150 research outputs found
Avaliação dos modelos de gestão ao longo da história em Portugal e Brasil: um olhar acerca das tendências internacionais nas políticas públicas hídricas
- Publication venue
- FACULDADE DE CIÊNCIAS E TECNOLOGIA - UNIVERSIDADE ESTADUAL PAULISTA (FCT-UNESP)
- Publication date
- 21/03/2019
- Field of study
A água é um bem essencial à vida e ao desenvolvimento das civilizações e ao longo dos anos a gestão deste recurso foi sofrendo alterações, ganhando relevância e se tornando mais complexos de acordo com o avançar da ciência e da sociedade. Este trabalho tem o objetivo abordar a evolução da gestão dos recursos hídricos através das ações internacionais ao longo da história, traçando um paralelo com a modernização da democracia e dos movimentos ambientais. Realiza uma comparação entre o caso de Portugal e do Brasil, mostrando as diferenças temporais ao mesmo tempo em que corrobora semelhança entre a evolução dos modelos de gestão hídrica de cada país com seus momentos políticos. É realizado ainda uma avaliação sobre o momento atual de cada política e os desafios que deverão ser enfrentados daqui para frente
PANORAMA DA GESTÃO DOS RECURSOS HÍDRICOS NO ESTADO DO RIO GRANDE DO NORTE, BRASIL
- Author
- Publication venue
- 'Departamento de Educacao FCT/Unesp'
- Publication date
- 17/03/2016
- Field of study
O presente trabalho é de tipo exploratório e teve por objetivo realizar um panorama do gerenciamento dos recursos hídricos do estado do Rio Grande do Norte (RN) frente à situação de disponibilidade e uso da água do território Potiguar, no contexto das pesquisas do PROCAD/CAPES entre a UFRN e a UNESP. A disponibilidade e os diferentes usos do recurso hídrico no RN envolvem uma problemática, desde o foco da gestão, devido às próprias condições semiáridas e características fisiográficas do estado, mas também pela produtividade econômica da região, que tem se incrementado e se voltado para o mercado externo. A pesquisa consistiu numa busca, sistematização e análise de dados e informações históricas, técnicas e jurídicas proferidas pelos órgãos e instituições envolvidas no gerenciamento da água do estado; caracterização e análise crítica da aplicação de políticas e estratégias de gestão estadual; e realização de trabalho de campo no vale do Rio Piranhas-Açu. Encontraram-se diferenças entre os instrumentos de gestão hídrica constantes nas leis estadual e federal; incremento das outorgas de uso da água para diversas atividades econômicas comparada com o abastecimento humano; e maior desenvolvimento das atividades econômicas do estado nas áreas próximas aos rios, em ilhas sedimentares nos terrenos cristalinos. Conclui-se que a gestão das águas do estado do Rio Grande do Norte deve ser realizada de maneira holística, pois a rarefação desse recurso aliado às diferentes exigências sociais de seus usos tende a gerar conflitos, que poderiam ser minimizados através da aplicação efetiva das diretrizes propostas pela Política Nacional dos Recursos hídricos. Palavras chaves: gestão de recursos hídricos, usos da água, Rio Grande do Norte
Optimasi Portofolio Resiko Menggunakan Model Markowitz MVO Dikaitkan dengan Keterbatasan Manusia dalam Memprediksi Masa Depan dalam Perspektif Al-Qur`an
- Author
- Aarrestad Thea Klaeboe
- Abbaneo Duccio
- Abbiendi Giovanni
- Abbrescia Marcello
- Abdullin Salavat
- Abdulsalam Abdulla
- Abercrombie Daniel
- Abu Zeid Shimaa
- Ackert Andrew
- Acosta Darin
- Acosta John Gabriel
- Adair Antony
- Adam Wolfgang
- Adams Jordon Rowe
- Adams Mark Raymond
- Adams Todd
- Adzic Petar
- Agapitos Antonis
- Aggleton Robin
- Agram Jean-Laurent
- Ahmad Ashfaq
- Ahmad Muhammad
- Ahmad Muhammad
- Ahmed Ijaz
- Ahuja Sudha
- Akchurin Nural
- Akgun Bora
- Al-bataineh Ayman
- Albergo Sebastiano
- Albert Andreas
- Albrow Michael
- Alcaraz Maestre Juan
- Aldaya Martin Maria
- Alderweireldt Sara
- Aldá Júnior Walter Luiz
- Aleksandrov Aleksandar
- Alexakhin Vadim
- Alexander James
- Alimena Juliette
- Allen Brandon
- Almond John
- Alunni Solestizi Luisa
- Alverson George
- Alves Fábio Lúcio
- Alves Gilvan
- Alyari Maral
- Amapane Nicola
- Amsler Claude
- Anagnostou Georgios
- Anderson Dustin
- Anderson Ian
- Andrea Jeremy
- Andreev Vladimir
- Andreev Yuri
- Andrews Michael Benjamin
- Androsov Konstantin
- Anelli Christopher
- Antonelli Louis
- Antropov Iurii
- Antunovic Zeljko
- Apanasevich Leonard
- Apollinari Giorgio
- Apresyan Artur
- Apyan Aram
- Arcaro Daniel
- Arcidiacono Roberta
- Arenton Michael Wayne
- Argiro Stefano
- Arneodo Michele
- Asavapibhop Burin
- Asawatangtrakuldee Chayanit
- Askew Andrew
- Attikis Alexandros
- Aubin Alexandre
- Auffray Etiennette
- Autermann Christian
- Auzinger Georg
- Avdeeva Ekaterina
- Avery Paul
- Avetisyan Aram
- Avila Carlos
- Azarkin Maksim
- Azhgirey Igor
- Aziz Tariq
- Azzi Patrizia
- Azzolini Virginia
- Azzurri Paolo
- Aşılar Ece
- Baarmand Marc M
- Baber Mark
- Bacchetta Nicola
- Bachmair Felix
- Bachtis Michail
- Baden Drew
- Baffioni Stephanie
- Bagliesi Giuseppe
- Bahinipati Seema
- Baillon Paul
- Bainbridge Robert
- Bakhshiansohi Hamed
- Ball Austin
- Ball Fionn
- Ban Yong
- Banerjee Sudeshna
- Banerjee Sunanda
- Bansal Sunil
- Barbagli Giuseppe
- Barberis Emanuela
- Barbieri Richard
- Bargassa Pedrame
- Baringer Philip
- Barker Anthony
- Barnes Virgil E
- Barney David
- Baron Owen
- Barone Luciano
- Barria Patrizia
- Barrio Luna Mar
- Bartek Rachel
- Barth Christian
- Bartosik Nazar
- Bartók Márton
- Baskakov Alexey
- Battilana Carlo
- Baty Austin
- Bauerdick Lothar AT
- Baumgartel Darin
- Baus Colin
- Bayshev Igor
- Bean Alice
- Beauceron Stephanie
- Beaudette Florian
- Beck Lana
- Beernaert Kelly
- Behera Prafulla Kumar
- Behnamian Hadi
- Behnke Olaf
- Behrens Ulf
- Bein Samuel
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- Belchior Batista Das Chagas Ewerton
- Belforte Stefano
- Beliy Nikita
- Belknap Donald
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- Belloni Alberto
- Beluffi Camille
- Belyaev Alexander
- Belyaev Andrey
- Benato Lisa
- Bencze Gyorgy
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- Bernet Colin
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- Berryhill Jeffrey
- Bertl Willi
- Besancon Marc
- Betchart Burton
- Betts Russell Richard
- Bhandari Rohan
- Bhardwaj Ashutosh
- Bhat Pushpalatha C
- Bhatnagar Vipin
- Bhattacharya Rajarshi
- Bhattacharya Saptaparna
- Bhattacharya Satyaki
- Bhawandeep Bhawandeep
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- Bhowmik Sandeep
- Bi Ran
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- Bloch Philippe
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- Brandstetter Johannes
- Brandt Stephanie
- Branson James G
- Breedon Richard
- Breto Guillermo
- Brew Christopher
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- Brigliadori Luca
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- Brinkerhoff Andrew
- Brinson Jessica
- Brito Lucas
- Brochero Cifuentes Javier Andres
- Brochet Sébastien
- Brodski Michael
- Brom Jean-Marie
- Brondolin Erica
- Brooke James John
- Brown Robert M
- Brun Hugues
- Bruner Christopher
- Bruno Giacomo
- Buchmuller Oliver
- Bucinskaite Inga
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- Butler Philip H
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- Bylsma Ben
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- Chadeeva Marina
- Chamizo Llatas Maria
- Chang Paoti
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- Chao Yuan
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- Chapon Emilien
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- Chatterjee Kalyanmoy
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- Chauhan Shubhanshu
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- Choudhary Brajesh C
- Choudhury Somnath
- Chtchipounov Leonid
- Chu Jennifer
- Chudasama Ruchi
- Chwalek Thorsten
- Ciangottini Diego
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- Claes Daniel R
- Clare Robert
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- Cooperstein Stephane
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- de Barbaro Pawel
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- de Trocóniz Jorge F
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- De Wit Adinda
- De Wolf Eddi A
- Degano Alessandro
- Deiters Konrad
- Dejardin Marc
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- Delannoy Hugo
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- Di Mattia Alessandro
- Diamond Brendan
- Diemoz Marcella
- Dierlamm Alexander
- Dietz Charles
- Dietz-Laursonn Erik
- Diez Pardos Carmen
- Dildick Sven
- Dilsiz Kamuran
- Dimitrov Anton
- Dinardo Mauro Emanuele
- Dini Paolo
- Dishaw Adam
- Dissertori Günther
- Dittmann Jay
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- Dittmer Susan
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- Durgut Süleyman
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- Eckstein Doris
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- Erdmann Martin
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- Erö Janos
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- Evans Andrew
- Evdokimov Olga
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- Fabbri Fabrizio
- Fabbri Franco
- Fabbro Bernard
- Fabozzi Francesco
- Faccioli Pietro
- Fagot Alexis
- Fahim Ali
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- Fang Wenxing
- Fangmeier Caleb
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- Ferreira Parracho Pedro Guilherme
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- Field Richard D
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- Ford William T
- Forthomme Laurent
- Foudas Costas
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- Hatakeyama Kenichi
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- Hits Dmitry
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- Hoehle Felix
- Hoepfner Kerstin
- Hoffmann Malte
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- Hogan Julie Managan
- Hohlmann Marcus
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- Holzner André
- Hong Byung-Sik
- Hoorani Hafeez R
- Horisberger Roland
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- Smith Dominic
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- Smith John
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- Smith Wesley H
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- Tapia Takaki Daniel
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- Tomalin Ian R
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- Tonelli Manganote Edmilson José
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- Tonjes Marguerite
- Tonwar Suresh C
- Topakli Huseyin
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- Wagner-Kuhr Jeannine
- Walczak Marek
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- Wang Dayong
- Wang Fuqiang
- Wang Hui
- Wang Jian
- Wang Jing
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- Wang Quan
- Wang Ren-Jie
- Wang Sean-Jiun
- Wang Ta-Wei
- Wang Yanchu
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- Wang Zhixing
- Waqas Muhammad
- Wardle Nicholas
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- Wayand Stefan
- Wayne Mitchell
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- Weber Hendrik
- Weber Marc
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- Weiler Thomas
- Weinberg Marc
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- Wendland Lauri
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- West Christopher
- Wetzel James
- Whitbeck Andrew
- Wickramage Nadeesha
- Wilbur Scott
- Williams Thomas
- Williamson Shawn
- Wimpenny Stephen
- Winer Brian L
- Winn Dave
- Wissing Christoph
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- Wyslouch Bolek
- Wöhri Hermine Katharina
- Wöhrmann Clemens
- Würthwein Frank
- Xia Fan
- Xiao Meng
- Xie Si
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- Xin Yongjie
- Xu Lingshan
- Xu Qiao
- Xu Zijun
- Yagil Avraham
- Yalvac Metin
- Yang Mingming
- Yang Unki
- Yang Yong
- Yang Yu Chul
- Yates Brent
- Yazgan Efe
- Yelton John
- Yetkin Elif Asli
- Yetkin Taylan
- Yi Kai
- Yilmaz Yetkin
- Yohay Rachel
- Yonamine Ryo
- Yoo Hwi Dong
- Yoo Jaehyeok
- You Can
- Yu Geum Bong
- Yu Intae
- Yu Shin-Shan
- Yumiceva Francisco
- Yusli Mohd Nizam
- Zabel James
- Zabi Alexandre
- Zaganidis Nicolas
- Zagoździńska Agnieszka
- Zakaria Mohammed
- Zalewski Piotr
- Zanetti Anna
- Zanetti Marco
- Zarubin Anatoli
- Zeinali Maryam
- Zenoni Florian
- Zenz Seth Conrad
- Zeuner Wolfram Dietrich
- Zevi Della Porta Giovanni
- Zeyrek Mehmet
- Zghiche Amina
- Zhang Fengwangdong
- Zhang Huaqiao
- Zhang Jingyu
- Zhao Jingzhou
- Zhokin Alexander
- Zhu Ren-Yuan
- Zhukov Valery
- Zhukova Victoria
- Zientek Margaret
- Zolkapli Zukhaimira
- Zorbakir Ibrahim Soner
- Zorbilmez Caglar
- Zotto Pierluigi
- Zou David
- Zsigmond Anna Julia
- Zucchetta Alberto
- Zumerle Gianni
- Zuranski Andrzej
- Publication venue
- Sunan Kalijaga State Islamic University
- Publication date
- 01/01/2012
- Field of study
Risk portfolio on modern finance has become increasingly technical, requiring the use of sophisticated mathematical tools in both research and practice. Since companies cannot insure themselves completely against risk, as human incompetence in predicting the future precisely that written in Al-Quran surah Luqman verse 34, they have to manage it to yield an optimal portfolio. The objective here is to minimize the variance among all portfolios, or alternatively, to maximize expected return among all portfolios that has at least a certain expected return. Furthermore, this study focuses on optimizing risk portfolio so called Markowitz MVO (Mean-Variance Optimization). Some theoretical frameworks for analysis are arithmetic mean, geometric mean, variance, covariance, linear programming, and quadratic programming. Moreover, finding a minimum variance portfolio produces a convex quadratic programming, that is minimizing the objective function ðð¥with constraintsð ð 𥠥 ðandð´ð¥ = ð. The outcome of this research is the solution of optimal risk portofolio in some investments that could be finished smoothly using MATLAB R2007b software together with its graphic analysis
Global burden of 369 diseases and injuries in 204 countries and territories, 1990–2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019
- Author
- Abbafati Cristiana
- Abbas Kaja M.
