Estimating the size of key populations for HIV in Singapore using the network scale-up method.

OBJECTIVES: To develop a localised instrument and Bayesian statistical method to generate size estimates-adjusted for transmission error and barrier effects-of at-risk populations in Singapore. METHODS: We conducted indepth interviews and focus group to guide the development of the survey questionnaire. The questionnaire was administered between July and August 2017 in Singapore. Using the network scale-up method (NSUM), we developed a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate the number of individuals in four hidden populations at risk of HIV. The method accounted for both transmission error and barrier effects using social acceptance measures and demographics. RESULTS: The adjusted size estimate of the population of male clients of female sex workers was 72 000 (95% CI 51 000 to 100 000), of female sex workers 4200 (95% CI 1600 to 10 000), of men who have sex with men 210 000 (95% CI 140 000 to 300 000) and of intravenous drug users 11 000 (95% CI 6500 to 17 000). CONCLUSIONS: The NSUM with adjustment for attitudes and demographics allows national-level estimates of multiple priority populations to be determined from simple surveys of the general population, even in relatively conservative societies

Worldwide trends in underweight and obesity from 1990 to 2022: a pooled analysis of 3663 population-representative studies with 222 million children, adolescents, and adults

Background Underweight and obesity are associated with adverse health outcomes throughout the life course. We estimated the individual and combined prevalence of underweight or thinness and obesity, and their changes, from 1990 to 2022 for adults and school-aged children and adolescents in 200 countries and territories. Methods We used data from 3663 population-based studies with 222 million participants that measured height and weight in representative samples of the general population. We used a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate trends in the prevalence of different BMI categories, separately for adults (age ≥20 years) and school-aged children and adolescents (age 5–19 years), from 1990 to 2022 for 200 countries and territories. For adults, we report the individual and combined prevalence of underweight (BMI <18·5 kg/m2) and obesity (BMI ≥30 kg/m2). For schoolaged children and adolescents, we report thinness (BMI <2 SD below the median of the WHO growth reference) and obesity (BMI >2 SD above the median). Findings From 1990 to 2022, the combined prevalence of underweight and obesity in adults decreased in 11 countries (6%) for women and 17 (9%) for men with a posterior probability of at least 0·80 that the observed changes were true decreases. The combined prevalence increased in 162 countries (81%) for women and 140 countries (70%) for men with a posterior probability of at least 0·80. In 2022, the combined prevalence of underweight and obesity was highest in island nations in the Caribbean and Polynesia and Micronesia, and countries in the Middle East and north Africa. Obesity prevalence was higher than underweight with posterior probability of at least 0·80 in 177 countries (89%) for women and 145 (73%) for men in 2022, whereas the converse was true in 16 countries (8%) for women, and 39 (20%) for men. From 1990 to 2022, the combined prevalence of thinness and obesity decreased among girls in five countries (3%) and among boys in 15 countries (8%) with a posterior probability of at least 0·80, and increased among girls in 140 countries (70%) and boys in 137 countries (69%) with a posterior probability of at least 0·80. The countries with highest combined prevalence of thinness and obesity in school-aged children and adolescents in 2022 were in Polynesia and Micronesia and the Caribbean for both sexes, and Chile and Qatar for boys. Combined prevalence was also high in some countries in south Asia, such as India and Pakistan, where thinness remained prevalent despite having declined. In 2022, obesity in school-aged children and adolescents was more prevalent than thinness with a posterior probability of at least 0·80 among girls in 133 countries (67%) and boys in 125 countries (63%), whereas the converse was true in 35 countries (18%) and 42 countries (21%), respectively. In almost all countries for both adults and school-aged children and adolescents, the increases in double burden were driven by increases in obesity, and decreases in double burden by declining underweight or thinness. Interpretation The combined burden of underweight and obesity has increased in most countries, driven by an increase in obesity, while underweight and thinness remain prevalent in south Asia and parts of Africa. A healthy nutrition transition that enhances access to nutritious foods is needed to address the remaining burden of underweight while curbing and reversing the increase in obesit

