Mathematical modeling tendencies in plant pathology

Nowadays plant diseases represent one of the major threats for crops around the world, because they carry healthy, economical, environmental and social problems. Considering this, it is necessary to have a description of the dynamics of plant disease in order to have sustainable strategies to prevent and diminish the impact of the diseases in crops. Mathematical tools have been employed to create models which give a description of epidemic dynamics; the commonly mathematical tools used are: Diseaseprogress curves, Linked Differential Equation (LDE), Area Under disease Progress Curve (AUDPC) and computer simulation. Nevertheless, there are other tools that have been employed in epidemiology of plant disease like: statistical tools, visual evaluations and pictorial assessment. Each tool has its own advantages and disadvantages. The nature of the problem and the epidemiologist necessities determine the mathematical tool to be used and the variables to be included into the model. This paperpresents review of the tools used in epidemiology of plant disease remarking their advantages and disadvantages and mathematical modeling tendencies in plant pathology

Father's occupational exposure to carcinogenic agents and childhood acute leukemia: a new method to assess exposure (a case-control study)

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Medical research has not been able to establish whether a father's occupational exposures are associated with the development of acute leukemia (AL) in their offspring. The studies conducted have weaknesses that have generated a misclassification of such exposure. Occupations and exposures to substances associated with childhood cancer are not very frequently encountered in the general population; thus, the reported risks are both inconsistent and inaccurate. In this study, to assess exposure we used a new method, an exposure index, which took into consideration the industrial branch, specific position, use of protective equipment, substances at work, degree of contact with such substances, and time of exposure. This index allowed us to obtain a grade, which permitted the identification of individuals according to their level of exposure to known or potentially carcinogenic agents that are not necessarily specifically identified as risk factors for leukemia. The aim of this study was to determine the association between a father's occupational exposure to carcinogenic agents and the presence of AL in their offspring.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>From 1999 to 2000, a case-control study was performed with 193 children who reside in Mexico City and had been diagnosed with AL. The initial sample-size calculation was 150 children per group, assessed with an expected odds ratio (OR) of three and a minimum exposure frequency of 15.8%. These children were matched by age, sex, and institution with 193 pediatric surgical patients at secondary-care hospitals. A questionnaire was used to determine each child's background and the characteristics of the father's occupation(s). In order to determine the level of exposure to carcinogenic agents, a previously validated exposure index (occupational exposure index, OEI) was used. The consistency and validity of the index were assessed by a questionnaire comparison, the sensory recognition of the work area, and an expert's opinion.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The adjusted ORs and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were 1.69 (0.98, 2.92) during the preconception period; 1.98 (1.13, 3.45) during the index pregnancy; 2.11 (1.17, 3.78) during breastfeeding period; 2.17 (1.28, 3.66) after birth; and 2.06 (1.24, 3.42) for global exposure.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>This is the first study in which an OEI was used to assess a father's occupational exposure to carcinogenic agents as a risk factor for the development of childhood AL in his offspring. From our results, we conclude that children whose fathers have been exposed to a high level of carcinogenic agents seem to have a greater risk of developing acute leukemia. However, confounding factors cannot be disregarded due to an incomplete control for confounding.</p

Laparoscopy in management of appendicitis in high-, middle-, and low-income countries: a multicenter, prospective, cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Appendicitis is the most common abdominal surgical emergency worldwide. Differences between high- and low-income settings in the availability of laparoscopic appendectomy, alternative management choices, and outcomes are poorly described. The aim was to identify variation in surgical management and outcomes of appendicitis within low-, middle-, and high-Human Development Index (HDI) countries worldwide. METHODS: This is a multicenter, international prospective cohort study. Consecutive sampling of patients undergoing emergency appendectomy over 6 months was conducted. Follow-up lasted 30 days. RESULTS: 4546 patients from 52 countries underwent appendectomy (2499 high-, 1540 middle-, and 507 low-HDI groups). Surgical site infection (SSI) rates were higher in low-HDI (OR 2.57, 95% CI 1.33-4.99, p = 0.005) but not middle-HDI countries (OR 1.38, 95% CI 0.76-2.52, p = 0.291), compared with high-HDI countries after adjustment. A laparoscopic approach was common in high-HDI countries (1693/2499, 67.7%), but infrequent in low-HDI (41/507, 8.1%) and middle-HDI (132/1540, 8.6%) groups. After accounting for case-mix, laparoscopy was still associated with fewer overall complications (OR 0.55, 95% CI 0.42-0.71, p < 0.001) and SSIs (OR 0.22, 95% CI 0.14-0.33, p < 0.001). In propensity-score matched groups within low-/middle-HDI countries, laparoscopy was still associated with fewer overall complications (OR 0.23 95% CI 0.11-0.44) and SSI (OR 0.21 95% CI 0.09-0.45). CONCLUSION: A laparoscopic approach is associated with better outcomes and availability appears to differ by country HDI. Despite the profound clinical, operational, and financial barriers to its widespread introduction, laparoscopy could significantly improve outcomes for patients in low-resource environments. TRIAL REGISTRATION: NCT02179112