- Abbasi Mohammad
- Abbasi-Kangevari Mohsen
- Abbasifard Mitra
- Abbastabar Hedayat
- Abd El Razek Hassan Magdy
- Abd El Razek Muhammed Magdy
- Abd-Allah Foad
- Abdelalim Ahmed
- Abdollahi Mohammad
- Abdollahpour Ibrahim
- Abdulkader Rizwan Suliankatchi
- Abdullah Kanaan Hamagharib
- Abedi Aidin
- Abedi Parisa
- Abegaz Kedir Hussein
- Abolhassani Hassan
- Abosetugn Akine Eshete
- Aboyans Victor
- Abrams Elissa M.
- Abreu Lucas Guimaraes
- Abrigo Michael R. M.
- Abu Haimed Abdulaziz Khalid
- Abu-Gharbieh Eman
- Abu-Raddad Laith Jamal
- Abualhasan Ahmed
- Abushouk Abdelrahman I.
- Acebedo Alyssa
- Ackerman Ilana N.
- Adabi Maryam
- Adair Tim
- Adamu Abdu A.
- Adebayo Oladimeji M.
- Adedeji Isaac Akinkunmi
- Adekanmbi Victor
- Adelson Jaimie D.
- Adeoye Abiodun Moshood
- Adetokunboh Olatunji O.
- Adham Davoud
- Advani Shailesh M.
- Afarideh Mohsen
- Afshari Mahdi
- Afshin Ashkan
- Agardh Emilie E.
- Agarwal Gina
- Agasthi Pradyumna
- Agesa Kareha M.
- Aghaali Mohammad
- Aghamir Seyed Mohammad Kazem
- Agrawal Anurag
- Ahmad Tauseef
- Ahmadi Alireza
- Ahmadi Keivan
- Ahmadi Mehdi
- Ahmadieh Hamid
- Ahmadpour Ehsan
- Ahmed Muktar Beshir
- Aji Budi
- Akalu Temesgen Yihunie
- Akinyemi Rufus Olusola
- Akinyemiju Tomi
- Akombi Blessing
- Akunna Chisom Joyqueenet
- Al-Aly Ziyad
- Al-Mekhlafi Hesham M.
- Al-Raddadi Rajaa M.
- Alahdab Fares
- Alam Khurshid
- Alam Noore
- Alam Samiah
- Alam Tahiya
- Alanezi Fahad Mashhour
- Alanzi Turki M.
- Albertson Samuel B.
- Alcalde-Rabanal Jacqueline Elizabeth
- Alema Niguse Meles
- Alemu Biresaw Wassihun
- Alemu Yihun Mulugeta
- Alhabib Khalid F.
- Alhassan Robert Kaba
- Ali Muhammad
- Ali Saqib
- Alicandro Gianfranco
- Alijanzadeh Mehran
- Alinia Cyrus
- Alipour Vahid
- Alizade Hesam
- Aljunid Syed Mohamed
- Alla Francois
- Allebeck Peter
- Almadi Majid Abdulrahman Hamad
- Almasi Ali
- Almasi-Hashiani Amir
- Almasri Nihad A.
- Almulhim Abdulaziz M.
- Alonso Jordi
- Altirkawi Khalid A.
- Alumran Arwa Khalid
- Alvis-Guzman Nelson
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- Amare Azmeraw T.
- Amare Bekalu
- Amini Saeed
- Amini-Rarani Mostafa
- Aminorroaya Arya
- Amiri Fatemeh
- Amit Arianna Maever L.
- Amugsi Dickson A.
- Amul Gianna Gayle Herrera
- Anbesu Etsay Woldu
- Ancuceanu Robert
- Anderlini Deanna
- Anderson Jason A.
- Andrei Catalina Liliana
- Andrei Tudorel
- Androudi Sofia
- Angus Colin
- Anjomshoa Mina
- Ansari Fereshteh
- Ansari Iman
- Ansari-Moghaddam Alireza
- Antonazzo Ippazio Cosimo
- Antonio Carl Abelardo T.
- Antony Catherine M.
- Antriyandarti Ernoiz
- Anvari Davood
- Anwer Razique
- Appiah Seth Christopher Yaw
- Arab-Zozani Morteza
- Arabloo Jalal
- Aravkin Aleksandr Y.
- Arba Aseb Arba Kinfe
- Aremu Olatunde
- Ariani Filippo
- Aripov Timur
- Armoon Bahram
- Arnlov Johan
- Arowosegbe Oluwaseyi Olalekan
- Aryal Krishna K.
- Arzani Afsaneh
- Asaad Malke
- Asadi-Aliabadi Mehran
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- Asgari Samaneh
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- Ashbaugh Charlie
- Assmus Michael
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- Athari Seyyed Shamsadin
- Atnafu Desta Debalkie
- Atout Maha Moh'd Wahbi
- Atre Sachin R.
- Atteraya Madhu Sudhan
- Ausloos Floriane
- Ausloos Marcel
- Avila-Burgos Leticia
- Avokpaho Euripide Frinel Gbenato Arthur
- Ayano Getinet
- Ayanore Martin Amogre
- Aynalem Getie Lake
- Aynalem Yared Asmare
- Ayza Muluken Altaye
- Azari Samad
- Azarian Ghasem
- Azene Zelalem Nigussie
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- Azzopardi Peter S.
- Babaee Ebrahim
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- Bakhshaei Mohammad Hossein
- Bakhtiari Ahad
- Bakkannavar Shankar M.
- Balachandran Arun
- Balakrishnan Senthilkumar
- Balalla Shivanthi
- Balassyano Shelly
- Baldasseroni Alberto
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- Banach Maciej
- Bandpei Mohammad A. Mohseni
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- Bhala Neeraj
- Bhandari Dinesh
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- Bhattacharyya Krittika
- Bhattarai Suraj
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- Bibi Sadia
- Bicer Burcu Kucuk
- Biehl Molly H.
- Bijani Ali
- Bikbov Boris
- Bilano Ver
- Bin Sayeed Muhammad Shahdaat
- Bin Zaman Sojib
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- Birihane Binyam Minuye
- Bisanzio Donal
- Bisignano Catherine
- Biswas Raaj Kishore
- Bitew Helen
- Bjorge Tone
- Bockarie Moses John
- Bohlouli Somayeh
- Bohluli Mehdi
- Bojia Hunduma Amensisa
- Bolla Srinivasa Rao
- Boloor Archith
- Boon-Dooley Alexandra S.
- Borges Guilherme
- Borzi Antonio Maria
- Borzouei Shiva
- Bose Dipan
- Bosetti Cristina
- Boston Sofia
- Boufous Soufiane
- Bourne Rupert
- Brady Oliver J.
- Braithwaite Dejana
- Brauer Michael
- Brayne Carol
- Breitborde Nicholas J. K.
- Breitner Susanne
- Brenner Hermann
- Breusov Alexey V.
- Briant Paul Svitil
- Briggs Andrew M.
- Briko Andrey Nikolaevich
- Briko Nikolay Ivanovich
- Britton Gabrielle B.
- Brugha Traolach
- Bryazka Dana
- Buchbinder Rachelle
- Bumgarner Blair R.
- Burkart Katrin
- Burnett Richard Thomas
- Busse Reinhard
- Butt Zahid A.
- Caetano dos Santos Florentino Luciano
- Cahill Leah E.
- Cahuana-Hurtado Lucero
- Cai Tianji
- Callender Charlton S. K. H.
- Camera Luis Alberto
- Campos-Nonato Ismael R.
- Cao Jackie
- Car Josip
- Car Lorainne Tudor
- Cardenas Rosario
- Carreras Giulia
- Carrero Juan J.
- Carvalho Felix
- Castaldelli-Maia Joao Mauricio
- Castaneda-Orjuela Carlos A.
- Castelpietra Giulio
- Castle Chris D.
- Castro Emma
- Castro Franz
- Catala-Lopez Ferran
- Causey Kate
- Cederroth Christopher R.
- Cercy Kelly M.
- Cerin Ester
- Chalek Julian
- Chandan Joht Singh
- Chang Alex R.
- Chang Angela Y.
- Chang Jung-Chen
- Chang Kai-Lan
- Charan Jaykaran
- Charlson Fiona J.
- Chattu Vijay Kumar
- Chaturvedi Sarika
- Cherbuin Nicolas
- Chimed-Ochir Odgerel
- Chin Ken Lee
- Chirinos-Caceres Jesus Lorenzo
- Cho Daniel Youngwhan
- Choi Jee-Young Jasmine
- Christensen Hanne
- Chu Dinh-Toi
- Chung Michael T.
- Chung Sheng-Chia
- Cicuttini Flavia M.
- Ciobanu Liliana G.
- Cirillo Massimo
- Cislaghi Beniamino
- Classen Thomas Khaled Dwayne
- Cohen Aaron J.
- Collins Emma L.
- Comfort Haley
- Compton Kelly
- Conti Sara
- Cooper Owen R.
- Corso Barbara
- Cortesi Paolo Angelo
- Costa Vera Marisa
- Cousin Ewerton
- Cowden Richard G.
- Cowie Benjamin C.
- Cromwell Elizabeth A.
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- Cross Di H.
- Cross Marita
- Crowe Christopher Stephen
- Cruz Jessica A.
- Cummins Steven
- Cunningham Matthew
- D'Amico Emanuele
- da Silva Diana Dias
- Dahlawi Saad M. A.
- Dai Haijiang
- Dai Hancheng
- Damasceno Albertino Antonio Moura
- Damiani Giovanni
- Dandona Lalit
- Dandona Rakhi
- Daneshpajouhnejad Parnaz
- Dangel William James
- Danielsson Anna-Karin
- Dargan Paul I.
- Darshan B. B.
- Darwesh Aso Mohammad
- Daryani Ahmad
- Das Gupta Rajat
- Das Neves Jose
- Das Jai K.
- Dash Aditya Prasad
- Davey Gail
- Davila-Cervantes Claudio Alberto
- Davis Adrian C.
- Davitoiu Dragos Virgil
- Davletov Kairat
- De Leo Diego
- De Neve Jan-Walter
- Dean Frances E.
- DeCleene Nicole K.
- Deen Amanda
- Defo Barthelemy Kuate
- Degenhardt Louisa
- DeLang Marissa
- Dellavalle Robert Paul
- Demeke Feleke Mekonnen
- Demoz Gebre Teklemariam
- Demsie Desalegn Getnet
- Denova-Gutierrez Edgar
- Dereje Nebiyu Dereje
- Deribe Kebede
- Dervenis Nikolaos
- Desai Rupak
- Desalew Assefa
- Dessie Getenet Ayalew
- Deuba Keshab
- Dharmaratne Samath Dhamminda
- Dhungana Govinda Prasad
- Dianatinasab Mostafa
- Diaz Daniel
- Dichgans Martin
- Didarloo Alireza
- Dingels Zachary V.
- Dippenaar Ilse N.
- Dirac M. Ashworth
- Djalalinia Shirin
- Do Hoa Thi
- Dokova Klara
- Doku David Teye
- Dolecek Christiane
- Dolgert Andrew J.
- Dorostkar Fariba
- Doshi Chirag P.
- Doshi Pratik P.
- Doshmangir Leila
- Douiri Abdel
- Doxey Matthew C.
- Doyle Kerrie E.
- Driscoll Tim Robert
- Dubljanin Eleonora
- Dunachie Susanna J.
- Duncan Bruce B.
- Duraes Andre Rodrigues
- Eagan Arielle Wilder
- Ebrahimi Hedyeh
- Edvardsson David
- Effiong Andem
- Ehrlich Joshua R.
- El Nahas Nevine
- El Sayed Iman
- El Tantawi Maha
- El-Jaafary Shaimaa I.
- Elbarazi Iffat
- Elgendy Islam Y.
- Elhabashy Hala Rashad
- Elsharkawy Aisha
- Elyazar Iqbal R. F.
- Emamian Mohammad Hassan
- Emmons-Bell Sophia
- Erskine Holly E.
- Eshrati Babak
- Eskandari Khalil
- Eskandarieh Sharareh
- Esmaeilnejad Saman
- Esmaeilzadeh Firooz
- Esteghamati Alireza
- Esteghamati Sadaf
- Estep Kara
- Etemadi Arash
- Etisso Atkilt Esaiyas
- Ezekannagha Oluchi
- Fanzo Jessica
- Farag Tamer
- Farahmand Mohammad
- Faraj Anwar
- Faraon Emerito Jose A.
- Fareed Mohammad
- Faridnia Roghiyeh
- Farinha Carla Sofia e Sa
- Farioli Andrea
- Faris Pawan Sirwan
- Faro Andre
- Faruque Mithila
- Farzadfar Farshad
- Fattahi Nazir
- Fazaeli Ali Akbar
- Fazlzadeh Mehdi
- Feigin Valery L.
- Feldman Rachel
- Fereshtehnejad Seyed-Mohammad
- Fernandes Eduarda
- Ferrara Giannina
- Ferrara Pietro
- Ferrari Alize J.
- Ferreira Manuela L.
- Feyissa Garumma Tolu
- Filip Irina
- Fischer Florian
- Fisher James L.
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- Flohr Carsten
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- Foigt Nataliya A.
- Folayan Morenike Oluwatoyin
- Fomenkov Artem Alekseevich
- Force Lisa M.
- Fornari Carla
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- Fox Jack T.
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- Freitas Marisa
- Fu Weijia
- Fukumoto Takeshi
- Fukutaki Kai
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- Fullman Nancy
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- Gebrehiwot Abiyu Mekonnen
- Gebremedhin Ketema Bizuwork
- Gebremeskel Gebreamlak Gebremedhn
- Gebremeskel Leake G.
- Gebresillassie Begashaw Melaku
- Gebreslassie Assefa Ayalew Ayalew Ayalew
- Gela Jiregna Darega
- Geramo Yilma Chisha Dea
- Geremew Abraham
- Gesesew Hailay Abrha
- Gething Peter W.
- Gezae Kebede Embaye
- Ghadimi Maryam
- Ghadiri Keyghobad
- Ghaffarifar Fatemeh
- Ghafourifard Mansour
- Ghajar Alireza
- Ghamari Farhad
- Ghashghaee Ahmad
- Ghiasvand Hesam
- Ghith Nermin
- Gholamian Asadollah
- Ghosh Rakesh
- Giampaoli Simona
- Gilani Syed Amir
- Gill Paramjit Singh
- Gill Tiffany K.
- Gillum Richard F.
- Ginawi Ibrahim Abdelmageed
- Ginindza Themba G.
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- Giussani Giorgia
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- Glushkova Ekaterina Vladimirovna
- Gnedovskaya Elena V.
- Godinho Myron Anthony
- Goharinezhad Salime
- Golechha Mahaveer
- Goli Srinivas
- Gomez Ricardo Santiago
- Gona Philimon N.
- Gopalani Sameer Vali
- Goren Emily
- Gorini Giuseppe
- Gorman Taren M.
- Gottlich Harrison Chase
- Goudarzi Houman
- Goudarzian Amir Hossein
- Goulart Alessandra C.