Heterogeneous contributions of change in population distribution of body mass index to change in obesity and underweight NCD Risk Factor Collaboration (NCD-RisC)

From 1985 to 2016, the prevalence of underweight decreased, and that of obesity and severe obesity increased, in most regions, with significant variation in the magnitude of these changes across regions. We investigated how much change in mean body mass index (BMI) explains changes in the prevalence of underweight, obesity, and severe obesity in different regions using data from 2896 population-based studies with 187 million participants. Changes in the prevalence of underweight and total obesity, and to a lesser extent severe obesity, are largely driven by shifts in the distribution of BMI, with smaller contributions from changes in the shape of the distribution. In East and Southeast Asia and sub-Saharan Africa, the underweight tail of the BMI distribution was left behind as the distribution shifted. There is a need for policies that address all forms of malnutrition by making healthy foods accessible and affordable, while restricting unhealthy foods through fiscal and regulatory restrictions

A mixed methods study of non-occupational post-exposure prophylaxis at an STI clinic in Singapore: Five-year retrospective analysis and providers' perspectives.

BACKGROUND:This mixed methods study aims to describe 1) characteristics of the population treated with non-occupational post-exposure prophylaxis (nPEP), 2) predictors of loss to follow-up (LTFU) and nPEP adherence, and 3) to evaluate the nPEP prescribing practices against current management guideline. METHODS:This study was conducted at the Department of Sexually Transmitted Infections Control Clinic in Singapore using clinical data from 2010 to 2016. Explanatory sequential mixed method design was adopted. Predictors of LTFU and nPEP adherence were assessed using modified Poisson regression with robust sandwich variance. Subsequently, nine in-depth interviews with healthcare providers were conducted to gain their insights into barriers and facilitators to nPEP implementation. Transcripts were coded and themes were explored using applied thematic analysis. RESULTS:Of 502 nPEP cases reviewed, 46% were LTFU, 42% were adherent to nPEP and 431 prescription decisions were made in accordance with the guideline. Tourists (aRR, 2.29 [1.90-2.74]; p<0.001) and men who have sex with men/bisexual men (aRR, 1.32 [1.09-1.59]; p = 0.004) were significant predictors of LTFU. Absence of side effects (aRR, 1.14 [1.02-1.27]; p = 0.024) and nPEP treatment with TDF/FTC/ATV/r (aRR, 1.15 [1.03-1.29]; p = 0.017) were positively associated with nPEP adherence. Stigma, types of antiretroviral regimen, side effects, and patients' perception of risk and treatment benefits derived qualitatively further reinforced corresponding quantitative findings. CONCLUSION:Tailored socio-behavioral interventions are needed to address inherent differences within heterogeneous populations requesting nPEP, stigma, and patients' perceptions of nPEP in order to improve follow-up and its adherence

Using qualitative and community-based engagement approaches to gain access and to develop a culturally appropriate STI prevention intervention for foreign female entertainment workers in Singapore

Abstract Background There is an increasing global movement of foreign female entertainment workers (FEWs), a hard-to-reach population vulnerable to HIV/STIs. This paper described the needs assessment phase before intervention implementation where the socio-organisation, sexual risk behaviours and access to health services of foreign FEWs in Singapore were explored. We also highlighted how qualitative inquiry, census enumeration technique and community-based engagement approaches were used to gain access and to develop a culturally appropriate STI prevention intervention. Methods In-depth interviews, observations, informal conversational interviews, mystery client and critical incident technique were used. We estimated the size of FEW population using the census enumeration technique. The findings were used to inform intervention development and implementation. Results We estimated 376 Vietnamese and 330 Thai FEWs in 2 geographical sites where they operated in Singapore. Their reasons for non-condom use included misconceptions on the transmission and consequences of STI/HIV, low risk perception of contracting HIV/STI from paid/casual partner, lack of skills to negotiate or to persuade partner to use condom, unavailability of condoms in entertainment establishments and fear of the police using condom as circumstantial evidence. They faced difficulties in accessing health services due to fear of identity exposure, stigmatisation, cost and language differences. To develop the intervention, we involved FEWs and peer educators, and ensured that the intervention was non-stigmatising and met their needs. To foster their participation, we used culturally-responsive recruitment strategies, and ensured that the trial was anonymous and acceptable to the FEWs. These strategies were effective as we achieved a participation rate of 90.3%, a follow-up rate of 70.5% for the comparison and 66.8% for the intervention group. The interventions group reported a significant increase in consistent condom use with a reduction in STI incidence compared to no significant change in the comparison group. Conclusions The qualitative inquiry approaches to gain access, to foster participation and to develop a culturally appropriate intervention, along with the census enumeration technique application to estimate the FEW population sizes has led to successful intervention implementation as well as safer sexual behaviour and STI incidence reduction. Trial registration ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT02780986. Registered 23 May 2016 (retrospectively registered)