Multi-messenger observations of a binary neutron star merger

On 2017 August 17 a binary neutron star coalescence candidate (later designated GW170817) with merger time 12:41:04 UTC was observed through gravitational waves by the Advanced LIGO and Advanced Virgo detectors. The Fermi Gamma-ray Burst Monitor independently detected a gamma-ray burst (GRB 170817A) with a time delay of ~1.7 s with respect to the merger time. From the gravitational-wave signal, the source was initially localized to a sky region of 31 deg2 at a luminosity distance of 40+8-8 Mpc and with component masses consistent with neutron stars. The component masses were later measured to be in the range 0.86 to 2.26 Mo. An extensive observing campaign was launched across the electromagnetic spectrum leading to the discovery of a bright optical transient (SSS17a, now with the IAU identification of AT 2017gfo) in NGC 4993 (at ~40 Mpc) less than 11 hours after the merger by the One- Meter, Two Hemisphere (1M2H) team using the 1 m Swope Telescope. The optical transient was independently detected by multiple teams within an hour. Subsequent observations targeted the object and its environment. Early ultraviolet observations revealed a blue transient that faded within 48 hours. Optical and infrared observations showed a redward evolution over ~10 days. Following early non-detections, X-ray and radio emission were discovered at the transient’s position ~9 and ~16 days, respectively, after the merger. Both the X-ray and radio emission likely arise from a physical process that is distinct from the one that generates the UV/optical/near-infrared emission. No ultra-high-energy gamma-rays and no neutrino candidates consistent with the source were found in follow-up searches. These observations support the hypothesis that GW170817 was produced by the merger of two neutron stars in NGC4993 followed by a short gamma-ray burst (GRB 170817A) and a kilonova/macronova powered by the radioactive decay of r-process nuclei synthesized in the ejecta

Pooled analysis of WHO Surgical Safety Checklist use and mortality after emergency laparotomy

Background The World Health Organization (WHO) Surgical Safety Checklist has fostered safe practice for 10 years, yet its place in emergency surgery has not been assessed on a global scale. The aim of this study was to evaluate reported checklist use in emergency settings and examine the relationship with perioperative mortality in patients who had emergency laparotomy. Methods In two multinational cohort studies, adults undergoing emergency laparotomy were compared with those having elective gastrointestinal surgery. Relationships between reported checklist use and mortality were determined using multivariable logistic regression and bootstrapped simulation. Results Of 12 296 patients included from 76 countries, 4843 underwent emergency laparotomy. After adjusting for patient and disease factors, checklist use before emergency laparotomy was more common in countries with a high Human Development Index (HDI) (2455 of 2741, 89.6 per cent) compared with that in countries with a middle (753 of 1242, 60.6 per cent; odds ratio (OR) 0.17, 95 per cent c.i. 0.14 to 0.21, P <0001) or low (363 of 860, 422 per cent; OR 008, 007 to 010, P <0.001) HDI. Checklist use was less common in elective surgery than for emergency laparotomy in high-HDI countries (risk difference -94 (95 per cent c.i. -11.9 to -6.9) per cent; P <0001), but the relationship was reversed in low-HDI countries (+121 (+7.0 to +173) per cent; P <0001). In multivariable models, checklist use was associated with a lower 30-day perioperative mortality (OR 0.60, 0.50 to 073; P <0.001). The greatest absolute benefit was seen for emergency surgery in low- and middle-HDI countries. Conclusion Checklist use in emergency laparotomy was associated with a significantly lower perioperative mortality rate. Checklist use in low-HDI countries was half that in high-HDI countries.Peer reviewe

Search for the production of W^{\pm} W^{\pm} W^{\mp} events at \sqrt{s} = 13 TeV

A search for the production of events containing three W bosons predicted by the standard model is reported. The search is based on a data sample of proton-proton collisions at a center-of-mass energy of 13 TeV recorded by the CMS experiment at the CERN LHC and corresponding to a total integrated luminosity of 35.9 fb^{-1}. The search is performed in final states with three leptons (electrons or muons), or with two same-charge leptons plus two jets. The observed (expected) significance of the signal for W^{\pm} W^{\pm} W^{\mp} production is 0.60 (1.78) standard deviations, and the ratio of the measured signal yield to that expected from the standard model is 0.34_{-0.34}^{+0.62}. Limits are placed on three anomalous quartic gauge couplings and on the production of massive axionlike particles

Evaluation of appendicitis risk prediction models in adults with suspected appendicitis

