The PREDICTS database: a global database of how local terrestrial biodiversity responds to human impacts

Biodiversity continues to decline in the face of increasing anthropogenic pressures such as habitat destruction, exploitation, pollution and introduction of alien species. Existing global databases of species’ threat status or population time series are dominated by charismatic species. The collation of datasets with broad taxonomic and biogeographic extents, and that support computation of a range of biodiversity indicators, is necessary to enable better understanding of historical declines and to project – and avert – future declines. We describe and assess a new database of more than 1.6 million samples from 78 countries representing over 28,000 species, collated from existing spatial comparisons of local-scale biodiversity exposed to different intensities and types of anthropogenic pressures, from terrestrial sites around the world. The database contains measurements taken in 208 (of 814) ecoregions, 13 (of 14) biomes, 25 (of 35) biodiversity hotspots and 16 (of 17) megadiverse countries. The database contains more than 1% of the total number of all species described, and more than 1% of the described species within many taxonomic groups – including flowering plants, gymnosperms, birds, mammals, reptiles, amphibians, beetles, lepidopterans and hymenopterans. The dataset, which is still being added to, is therefore already considerably larger and more representative than those used by previous quantitative models of biodiversity trends and responses. The database is being assembled as part of the PREDICTS project (Projecting Responses of Ecological Diversity In Changing Terrestrial Systems – www.predicts.org.uk). We make site-level summary data available alongside this article. The full database will be publicly available in 2015

Modelling and projecting the response of local assemblage composition to land use change across Colombia

Understanding the impact of land use change within assemblages is fundamental to mitigation policies at local and regional scale. Here, we aim to quantify how site-level terrestrial assemblages are responding to land use change in Colombia a mega-diverse country and to project future biodiversity under different scenarios of land use change associated with climate change policies. Location: Colombia (northern South America). Methods: We collated original biodiversity data from 17 publications (285 sites) that examined how human impact affects terrestrial biodiversity in Colombia. From each site we estimated compositional intactness (i.e. compositional similarity to undisturbed sites). We fitted generalized linear mixed-effects models to estimate how these measures of local biodiversity vary across land use habitats. Using space-for-time substitution, we applied our estimates to hindcast biodiversity changes since 1500 and project future changes under climate change policies of the four representative concentration pathways (RCPs). Results: Assemblages in urban, cropland and pasture sites were compositionally very different from those in primary vegetation. We infer that average compositional intactness has been reduced by 18% across Colombia to date, with strong regional variation. The best RCP scenario for future biodiversity is GCAM-RCP4.5, a path that favours the expansion of secondary forests under a strong carbon market; while the worst is MESSAGE-RCP8.5, ‘the business-as-usual’ scenario. Main conclusions: Land use change has driven an increasing change in the composition of ecological assemblages in Colombia. By 2095, the implementation of carbon markets policy of climate change from GCAM-RCP4.5 could mitigate these changes in community composition. In contrast, the business-as-usual scenario MESSAGE-RCP8.5 predicts a steep community change placing the quality of ecosystems at risk

The PREDICTS database: a global database of how local terrestrial biodiversity responds to human impacts.

Biodiversity continues to decline in the face of increasing anthropogenic pressures such as habitat destruction, exploitation, pollution and introduction of alien species. Existing global databases of species' threat status or population time series are dominated by charismatic species. The collation of datasets with broad taxonomic and biogeographic extents, and that support computation of a range of biodiversity indicators, is necessary to enable better understanding of historical declines and to project - and avert - future declines. We describe and assess a new database of more than 1.6 million samples from 78 countries representing over 28,000 species, collated from existing spatial comparisons of local-scale biodiversity exposed to different intensities and types of anthropogenic pressures, from terrestrial sites around the world. The database contains measurements taken in 208 (of 814) ecoregions, 13 (of 14) biomes, 25 (of 35) biodiversity hotspots and 16 (of 17) megadiverse countries. The database contains more than 1\% of the total number of all species described, and more than 1\% of the described species within many taxonomic groups - including flowering plants, gymnosperms, birds, mammals, reptiles, amphibians, beetles, lepidopterans and hymenopterans. The dataset, which is still being added to, is therefore already considerably larger and more representative than those used by previous quantitative models of biodiversity trends and responses. The database is being assembled as part of the PREDICTS project (Projecting Responses of Ecological Diversity In Changing Terrestrial Systems - http://www.predicts.org.uk). We make site-level summary data available alongside this article. The full database will be publicly available in 2015