- Goulart Barbara Niegia Garcia
- Grada Ayman
- Greaves Felix
- Grivna Michal
- Grosso Giuseppe
- Gubari Mohammed Ibrahim Mohialdeen
- Gudi Nachiket
- Gugnani Harish Chander
- Guimaraes Andre Luiz Sena
- Guimaraes Rafael Alves
- Guled Rashid Abdi
- Gultie Teklemariam
- Guo Gaorui
- Guo Yuming
- Gupta Rahul
- Gupta Rajeev
- Gupta Tarun
- Haagsma Juanita A.
- Hachinski Vladimir
- Haddock Beatrix
- Hafezi-Nejad Nima
- Hafiz Abdul
- Hagins Hailey
- Haile Lydia M.
- Haile Teklehaimanot Gereziher
- Haj-Mirzaian Arvin
- Haj-Mirzaian Arya
- Hall Brian J.
- Halvaei Iman
- Hamadeh Randah R.
- Hameed Sajid
- Hamidi Samer
- Hamilton Erin B.
- Hammer Melanie S.
- Han Chieh
- Han Hannah
- Handiso Demelash Woldeyohannes
- Hanif Asif
- Hankey Graeme J.
- Hanson Sarah Wulf
- Haririan Hamidreza
- Haro Josep Maria
- Harvey James D.
- Hasaballah Ahmed I.
- Hasan Md Mehedi
- Hasanpoor Edris
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- Publication venue
- Publication date
- 01/01/2020
- Field of study
Background: In an era of shifting global agendas and expanded emphasis on non-communicable diseases and injuries along with communicable diseases, sound evidence on trends by cause at the national level is essential. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) provides a systematic scientific assessment of published, publicly available, and contributed data on incidence, prevalence, and mortality for a mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive list of diseases and injuries. Methods: GBD estimates incidence, prevalence, mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) due to 369 diseases and injuries, for two sexes, and for 204 countries and territories. Input data were extracted from censuses, household surveys, civil registration and vital statistics, disease registries, health service use, air pollution monitors, satellite imaging, disease notifications, and other sources. Cause-specific death rates and cause fractions were calculated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model and spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression. Cause-specific deaths were adjusted to match the total all-cause deaths calculated as part of the GBD population, fertility, and mortality estimates. Deaths were multiplied by standard life expectancy at each age to calculate YLLs. A Bayesian meta-regression modelling tool, DisMod-MR 2.1, was used to ensure consistency between incidence, prevalence, remission, excess mortality, and cause-specific mortality for most causes. Prevalence estimates were multiplied by disability weights for mutually exclusive sequelae of diseases and injuries to calculate YLDs. We considered results in the context of the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite indicator of income per capita, years of schooling, and fertility rate in females younger than 25 years. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered 1000 draw values of the posterior distribution. Findings: Global health has steadily improved over the past 30 years as measured by age-standardised DALY rates. After taking into account population growth and ageing, the absolute number of DALYs has remained stable. Since 2010, the pace of decline in global age-standardised DALY rates has accelerated in age groups younger than 50 years compared with the 1990–2010 time period, with the greatest annualised rate of decline occurring in the 0–9-year age group. Six infectious diseases were among the top ten causes of DALYs in children younger than 10 years in 2019: lower respiratory infections (ranked second), diarrhoeal diseases (third), malaria (fifth), meningitis (sixth), whooping cough (ninth), and sexually transmitted infections (which, in this age group, is fully accounted for by congenital syphilis; ranked tenth). In adolescents aged 10–24 years, three injury causes were among the top causes of DALYs: road injuries (ranked first), self-harm (third), and interpersonal violence (fifth). Five of the causes that were in the top ten for ages 10–24 years were also in the top ten in the 25–49-year age group: road injuries (ranked first), HIV/AIDS (second), low back pain (fourth), headache disorders (fifth), and depressive disorders (sixth). In 2019, ischaemic heart disease and stroke were the top-ranked causes of DALYs in both the 50–74-year and 75-years-and-older age groups. Since 1990, there has been a marked shift towards a greater proportion of burden due to YLDs from non-communicable diseases and injuries. In 2019, there were 11 countries where non-communicable disease and injury YLDs constituted more than half of all disease burden. Decreases in age-standardised DALY rates have accelerated over the past decade in countries at the lower end of the SDI range, while improvements have started to stagnate or even reverse in countries with higher SDI. Interpretation: As disability becomes an increasingly large component of disease burden and a larger component of health expenditure, greater research and developm nt investment is needed to identify new, more effective intervention strategies. With a rapidly ageing global population, the demands on health services to deal with disabling outcomes, which increase with age, will require policy makers to anticipate these changes. The mix of universal and more geographically specific influences on health reinforces the need for regular reporting on population health in detail and by underlying cause to help decision makers to identify success stories of disease control to emulate, as well as opportunities to improve. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2020 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 licens
Global age-sex-specific fertility, mortality, healthy life expectancy (HALE), and population estimates in 204 countries and territories, 1950-2019 : a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019
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- Abbafati Cristiana
- Abbas Kaja M.
- Abbasi Mohammad
- Abbasi-Kangevari Mohsen
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- Abdelalim Ahmed
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- Rahman Mohammad H.
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- Rajati Fatemeh
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- Ram Pradhum
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- Ranabhat Chhabi L.
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- Rao Puja C.
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- Rasella Davide
- Rashedi Vahid
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- Reitsma Marissa B.
- Remuzzi Giuseppe
- Renjith Vishnu
- Renzaho Andre M. N. (R17978)
- Ärnlöv Johan
- Øverland Simon
- Publication venue
- 'Elsevier BV'
- Publication date
- 01/01/2020
- Field of study
Background: Accurate and up-to-date assessment of demographic metrics is crucial for understanding a wide range of social, economic, and public health issues that affect populations worldwide. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 produced updated and comprehensive demographic assessments of the key indicators of fertility, mortality, migration, and population for 204 countries and territories and selected subnational locations from 1950 to 2019.
Methods: 8078 country-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 938 surveys, 349 censuses, and 238 other sources were identified and used to estimate age-specific fertility. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate age-specific fertility rates for 5-year age groups between ages 15 and 49 years. With extensions to age groups 10–14 and 50–54 years, the total fertility rate (TFR) was then aggregated using the estimated age-specific fertility between ages 10 and 54 years. 7417 sources were used for under-5 mortality estimation and 7355 for adult mortality. ST-GPR was used to synthesise data sources after correction for known biases. Adult mortality was measured as the probability of death between ages 15 and 60 years based on vital registration, sample registration, and sibling histories, and was also estimated using ST-GPR. HIV-free life tables were then estimated using estimates of under-5 and adult mortality rates using a relational model life table system created for GBD, which closely tracks observed age-specific mortality rates from complete vital registration when available. Independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated by an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys and antenatal clinic serosurveillance and other sources were incorporated into the estimates in countries with large epidemics. Annual and single-year age estimates of net migration and population for each country and territory were generated using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model that analysed estimated age-specific fertility and mortality rates along with 1250 censuses and 747 population registry years. We classified location-years into seven categories on the basis of the natural rate of increase in population (calculated by subtracting the crude death rate from the crude birth rate) and the net migration rate. We computed healthy life expectancy (HALE) using years lived with disability (YLDs) per capita, life tables, and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty was propagated throughout the demographic estimation process, including fertility, mortality, and population, with 1000 draw-level estimates produced for each metric. Findings: The global TFR decreased from 2·72 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 2·66–2·79) in 2000 to 2·31 (2·17–2·46) in 2019. Global annual livebirths increased from 134·5 million (131·5–137·8) in 2000 to a peak of 139·6 million (133·0–146·9) in 2016. Global livebirths then declined to 135·3 million (127·2–144·1) in 2019. Of the 204 countries and territories included in this study, in 2019, 102 had a TFR lower than 2·1, which is considered a good approximation of replacement-level fertility. All countries in sub-Saharan Africa had TFRs above replacement level in 2019 and accounted for 27·1% (95% UI 26·4–27·8) of global livebirths. Global life expectancy at birth increased from 67·2 years (95% UI 66·8–67·6) in 2000 to 73·5 years (72·8–74·3) in 2019. The total number of deaths increased from 50·7 million (49·5–51·9) in 2000 to 56·5 million (53·7–59·2) in 2019. Under-5 deaths declined from 9·6 million (9·1–10·3) in 2000 to 5·0 million (4·3–6·0) in 2019. Global population increased by 25·7%, from 6·2 billion (6·0–6·3) in 2000 to 7·7 billion (7·5–8·0) in 2019. In 2019, 34 countries had negative natural rates of increase; in 17 of these, the population declined because immigration was not sufficient to counteract the negative rate of decline. Globally, HALE increased from 58·6 years (56·1–60·8) in 2000 to 63·5 years (60·8–66·1) in 2019. HALE increased in 202 of 204 countries and territories between 2000 and 2019
Search for supersymmetry in events with one lepton and multiple jets in proton-proton collisions at root s=13 TeV
- Author
- Aarrestad Thea Klaeboe
- Abbaneo Duccio
- Abbiendi Giovanni
- Abbrescia Marcello
- Abdullin Salavat
- Abdulsalam Abdulla
- Abercrombie Daniel
- Abu Zeid Shimaa
- Ackert Andrew
- Acosta Darin
- Acosta John Gabriel
- Adair Antony
- Adam Wolfgang
- Adams Jordon Rowe
- Adams Mark Raymond
- Adams Todd
- Adiguzel Aytul
- Adzic Petar
- Afanasiev Serguei
- Agapitos Antonis
- Aggleton Robin
- Agram Jean-Laurent
- Ahmad Ashfaq
- Ahmad Muhammad
- Ahmad Muhammad
- Ahmed Ijaz
- Ahuja Sudha
- Akchurin Nural
- Akgun Bora
- Al-bataineh Ayman
- Albergo Sebastiano
- Albrow Michael
- Alcaraz Maestre Juan
- Aldaya Martin Maria
- Alderweireldt Sara
- Aldá Júnior Walter Luiz
- Aleksandrov Aleksandar
- Alexakhin Vadim
- Alexander James
- Alimena Juliette
- Allen Brandon
- Almond John
- Alunni Solestizi Luisa
- Alverson George
- Alves Fábio Lúcio
- Alves Gilvan
- Alyari Maral
- Amapane Nicola
- Amsler Claude
- Anagnostou Georgios
- Anderson Dustin
- Anderson Ian
- Andrea Jeremy
- Andreev Vladimir
- Andreev Yuri
- Andrews Michael Benjamin
- Androsov Konstantin
- Anelli Christopher
- Antonelli Louis
- Antropov Iurii
- Antunovic Zeljko
- Apanasevich Leonard
- Apollinari Giorgio
- Apresyan Artur
- Apyan Aram
- Arcaro Daniel
- Arcidiacono Roberta
- Arenton Michael Wayne
- Argiro Stefano
- Arneodo Michele
- Asavapibhop Burin
- Asawatangtrakuldee Chayanit
- Askew Andrew
- Attikis Alexandros
- Aubin Alexandre
- Auffray Etiennette
- Autermann Christian
- Auzinger Georg
- Avdeeva Ekaterina
- Avery Paul
- Avetisyan Aram
- Avila Carlos
- Azarkin Maksim
- Azhgirey Igor
- Aziz Tariq
- Azzi Patrizia
- Azzolini Virginia
- Azzurri Paolo
- Aşılar Ece
- Baarmand Marc M
- Baber Mark
- Bacchetta Nicola
- Bachmair Felix
- Bachtis Michail
- Baden Drew
- Baffioni Stephanie
- Bagliesi Giuseppe
- Bahinipati Seema
- Baillon Paul
- Bainbridge Robert
- Bakhshiansohi Hamed
- Ball Austin
- Ball Fionn
- Ban Yong
- Banerjee Sudeshna
- Banerjee Sunanda
- Bansal Sunil
- Barbagli Giuseppe
- Barberis Emanuela
- Barbieri Richard
- Bargassa Pedrame
- Baringer Philip
- Barker Anthony
- Barnes Virgil E
- Barney David
- Baron Owen
- Barone Luciano
- Barria Patrizia
- Barrio Luna Mar
- Bartek Rachel
- Barth Christian
- Bartosik Nazar
- Bartók Márton
- Baskakov Alexey
- Battilana Carlo
- Baty Austin
- Bauerdick Lothar AT
- Baumgartel Darin
- Baus Colin
- Bayshev Igor
- Bean Alice
- Beauceron Stephanie
- Beaudette Florian
- Beck Lana
- Beernaert Kelly
- Behera Prafulla Kumar
- Behnamian Hadi
- Behnke Olaf
- Behrens Ulf
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- Belchior Batista Das Chagas Ewerton
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- Bernardini Jacopo
- Bernet Colin
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- Besancon Marc
- Betchart Burton
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- Bhandari Rohan
- Bhardwaj Ashutosh
- Bhat Pushpalatha C
- Bhatnagar Vipin
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- Bhattacharya Saptaparna
- Bhattacharya Satyaki
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- Bhopatkar Vallary
- Bhowmik Sandeep
- Bi Ran
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- Bian Jian-Guo
- Bianchini Lorenzo
- Bianco Stefano
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- Biino Cristina
