Ozone hole impacts on surface temperatures under climate change

The Antarctic ozone hole, caused by human releases of chlorofluorocarbons, plays a major role in driving climate change in the southern hemisphere. Atmospheric temperatures and circulation are affected by the severe ozone loss due to a coupling of atmospheric composition, radiation, and dynamics. The ozone hole leads to a springtime stratospheric cooling and a prolonged persistence of the stratospheric polar vortex. Further, it affects surface climate where changes are characterized by a shift of the midlatitude jet towards higher latitudes that is commonly referred to as a shift of the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) towards its positive phase. This shift is associated with warming and cooling patterns in the southern hemisphere, particularly a cooling of large parts of Antarctica and a warming of the Antarctic Peninsula and Patagonia. With stratospheric ozone in the path to recovery, the climate impacts associated with the ozone hole are expected to reverse in the future. The concentration of greenhouse gases will, however, continue to increase. Similarly to the ozone hole, rising greenhouse gas concentrations are associated with a shift of the SAM towards its positive phase. Thus the effects of increased greenhouse gases and ozone recovery are predicted to counteract in the future. For meaningful climate projections, a detailed characterization of ozone hole induced climate change signals is, therefore, essential. However, a precise attribution of climate change signals to the Antarctic ozone hole is complicated due to simultaneous atmospheric composition changes and natural climate variability. In this thesis, idealized timeslice simulations were performed with the ICOsahedral Non-hydrostatic model with Aerosols and Reactive Trace gases (ICON-ART) to investigate ozone hole induced climate change signals isolated from other perturbations of the climate system. Further, the impact of natural climate variability is assessed. Our model results show robust summertime near-surface temperature changes caused by the ozone hole that are characterized by more complex warming and cooling patterns than previous studies suggest. While those studies attributed a large fraction of the detected signal to a shift in the SAM, the ICON-ART results indicate near-surface temperature changes that are not entirely caused by changes of the SAM. The decreased impact of the SAM in the ICON-ART model could result from a weaker, more realistic response of the SAM to external forcing that is commonly overestimated in other chemistry-climate models. Analysis of the SAMs variability shows more persistent SAM anomalies due to the ozone hole and a decreased persistence for future climate. As persistent stratospheric SAM anomalies have a potential impact on tropospheric SAM characteristics and thus near surface meteorology, a prediction metric was calculated to investigate the skill of SAM anomalies at different altitudes in predicting the averaged near-surface SAM one month in advance. Our calculations show that there is a strong decrease in stratospheric predictability for future simulations, regardless of the ozone recovery. The decreased stratospheric influence on the tropospheric SAM will likely affect the quality of extended range weather forecasts in the future

Unusual chlorine partitioning in the 2015/16 Arctic winter lowermost stratosphere: Observations and simulations

The Arctic winter 2015/16 was characterized by cold stratospheric temperatures. Here we present a comprehensive view of the temporal evolution of chlorine in the lowermost stratosphere over the course of the studied winter. We utilize two-dimensional vertical cross sections of ozone (\chem{O_3}) and chlorine nitrate (\chem{ClONO_2}), measured by the airborne limb imager GLORIA (Gimballed Limb Observer for Radiance Imaging of the Atmosphere) during the POLSTRACC/GW-LCYCLE~II/GWEX/SALSA campaigns, to investigate the tropopause region in detail. Observations from three long-distance flights in January, February, and March~2016 are discussed. \chem{ClONO_2} volume mixing ratios up to 1100\,pptv were measured at 380\,K potential temperature in mesoscale structures. Similar mesoscale structures are also visible in \chem{O_3} measurements. Both trace gas measurements are applied to evaluate simulation results from the chemistry transport model CLaMS (Chemical Lagrangian Model of the Stratosphere) and the chemistry--climate model EMAC (ECHAM5/MESSy Atmospheric Chemistry). These comparisons show agreement within the expected performance of these models. Satellite measurements from Aura/MLS (Microwave Limb Sounder) and SCISAT/ACE-FTS (Atmospheric Chemistry Experiment -- Fourier Transform Spectrometer) provide an overview over the whole winter and information about the stratospheric situation above the flight altitude. Time series of these satellite measurements reveal unusually low hydrochloric acid (HCl) and \chem{ClONO_2} at 380\,K from the beginning of January to the end of February~2016, while chlorine monoxide (ClO) is strongly enhanced. In March~2016, unusually rapid chlorine deactivation into HCl is observed instead of deactivation into \chem{ClONO_2}, the more typical pathway for deactivation in the Arctic. Chlorine deactivation observed in the satellite time series is well reproduced by CLaMS. Sensitivity simulations with CLaMS demonstrate the influence of low abundances of \chem{O_3} and reactive nitrogen (\chem{NO_\mathit{y}}) due to ozone depletion and sedimentation of \chem{NO_\mathit{y}}-containing particles, respectively. On the basis of the different altitude and time ranges of these effects, we conclude that the substantial chlorine deactivation into HCl at 380\,K arose as a result of very low ozone abundances together with low temperatures. Additionally, CLaMS estimates ozone depletion of at least 0.4\,ppmv at 380\,K and 1.75\,ppmv at 490\,K, which is comparable to other extremely cold Arctic winters. We have used CLaMS trajectories to analyze the history of enhanced \chem{ClONO_2} measured by GLORIA. In February, most of the enhanced \chem{ClONO_2} is traced back to chlorine deactivation that had occurred within the past few days prior to the GLORIA measurement. In March, after the final warming, air masses in which chlorine has previously been deactivated into \chem{ClONO_2} have been transported in the remnants of the polar vortex towards the location of measurement for at least~11\,d

