ElimLin Algorithm Revisited

ElimLin is a simple algorithm for solving polynomial systems of multivariate equations over small finite fields. It was initially proposed as a single tool by Courtois to attack DES. It can reveal some hidden linear equations existing in the ideal generated by the system. We report a number of key theorems on ElimLin. Our main result is to characterize ElimLin in terms of a sequence of intersections of vector spaces. It implies that the linear space generated by ElimLin is invariant with respect to any variable ordering during elimination and substitution. This can be seen as surprising given the fact that it eliminates variables. On the contrary, monomial ordering is a crucial factor in Gröbner basis algorithms such as F4. Moreover, we prove that the result of ElimLin is invariant with respect to any affine bijective variable change. Analyzing an overdefined dense system of equations, we argue that to obtain more linear equations in the succeeding iteration in ElimLin some restrictions should be satisfied. Finally, we compare the security of LBlock and MIBS block ciphers with respect to algebraic attacks and propose several attacks on Courtois Toy Cipher version 2 (CTC2) with distinct parameters using ElimLin

Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks, 1990-2015: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

Background: The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 provides an up-to-date synthesis of the evidence for risk factor exposure and the attributable burden of disease. By providing national and subnational assessments spanning the past 25 years, this study can inform debates on the importance of addressing risks in context. Methods: We used the comparative risk assessment framework developed for previous iterations of the Global Burden of Disease Study to estimate attributable deaths, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and trends in exposure by age group, sex, year, and geography for 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks from 1990 to 2015. This study included 388 risk-outcome pairs that met World Cancer Research Fund-defined criteria for convincing or probable evidence. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from randomised controlled trials, cohorts, pooled cohorts, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. We developed a metric that allows comparisons of exposure across risk factors—the summary exposure value. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk level, we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We decomposed trends in attributable burden into contributions from population growth, population age structure, risk exposure, and risk-deleted cause-specific DALY rates. We characterised risk exposure in relation to a Socio-demographic Index (SDI). Findings: Between 1990 and 2015, global exposure to unsafe sanitation, household air pollution, childhood underweight, childhood stunting, and smoking each decreased by more than 25%. Global exposure for several occupational risks, high body-mass index (BMI), and drug use increased by more than 25% over the same period. All risks jointly evaluated in 2015 accounted for 57·8% (95% CI 56·6–58·8) of global deaths and 41·2% (39·8–42·8) of DALYs. In 2015, the ten largest contributors to global DALYs among Level 3 risks were high systolic blood pressure (211·8 million [192·7 million to 231·1 million] global DALYs), smoking (148·6 million [134·2 million to 163·1 million]), high fasting plasma glucose (143·1 million [125·1 million to 163·5 million]), high BMI (120·1 million [83·8 million to 158·4 million]), childhood undernutrition (113·3 million [103·9 million to 123·4 million]), ambient particulate matter (103·1 million [90·8 million to 115·1 million]), high total cholesterol (88·7 million [74·6 million to 105·7 million]), household air pollution (85·6 million [66·7 million to 106·1 million]), alcohol use (85·0 million [77·2 million to 93·0 million]), and diets high in sodium (83·0 million [49·3 million to 127·5 million]). From 1990 to 2015, attributable DALYs declined for micronutrient deficiencies, childhood undernutrition, unsafe sanitation and water, and household air pollution; reductions in risk-deleted DALY rates rather than reductions in exposure drove these declines. Rising exposure contributed to notable increases in attributable DALYs from high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, occupational carcinogens, and drug use. Environmental risks and childhood undernutrition declined steadily with SDI; low physical activity, high BMI, and high fasting plasma glucose increased with SDI. In 119 countries, metabolic risks, such as high BMI and fasting plasma glucose, contributed the most attributable DALYs in 2015. Regionally, smoking still ranked among the leading five risk factors for attributable DALYs in 109 countries; childhood underweight and unsafe sex remained primary drivers of early death and disability in much of sub-Saharan Africa. Interpretation: Declines in some key environmental risks have contributed to declines in critical infectious diseases. Some risks appear to be invariant to SDI. Increasing risks, including high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, drug use, and some occupational exposures, contribute to rising burden from some conditions, but also provide opportunities for intervention. Some highly preventable risks, such as smoking, remain major causes of attributable DALYs, even as exposure is declining. Public policy makers need to pay attention to the risks that are increasingly major contributors to global burden. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Global, regional, and national age-sex-specific mortality and life expectancy, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