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- Bornheim Adolf
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- Botta Cristina
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- Bourilkov Dimitri
- Bouvier Elvire
- Bowen James
- Bradmiller-Feld John
- Braghieri Alessandro
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- Brandstetter Johannes
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- Breedon Richard
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- Brew Christopher
- Brianza Luca
- Brigliadori Luca
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- Brinkerhoff Andrew
- Brinson Jessica
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- Brochero Cifuentes Javier Andres
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- Burkett Kevin
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- Cadamuro Luca
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- Call Kenneth
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- Cartiglia Nicolo
- Carvalho Antunes De Oliveira Alexandra
- Carvalho Wagner
- Carver Matthew
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- Casasso Stefano
- Castaldi Rino
- Castello Roberto
- Castilla-Valdez Heriberto
- Castiñeiras De Saa Juan Ramon
- Castle James
- Castro Andrea
- Caudron Adrien
- Cavallari Francesca
- Cavallo Francesca Romana
- Cavallo Nicola
- Cavanaugh Richard
- Celik Ali
- Cenna Francesca
- Centis Vignali Matteo
- Cepeda Maria
- Cerati Giuseppe Benedetto
- Cerci Salim
- Cerminara Gianluca
- Cerrada Marcos
- Chabert Eric Christian
- Chadeeva Marina
- Chamizo Llatas Maria
- Chang Paoti
- Chang You-Hao
- Chang Yu-Wei
- Chanon Nicolas
- Chao Yuan
- Chaparro Sierra Luisa Fernanda
- Chapon Emilien
- Charaf Otman
- Charlot Claude
- Chatterjee Kalyanmoy
- Chatterjee Rajdeep Mohan
- Chauhan Shubhanshu
- Chauhan Sushil
- Chaves Jorge
- Chawla Ridhi
- Chen Geng
- Chen Guo-Ming
- Chen He-Sheng
- Chen Kai-Feng
- Chen Mingshui
- Chen Po-Hsun
- Chen Ye
- Chen Yi
- Chen Zhenyu
- Chenarani Shirin
- Cheng Tongguang
- Cherepanov Vladimir
- Chertok Maxwell
- Cheung Harry
- Chhibra Simranjit Singh
- Chierici Roberto
- Chinellato Jose
- Chiorboli Massimiliano
- Chlebana Frank
- Cho Sungwoong
- Choi Minkyoo
- Choi Suyong
- Choi Young-Il
- Chou John Paul
- Choudhary Brajesh C
- Choudhury Somnath
- Chtchipounov Leonid
- Chu Jennifer
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- Mulholland Troy
- Mullin Sam Daniel
- Mundim Luiz
- Murray Michael
- Murumaa Marion
- Murzin Victor
- Musella Pasquale
- Musich Marco
- Musienko Yuri
- Mussgiller Andreas
- My Salvatore
- Müller Thomas
- Müller Thomas
- Nachtman Jane
- Nahn Steve
- Naimuddin Md
- Nandan Saswati
- Narain Meenakshi
- Narayanan Siddharth
- Naseri Mohsen
- Nash David
- Nash Jordan
- Nash Kevin
- Navarria Francesco
- Navarro De Martino Eduardo
- Nawrocki Krzysztof
- Nayak Aruna
- Nehrkorn Alexander
- Nemallapudi Mythra Varun
- Nessi-Tedaldi Francesca
- Netrakanti Pawan Kumar
- Neu Christopher
- Neugebauer Hannes
- Neumeister Norbert
- Newbold Dave M
- Newman Harvey B
- Newman-Holmes Catherine
- Ngadiuba Jennifer
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- Ni Hong
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- Nicolas Kaufman Gala
- Niedziela Marek
- Nikitenko Alexander
- Nishu Nishu
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- Northup Michael
- Nourbakhsh Shervin
- Novaes Sergio F
- Nowack Andreas
- Nowatschin Dominik
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- Raupach Frank
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- Rebello Teles Patricia
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- Reid Ivan
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- Reis Thomas
- Reithler Hans
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- Rezaei Hosseinabadi Ferdos
- Ribeiro Cipriano Pedro M
- Riccardi Cristina
- Ricci-Tam Francesca
- Richards Alexander
- Richardson Clint
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- Roh Youn
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- Romeo Francesco
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- Rorie Jamal
- Roscher Frank
- Rose Andrew
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- Roskes Jeffrey
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- Roy Chowdhury Suvankar
- Roy Ashim
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- Ruchti Randy
- Ruckstuhl Nicole
- Ruggles Tyler
- Ruiz Alvarez José David
- Ruiz Vargas José Cupertino
- Ruiz-Jimeno Alberto
- Rumerio Paolo
- Rusack Roger
- Rusakov Sergey V
- Ruspa Marta
- Russ James
- Ryd Anders
- Rykaczewski Hans
- Ryu Geonmo
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- Ryutin Roman
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- Sabes David
- Sacchi Roberto
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- Salerno Daniel
- Salerno Roberto
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- Saltzberg David
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- Salva Diblen Sinem
- Salvini Paola
- Sanabria Juan Carlos
- Sanchez Cruz Sergio
- Sander Christian
- Sanders Stephen
- Sandoval Gonzalez Irving Daniel
- Sani Matteo
- Santanastasio Francesco
- Santocchia Attilio
- Santoro Alberto
- Santra Arka
- Saoulidou Niki
- Sarica Ulascan
- Sarkar Subir
- Sarkar Tanmay
- Sauvan Jean-Baptiste
- Savin Alexander
- Savina Maria
- Savoy-Navarro Aurore
- Savrin Viktor
- Saxena Pooja
- Schael Stefan
- Scharf Christian
- Scheuch Florian
- Schieck Jochen
- Schizzi Andrea
- Schleper Peter
- Schmidt Alexander
- Schmitt Michael Henry
- Schnetzer Steve
- Schoerner-Sadenius Thomas
- Schomakers Christian
- Schröder Matthias
- Schulte Jan-Frederik
- Schulz Johannes
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- Schwandt Joern
- Schwick Christoph
- Schäfer Christoph
- Schöfbeck Robert
- Schönenberger Myriam
- Sciacca Crisostomo
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- Sculac Toni
- Seez Christopher
- Seidel Markus
- Seif El Nasr-storey Sarah
- Seitz Claudia
- Seixas Joao
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- Selvaggi Giovanna
- Selvaggi Michele
- Sen Sercan
- Senghi Soares Mara
- Seo Seon-hee
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- Sexton-Kennedy Elizabeth
- Sguazzoni Giacomo
- Shah Mehar Ali
- Shaheen Sarmad Masood
- Shalhout Shalhout
- Sharan Manoj
- Sharma Archana
- Sharma Archana
- Sharma Ramkrishna
- Sharma Seema
- Sharma Varun
- Sharma Vivek
- Shchelina Ksenia
- Shchutska Lesya
- Sheffield David
- Sheldon Paul
- Shepherd-Themistocleous Claire
- Shi Xin
- Shin Young Ho
- Shmatov Sergey
- Shoaib Muhammad
- Shrinivas Amithabh
- Shukla Prashant
- Shumeiko Nikolai
- Shvetsov Ivan
- Siado Joaquin Emilo
- Sieber Georg
- Sikler Ferenc
- Silva Pedro
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- Simon Michal
- Simon Sean
- Simonetto Franco
- Simonis Hans-Jürgen
- Singh Gurpreet
- Singh Jasbir
- Sinthuprasith Tutanon
- Sirois Yves
- Siroli Gian Piero
- Sirunyan Albert M
- Skatchkov Nikolai
- Skhirtladze Nikoloz
- Skinnari Louise
- Skovpen Kirill
- Skovpen Yuri
- Skuja Andris
- Smirnov Vitaly
- Smith Dominic
- Smith Geoffrey
- Smith John
- Smith Nicholas
- Smith Vincent J
- Smith Wesley H
- Snigirev Alexander
- Snow Gregory R
- Snyder Christina
- Sobol Andrei
- Soffi Livia
- Soha Aron
- Sola Valentina
- Solano Ada
- Somalwar Sunil
- Son Dong-Chul
- Sonnenschein Lars
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- Sorokin Pavel
- Spagnolo Paolo
- Spalding William J
- Spanier Stefan
- Spannagel Simon
- Spencer Eric
- Sperka David
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- Spiegel Leonard
- Spiezia Aniello
- Spiridonov Alexander
- Spiropulu Maria
- Squires Michael
- Srimanobhas Norraphat
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- Staiano Amedeo
- Starodumov Andrei
- Stefaniuk Nazar
- Steggemann Jan
- Steinbrück Georg
- Stenson Kevin
- Stephans George
- Stickland David
- Stieger Benjamin
- Stober Fred-Markus Helmut
- Stolp Dustin
- Stone Robert
- Stoye Markus
- Stoykova Stefka
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- Strebler Thomas
- Stringer Robert
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- Stupak John
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- Stöver Marc
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- Suarez Indara
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- Sumorok Konstanty
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- Toda Sachiko
- Toldaiev Oleksii
- Tomalin Ian R
- Tomei Thiago
- Toms Maria
- Tonelli Manganote Edmilson José
- Tonelli Guido
- Tonjes Marguerite
- Tonwar Suresh C
- Topakli Huseyin
- Topkar Anita
- Topsis-Giotis Iasonas
- Torassa Ezio
- Toriashvili Tengizi
- Toropin Alexander
- Tosi Mia
- Tosi Nicolò
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- Treberer-Treberspurg Wolfgang
- Treille Daniel
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- Tricomi Alessia
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- Tripathi Mani
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- Trocino Daniele
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- Troendle Daniel
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- Tsamalaidze Zviad
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- Tucker Jordan
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- Tumasyan Armen
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- Tuominiemi Jorma
- Tuovinen Esa
- Turkcapar Semra
- Turkewitz Jared
- Turner Mark
- Turner Paul
- Tuuva Tuure
- Tuve Cristina
- Tytgat Michael
- Tyurin Nikolay
- Tzeng Yeng-Ming
- Tziaferi Eirini
- Uchida Kirika
- Ujvari Balazs
- Ulmer Keith
- Ulrich Ralf
- Undleeb Sonaina
- Uplegger Lorenzo
- Uribe Estrada Cecilia
- Usai Emanuele
- Uzunian Andrey
- Vaandering Eric Wayne
- Vadruccio Daniele
- Vai Ilaria
- Vaitkus Juozas
- Valuev Vyacheslav
- Van De Klundert Merijn
- Van Doninck Walter
- Van Driessche Ward
- Van Haevermaet Hans
- Van Hove Pierre
- Van Mechelen Pierre
- Van Mulders Petra
- Van Onsem Gerrit Patrick
- Van Parijs Isis
- Van Remortel Nick
- Van Spilbeeck Alex
- Vander Donckt Muriel
- Vander Velde Catherine
- Vanelderen Lukas
- Vanhoefer Annika
- Vanlaer Pascal
- Varela Joao
- Varelas Nikos
- Varma Mukund
- Vartak Adish
- Vazquez Acosta Monica
- Vazquez Valencia Fabiola
- Veckalns Viesturs
- Veelken Christian
- Velasco Mayda
- Velicanu Dragos
- Velkovska Julia
- Venditti Rosamaria
- Ventura Sandro
- Venturi Andrea
- Verdier Patrice
- Verdini Piero Giorgio
- Veres Gabor Istvan
- Verlage Tobias
- Vernieri Caterina
- Verwilligen Piet
- Verzetti Mauro
- Verzocchi Marco
- Veszpremi Viktor
- Vesztergombi Gyorgy
- Veverka Jan
- Vidal Marono Miguel
- Vidal Richard
- Vila Ivan
- Vilar Cortabitarte Rocio
- Vilela Pereira Antonio
- Viliani Lorenzo
- Virdee Tejinder
- Viret Sébastien
- Vischia Pietro
- Vitulo Paolo
- Vizan Garcia Jesus Manuel
- Vlasov Evgueni
- Vlimant Jean-Roch
- Vogel Helmut
- Volkov Alexey
- Volobouev Igor
- Vormwald Benedikt
- Vorobiev Igor
- Vorobyev Alexey
- Voutilainen Mikko
- Vutova Mariana
- Wagner Stephen Robert
- Wagner-Kuhr Jeannine
- Walczak Marek
- Walia Genius
- Walker Matthew
- Wallny Rainer
- Walsh Roberval
- Waltenberger Wolfgang
- Wan Abdullah Wan Ahmad Tajuddin
- Wang Chunjie
- Wang Dayong
- Wang Fuqiang
- Wang Hui
- Wang Jian
- Wang Jing
- Wang Michael
- Wang Quan
- Wang Ren-Jie
- Wang Sean-Jiun
- Wang Ta-Wei
- Wang Yanchu
- Wang Zheng
- Wang Zhixing
- Waqas Muhammad
- Wardle Nicholas
- Wasserbaech Steven
- Wayand Stefan
- Wayne Mitchell
- Weber Hannsjoerg Artur
- Weber Hendrik
- Weber Marc
- Weber Matthias
- Wei Hua
- Weiler Thomas
- Weinberg Marc
- Welke Charles
- Wendland Lauri
- Wertz Sébastien
- West Christopher
- Wetzel James
- Whitbeck Andrew
- Wickramage Nadeesha
- Wilbur Scott
- Williams Thomas
- Williamson Shawn
- Wimpenny Stephen
- Winer Brian L
- Winn Dave
- Wissing Christoph
- Wittich Peter
- Wolf Matthias
- Wolf Roger
- Wolfe Evan
- Wood Darien
- Wood John
- Woodard Anna
- Woods Nathaniel
- Wright Douglas
- Wright Jack
- Wu Zhenbin
- Wulsin Howard Wells
- Wulz Claudia-Elisabeth
- Wyslouch Bolek
- Wöhri Hermine Katharina
- Wöhrmann Clemens
- Würthwein Frank
- Xia Fan
- Xiao Meng
- Xie Si
- Xie Wei
- Xin Yongjie
- Xu Lingshan
- Xu Qiao
- Xu Zijun
- Yagil Avraham
- Yalvac Metin
- Yang Mingming
- Yang Unki
- Yang Yong
- Yang Yu Chul
- Yates Brent
- Yazgan Efe
- Yelton John
- Yetkin Elif Asli
- Yetkin Taylan
- Yi Kai
- Yilmaz Yetkin
- Yohay Rachel
- Yonamine Ryo
- Yoo Hwi Dong
- Yoo Jaehyeok
- You Can
- Yu Geum Bong
- Yu Intae
- Yu Shin-Shan
- Yumiceva Francisco
- Yusli Mohd Nizam
- Zabel James
- Zabi Alexandre
- Zaganidis Nicolas
- Zagoździńska Agnieszka
- Zakaria Mohammed
- Zalewski Piotr
- Zanetti Anna
- Zanetti Marco
- Zarubin Anatoli
- Zeinali Maryam
- Zenoni Florian
- Zenz Seth Conrad
- Zeuner Wolfram Dietrich
- Zevi Della Porta Giovanni
- Zeyrek Mehmet
- Zghiche Amina
- Zhang Fengwangdong
- Zhang Huaqiao
- Zhang Jingyu
- Zhao Jingzhou
- Zhokin Alexander
- Zhu Ren-Yuan
- Zhukov Valery
- Zhukova Victoria
- Zientek Margaret
- Zolkapli Zukhaimira
- Zorbakir Ibrahim Soner
- Zorbilmez Caglar
- Zotto Pierluigi
- Zou David
- Zsigmond Anna Julia
- Zucchetta Alberto
- Zumerle Gianni
- Zuranski Andrzej
- Publication venue
- Publication date
- 01/01/2016
- Field of study
Peer reviewe
Erratum: Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks for 195 countries and territories, 1990–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- Author
- Abate Degu
- Abate Kalkidan Hassen
- Abbafati Cristiana
- Abbasi Nooshin
- Abbastabar Hedayat
- Abd-Allah Foad
- Abdela Jemal
- Abdelalim Ahmed
- Abdollahpour Ibrahim
- Abdulkader Rizwan Suliankatchi
- Abebe Molla
- Abebe Zegeye
- Abera Semaw Ferede
- Abil Olifan Zewdie
- Abraha Haftom Niguse
- Abu Raddad Laith J
- Abun Rmeileh Niveen M.E
- Accrombessi Manfred Mario Kokou
- Acharya Dilaram
- Acharya Pawan
- Adamu Abdu Abdullahi
- Adane Akilew Awoke
- Adebayo Oladimeji
- Adedoyin Rufus Adesoji
- Adekanmbi Victor T
- Ademi Zanfina
- Adetokunboh Olatunji O
- Adib Mina G
- Admasie Amha
- Adsuar Jose C
- Afanvi Kossivi Agbélénko
- Afarideh Mohsen
- Afshin Ashkan
- Agarwal Gina
- Aggarwal Anju
- Aghayan Sargis A
- Agrawal Anurag
- Agrawal Sutapa
- Ahmadi Moghadam M
- Ahmadi Alireza
- Ahmadieh Hamid
- Ahmed Muktar Beshir
- Aichour Amani Nidhal
- Aichour Ibtihel
- Aichour Miloud Taki Eddine
- Akbari Mohammad Esmaeil
- Akinyemiju Tomi F.