Background Appendicitis is the most common general surgical emergency worldwide, but its diagnosis remains challenging. The aim of this study was to determine whether existing risk prediction models can reliably identify patients presenting to hospital in the UK with acute right iliac fossa (RIF) pain who are at low risk of appendicitis. Methods A systematic search was completed to identify all existing appendicitis risk prediction models. Models were validated using UK data from an international prospective cohort study that captured consecutive patients aged 16–45 years presenting to hospital with acute RIF in March to June 2017. The main outcome was best achievable model specificity (proportion of patients who did not have appendicitis correctly classified as low risk) whilst maintaining a failure rate below 5 per cent (proportion of patients identified as low risk who actually had appendicitis). Results Some 5345 patients across 154 UK hospitals were identified, of which two‐thirds (3613 of 5345, 67·6 per cent) were women. Women were more than twice as likely to undergo surgery with removal of a histologically normal appendix (272 of 964, 28·2 per cent) than men (120 of 993, 12·1 per cent) (relative risk 2·33, 95 per cent c.i. 1·92 to 2·84; P < 0·001). Of 15 validated risk prediction models, the Adult Appendicitis Score performed best (cut‐off score 8 or less, specificity 63·1 per cent, failure rate 3·7 per cent). The Appendicitis Inflammatory Response Score performed best for men (cut‐off score 2 or less, specificity 24·7 per cent, failure rate 2·4 per cent). Conclusion Women in the UK had a disproportionate risk of admission without surgical intervention and had high rates of normal appendicectomy. Risk prediction models to support shared decision‐making by identifying adults in the UK at low risk of appendicitis were identified

Global variation in anastomosis and end colostomy formation following left-sided colorectal resection

Background End colostomy rates following colorectal resection vary across institutions in high-income settings, being influenced by patient, disease, surgeon and system factors. This study aimed to assess global variation in end colostomy rates after left-sided colorectal resection. Methods This study comprised an analysis of GlobalSurg-1 and -2 international, prospective, observational cohort studies (2014, 2016), including consecutive adult patients undergoing elective or emergency left-sided colorectal resection within discrete 2-week windows. Countries were grouped into high-, middle- and low-income tertiles according to the United Nations Human Development Index (HDI). Factors associated with colostomy formation versus primary anastomosis were explored using a multilevel, multivariable logistic regression model. Results In total, 1635 patients from 242 hospitals in 57 countries undergoing left-sided colorectal resection were included: 113 (6·9 per cent) from low-HDI, 254 (15·5 per cent) from middle-HDI and 1268 (77·6 per cent) from high-HDI countries. There was a higher proportion of patients with perforated disease (57·5, 40·9 and 35·4 per cent; P < 0·001) and subsequent use of end colostomy (52·2, 24·8 and 18·9 per cent; P < 0·001) in low- compared with middle- and high-HDI settings. The association with colostomy use in low-HDI settings persisted (odds ratio (OR) 3·20, 95 per cent c.i. 1·35 to 7·57; P = 0·008) after risk adjustment for malignant disease (OR 2·34, 1·65 to 3·32; P < 0·001), emergency surgery (OR 4·08, 2·73 to 6·10; P < 0·001), time to operation at least 48 h (OR 1·99, 1·28 to 3·09; P = 0·002) and disease perforation (OR 4·00, 2·81 to 5·69; P < 0·001). Conclusion Global differences existed in the proportion of patients receiving end stomas after left-sided colorectal resection based on income, which went beyond case mix alone

Search for lepton flavour violating decays of a neutral heavy Higgs boson to μτ and eτ in proton-proton collisions at s√ = 13 TeV

A search for lepton flavour violating decays of a neutral non-standard-model Higgs boson in the μτ and eτ decay modes is presented. The search is based on proton-proton collisions at a center of mass energy s√ = 13 TeV collected with the CMS detector in 2016, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 35.9 fb−1. The τ leptons are reconstructed in the leptonic and hadronic decay modes. No signal is observed in the mass range 200–900 GeV. At 95% confidence level, the observed (expected) upper limits on the production cross section multiplied by the branching fraction vary from 51.9 (57.4) fb to 1.6 (2.1) fb for the μτ and from 94.1 (91.6) fb to 2.3 (2.3) fb for the eτ decay modes

Search for excited leptons in final states in proton-proton collisions at root s=13 TeV

A search is presented for excited electrons and muons in ℓℓγ final states at the LHC. The search is based on a data sample corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 35.9 fb−1 of proton-proton collisions at a center-of-mass energy of 13 TeV, collected with the CMS detector in 2016. This is the first search for excited leptons at s√ = 13 TeV. The observation is consistent with the standard model background prediction, and the most stringent exclusion limits to date are set on the excited lepton mass and the compositeness scale, at 95% confidence level. Excited electrons and muons are excluded for masses below 3.9 and 3.8 TeV, respectively, under the assumption that the excited lepton mass equals the compositeness scale. The best observed limit on the compositeness scale is obtained with an excited lepton mass of around 1.0 TeV, excluding values below 25 TeV for both excited electrons and muons