Using the past to constrain the future: how the palaeorecord can improve estimates of global warming

Climate sensitivity is defined as the change in global mean equilibrium temperature after a doubling of atmospheric CO2 concentration and provides a simple measure of global warming. An early estimate of climate sensitivity, 1.5-4.5{\deg}C, has changed little subsequently, including the latest assessment by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The persistence of such large uncertainties in this simple measure casts doubt on our understanding of the mechanisms of climate change and our ability to predict the response of the climate system to future perturbations. This has motivated continued attempts to constrain the range with climate data, alone or in conjunction with models. The majority of studies use data from the instrumental period (post-1850) but recent work has made use of information about the large climate changes experienced in the geological past. In this review, we first outline approaches that estimate climate sensitivity using instrumental climate observations and then summarise attempts to use the record of climate change on geological timescales. We examine the limitations of these studies and suggest ways in which the power of the palaeoclimate record could be better used to reduce uncertainties in our predictions of climate sensitivity.Comment: The final, definitive version of this paper has been published in Progress in Physical Geography, 31(5), 2007 by SAGE Publications Ltd, All rights reserved. \c{opyright} 2007 Edwards, Crucifix and Harriso

Atomic X-ray Spectroscopy of Accreting Black Holes

Current astrophysical research suggests that the most persistently luminous objects in the Universe are powered by the flow of matter through accretion disks onto black holes. Accretion disk systems are observed to emit copious radiation across the electromagnetic spectrum, each energy band providing access to rather distinct regimes of physical conditions and geometric scale. X-ray emission probes the innermost regions of the accretion disk, where relativistic effects prevail. While this has been known for decades, it also has been acknowledged that inferring physical conditions in the relativistic regime from the behavior of the X-ray continuum is problematic and not satisfactorily constraining. With the discovery in the 1990s of iron X-ray lines bearing signatures of relativistic distortion came the hope that such emission would more firmly constrain models of disk accretion near black holes, as well as provide observational criteria by which to test general relativity in the strong field limit. Here we provide an introduction to this phenomenon. While the presentation is intended to be primarily tutorial in nature, we aim also to acquaint the reader with trends in current research. To achieve these ends, we present the basic applications of general relativity that pertain to X-ray spectroscopic observations of black hole accretion disk systems, focusing on the Schwarzschild and Kerr solutions to the Einstein field equations. To this we add treatments of the fundamental concepts associated with the theoretical and modeling aspects of accretion disks, as well as relevant topics from observational and theoretical X-ray spectroscopy.Comment: 63 pages, 21 figures, Einstein Centennial Review Article, Canadian Journal of Physics, in pres

Evidence for fire in the pliocene arctic in response to amplified temperature

The mid-Pliocene is a valuable time interval for investigating equilibrium climate at current atmospheric CO2 concentrations because atmospheric CO2 concentrations are thought to have been compara

The challenges of genome-wide interaction studies: Lessons to learn from the analysis of HDL blood levels

Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have revealed 74 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) associated with high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL) blood levels. This study is, to our knowledge, the first genome-wide interaction study (GWIS) to identify SNP6SNP interactions associated with HDL levels. We performed a GWIS in the Rotterdam Study (RS) cohort I (RS-I) using the GLIDE tool which leverages the massively parallel computing power of Graphics Processing Units (GPUs) to perform linear regression on all genome-wide pairs of SNPs. By performing a meta-analysis together with Rotterdam Study cohorts II and III (RS-II and RS-III), we were able to filter 181 interaction terms with a p-value, 1 · 1028 that replicated in the two independent cohorts. We were not able to replicate any of these interaction term in the AGES, ARIC, CHS, ERF, FHS and NFBC-66 cohorts (Ntotal = 30, 011) when adjusting for multiple testing. Our GWIS resulted in the consistent finding of a possible interaction between rs774801 in ARMC8 (ENSG00000114098) and rs12442098 in SPATA8 (ENSG00000185594) being associated with HDL levels. However, p-values do not reach the preset Bonferroni correction of the p-values. Our study suggest that even for highly genetically determined traits such as HDL the sample sizes needed to detect SNP6SNP interactions are large and the 2-step filtering approaches do not yield a solution. Here we present our analysis plan and our reservations concerning GWIS

Clonal Hematopoiesis Is Associated with Higher Risk of Stroke

Background and Purpose: Clonal hematopoiesis of indeterminate potential (CHIP) is a novel age-related risk factor for cardiovascular disease-related morbidity and mortality. The association of CHIP with risk of incident ischemic stroke was reported previously in an exploratory analysis including a small number of incident stroke cases without replication and lack of stroke subphenotyping. The purpose of this study was to discover whether CHIP is a risk factor for ischemic or hemorrhagic stroke. Methods: We utilized plasma genome sequence data of blood DNA to identify CHIP in 78 752 individuals from 8 prospective cohorts and biobanks. We then assessed the association of CHIP and commonly mutated individual CHIP driver genes (DNMT3A, TET2, and ASXL1) with any stroke, ischemic stroke, and hemorrhagic stroke. Results: CHIP was associated with an increased risk of total stroke (hazard ratio, 1.14 [95% CI, 1.03-1.27]; P=0.01) after adjustment for age, sex, and race. We observed associations with CHIP with risk of hemorrhagic stroke (hazard ratio, 1.24 [95% CI, 1.01-1.51]; P=0.04) and with small vessel ischemic stroke subtypes. In gene-specific association results, TET2 showed the strongest association with total stroke and ischemic stroke, whereas DMNT3A and TET2 were each associated with increased risk of hemorrhagic stroke. Conclusions: CHIP is associated with an increased risk of stroke, particularly with hemorrhagic and small vessel ischemic stroke. Future studies clarifying the relationship between CHIP and subtypes of stroke are needed