- Akseer Nadia
- Al Aly Ziyad
- Al Eyadhy Ayman A
- Al Mekhlafi H. M
- Alahdab Fares
- Alam Khurshid
- Alam Samiah
- Alam Tahiya
- Alashi Alaa
- Alavian Seyed Moayed
- Alene Kefyalew Addis
- Ali Komal
- Ali Syed Mustafa
- Alijanzadeh Mehran
- Alizadeh Navaei Reza
- Aljunid Syed Mohamed
- Alkerwi Ala'a
- Alla F
- Alsharif Ubai
- Altirkawi Khalid A
- Alvis Guzman Nelson
- Amare Azmeraw T
- Ammar Walid S
- Anber Nahla
- Anderson Jason A
- Andrei Cǎtǎlina Liliana
- Androudi S
- Animut Megbaru Debalkie
- Anjomshoa Mina
- Ansha Mustafa Geleto
- Antonio Carl Abelardo T
- Antó Josep María
- Anwari Palwasha
- Appiah Lambert Tetteh
- Appiah Seth Christopher Yaw
- Arabloo Jalal
- Aremu Olatunde
- Artaman Al
- Aryal Krishna Kumar
- Asayesh Hamid
- Ataro Zerihun
- Ausloos Marcel
- Avokpaho Euripide Frinel G.Arthur
- Awasthi Ashish
- Ayala Quintanilla Beatriz Paulina
- Ayer Rakesh
- Ayuk Tambe Betrand
- Azzopardi Peter S
- Babazadeh Arefeh
- Badali Hamid
- Badawi Alaa
- Balakrishnan Kalpana
- Bali Ayele Geleto
- Ball Kylie
- Ballew Shoshana H
- Banach Maciej
- Banoub Joseph Adel Mattar
- Barac Aleksandra
- Barker Collo Suzanne Lyn
- Barrero Lope Hugo
- Basu Sanjay
- Baune Bernhard T
- Bazargan Hejazi Shahrzad
- Bedi Neeraj
- Beghi Ettore
- Behzadifar Masoud
- Behzadifar Meysam
- Bekele Bayu Begashaw
- Bekru Eyasu Tamiru
- Belay Ezra
- Belay Yihalem Abebe
- Bell Michelle L.
- Bello Aminu K
- Bennett Derrick A
- Benseñor Isabela M
- Bergeron Gilles
- Berhane Adugnaw
- Bernabe Eduardo
- Bernstein Robert Steven
- Beuran Mircea
- Beyranvand Tina
- Bhala Neeraj B
- Bhalla Ashish K
- Bhattarai Suraj
- Bhutta Zulfiqar A
- Biadgo Belete
- Bijani Ali
- Bijot Yannick
- Bikbov Boris
- Bilano Ver
- Bililign Nigus
- Bin Sayeed Muhammad Shahdaat
- Bisanzio Donal
- Biswas Tuhin
- Björge Tone
- Blacker Brigette F
- Bleyer Archie
- Borschmann Rohan D
- Bou Orm Ibrahim R
- Boufous Soufiane
- Bourne Rupert R.A
- Brady Oliver J
- Brauer Michael
- Bražinová Alexandra
- Breitborde Nicholas J.K
- Brenner Hermann
- Briko A. N
- Britton Gabrielle
- Brugha Traolach Sean
- Buchbinder Rachelle
- Burnett Richard T
- Busse Reinhard
- Butt Zahid A
- Bärnighausen Till Winfried
- Cahill Leah E
- Cahuana Hurtado Lucero
- Campos Nonato Ismael Ricardo
- Carreras G
- Carrero Juan Jesuś A
- Carvalho Malta Deborah
- Castañeda Orjuela C. A
- Castillo Rivas Jacqueline
- Castro Franz
- Catalá López Ferrán
- Causey Kate
- Cercy Kelly M
- Cerin Ester
- Chaiah Yazan
- Chang Hsingyi
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- Weiderpass Elisabete
- Weintraub Robert G
- Weldegebreal Fitsum
- Werdecker Andrea
- Werkneh Adhena Ayaliew
- West James Jason
- Westerman Ronny
- Whiteford Harvey A
- Widecka Justyna
- Wijeratne Tissa
- Winkler Andrea Sylvia
- Wiyeh Alison Beriliy
- Wiysonge Charles Shey
- Wong Tienyin
- Wu Shouling
- Wu Shouling
- Xavier Denis
- Xu Gelin
- Yadgir Simon
- Yadollahpour Ali
- Yahyazadeh Jabbari Seyed Hossein
- Yamada Tomohide
- Yan Lijing L
- Yano Yuichirou
- Yaseri Mehdi
- Yasin Yasin Jemal
- Yeshaneh Alex
- Yimer Ebrahim M
- Yip Paul S.F
- Yisma Engida
- Yonemoto Naohiro
- Yoon Seokjun
- Yotebieng Marcel
- Younis Mustafa Z.“Mike”
- Yousefifard Mahmoud
- Yu Chuanhua
- Zaidi Zoubida
- Zaman Sojib Bin
- Zamani Mohammad
- Zavala-Arciniega Luis
- Zhang Anthonylin
- Zhang Hao
- Zhang Kai
- Zhou Maigeng
- Zimsen Stephanie R.M
- Zodpey Sanjay P
- Øverland Simon
- Šantrić Milićević Milena M.M
- Šekerija Mario
- Publication venue
- 'Elsevier BV'
- Publication date
- 28/06/2019
- Field of study
Interpretation: By quantifying levels and trends in exposures to risk factors and the resulting disease burden, this assessment offers insight into where past policy and programme efforts might have been successful and highlights current priorities for public health action. Decreases in behavioural, environmental, and occupational risks have largely offset the effects of population growth and ageing, in relation to trends in absolute burden. Conversely, the combination of increasing metabolic risks and population ageing will probably continue to drive the increasing trends in non-communicable diseases at the global level, which presents both a public health challenge and opportunity. We see considerable spatiotemporal heterogeneity in levels of risk exposure and risk-attributable burden. Although levels of development underlie some of this heterogeneity, O/E ratios show risks for which countries are overperforming or underperforming relative to their level of development. As such, these ratios provide a benchmarking tool to help to focus local decision making. Our findings reinforce the importance of both risk exposure monitoring and epidemiological research to assess causal connections between risks and health outcomes, and they highlight the usefulness of the GBD study in synthesising data to draw comprehensive and robust conclusions that help to inform good policy and strategic health planning
Search for anomalous couplings in boosted WW/WZ -> l nu q(q)over-bar production in proton-proton collisions at root s=8TeV
- Author
- Aarrestad Thea Klaeboe
- Abbaneo Duccio
- Abbiendi Giovanni
- Abbrescia Marcello
- Abdelalim Ahmed Ali
- Abdullin Salavat
- Abdulsalam Abdulla
- Abercrombie Daniel
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- Hoepfner Kerstin
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- Northup Michael
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- Ratti Sergio P
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- Ribeiro Cipriano Pedro M
- Riccardi Cristina
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- Shah Mehar Ali
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- Sirunyan Albert M
- Skatchkov Nikolai
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- Skinnari Louise
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- Smirnov Vitaly
- Smith Dominic
- Smith Geoffrey
- Smith John
- Smith Nicholas
- Smith Vincent J
- Smith Wesley H
- Snigirev Alexander
- Snow Gregory R
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- Sobol Andrei
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- Spagnolo Paolo
- Spalding William J
- Spanier Stefan
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- Starodumov Andrei
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- Tlisov Danila
- Toda Sachiko
- Toldaiev Oleksii
- Tomalin Ian R
- Tomei Thiago
- Toms Maria
- Tonelli Manganote Edmilson José
- Tonelli Guido
- Tonjes Marguerite
- Tonwar Suresh C
- Topkar Anita
- Topsis-Giotis Iasonas
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- Troendle Daniel
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- Tu Zhoudunming
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- Ulrich Ralf
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- Vesztergombi Gyorgy
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- Vlimant Jean-Roch
- Vogel Helmut
- Volkov Alexey
- Volobouev Igor
- Vormwald Benedikt
- Vorobiev Igor
- Vorobyev Alexey
- Voutilainen Mikko
- Voytishin Nikolay
- Vutova Mariana
- Wagner Stephen Robert
- Walczak Marek
- Walia Genius
- Walker Matthew
- Wallny Rainer
- Walsh Roberval
- Waltenberger Wolfgang
- Wan Abdullah Wan Ahmad Tajuddin
- Wang Chunjie
- Wang Dayong
- Wang Fuqiang
- Wang Hui
- Wang Jian
- Wang Jing
- Wang Michael
- Wang Quan
- Wang Ren-Jie
- Wang Sean-Jiun
- Wang Ta-Wei
- Wang Yanchu
- Wang Zheng
- Wang Zhixing
- Waqas Muhammad
- Wardle Nicholas
- Wasserbaech Steven
- Wayand Stefan
- Wayne Mitchell
- Weber Hannsjoerg Artur
- Weber Marc
- Weber Matthias
- Wei Hua
- Weiler Thomas
- Weinberg Marc
- Welke Charles
- Wendland Lauri
- Wertz Sébastien
- West Christopher
- Wetzel James
- Whitbeck Andrew
- Wickramage Nadeesha
- Wiederkehr Stephan Albert
- Williams Thomas
- Williamson Shawn
- Wimpenny Stephen
- Winer Brian L
- Winn Dave
- Wissing Christoph
- Wittich Peter
- Wolf Matthias
- Wolf Roger
- Wolfe Evan
- Wood Darien
- Wood John
- Woodard Anna
- Woods Nathaniel
- Wright Douglas
- Wright Jack
- Wu Yujun
- Wu Zhenbin
- Wulsin Howard Wells
- Wulz Claudia-Elisabeth
- Wyslouch Bolek
- Wöhri Hermine Katharina
- Wöhrmann Clemens
- Würthwein Frank
- Xia Fan
- Xiao Meng
- Xie Si
- Xie Wei
- Xu Qiao
- Xu Zijun
- Yagil Avraham
- Yalvac Metin
- Yang Fan
- Yang Unki
- Yang Yong
- Yang Yu Chul
- Yates Brent
- Yazgan Efe
- Yelton John
- Yetkin Elif Asli
- Yetkin Taylan
- Yi Kai
- Yilmaz Yetkin
- Yohay Rachel
- Yonamine Ryo
- Yoo Hwi Dong
- Yoo Jaehyeok
- You Can
- Yu Geum Bong
- Yu Intae
- Yu Shin-Shan
- Yumiceva Francisco
- Yusli Mohd Nizam
- Zabel James
- Zabi Alexandre
- Zaganidis Nicolas
- Zagoździńska Agnieszka
- Zakaria Mohammed
- Zalewski Piotr
- Zanetti Anna
- Zanetti Marco
- Zarubin Anatoli
- Zeinali Maryam
- Zenoni Florian
- Zenz Seth Conrad
- Zeuner Wolfram Dietrich
- Zevi Della Porta Giovanni
- Zeyrek Mehmet
- Zghiche Amina
- Zhang Fengwangdong
- Zhang Huaqiao
- Zhang Jingyu
- Zhao Jingzhou
- Zhokin Alexander
- Zhu Ren-Yuan
- Zientek Margaret
- Zolkapli Zukhaimira
- Zorbakir Ibrahim Soner
- Zorbilmez Caglar
- Zotto Pierluigi
- Zou David
- Zsigmond Anna Julia
- Zucchetta Alberto
- Zumerle Gianni
- Zykunov Vladimir
- Publication venue
- Publication date
- 01/01/2017
- Field of study
Peer reviewe
Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- Author
- Abate Degu
- Abate Degu
- Abate Kalkidan Hassell
- Abate Kalkidan Hassell
- Abbafati Cristiana
- Abbafati Cristiana
- Abbasi Nooshin
- Abbasi Nooshin
- Abbastabar Hedayat
- Abbastabar Hedayat
- Abd-Allah Foad
- Abd-Allah Foad
- Abdela Jemal
- Abdela Jemal
- Abdelalim Ahmed
- Abdelalim Ahmed
- Abdollahpour Ibrahim
- Abdollahpour Ibrahim
- Abdulkader Rizwan Suliankatchi
- Abdulkader Rizwan Suliankatchi
- Abebe Molla
- Abebe Molla
- Abebe Zegeye
- Abebe Zegeye
- Abera Semaw F.
- Abera Semaw F.
- Abil Olifan Zewdie
- Abil Olifan Zewdie
- Abraha Haftom Niguse
- Abraha Haftom Niguse
- Abrham Aklilu Roba
- Abrham Aklilu Roba
- Abu-Raddad Laith Jamal
- Abu-Raddad Laith Jamal
- Abu-Rmeileh Niveen M. E.
- Abu-Rmeileh Niveen M. E.
- Accrombessi Manfred Mario Kokou
- Accrombessi Manfred Mario Kokou
- Acharya Dilaram
- Acharya Dilaram
- Acharya Pawan
- Acharya Pawan
- Adamu Abdu A.
- Adamu Abdu A.
- Adane Akikw Awoke
- Adane Akikw Awoke
- Adebayo Oladimeji M.
- Adebayo Oladimeji M.
- Adedoyin Rufus Adesoji
- Adedoyin Rufus Adesoji
- Adekanmbi Victor
- Adekanmbi Victor
- Ademi Zanfina
- Ademi Zanfina
- Adetokunboh Olatunji
- Adetokunboh Olatunji
- Adib Mina G.
- Adib Mina G.
- Admasie Amha
- Admasie Amha
- Adsuar Jose C.
- Adsuar Jose C.
