante o estudo dos efeitos das decisões na vida das empresas. A incessante busca pela qualidade, bem com a certificação da mesma, via International Standard Organization (ISO), do ponto de vista teórico, apresenta uma possível relação com o pressuposto da continuidade, possibilitando o potenciar da sustentabilidade económico-financeira da empresa, algo que procuraremos avaliar.Assim, a fim de continuar a disseminação das técnicas, possibilitar uma visão global dos modelos e complementar estudos já desenvolvidos, aprofundando a investigação sobre a falência e performance, com o potencial de poder vir a melhorar os modelos, selecionámos, as empresas portuguesas com dimensão grande (segundo a recomendação 2003/361/CE), com Código de Actividade Económica (CAE) D e G, certificadas com ISO 9000 ou 9001, totalizando 91. Foram ainda geradas as Empresas Médias de cada um destes sectores.Às amostras foram aplicadas técnicas uni e multivariadas (MDA), modelos de previsão de falência empresarial, observados em estudos anteriores como os mais eficientes para a economia ibérica, segundo Peres e Antão (2018) e Peres e Antão (2019), a fim de aferir a performance das empresas, bem como a esperada supremacia das que detêm certificação de qualidade.Como principal conclusão, quer para as técnicas de análise uni como na multivariada, não se observa uma performance superior das empresas certificadas em relação às demais, pelo que não se identifica a efectiva implicação da certificação de qualidade na optimização do desempenho economico-financeiro das empresas

Worldwide trends in hypertension prevalence and progress in treatment and control from 1990 to 2019: a pooled analysis of 1201 population-representative studies with 104 million participants

Background Hypertension can be detected at the primary health-care level and low-cost treatments can effectively control hypertension. We aimed to measure the prevalence of hypertension and progress in its detection, treatment, and control from 1990 to 2019 for 200 countries and territories. Methods We used data from 1990 to 2019 on people aged 30–79 years from population-representative studies with measurement of blood pressure and data on blood pressure treatment. We defined hypertension as having systolic blood pressure 140 mm Hg or greater, diastolic blood pressure 90 mm Hg or greater, or taking medication for hypertension. We applied a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate the prevalence of hypertension and the proportion of people with hypertension who had a previous diagnosis (detection), who were taking medication for hypertension (treatment), and whose hypertension was controlled to below 140/90 mm Hg (control). The model allowed for trends over time to be non-linear and to vary by age. Findings The number of people aged 30–79 years with hypertension doubled from 1990 to 2019, from 331 (95% credible interval 306–359) million women and 317 (292–344) million men in 1990 to 626 (584–668) million women and 652 (604–698) million men in 2019, despite stable global age-standardised prevalence. In 2019, age-standardised hypertension prevalence was lowest in Canada and Peru for both men and women; in Taiwan, South Korea, Japan, and some countries in western Europe including Switzerland, Spain, and the UK for women; and in several low-income and middle-income countries such as Eritrea, Bangladesh, Ethiopia, and Solomon Islands for men. Hypertension prevalence surpassed 50% for women in two countries and men in nine countries, in central and eastern Europe, central Asia, Oceania, and Latin America. Globally, 59% (55–62) of women and 49% (46–52) of men with hypertension reported a previous diagnosis of hypertension in 2019, and 47% (43–51) of women and 38% (35–41) of men were treated. Control rates among people with hypertension in 2019 were 23% (20–27) for women and 18% (16–21) for men. In 2019, treatment and control rates were highest in South Korea, Canada, and Iceland (treatment >70%; control >50%), followed by the USA, Costa Rica, Germany, Portugal, and Taiwan. Treatment rates were less than 25% for women and less than 20% for men in Nepal, Indonesia, and some countries in sub-Saharan Africa and Oceania. Control rates were below 10% for women and men in these countries and for men in some countries in north Africa, central and south Asia, and eastern Europe. Treatment and control rates have improved in most countries since 1990, but we found little change in most countries in sub-Saharan Africa and Oceania. Improvements were largest in high-income countries, central Europe, and some upper-middle-income and recently high-income countries including Costa Rica, Taiwan, Kazakhstan, South Africa, Brazil, Chile, Turkey, and Iran. Interpretation Improvements in the detection, treatment, and control of hypertension have varied substantially across countries, with some middle-income countries now outperforming most high-income nations. The dual approach of reducing hypertension prevalence through primary prevention and enhancing its treatment and control is achievable not only in high-income countries but also in low-income and middle-income settings

Heterogeneous contributions of change in population distribution of body mass index to change in obesity and underweight NCD Risk Factor Collaboration (NCD-RisC)