Large expert-curated database for benchmarking document similarity detection in biomedical literature search

Document recommendation systems for locating relevant literature have mostly relied on methods developed a decade ago. This is largely due to the lack of a large offline gold-standard benchmark of relevant documents that cover a variety of research fields such that newly developed literature search techniques can be compared, improved and translated into practice. To overcome this bottleneck, we have established the RElevant LIterature SearcH consortium consisting of more than 1500 scientists from 84 countries, who have collectively annotated the relevance of over 180 000 PubMed-listed articles with regard to their respective seed (input) article/s. The majority of annotations were contributed by highly experienced, original authors of the seed articles. The collected data cover 76% of all unique PubMed Medical Subject Headings descriptors. No systematic biases were observed across different experience levels, research fields or time spent on annotations. More importantly, annotations of the same document pairs contributed by different scientists were highly concordant. We further show that the three representative baseline methods used to generate recommended articles for evaluation (Okapi Best Matching 25, Term Frequency-Inverse Document Frequency and PubMed Related Articles) had similar overall performances. Additionally, we found that these methods each tend to produce distinct collections of recommended articles, suggesting that a hybrid method may be required to completely capture all relevant articles. The established database server located at https://relishdb.ict.griffith.edu.au is freely available for the downloading of annotation data and the blind testing of new methods. We expect that this benchmark will be useful for stimulating the development of new powerful techniques for title and title/abstract-based search engines for relevant articles in biomedical research.Peer reviewe

Mendelian randomization supports bidirectional causality between telomere length and clonal hematopoiesis of indeterminate potential

Human genetic studies support an inverse causal relationship between leukocyte telomere length (LTL) and coronary artery disease (CAD), but directionally mixed effects for LTL and diverse malignancies. Clonal hematopoiesis of indeterminate potential (CHIP), characterized by expansion of hematopoietic cells bearing leukemogenic mutations, predisposes both hematologic malignancy and CAD. TERT (which encodes telomerase reverse transcriptase) is the most significantly associated germline locus for CHIP in genome-wide association studies. Here, we investigated the relationship between CHIP, LTL, and CAD in the Trans-Omics for Precision Medicine (TOPMed) program (n = 63,302) and UK Biobank (n = 47,080). Bidirectional Mendelian randomization studies were consistent with longer genetically imputed LTL increasing propensity to develop CHIP, but CHIP then, in turn, hastens to shorten measured LTL (mLTL). We also demonstrated evidence of modest mediation between CHIP and CAD by mLTL. Our data promote an understanding of potential causal relationships across CHIP and LTL toward prevention of CAD

Pleiotropy among common genetic loci identified for cardiometabolic disorders and C-reactive protein.

Pleiotropic genetic variants have independent effects on different phenotypes. C-reactive protein (CRP) is associated with several cardiometabolic phenotypes. Shared genetic backgrounds may partially underlie these associations. We conducted a genome-wide analysis to identify the shared genetic background of inflammation and cardiometabolic phenotypes using published genome-wide association studies (GWAS). We also evaluated whether the pleiotropic effects of such loci were biological or mediated in nature. First, we examined whether 283 common variants identified for 10 cardiometabolic phenotypes in GWAS are associated with CRP level. Second, we tested whether 18 variants identified for serum CRP are associated with 10 cardiometabolic phenotypes. We used a Bonferroni corrected p-value of 1.1×10-04 (0.05/463) as a threshold of significance. We evaluated the independent pleiotropic effect on both phenotypes using individual level data from the Women Genome Health Study. Evaluating the genetic overlap between inflammation and cardiometabolic phenotypes, we found 13 pleiotropic regions. Additional analyses showed that 6 regions (APOC1, HNF1A, IL6R, PPP1R3B, HNF4A and IL1F10) appeared to have a pleiotropic effect on CRP independent of the effects on the cardiometabolic phenotypes. These included loci where individuals carrying the risk allele for CRP encounter higher lipid levels and risk of type 2 diabetes. In addition, 5 regions (GCKR, PABPC4, BCL7B, FTO and TMEM18) had an effect on CRP largely mediated through the cardiometabolic phenotypes. In conclusion, our results show genetic pleiotropy among inflammation and cardiometabolic phenotypes. In addition to reverse causation, our data suggests that pleiotropic genetic variants partially underlie the association between CRP and cardiometabolic phenotypes