- Afanvi Kossivi Agbelenko
- Afanvi Kossivi Agbelenko
- Afarideh Mohsen
- Afarideh Mohsen
- Afshin Ashkan
- Afshin Ashkan
- Agarwal Gina
- Agarwal Gina
- Aggarwal Anju
- Aggarwal Anju
- Aghayan Sargis Aghast
- Aghayan Sargis Aghast
- Agrawal Anurag
- Agrawal Anurag
- Agrawal Sutapa
- Agrawal Sutapa
- Ahmadi Alireza
- Ahmadi Alireza
- Ahmadi Mehdi
- Ahmadi Mehdi
- Ahmadieh Hamid
- Ahmadieh Hamid
- Ahmed Muktar Beshir
- Ahmed Muktar Beshir
- Aichour Amani Nidhal
- Aichour Amani Nidhal
- Aichour Ibtihel
- Aichour Ibtihel
- Aichour Miloud Taki Eddine
- Aichour Miloud Taki Eddine
- Akbari Mohammad Esmaeil
- Akbari Mohammad Esmaeil
- Akinyemiju Tomi
- Akinyemiju Tomi
- Akseer Nadia
- Akseer Nadia
- Al-Aly Ziyad
- Al-Aly Ziyad
- Al-Eyadhy Ayman
- Al-Eyadhy Ayman
- Al-Mekhlafi Hesham M.
- Al-Mekhlafi Hesham M.
- Alam Khurshid
- Alam Khurshid
- Alam Samiah
- Alam Samiah
- Alam Tahiya
- Alam Tahiya
- Alandab Fares
- Alandab Fares
- Alashi Alaa
- Alashi Alaa
- Alavian Seyed Moayed
- Alavian Seyed Moayed
- Alene Kefyalew Addis
- Alene Kefyalew Addis
- Ali Komal
- Ali Komal
- Ali Syed Mustafa
- Ali Syed Mustafa
- Alijanzadeh Mehran
- Alijanzadeh Mehran
- Alizadeh-Navaei Reza
- Alizadeh-Navaei Reza
- Aljunid Syed Mohamed
- Aljunid Syed Mohamed
- Alkerwi Ala'a
- Alkerwi Ala'a
- Alla Francois
- Alla Francois
- Alsharif Ubai
- Alsharif Ubai
- Altirkawi Khalid
- Altirkawi Khalid
- Alvis-Guzman Nelson
- Alvis-Guzman Nelson
- Amare Azmeraw T.
- Amare Azmeraw T.
- Amlov Johan
- Amlov Johan
- Ammar Walid
- Ammar Walid
- Anber Nahla Hamed
- Anber Nahla Hamed
- Anderson Jason A.
- Anderson Jason A.
- Andrei Catalina Liliana
- Andrei Catalina Liliana
- Androudi Sofia
- Androudi Sofia
- Anh Quynh Nguyen
- Anh Quynh Nguyen
- Animut Megbaru Debalkie
- Animut Megbaru Debalkie
- Anjomshoa Mina
- Anjomshoa Mina
- Ansha Mustafa Geleto
- Ansha Mustafa Geleto
- Anto Josep M.
- Anto Josep M.
- Antonio Carl Abelardo T.
- Antonio Carl Abelardo T.
- Anwari Palwasha
- Anwari Palwasha
- Appiah Lambert Tetteh
- Appiah Lambert Tetteh
- Appiah Seth Christopher Yaw
- Appiah Seth Christopher Yaw
- Arabloo Jalal
- Arabloo Jalal
- Aremu Olatunde
- Aremu Olatunde
- Artaman Al
- Artaman Al
- Aryal Krishna K.
- Aryal Krishna K.
- Asayesh Hamid
- Asayesh Hamid
- Ataro Zerihun
- Ataro Zerihun
- Ausloos Marcel
- Ausloos Marcel
- Avokpaho Euripide F. G. A.
- Avokpaho Euripide F. G. A.
- Awasthi Ashish
- Awasthi Ashish
- Ayer Rakesh
- Ayer Rakesh
- Ayuk Tanabe B.
- Ayuk Tanabe B.
- Azzopardi Peter S.
- Azzopardi Peter S.
- Babazadeff Arefeh
- Babazadeff Arefeh
- Badali Hamid
- Badali Hamid
- Badawi Alaa
- Badawi Alaa
- Balakrishnan Kalpana
- Balakrishnan Kalpana
- Bali Ayele Geleto
- Bali Ayele Geleto
- Ball Kylie
- Ball Kylie
- Ballesteros Wayra Citlali Paz
- Ballesteros Wayra Citlali Paz
- Bamighausen Till Winfried
- Bamighausen Till Winfried
- Banach Maciej
- Banach Maciej
- Banoub Joseph Adel Mattar
- Banoub Joseph Adel Mattar
- Barac Aleksandra
- Barac Aleksandra
- Barker-Collo Suzanne Lyn
- Barker-Collo Suzanne Lyn
- Barrero Lope H.
- Barrero Lope H.
- Basu Sanjay
- Basu Sanjay
- Baune Bernhard T.
- Baune Bernhard T.
- Bazargan-Hejazi Shahrzad
- Bazargan-Hejazi Shahrzad
- Bedi Neeraj
- Bedi Neeraj
- Beghi Ettore
- Beghi Ettore
- Behzadifar Masoud
- Behzadifar Masoud
- Behzadifar Meysam
- Behzadifar Meysam
- Bejoy Yannick
- Bejoy Yannick
- Bekele Bayu Begashaw
- Bekele Bayu Begashaw
- Bekru Fyasu Tamru
- Bekru Fyasu Tamru
- Belay Ezra
- Belay Ezra
- Belay Yilhalem Abebe
- Belay Yilhalem Abebe
- Bell Michelle L.
- Bell Michelle L.
- Bellew Shoshana H.
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- Bello Aminu K.
- Bello Aminu K.
- Bemabe Eduardo
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- Bemstein Robert S.
- Bemstein Robert S.
- Bennett Derrick A.
- Bennett Derrick A.
- Bensenor Isabela M.
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- Bergeron Gilles
- Bergeron Gilles
- Berhane Adugnaw
- Berhane Adugnaw
- Beuran Mircea
- Beuran Mircea
- Beyranvand Tina
- Beyranvand Tina
- Bhala Neeraj
- Bhala Neeraj
- Bhalla Ashish
- Bhalla Ashish
- Bhattarai Suraj
- Bhattarai Suraj
- Bhutta Zulfiqar A.
- Bhutta Zulfiqar A.
- Biadgo Belete
- Biadgo Belete
- Bicer Burcu Kucuk
- Bicer Burcu Kucuk
- Bijani Ali
- Bijani Ali
- Bikbov Boris
- Bikbov Boris
- Bilano Ver
- Bilano Ver
- Bililign Nigus
- Bililign Nigus
- Bin Sayeed Muhamad Shandaat
- Bin Sayeed Muhamad Shandaat
- Bin Zaman Sojib
- Bin Zaman Sojib
- Bisanzio Donal
- Bisanzio Donal
- Biswas Tuhin
- Biswas Tuhin
- Bjorge Tone
- Bjorge Tone
- Blacker Brigette F.
- Blacker Brigette F.
- Bleyer Archie
- Bleyer Archie
- Borschmann Rohan
- Borschmann Rohan
- Bou-Orm Ibrahim R.
- Bou-Orm Ibrahim R.
- Boufous Soufiane
- Boufous Soufiane
- Bourne Rupert
- Bourne Rupert
- Brady Oliver J.
- Brady Oliver J.
- Brauer Michael
- Brauer Michael
- Brazinova Alexandra
- Brazinova Alexandra
- Breitborde Nicholas J. K.
- Breitborde Nicholas J. K.
- Brenner Hermann
- Brenner Hermann
- Briko Andrey Nikolaevich
- Briko Andrey Nikolaevich
- Britton Gabrielle
- Britton Gabrielle
- Brugha Traolach
- Brugha Traolach
- Buchbindet Rachelle
- Buchbindet Rachelle
- Burnett Richard T.
- Burnett Richard T.
- Busse Reinhard
- Busse Reinhard
- Butt Zahid A.
- Butt Zahid A.
- Cahill Leah E.
- Cahill Leah E.
- Cahuana-Hurtado Lucero
- Cahuana-Hurtado Lucero
- Campos-Nonato Ismael R.
- Campos-Nonato Ismael R.
- Car Lorainne Tudor
- Car Lorainne Tudor
- Cardenas Rosario
- Cardenas Rosario
- Carreras Giulia
- Carreras Giulia
- Carrero Juan J.
- Carrero Juan J.
- Carvalho Felix
- Carvalho Felix
- Castaneda-Orjuela Carlos A.
- Castaneda-Orjuela Carlos A.
- Castro Franz
- Castro Franz
- Catala-Lopez Ferran
- Catala-Lopez Ferran
- Causey Kate
- Causey Kate
- Cercy Kelly M.
- Cercy Kelly M.
- Cerin Ester
- Cerin Ester
- Chaiah Yazan
- Chaiah Yazan
- Chang Hying-Ti
- Chang Hying-Ti
- Chang Jung-Chen
- Chang Jung-Chen
- Chang Kai-Lan
- Chang Kai-Lan
- Charlson Fiona J.
- Charlson Fiona J.
- Chattopadhyay Aparajita
- Chattopadhyay Aparajita
- Chattu Vijay Kumar
- Chattu Vijay Kumar
- Chee Miao Li
- Chee Miao Li
- Cheng Ching-Yu
- Cheng Ching-Yu
- Chew Adrienne
- Chew Adrienne
- Chiang Peggy Pei-Chia
- Chiang Peggy Pei-Chia
- Chimed-Ochir Odgerel
- Chimed-Ochir Odgerel
- Chin Ken Lee
- Chin Ken Lee
- Chitheer Abdulaal
- Chitheer Abdulaal
- Choi Jee-Young J.
- Choi Jee-Young J.
- Chowdhury Rajiv
- Chowdhury Rajiv
- Christensen Hanne
- Christensen Hanne
- Christopher Devasahayam J.
- Christopher Devasahayam J.
- Chung Sheng-Chia
- Chung Sheng-Chia
- Cicuttini Flavia M.
- Cicuttini Flavia M.
- Cohen Aaron J.
- Cohen Aaron J.
- Collado-Mateo Daniel
- Collado-Mateo Daniel
- Cooper Cyrus
- Cooper Cyrus
- Cooper Owen R.
- Cooper Owen R.
- Coresh Josef
- Coresh Josef
- Cornaby Leslie
- Cornaby Leslie
- Cortesi Paolo Angelo
- Cortesi Paolo Angelo
- Cortinovis Monica
- Cortinovis Monica
- Costa Megan
- Costa Megan
- Cousin Ewerton
- Cousin Ewerton
- Criqui Michael H.
- Criqui Michael H.
- Cromwell Elizabeth A.
- Cromwell Elizabeth A.
- Cundiff David K.
- Cundiff David K.
- Daba Alenmeh Kabeta
- Daba Alenmeh Kabeta
- Dachew Berihun Assefa
- Dachew Berihun Assefa
- Dadi Abel Fekadu
- Dadi Abel Fekadu
- Damasceno Alberti Antonio Moura
- Damasceno Alberti Antonio Moura
- Dandona Lalit
- Dandona Lalit
- Dandona Rakhi
- Dandona Rakhi
- Darby Sarah C.
- Darby Sarah C.
- Dargan Paul I.
- Dargan Paul I.
- Daryani Ahmed
- Daryani Ahmed
- Das Gupta Rajat
- Das Gupta Rajat
- Das Neves Jose
- Das Neves Jose
- Dasa Tamirat Tesfaye
- Dasa Tamirat Tesfaye
- Dash Aditya Prasad
- Dash Aditya Prasad
- Davitoiu Dragos Virgil
- Davitoiu Dragos Virgil
- Davletov Kairat
- Davletov Kairat
- De la Cruz-Gongora Vanessa
- De la Cruz-Gongora Vanessa
- De la Hoz Fernando Pio
- De la Hoz Fernando Pio
- De Leo Diego
- De Leo Diego
- De Neve Jan-Walter
- De Neve Jan-Walter
- Defo Barthelemy Kuate
- Defo Barthelemy Kuate
- Degenhardt Louisa
- Degenhardt Louisa
- Deiparine Selina
- Deiparine Selina
- Dellavalle Robert P.
- Dellavalle Robert P.
- Demoz Gebre Teklemariam
- Demoz Gebre Teklemariam
- Denova-Gutierrez Edgar
- Denova-Gutierrez Edgar
- Deribe Kebede
- Deribe Kebede
- Dervenis Nikolaos
- Dervenis Nikolaos
- Deshpande Aniruddha
- Deshpande Aniruddha
- Dessie Getenet Ayalew
- Dessie Getenet Ayalew
- Deveber Gabrielle Aline
- Deveber Gabrielle Aline
- Dey Subhojit
- Dey Subhojit
- Dharmaratne Samath Dhamminda
- Dharmaratne Samath Dhamminda
- Dhimal Meghnath
- Dhimal Meghnath
- Dinberu Mesfin Tadese
- Dinberu Mesfin Tadese
- Ding Eric L.
- Ding Eric L.
- Diro Helen Derara
- Diro Helen Derara
- Djalalinia Shirin
- Djalalinia Shirin
- Dokova Klara
- Dokova Klara
- Doku David Teye
- Doku David Teye
- Driscoll Tim R.
- Driscoll Tim R.
- Dubey Manisha
- Dubey Manisha
- Dubljanin Eleonora
- Dubljanin Eleonora
- Duken Eyasu Ejeta
- Duken Eyasu Ejeta
- Duncan Bruce B.
- Duncan Bruce B.
- Duraes Andre R.
- Duraes Andre R.
- Ebert Natalie
- Ebert Natalie
- Ebrahimi Hedyeh
- Ebrahimi Hedyeh
- Ebrahimpour Soheil
- Ebrahimpour Soheil
- Edvardsson David
- Edvardsson David
- Eggen Anne Elise
- Eggen Anne Elise
- El Bcheraoui Charbel
- El Bcheraoui Charbel
- El-Khatib Iad
- El-Khatib Iad
- Elfiong Andem
- Elfiong Andem
- Elyazar Iqbal Rf
- Elyazar Iqbal Rf
- Enayati Ahmadali
- Enayati Ahmadali
- Endries Aman Yesuf
- Endries Aman Yesuf
- Er Benjamin
- Er Benjamin
- Erskine Holly E.
- Erskine Holly E.
- Eskandarieh Sharareh
- Eskandarieh Sharareh
- Esteghamati Alireza
- Esteghamati Alireza
- Estep Kara
- Estep Kara
- Fakhim Hamed
- Fakhim Hamed
- Falavarjani Khalil Ghasemi
- Falavarjani Khalil Ghasemi
- Faramarzi Mahbobeh
- Faramarzi Mahbobeh
- Fareed Mohammad
- Fareed Mohammad
- Farid Talha A.
- Farid Talha A.
- Farinha Carla Sofia E. Sa
- Farinha Carla Sofia E. Sa
- Farioli Andrea
- Farioli Andrea
- Faro Andre
- Faro Andre
- Farvid Maryam S.
- Farvid Maryam S.