Effect of the Optimize Heart Failure Care Program on clinical and patient outcomes – The pilot implementation in Vietnam

Background: The Ho-Chi-Minh-city Heart Institute in Vietnam took part in the Optimize Heart Failure (OHF) Care Program, designed to improve outcomes following heart failure (HF) hospitalization by increasing patient awareness and optimizing HF treatment. Methods: HF patients hospitalized with left ventricular ejection-fraction (LVEF) <50% were included. Patients received guideline-recommended HF treatment and education. Clinical signs, treatments and outcomes were assessed at admission, discharge, 2 and 6 months (M2, M6). Patients' knowledge and practice were assessed at M6 by telephone survey. Results: 257 patients were included. Between admission and M2 and M6, heart rate decreased significantly, and clinical symptoms improved significantly. LVEF increased significantly from admission to M6. 85% to 99% of patients received education. At M6, 45% to 78% of patients acquired knowledge and adhered to practice regarding diet, exercise, weight control, and detection of worsening symptoms. High use of renin-angiotensin-aldosterone-system inhibitors (91%), mineralocorticoid-receptor-antagonists (77%) and diuretics (85%) was noted at discharge. Beta-blocker and ivabradine use was less frequent at discharge but increased significantly at M6 (from 33% to 51% and from 9% to 20%, respectively, p < 0.001). There were no in-hospital deaths. Readmission rates at 30 and 60 days after discharge were 8.3% and 12.5%, respectively. Mortality rates at 30 days, 60 days and 6 months were 1.2%, 2.5% and 6.4%, respectively. Conclusions: The OHF Care Program could be implemented in Vietnam without difficulty and was associated with high usage of guideline-recommended drug therapy. Although education was delivered, patient knowledge and practice could be further improved at M6 after discharge. Keywords: Heart failure, Optimize, Education, Knowledge, Mortality, Readmissio

Diminishing benefits of urban living for children and adolescents’ growth and development

Optimal growth and development in childhood and adolescence is crucial for lifelong health and well-being1–6. Here we used data from 2,325 population-based studies, with measurements of height and weight from 71 million participants, to report the height and body-mass index (BMI) of children and adolescents aged 5–19 years on the basis of rural and urban place of residence in 200 countries and territories from 1990 to 2020. In 1990, children and adolescents residing in cities were taller than their rural counterparts in all but a few high-income countries. By 2020, the urban height advantage became smaller in most countries, and in many high-income western countries it reversed into a small urban-based disadvantage. The exception was for boys in most countries in sub-Saharan Africa and in some countries in Oceania, south Asia and the region of central Asia, Middle East and north Africa. In these countries, successive cohorts of boys from rural places either did not gain height or possibly became shorter, and hence fell further behind their urban peers. The difference between the age-standardized mean BMI of children in urban and rural areas was <1.1 kg m–2 in the vast majority of countries. Within this small range, BMI increased slightly more in cities than in rural areas, except in south Asia, sub-Saharan Africa and some countries in central and eastern Europe. Our results show that in much of the world, the growth and developmental advantages of living in cities have diminished in the twenty-first century, whereas in much of sub-Saharan Africa they have amplified