Biodiversity 2016. Status and Trends of Colombian Continental Biodiversity

This third volume of the annual report on biodiversity in Colombia continues the editorial line that begun in 2014. Using novel analytical and graphic proposals, these reports have the goal of communicating the contents to a broad public, making it available for discussion without sacrificing the quality of information. The challenge of communication continues to be a major part of the institutional project, and the new languages with which we are learning to communicate with society and other institutions are an experiment that we expect to be increasingly gratifying. The report for 2017 is already under construction and it counts on new digital technologies so the power of a colombian vital connection may be entirely expressed. The included content evidences that we are still far away from having a systematic follow-up about most of the topics related to the management of biodiversity and ecosystem services, which is the only way to evaluate the effectiveness of policies and investments made by society. In fact, a limitation that is recognized is that of identifying positive or negative changes that affect different levels of organization of life on this planet; therefore, our global navigation route of the Aichi targets is still to be verified. An additional purpose of this process includes the invitation of all Colombians to contribute in constructing and maintaining basic monitoring indicators for management since it is impossible to identify long-term trends of flora and fauna in the country without the support of institutions, researchers, and citizens. This challenge is immense in a megadiverse country such as Colombia. For this reason, the report will continue to open its pages to experts, and even indigenous peoples or local communities, for them to present their perspectives about environmental change and its effects on biodiversity in a systematic and documented manner. This has the objective of stimulating the commitment of everyone in the management of biodiversity and ecosystem services. The only way of overcoming the risk of extinction is through the active process of social learning in which all sectors assume a part of the complex responsibility in protecting the forms of life of the country, a roughly counted tenth of all creatures on Earth. I thank all the people that contributed in this Report, those who have supported us in the phases of production, and all readers and users, who are the ultimate judges of its utility.Bogotá, D. C

Biodiversidad 2016. Estado y Tendencias de la Biodiversidad Continental de Colombia

Esta tercera entrega del reporte anual de la biodiversidad en Colombia profundiza en la línea editorial iniciada el año 2014 mediante nuevas propuestas analíticas y gráficas, con la intención de garantizar que la información llegue a todos los públicos y pueda ser discutida de manera amena sin sacrificio de calidad. La apuesta comunicativa sigue siendo central en el proyecto institucional y los nuevos lenguajes con los que estamos aprendiendo a conversar con la sociedad y las instituciones son un experimento que esperamos sea cada vez más satisfactorio: ya estamos construyendo la versión 2017 con el apoyo de las nuevas tecnologías digitales de manera que la potencia de la conexión vital colombiana se exprese en toda su capacidad. Por los contenidos es evidente que aún distamos mucho de tener una capacidad de seguimiento sistemático para la mayoría de temas relativos a la gestión de la biodiversidad y los servicios ecosistémicos, la única manera de evaluar si las medidas de política y las inversiones que realiza la sociedad están teniendo los efectos deseados. De hecho, parte de las limitaciones reconocidas por robustamente los cambios positivos o negativos que afectan los diferentes niveles de organización de la vida planetaria, por lo cual las mismas metas de Aichi, nuestra carta de navegación global, están pendientes de verificación. Un propósito adicional de este proceso es la invitación a todos los colombianos para contribuir con la construcción y alimentación de los indicadores básicos de seguimiento a la gestión, ya que es imposible identificar las tendencias de largo plazo en que están inmersas la flora y fauna colombianas sin el apoyo de las instituciones, los investigadores y los ciudadanos: en el país de la megadiversidad, el reto es inmenso. Por este motivo, este reporte irá abriendo sus páginas a expertos, incluso indígenas o de comunidades locales, para que presenten de manera sistemática y documentada sus perspectivas del cambio ambiental y sus efectos en la biodiversidad, con el ánimo de promover el compromiso de todos en su gestión. La única manera de superar el riesgo de extinción es mediante un activo proceso de aprendizajes sociales que haga que todos los sectores asuman una parte de la compleja responsabilidad que significa proteger todas las formas de vida del país, una décima parte mal contada de las planetarias. Agradezco a las decenas de personas que contribuyeron con este reporte, a quienes nos han apoyado en todas las etapas de producción y a sus lectores y usuarios, quienes son en último término los jueces de su utilidad.Bogotá, D. C

The database of the PREDICTS (Projecting Responses of Ecological Diversity In Changing Terrestrial Systems) project

The PREDICTS project-Projecting Responses of Ecological Diversity In Changing Terrestrial Systems (www.predicts.org.uk)-has collated from published studies a large, reasonably representative database of comparable samples of biodiversity from multiple sites that differ in the nature or intensity of human impacts relating to land use. We have used this evidence base to develop global and regional statistical models of how local biodiversity responds to these measures. We describe and make freely available this 2016 release of the database, containing more than 3.2 million records sampled at over 26,000 locations and representing over 47,000 species. We outline how the database can help in answering a range of questions in ecology and conservation biology. To our knowledge, this is the largest and most geographically and taxonomically representative database of spatial comparisons of biodiversity that has been collated to date; it will be useful to researchers and international efforts wishing to model and understand the global status of biodiversity

The database of the PREDICTS (Projecting Responses of Ecological Diversity In Changing Terrestrial Systems) project

The PREDICTS project—Projecting Responses of Ecological Diversity In Changing Terrestrial Systems (www.predicts.org.uk)—has collated from published studies a large, reasonably representative database of comparable samples of biodiversity from multiple sites that differ in the nature or intensity of human impacts relating to land use. We have used this evidence base to develop global and regional statistical models of how local biodiversity responds to these measures. We describe and make freely available this 2016 release of the database, containing more than 3.2 million records sampled at over 26,000 locations and representing over 47,000 species. We outline how the database can help in answering a range of questions in ecology and conservation biology. To our knowledge, this is the largest and most geographically and taxonomically representative database of spatial comparisons of biodiversity that has been collated to date; it will be useful to researchers and international efforts wishing to model and understand the global status of biodiversity