- Farzaei Mohammad Hosein
- Farzaei Mohammad Hosein
- Fatima Batool
- Fatima Batool
- Fay Kairsten A.
- Fay Kairsten A.
- Fazaeli Ali Akbar
- Fazaeli Ali Akbar
- Feigin Valery L.
- Feigin Valery L.
- Feigl Andrea B.
- Feigl Andrea B.
- Fereshtehnejad Seyed-Mohammad
- Fereshtehnejad Seyed-Mohammad
- Fernandes Eduarda
- Fernandes Eduarda
- Fernandes Joao C.
- Fernandes Joao C.
- Ferrara Giannina
- Ferrara Giannina
- Ferrari Alize J.
- Ferrari Alize J.
- Ferreira Manuela L.
- Ferreira Manuela L.
- Filip Irina
- Filip Irina
- Finger Jonas David
- Finger Jonas David
- Fischer Florian
- Fischer Florian
- Foigt Nataliya A.
- Foigt Nataliya A.
- Foreman Kyle J.
- Foreman Kyle J.
- Fukumoto Takeshi
- Fukumoto Takeshi
- Fullman Nancy
- Fullman Nancy
- Furst Thomas
- Furst Thomas
- Furtado Joao M.
- Furtado Joao M.
- Futran Neal D.
- Futran Neal D.
- Gakidou Emmanuela
- Gakidou Emmanuela
- Gall Seana
- Gall Seana
- Gallus Silvan
- Gallus Silvan
- Gamkrelidze Amiran
- Gamkrelidze Amiran
- Ganji Morsaleh
- Ganji Morsaleh
- Garcia-Basteiro Alberto L.
- Garcia-Basteiro Alberto L.
- Gardner William Ni
- Gardner William Ni
- Gebre Abadi Kahsu
- Gebre Abadi Kahsu
- Gebremedhin Amanuel Tesfay
- Gebremedhin Amanuel Tesfay
- Gebremichael Teklu Gebrehiwo
- Gebremichael Teklu Gebrehiwo
- Geese Kebede Embaye
- Geese Kebede Embaye
- Gelano Tilayie Feto
- Gelano Tilayie Feto
- Geleijnse Johanna M.
- Geleijnse Johanna M.
- Geramo Yilma Chisha Dea
- Geramo Yilma Chisha Dea
- Gething Peter W.
- Gething Peter W.
- Ghadimi Reza
- Ghadimi Reza
- Ghadiri Keyghobad
- Ghadiri Keyghobad
- Ghasemi-Kasman Maryam
- Ghasemi-Kasman Maryam
- Ghimire Mamata
- Ghimire Mamata
- Ghosh Rakesh
- Ghosh Rakesh
- Ghoshal Aloke Gopal
- Ghoshal Aloke Gopal
- Giampaoli Simona
- Giampaoli Simona
- Gill Paramjit Singh
- Gill Paramjit Singh
- Gill Tiffany K.
- Gill Tiffany K.
- Gillum Richard F.
- Gillum Richard F.
- Ginawi Ibrahim Abdelmageed
- Ginawi Ibrahim Abdelmageed
- Giussani Giorgia
- Giussani Giorgia
- Gnedovskaya Elena V.
- Gnedovskaya Elena V.
- Godwin William W.
- Godwin William W.
- Goli Srinivas
- Goli Srinivas
- Gomez-Dantes Hector
- Gomez-Dantes Hector
- Gona Philimon N.
- Gona Philimon N.
- Gopalani Sameer Vali
- Gopalani Sameer Vali
- Goulart Alessandra C.
- Goulart Alessandra C.
- Grada Ayman
- Grada Ayman
- Grams Morgan E.
- Grams Morgan E.
- Grillo Massimo
- Grillo Massimo
- Grosso Giuseppe
- Grosso Giuseppe
- Gugnani Hanish Chander
- Gugnani Hanish Chander
- Guo Yuming
- Guo Yuming
- Gupta Rahul
- Gupta Rahul
- Gupta Rajeev
- Gupta Rajeev
- Gupta Tanush
- Gupta Tanush
- Gutierrez Reyna Alma
- Gutierrez Reyna Alma
- Gutierrez-Torres Daniela S.
- Gutierrez-Torres Daniela S.
- Ha Thu Nguyen
- Ha Thu Nguyen
- Ha Howard
- Ha Howard
- Haagsma Juanita A.
- Haagsma Juanita A.
- Habtewold Tesfa Dejenie
- Habtewold Tesfa Dejenie
- Hachinski Vladimir
- Hachinski Vladimir
- Hafezi-Nejad Nima
- Hafezi-Nejad Nima
- Hagos Tekleberhan B.
- Hagos Tekleberhan B.
- Hai Quang Pham
- Hai Quang Pham
- Hailegiyorgis Tewodros Tesfa
- Hailegiyorgis Tewodros Tesfa
- Hailu Gessessew Bugssa
- Hailu Gessessew Bugssa
- Haj-Mirzaian Arvin
- Haj-Mirzaian Arvin
- Haj-Mirzaian Arya
- Haj-Mirzaian Arya
- Hamadeh Randah R.
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- Hamidi Samer
- Hamidi Samer
- Handal Alexis J.
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- Hankey Graeme J.
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- Harb Hilda L.
- Harb Hilda L.
- Harikrishnan Sivadasanpillai
- Harikrishnan Sivadasanpillai
- Haro Josep Maria
- Haro Josep Maria
- Hassankhani Hadi
- Hassankhani Hadi
- Hassen Hamid Yimam
- Hassen Hamid Yimam
- Havmoeller Rasmus
- Havmoeller Rasmus
- Hawley Caitlin N.
- Hawley Caitlin N.
- Hay Simon I.
- Hay Simon I.
- Hedayatizadeh-Omran Akbar
- Hedayatizadeh-Omran Akbar
- Heibati Behzad
- Heibati Behzad
- Heidari Behnam
- Heidari Behnam
- Heidari Mohsen
- Heidari Mohsen
- Hendrie Delia
- Hendrie Delia
- Henok Andualem
- Henok Andualem
- Heredia-Pi Ileana
- Heredia-Pi Ileana
- Herteliu C.
- Herteliu C.
- Herteliu C.
- Herteliu C.
- Heydarpour Fatemeh
- Heydarpour Fatemeh
- Heydarpour Sousan
- Heydarpour Sousan
- Hibstu Desalegn T.
- Hibstu Desalegn T.
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- Sharafi Heidar
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- Sharif Mehdi
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- Sharif-Alhoseini Matadi
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- Sharifi Hamid
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- Sharma Jayendra
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- Sharma Meenakshi
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- She Jun
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- Sheikh Aziz
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- Shi Peilin
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- Shiadeh Malihe Nourollahpour
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- Shibuya Kenji
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- Shin Min-Jeong
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- Werdecker Andrea
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- West J. Jason
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- Whiteford Harvey A.
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- Widecka Justyna
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- Wijeratne Tissa
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- Winkler Andrea Sylvia
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- Wiyeh Alison B.
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- Wiysonge Charles Shey
- Wiysonge Charles Shey
- Wolfe Charles D. A.
- Wolfe Charles D. A.
- Wong Tien Yin
- Wong Tien Yin
- Wu Shoaling
- Wu Shoaling
- Xavier Denis
- Xavier Denis
- Xu Gelin
- Xu Gelin
- Yadgir Simon
- Yadgir Simon
- Yadollahpour Ali
- Yadollahpour Ali
- Yamada Tomohide
- Yamada Tomohide
- Yan Lijing L.
- Yan Lijing L.
- Yano Yuichiro
- Yano Yuichiro
- Yaseri Mehdi
- Yaseri Mehdi
- Yasin Jemal Yasin
- Yasin Jemal Yasin
- Yeshanely Alex
- Yeshanely Alex
- Yimer Ebrahim M.
- Yimer Ebrahim M.
- Yip Paul
- Yip Paul
- Yisma Engida
- Yisma Engida
- Yonemoto Naohiro
- Yonemoto Naohiro
- Yoon Seok-Jun
- Yoon Seok-Jun
- Yotebieng Marcel
- Yotebieng Marcel
- Younis Mustafa Z.
- Younis Mustafa Z.
- Yousefifard Mahmoud
- Yousefifard Mahmoud
- Yu Chuanhua
- Yu Chuanhua
- Zaidi Zoubida
- Zaidi Zoubida
- Zamani Mohammad
- Zamani Mohammad
- Zavala-Arciniega Luis
- Zavala-Arciniega Luis
- Zhang Anthony Lin
- Zhang Anthony Lin
- Zhang Hao
- Zhang Hao
- Zhang Kai
- Zhang Kai
- Zimsen Stephanie M.
- Zimsen Stephanie M.
- Zodpey Sanjay
- Zodpey Sanjay
- Publication venue
- 'Elsevier BV'
- Publication date
- 01/01/2018
- Field of study
Background
The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 comparative risk assessment (CRA) is a comprehensive approach to risk factor quantification that offers a useful tool for synthesising evidence on risks and risk–outcome associations. With each annual GBD study, we update the GBD CRA to incorporate improved methods, new risks and risk–outcome pairs, and new data on risk exposure levels and risk–outcome associations.
Methods
We used the CRA framework developed for previous iterations of GBD to estimate levels and trends in exposure, attributable deaths, and attributable disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), by age group, sex, year, and location for 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or groups of risks from 1990 to 2017. This study included 476 risk–outcome pairs that met the GBD study criteria for convincing or probable evidence of causation. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from 46 749 randomised controlled trials, cohort studies, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL), we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We explored the relationship between development and risk exposure by modelling the relationship between the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and risk-weighted exposure prevalence and estimated expected levels of exposure and risk-attributable burden by SDI. Finally, we explored temporal changes in risk-attributable DALYs by decomposing those changes into six main component drivers of change as follows: (1) population growth; (2) changes in population age structures; (3) changes in exposure to environmental and occupational risks; (4) changes in exposure to behavioural risks; (5) changes in exposure to metabolic risks; and (6) changes due to all other factors, approximated as the risk-deleted death and DALY rates, where the risk-deleted rate is the rate that would be observed had we reduced the exposure levels to the TMREL for all risk factors included in GBD 2017.
Findings
In 2017, 34·1 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 33·3–35·0) deaths and 1·21 billion (1·14–1·28) DALYs were attributable to GBD risk factors. Globally, 61·0% (59·6–62·4) of deaths and 48·3% (46·3–50·2) of DALYs were attributed to the GBD 2017 risk factors. When ranked by risk-attributable DALYs, high systolic blood pressure (SBP) was the leading risk factor, accounting for 10·4 million (9·39–11·5) deaths and 218 million (198–237) DALYs, followed by smoking (7·10 million [6·83–7·37] deaths and 182 million [173–193] DALYs), high fasting plasma glucose (6·53 million [5·23–8·23] deaths and 171 million [144–201] DALYs), high body-mass index (BMI; 4·72 million [2·99–6·70] deaths and 148 million [98·6–202] DALYs), and short gestation for birthweight (1·43 million [1·36–1·51] deaths and 139 million [131–147] DALYs). In total, risk-attributable DALYs declined by 4·9% (3·3–6·5) between 2007 and 2017. In the absence of demographic changes (ie, population growth and ageing), changes in risk exposure and risk-deleted DALYs would have led to a 23·5% decline in DALYs during that period. Conversely, in the absence of changes in risk exposure and risk-deleted DALYs, demographic changes would have led to an 18·6% increase in DALYs during that period. The ratios of observed risk exposure levels to exposure levels expected based on SDI (O/E ratios) increased globally for unsafe drinking water and household air pollution between 1990 and 2017. This result suggests that development is occurring more rapidly than are changes in the underlying risk structure in a population. Conversely, nearly universal declines in O/E ratios for smoking and alcohol use indicate that, for a given SDI, exposure to these risks is declining. In 2017, the leading Level 4 risk factor for age-standardised DALY rates was high SBP in four super-regions: central Europe, eastern Europe, and central Asia; north Africa and Middle East; south Asia; and southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania. The leading risk factor in the high-income super-region was smoking, in Latin America and Caribbean was high BMI, and in sub-Saharan Africa was unsafe sex. O/E ratios for unsafe sex in sub-Saharan Africa were notably high, and those for alcohol use in north Africa and the Middle East were notably low.
Interpretation
By quantifying levels and trends in exposures to risk factors and the resulting disease burden, this assessment offers insight into where past policy and programme efforts might have been successful and highlights current priorities for public health action. Decreases in behavioural, environmental, and occupational risks have largely offset the effects of population growth and ageing, in relation to trends in absolute burden. Conversely, the combination of increasing metabolic risks and population ageing will probably continue to drive the increasing trends in non-communicable diseases at the global level, which presents both a public health challenge and opportunity. We see considerable spatiotemporal heterogeneity in levels of risk exposure and risk-attributable burden. Although levels of development underlie some of this heterogeneity, O/E ratios show risks for which countries are overperforming or underperforming relative to their level of development. As such, these ratios provide a benchmarking tool to help to focus local decision making. Our findings reinforce the importance of both risk exposure monitoring and epidemiological research to assess causal connections between risks and health outcomes, and they highlight the usefulness of the GBD study in synthesising data to draw comprehensive and robust conclusions that help to inform good policy and strategic health planning
Burden of disease scenarios for 204 countries and territories, 2022–2050: a forecasting analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021
- Author
- Ababneh Hazim S
- Abate Yohannes Habtegiorgis
- Abbafati Cristiana
- Abbasgholizadeh Rouzbeh
- Abbasian Mohammadreza
- Abbastabar Hedayat
- Abd Al Magied Abdallah H A
- Abd ElHafeez Samar
- Abd-Elsalam Sherief
- Abdelkader Atef
- Abdelmasseh Michael
- Abdi Parsa
- Abdollahi Mohammad
- Abdoun Meriem
- Abdullahi Auwal
- Abebe Mesfin
- Abiodun Olumide
- Aboagye Richard Gyan
- Abolhassani Hassan
- Abouzid Mohamed
- Aboye Girma Beressa
- Abreu Lucas Guimarães
- Absalan Abdorrahim
- Abualruz Hasan
- Abubakar Bilyaminu
- Abukhadijah Hana Jihad Jihad
- Addolorato Giovanni
- Adekanmbi Victor
- Adetunji Charles Oluwaseun
- Adetunji Juliana Bunmi
- Adeyeoluwa Temitayo Esther
- Adha Rishan
- Adhikary Ripon Kumar
- Adnani Qorinah Estiningtyas Sakilah
- Adzigbli Leticia Akua
- Afrashteh Fatemeh
- Afzal Muhammad Sohail
- Afzal Saira
- Agbozo Faith
- Agodi Antonella
- Agrawal Anurag
- Agyemang-Duah Williams
- Ahinkorah Bright Opoku
- Ahlstrom Austin J
- Ahmad Aqeel
- Ahmad Firdos
- Ahmad Muayyad M
- Ahmad Sajjad
- Ahmad Shahzaib
- Ahmed Anisuddin
- Ahmed Ayman
- Ahmed Haroon
- Ahmed Safoora
- Ahmed Syed Anees
- Akinosoglou Karolina
- Akkaif Mohammed Ahmed
- Akrami Ashley E
- Akter Ema
- Al Awaidy Salah
- Al Hasan Syed Mahfuz
- Al Mosa Amjad S
- Al Ta'ani Omar
- Al Zaabi Omar Ali Mohammed
- Al-Ajlouni Yazan
- Al-Aly Ziyad
- Al-amer Rasmieh Mustafa
- Al-Gheethi Adel Ali Saeed
- Al-Hanawi Mohammed Khaled
- Al-Ibraheem Akram
- Al-Mekhlafi Hesham M
- Al-Sabah Salman Khalifah
- Al-Tammemi Ala'a B.