From 1985 to 2016, the prevalence of underweight decreased, and that of obesity and severe obesity increased, in most regions, with significant variation in the magnitude of these changes across regions. We investigated how much change in mean body mass index (BMI) explains changes in the prevalence of underweight, obesity, and severe obesity in different regions using data from 2896 population-based studies with 187 million participants. Changes in the prevalence of underweight and total obesity, and to a lesser extent severe obesity, are largely driven by shifts in the distribution of BMI, with smaller contributions from changes in the shape of the distribution. In East and Southeast Asia and sub-Saharan Africa, the underweight tail of the BMI distribution was left behind as the distribution shifted. There is a need for policies that address all forms of malnutrition by making healthy foods accessible and affordable, while restricting unhealthy foods through fiscal and regulatory restrictions

Titularização de ativos : uma revisão

Lusíada. Economia & empresa. - ISSN 1645-6750. - S. 2, n. 26 (2019). - p. 77-111Historicamente, a atividade bancária esteve assente na intermediação financeira, onde os bancos, via captação de depósitos, emprestavam recursos aos clientes recebendo o capital emprestado, acrescido dos juros, num período de tempo pré-determinado. As mudanças começaram a surgir, a partir da década de 70, quando os agentes financeiros, não esperando pelo recebimento dos empréstimos, alienaram esses fluxos a terceiros. Numa estrutura um pouco mais sofisticada, o banco poderia agrupar esse conjunto de capital e juros a receber e aliená-los ao mercado, nascendo a titularização. A titularização teve um relevante papel na crise financeira de 2007-2008, (Benmelech e Dlugosz, 2009, Brunnermeier, 2009, Keys et al., 2010 e Bhattacharyya e Purnanandam, 2011), viabilizando um expressivo aumento da concessão de crédito, que conduziu ao aumento dos preços no mercado imobiliário dos EUA e seu subsequente declínio (Brunnermeier, 2009), permitindo a criação de títulos através de engenharia financeira, os quais, percecionados como seguros, estavam expostos a elevados riscos que haviam sido negligenciados (Gennaioli, Shleifer e Vishny, 2012). Por outro lado, teve um impacto positivo no período pós 2008, nomeadamente na viabilização de obtenção de liquidez por parte dos bancos, através dos programas dos Bancos Centrais (Altunbas, Gambacorta e Marqués, 2007, Cardone-Riportella, Samaniego-Medina e Trujillo-Ponce, 2010 e Krebsz, 2011), pelo que continua a existir uma crescente necessidade de conhecer e dominar o conhecimento sobre este instrumento. Com o presente trabalho pretende-se contribuir para o melhor conhecimento do instrumento titularização de ativos, face ao papel que o mesmo teve, e continua a ter no mercado, e em sentido mais lato para a literatura existente sobre titularização de ativos levada a cabo por instituições financeiras (Maddaloni e Peydró, 2011), (Pagano e Volpin, 2008), (Jiang, Nelson e Vytlacil, 2014).Historically, the banking activity was based on financial intermediation, where banks capture deposit and lent funds to clients, receiving the borrowed capital plus interest, over a predetermined period of time. The changes began to emerge, in the beginning of the 1970s, when financial agents, not waiting for the loans’ repayment, disposed of these flows to third parties. In a somewhat more sophisticated structure, the bank could group this set of receivable capital and interest and dispose of it in the market, and so the securitization was born. The securitization played an important role in the 2007-2008 financial crisis, (Benmelech and Dlugosz, 2009, Brunnermeier, 2009, Keys et al., 2010 and Bhattacharyya and Purnanandam, 2011), making possible a significant increase in the loans. (Brunnermeier, 2009), allowing the creation of securities through financial engineering, which, perceived as safe, were exposed to high risks that had been neglected (Gennaioli, Shleifer and Vishny, 2012). On the other hand, it had a positive impact in the post-2008 period, notably on the viability of obtaining liquidity by the banks, through the Central Banks programs (Altunbas, Gambacorta and Marqués, 2007, Cardone-Riportella, Samaniego-Medina and Trujillo-Ponce, 2010 and Krebsz, 2011). Therefore, there is a growing need to know and master the knowledge about this instrument. This paper aims to contribute to a better understanding of the asset’s securitization instrument, considering the role it has had, and continues to have in the market, and in a broader sense, to the literature on asset securitization carried out by financial institutions (Maddaloni and Peydró, 2011), (Pagano and Volpin, 2008), (Jiang, Nelson and Vytlacil, 2014)

Business bankruptcy prediction: the multisectorial models’ efficiency in the Old Blue Economy Iberian companies’

In the risk evaluation by the stakeholders it’s crucial to understand the causes of bankruptcy or breach in corporate sustainability, as well as more efficient ways of predicting it. These techniques, mainly supported by financial analysis, over time, have given rise to a diversity of approaches in particular to the Multivariate Discriminant Analysis. We selected, 54 iberian companies from that sector, divided them in two samples, one of the bankrupt companies and another of the healthy ones, matched by size and business' volume. Were applied 21 multisectoral models from a diversity of countries abd time horizons, with greater presence in the literature. As conclusions, continuing Peres and Antão (2019) the work, were identified the best bankruptcy or sustainability predictors, to the Old Blue Economy Iberian industries’, up to 5 years in advance