Worldwide trends in underweight and obesity from 1990 to 2022: a pooled analysis of 3663 population-representative studies with 222 million children, adolescents, and adults

Background: Underweight and obesity are associated with adverse health outcomes throughout the life course. We estimated the individual and combined prevalence of underweight or thinness and obesity, and their changes, from 1990 to 2022 for adults and school-aged children and adolescents in 200 countries and territories. Methods: We used data from 3663 population-based studies with 222 million participants that measured height and weight in representative samples of the general population. We used a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate trends in the prevalence of different BMI categories, separately for adults (age ≥20 years) and school-aged children and adolescents (age 5-19 years), from 1990 to 2022 for 200 countries and territories. For adults, we report the individual and combined prevalence of underweight (BMI &lt;18·5 kg/m2) and obesity (BMI ≥30 kg/m2). For school-aged children and adolescents, we report thinness (BMI &lt;2 SD below the median of the WHO growth reference) and obesity (BMI &gt;2 SD above the median). Findings: From 1990 to 2022, the combined prevalence of underweight and obesity in adults decreased in 11 countries (6%) for women and 17 (9%) for men with a posterior probability of at least 0·80 that the observed changes were true decreases. The combined prevalence increased in 162 countries (81%) for women and 140 countries (70%) for men with a posterior probability of at least 0·80. In 2022, the combined prevalence of underweight and obesity was highest in island nations in the Caribbean and Polynesia and Micronesia, and countries in the Middle East and north Africa. Obesity prevalence was higher than underweight with posterior probability of at least 0·80 in 177 countries (89%) for women and 145 (73%) for men in 2022, whereas the converse was true in 16 countries (8%) for women, and 39 (20%) for men. From 1990 to 2022, the combined prevalence of thinness and obesity decreased among girls in five countries (3%) and among boys in 15 countries (8%) with a posterior probability of at least 0·80, and increased among girls in 140 countries (70%) and boys in 137 countries (69%) with a posterior probability of at least 0·80. The countries with highest combined prevalence of thinness and obesity in school-aged children and adolescents in 2022 were in Polynesia and Micronesia and the Caribbean for both sexes, and Chile and Qatar for boys. Combined prevalence was also high in some countries in south Asia, such as India and Pakistan, where thinness remained prevalent despite having declined. In 2022, obesity in school-aged children and adolescents was more prevalent than thinness with a posterior probability of at least 0·80 among girls in 133 countries (67%) and boys in 125 countries (63%), whereas the converse was true in 35 countries (18%) and 42 countries (21%), respectively. In almost all countries for both adults and school-aged children and adolescents, the increases in double burden were driven by increases in obesity, and decreases in double burden by declining underweight or thinness. Interpretation: The combined burden of underweight and obesity has increased in most countries, driven by an increase in obesity, while underweight and thinness remain prevalent in south Asia and parts of Africa. A healthy nutrition transition that enhances access to nutritious foods is needed to address the remaining burden of underweight while curbing and reversing the increase in obesity. Funding: UK Medical Research Council, UK Research and Innovation (Research England), UK Research and Innovation (Innovate UK), and European Union

Heterogeneous contributions of change in population distribution of body mass index to change in obesity and underweight

From 1985 to 2016, the prevalence of underweight decreased, and that of obesity and severe obesity increased, in most regions, with significant variation in the magnitude of these changes across regions. We investigated how much change in mean body mass index (BMI) explains changes in the prevalence of underweight, obesity, and severe obesity in different regions using data from 2896 population-based studies with 187 million participants. Changes in the prevalence of underweight and total obesity, and to a lesser extent severe obesity, are largely driven by shifts in the distribution of BMI, with smaller contributions from changes in the shape of the distribution. In East and Southeast Asia and sub-Saharan Africa, the underweight tail of the BMI distribution was left behind as the distribution shifted. There is a need for policies that address all forms of malnutrition by making healthy foods accessible and affordable, while restricting unhealthy foods through fiscal and regulatory restrictions