BACKGROUND: Assessments of age-specific mortality and life expectancy have been done by the UN Population Division, Department of Economics and Social Affairs (UNPOP), the United States Census Bureau, WHO, and as part of previous iterations of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD). Previous iterations of the GBD used population estimates from UNPOP, which were not derived in a way that was internally consistent with the estimates of the numbers of deaths in the GBD. The present iteration of the GBD, GBD 2017, improves on previous assessments and provides timely estimates of the mortality experience of populations globally. METHODS: The GBD uses all available data to produce estimates of mortality rates between 1950 and 2017 for 23 age groups, both sexes, and 918 locations, including 195 countries and territories and subnational locations for 16 countries. Data used include vital registration systems, sample registration systems, household surveys (complete birth histories, summary birth histories, sibling histories), censuses (summary birth histories, household deaths), and Demographic Surveillance Sites. In total, this analysis used 8259 data sources. Estimates of the probability of death between birth and the age of 5 years and between ages 15 and 60 years are generated and then input into a model life table system to produce complete life tables for all locations and years. Fatal discontinuities and mortality due to HIV/AIDS are analysed separately and then incorporated into the estimation. We analyse the relationship between age-specific mortality and development status using the Socio-demographic Index, a composite measure based on fertility under the age of 25 years, education, and income. There are four main methodological improvements in GBD 2017 compared with GBD 2016: 622 additional data sources have been incorporated; new estimates of population, generated by the GBD study, are used; statistical methods used in different components of the analysis have been further standardised and improved; and the analysis has been extended backwards in time by two decades to start in 1950. FINDINGS: Globally, 18·7% (95% uncertainty interval 18·4–19·0) of deaths were registered in 1950 and that proportion has been steadily increasing since, with 58·8% (58·2–59·3) of all deaths being registered in 2015. At the global level, between 1950 and 2017, life expectancy increased from 48·1 years (46·5–49·6) to 70·5 years (70·1–70·8) for men and from 52·9 years (51·7–54·0) to 75·6 years (75·3–75·9) for women. Despite this overall progress, there remains substantial variation in life expectancy at birth in 2017, which ranges from 49·1 years (46·5–51·7) for men in the Central African Republic to 87·6 years (86·9–88·1) among women in Singapore. The greatest progress across age groups was for children younger than 5 years; under-5 mortality dropped from 216·0 deaths (196·3–238·1) per 1000 livebirths in 1950 to 38·9 deaths (35·6–42·83) per 1000 livebirths in 2017, with huge reductions across countries. Nevertheless, there were still 5·4 million (5·2–5·6) deaths among children younger than 5 years in the world in 2017. Progress has been less pronounced and more variable for adults, especially for adult males, who had stagnant or increasing mortality rates in several countries. The gap between male and female life expectancy between 1950 and 2017, while relatively stable at the global level, shows distinctive patterns across super-regions and has consistently been the largest in central Europe, eastern Europe, and central Asia, and smallest in south Asia. Performance was also variable across countries and time in observed mortality rates compared with those expected on the basis of development. INTERPRETATION: This analysis of age-sex-specific mortality shows that there are remarkably complex patterns in population mortality across countries. The findings of this study highlight global successes, such as the large decline in under-5 mortality, which reflects significant local, national, and global commitment and investment over several decades. However, they also bring attention to mortality patterns that are a cause for concern, particularly among adult men and, to a lesser extent, women, whose mortality rates have stagnated in many countries over the time period of this study, and in some cases are increasing

Linearity within the SMS4 block cipher

We present several new observations on the SMS4 block cipher, and discuss their cryptographic significance. The crucial observation is the existence of fixed points and also of simple linear relationships between the bits of the input and output words for each component of the round functions for some input words. This implies that the non-linear function T of SMS4 does not appear random and that the linear transformation provides poor diffusion. Furthermore, the branch number of the linear transformation in the key scheduling algorithm is shown to be less than optimal. The main security implication of these observations is that the round function is not always non-linear. Due to this linearity, it is possible to reduce the number of effective rounds of SMS4 by four. We also investigate the susceptibility of SMS4 to further cryptanalysis. Finally, we demonstrate a successful differential attack on a slightly modified variant of SMS4. These findings raise serious questions on the security provided by SMS4

Ice marginal dynamics during surge activity, Kuannersuit Glacier, Disko Island, West Greenland

The Kuannersuit Glacier surged 11 km between 1995 and 1998. The surge resulted in the formation of an ice cored thrust moraine complex constructed by subglacial and proglacial glaciotectonic processes. Four main thrust zones are evident in the glacier snout area with phases of compressional folding and thrusting followed by hydrofracture in response to the build-up of compressional stresses and the aquicludal nature of submarginal permafrost and naled. Various types of stratified debris-rich ice facies occur within the marginal zone: The first (Facies I) comprises laterally continuous strata of ice with sorted sediment accumulations, and is reworked and thrust naled ice. The second is laterally discontinuous stratified debris-rich ice with distinct tectonic structures, and is derived through subglacial extensional deformation and localised regelation (Facies II), whilst the third type is characterised by reworked and brecciated ice associated with the reworking and entrainment of meteoric ice (Facies III). Hydrofracture dykes and sills (Facies IV) cross-cut the marginal ice cored thrust moraines, with their sub-vertically frozen internal contact boundaries and sedimentary structures, suggesting supercooling operated as high-pressure evacuation of water occurred during thrusting, but this is not related to the formation of basal stratified debris-rich ice. Linear distributions of sorted fines transverse to ice flow, and small stratified sediment ridges that vertically cross-cut the ice surface up-ice of the thrust zone relate to sediment migration along crevasse traces and fluvial infilling of crevasses. From a palaeoglaciological viewpoint, marginal glacier tectonics, ice sediment content and sediment delivery mechanisms combine to control the development of this polythermal surge valley landsystem. The bulldozing of proglacial sediments and the folding and thrusting of naled leads to the initial development of the outer zone of the moraine complex. This becomes buried in bulldozed outwash sediment and well-sorted fines through surface ablation of naled. Up-ice of this, the heavily thrust margin becomes buried in sediment melted out from basal debris-rich ice and subglacial diamicts routed along thrusts. These mechanisms combine to deliver sediment to supraglacial localities, and promote the initial preservation of structurally controlled moraines through insulation, and the later development of kettled dead ice terrain