- Al-Tawfiq Jaffar A
- Al-Wardat Mohammad Sami
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- Al-Zyoud Walid
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- Aldridge Robert W
- Alemohammad Seyedeh Yasaman
- Alemu Yihun Mulugeta
- Ali Abid
- Ali Amjad
- Ali Iman
- Ali Mohammed Usman
- Ali Rafat
- Ali Syed Shujait Shujait
- Ali Victor Ekoche
- Ali Waad
- Alicandro Gianfranco
- Alif Sheikh Mohammad
- Aljunid Syed Mohamed
- Alla François
- Almazan Joseph Uy
- Alqutaibi Ahmed Yaseen
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- Armani Keivan
- Artamonov Anton A
- Arumugam Ashokan
- Asghari-Jafarabadi Mohammad
- Ashbaugh Charlie
- Astell-Burt Thomas
- Athari Seyyed Shamsadin
- Atorkey Prince
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- Bako Abdulaziz T
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- Bardideh Erfan
- Barker-Collo Suzanne Lyn
- Barqawi Hiba Jawdat
- Barteit Sandra
- Basiru Afisu
- Basso João Diogo
- Bastan Mohammad-Mahdi
- Basu Sanjay
- Bauckneht Matteo
- Baune Bernhard T
- Bayati Mohsen
- Bayileyegn Nebiyou Simegnew
- Bärnighausen Till Winfried
- Behnoush Amir Hossein
- Behzadi Payam
- Beiranvand Maryam
- Bello Olorunjuwon Omolaja
- Belo Luis
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- Bharadwaj Ravi
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- Bhardwaj Pankaj
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- Bhaskar Sonu
- Bhat Vivek
- Bhattacharjee Natalia V
- Bhatti Gurjit Kaur
- Bhatti Jasvinder Singh
- Bhatti Manpreet S
- Bhuiyan Mohiuddin Ahmed
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- Bodolica Virginia
- Bodunrin Aadam Olalekan
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- Bora Basara Berrak
- Borhany Hamed
- Bosoka Samuel Adolf
- Botero Carvajal Alejandro
- Bouaoud Souad
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- Boxe Christopher
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- Butt Zahid A
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- Calina Daniela
- Campos Luciana Aparecida
- Cao Shujin
- Capodici Angelo
- Carreras Giulia
- Carugno Andrea
- Carvalho Márcia
- Castaldelli-Maia Joao Mauricio
- Castelpietra Giulio
- Cattaruzza Maria Sofia
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- Chandy Sara
- Charan Jaykaran
- Chaudhary Anis Ahmad
- Chaurasia Akhilanand
- Chen An-Tian
- Chen Haowei
- Chen Meng Xuan
- Chen Simiao
- Cherbuin Nicolas
- Chi Gerald
- Chichagi Fatemeh
- Chimed-Ochir Odgerel
- Chimoriya Ritesh
- Ching Patrick R
- Chirinos-Caceres Jesus Lorenzo
- Chitheer Abdulaal
- Cho Daniel Youngwhan
- Cho William C S
- Choi Dong-Woo
- Chong Bryan
- Chong Chean Lin
- Chopra Hitesh
- Chu Dinh-Toi
- Chung Eric
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- Clayton Justin T
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- Cohen Aaron J
- Columbus Alyssa
- Comfort Haley
- Conde Joao
- Connolly Jon T
- Cooper Ezra E K
- Cortese Samuele
- Cruz-Martins Natália
- Çakmak Barsbay Mehtap
- D'Oria Mario
- da Silva Alanna Gomes
- Dadras Omid
- Dai Xiaochen
- Dai Zhaoli
- Dalton Bronte E
- Damiani Giovanni
- Dandona Lalit
- Dandona Rakhi
- Das Jai K
- Das Saswati
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- Dash Nihar Ranjan
- Davletov Kairat
- De la Hoz Fernando Pio
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- Debopadhaya Shayom
- Delgado-Enciso Ivan
- Denova-Gutiérrez Edgar
- Dervenis Nikolaos
- Desai Hardik Dineshbhai
- Devanbu Vinoth Gnana Chellaiyan
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- Dushpanova Anar
- Dutta Sulagna
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- Thapar Rekha
- Thayakaran Rasiah
- Thirunavukkarasu Sathish
- Thomas Nihal
- Thygesen Lau Caspar
- Ticoalu Jansje Henny Vera
- Timalsena Dinesh
- Tiruye Tenaw Yimer
- Tiwari Krishna
- Tomo Sojit
- Tonelli Marcello
- Topor-Madry Roman
- Touvier Mathilde
- Tovani-Palone Marcos Roberto
- Tran An Thien
- Tran Jasmine T
- Tran Nghia Minh
- Tran Thang Huu
- Trico Domenico
- Tromans Samuel Joseph
- Truyen Thien Tan Tri Tai
- Tsatsakis Aristidis
- Tsermpini Evangelia Eirini
- Tumurkhuu Munkhtuya
- Turnock Steven T
- Udoh Arit
- Ullah Atta
- Ullah Saeed
- Ullah Sana
- Umakanthan Srikanth
- Umar Muhammad
- Umar Shehu Salihu
- Unim Brigid
- Unnikrishnan Bhaskaran
- Upadhyay Era
- Usman Jibrin Sammani
- Vahdati Sanaz
- Vaithinathan Asokan Govindaraj
- Vakili Omid
- Valizadeh Rohollah
- Van den Eynde Jef
- Vart Priya
- Varthya Shoban Babu
- Vasankari Tommi Juhani
- Vasic Milena
- Venketasubramanian Narayanaswamy
- Veroux Massimiliano
- Verras Georgios-Ioannis
- Vervoort Dominique
- Vijayageetha Mathavaswami
- Villafañe Jorge Hugo
- Vinayak Manish
- Violante Francesco S
- Vladimirov Sergey Konstantinovitch
- Vlassov Vasily
- Vo Bay
- Vohra Karn
- Vollset Stein Emil
- Vos Theo
- Wadood Abdul Wadood
- Waheed Yasir
- Wang Fang
- Wang Shaopan
- Wang Shu
- Wang Yanqing
- Wang Yanzhong
- Wang Yuan-Pang
- Wanjau Mary Njeri
- Waqas Muhammad
- Ward Paul
- Waris Abdul
- Wassie Emebet Gashaw
- Watson Stefanie
- Weaver Marcia R
- Weerakoon Kosala Gayan
- Weintraub Robert G
- Weldetinsaa Haftom Legese Legese
- Wells Katherine M
- Wen Yi Feng
- Westerman Ronny
- Wiangkham Taweewat
- Wickramasinghe Dakshitha Praneeth
- Widowati Evi
- Wojewodzic Marcin W
- Woldeyes Dawit Habte
- Wolf Axel Walter
- Wolfe Charles D A
- Wu Chenkai
- Wu Dongze
- Wu Felicia
- Wu Jiayuan
- Wu Zenghong
- Wulf Hanson Sarah
- Xiao Hong
- Xu Suowen
- Yadav Rakesh
- Yamagishi Kazumasa
- Yang Danting
- Yano Yuichiro
- Yarahmadi Amir
- Yazdani Nia Iman
- Ye Pengpeng
- Yesodharan Renjulal
- Yesuf Subah Abderehim
- Yezli Saber
- Yigzaw Zeamanuel Anteneh
- Yiğit Arzu
- Yiğit Vahit
- Yin Dehui
- Yip Paul
- Yonemoto Naohiro
- You Yuyi
- Younis Mustafa Z
- Yu Chuanhua
- Yu Elaine A
- Yu Yong
- Yuan Chun-Wei
- Yusuf Hadiza
- Zafar Uzma
- Zafari Nima
- Zahid Mondal Hasan
- Zakham Fathiah
- Zaki Nazar
- Zerfu Taddese Alemu
- Zhang Haijun
- Zhang Jingya
- Zhang Liqun
- Zhang Yunquan
- Zhang Zhiqiang
- Zhao Xiu-Ju George
- Zhao Yang
- Zhao Zhongyi
- Zhong Chenwen
- Zhou Bolun
- Zhou Juexiao
- Zhou Shangcheng
- Zhu Bin
- Zhumagaliuly Abzal
- Zielińska Magdalena
- Zoghi Ghazal
- Zumla Alimuddin
- Zyoud Sa'ed H
- Zyoud Samer H
- Publication venue
- Publication date
- 01/01/2024
- Field of study
Background: Future trends in disease burden and drivers of health are of great interest to policy makers and the public at large. This information can be used for policy and long-term health investment, planning, and prioritisation. We have expanded and improved upon previous forecasts produced as part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) and provide a reference forecast (the most likely future), and alternative scenarios assessing disease burden trajectories if selected sets of risk factors were eliminated from current levels by 2050. Methods: Using forecasts of major drivers of health such as the Socio-demographic Index (SDI; a composite measure of lag-distributed income per capita, mean years of education, and total fertility under 25 years of age) and the full set of risk factor exposures captured by GBD, we provide cause-specific forecasts of mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) by age and sex from 2022 to 2050 for 204 countries and territories, 21 GBD regions, seven super-regions, and the world. All analyses were done at the cause-specific level so that only risk factors deemed causal by the GBD comparative risk assessment influenced future trajectories of mortality for each disease. Cause-specific mortality was modelled using mixed-effects models with SDI and time as the main covariates, and the combined impact of causal risk factors as an offset in the model. At the all-cause mortality level, we captured unexplained variation by modelling residuals with an autoregressive integrated moving average model with drift attenuation. These all-cause forecasts constrained the cause-specific forecasts at successively deeper levels of the GBD cause hierarchy using cascading mortality models, thus ensuring a robust estimate of cause-specific mortality. For non-fatal measures (eg, low back pain), incidence and prevalence were forecasted from mixed-effects models with SDI as the main covariate, and YLDs were computed from the resulting prevalence forecasts and average disability weights from GBD. Alternative future scenarios were constructed by replacing appropriate reference trajectories for risk factors with hypothetical trajectories of gradual elimination of risk factor exposure from current levels to 2050. The scenarios were constructed from various sets of risk factors: environmental risks (Safer Environment scenario), risks associated with communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases (CMNNs; Improved Childhood Nutrition and Vaccination scenario), risks associated with major non-communicable diseases (NCDs; Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenario), and the combined effects of these three scenarios. Using the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways climate scenarios SSP2-4.5 as reference and SSP1-1.9 as an optimistic alternative in the Safer Environment scenario, we accounted for climate change impact on health by using the most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change temperature forecasts and published trajectories of ambient air pollution for the same two scenarios. Life expectancy and healthy life expectancy were computed using standard methods. The forecasting framework includes computing the age-sex-specific future population for each location and separately for each scenario. 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) for each individual future estimate were derived from the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles of distributions generated from propagating 500 draws through the multistage computational pipeline. Findings: In the reference scenario forecast, global and super-regional life expectancy increased from 2022 to 2050, but improvement was at a slower pace than in the three decades preceding the COVID-19 pandemic (beginning in 2020). Gains in future life expectancy were forecasted to be greatest in super-regions with comparatively low life expectancies (such as sub-Saharan Africa) compared with super-regions with higher life expectancies (such as the high-income super-region), leading to a trend towards convergence in life expectancy across locations between now and 2050. At the super-region level, forecasted healthy life expectancy patterns were similar to those of life expectancies. Forecasts for the reference scenario found that health will improve in the coming decades, with all-cause age-standardised DALY rates decreasing in every GBD super-region. The total DALY burden measured in counts, however, will increase in every super-region, largely a function of population ageing and growth. We also forecasted that both DALY counts and age-standardised DALY rates will continue to shift from CMNNs to NCDs, with the most pronounced shifts occurring in sub-Saharan Africa (60·1% [95% UI 56·8–63·1] of DALYs were from CMNNs in 2022 compared with 35·8% [31·0–45·0] in 2050) and south Asia (31·7% [29·2–34·1] to 15·5% [13·7–17·5]). This shift is reflected in the leading global causes of DALYs, with the top four causes in 2050 being ischaemic heart disease, stroke, diabetes, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, compared with 2022, with ischaemic heart disease, neonatal disorders, stroke, and lower respiratory infections at the top. The global proportion of DALYs due to YLDs likewise increased from 33·8% (27·4–40·3) to 41·1% (33·9–48·1) from 2022 to 2050, demonstrating an important shift in overall disease burden towards morbidity and away from premature death. The largest shift of this kind was forecasted for sub-Saharan Africa, from 20·1% (15·6–25·3) of DALYs due to YLDs in 2022 to 35·6% (26·5–43·0) in 2050. In the assessment of alternative future scenarios, the combined effects of the scenarios (Safer Environment, Improved Childhood Nutrition and Vaccination, and Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenarios) demonstrated an important decrease in the global burden of DALYs in 2050 of 15·4% (13·5–17·5) compared with the reference scenario, with decreases across super-regions ranging from 10·4% (9·7–11·3) in the high-income super-region to 23·9% (20·7–27·3) in north Africa and the Middle East. The Safer Environment scenario had its largest decrease in sub-Saharan Africa (5·2% [3·5–6·8]), the Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenario in north Africa and the Middle East (23·2% [20·2–26·5]), and the Improved Nutrition and Vaccination scenario in sub-Saharan Africa (2·0% [–0·6 to 3·6]). Interpretation: Globally, life expectancy and age-standardised disease burden were forecasted to improve between 2022 and 2050, with the majority of the burden continuing to shift from CMNNs to NCDs. That said, continued progress on reducing the CMNN disease burden will be dependent on maintaining investment in and policy emphasis on CMNN disease prevention and treatment. Mostly due to growth and ageing of populations, the number of deaths and DALYs due to all causes combined will generally increase. By constructing alternative future scenarios wherein certain risk exposures are eliminated by 2050, we have shown that opportunities exist to substantially improve health outcomes in the future through concerted efforts to prevent exposure to well established risk factors and to expand access to key health interventions
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