Mutations in KEOPS-Complex Genes Cause Nephrotic Syndrome with Primary Microcephaly

Galloway-Mowat syndrome (GAMOS) is an autosomal-recessive disease characterized by the combination of early-onset nephrotic syndrome (SRNS) and microcephaly with brain anomalies. Here we identified recessive mutations in OSGEP, TP53RK, TPRKB, and LAGE3, genes encoding the four subunits of the KEOPS complex, in 37 individuals from 32 families with GAMOS. CRISPR-Cas9 knockout in zebrafish and mice recapitulated the human phenotype of primary microcephaly and resulted in early lethality. Knockdown of OSGEP, TP53RK, or TPRKB inhibited cell proliferation, which human mutations did not rescue. Furthermore, knockdown of these genes impaired protein translation, caused endoplasmic reticulum stress, activated DNA-damage-response signaling, and ultimately induced apoptosis. Knockdown of OSGEP or TP53RK induced defects in the actin cytoskeleton and decreased the migration rate of human podocytes, an established intermediate phenotype of SRNS. We thus identified four new monogenic causes of GAMOS, describe a link between KEOPS function and human disease, and delineate potential pathogenic mechanisms

Large expert-curated database for benchmarking document similarity detection in biomedical literature search

Document recommendation systems for locating relevant literature have mostly relied on methods developed a decade ago. This is largely due to the lack of a large offline gold-standard benchmark of relevant documents that cover a variety of research fields such that newly developed literature search techniques can be compared, improved and translated into practice. To overcome this bottleneck, we have established the RElevant LIterature SearcH consortium consisting of more than 1500 scientists from 84 countries, who have collectively annotated the relevance of over 180 000 PubMed-listed articles with regard to their respective seed (input) article/s. The majority of annotations were contributed by highly experienced, original authors of the seed articles. The collected data cover 76% of all unique PubMed Medical Subject Headings descriptors. No systematic biases were observed across different experience levels, research fields or time spent on annotations. More importantly, annotations of the same document pairs contributed by different scientists were highly concordant. We further show that the three representative baseline methods used to generate recommended articles for evaluation (Okapi Best Matching 25, Term Frequency-Inverse Document Frequency and PubMed Related Articles) had similar overall performances. Additionally, we found that these methods each tend to produce distinct collections of recommended articles, suggesting that a hybrid method may be required to completely capture all relevant articles. The established database server located at https://relishdb.ict.griffith.edu.au is freely available for the downloading of annotation data and the blind testing of new methods. We expect that this benchmark will be useful for stimulating the development of new powerful techniques for title and title/abstract-based search engines for relevant articles in biomedical research.Peer reviewe

Nitrification of the lowermost stratosphere during the exceptionally cold Arctic winter 2015

Observation of nitrification of the lowermost stratosphere during the cold Arctic winter 2015 using the Research aircaraft HALO

Nitrification of the lowermost stratosphere during the exceptionally cold Arctic winter 2015/16

The Arctic winter 2015/16 was characterized by exceptionally cold stratospheric temperatures, favouring the formation of polar stratospheric clouds (PSCs) from mid-December until the end of February down to low stratospheric altitudes. Observations by GLORIA (Gimballed Limb Observer for Radiance Imaging of the Atmosphere) on HALO (High Altitude and LOng range research aircraft) during the PGS (POLSTRACC/GW-LCYLCE II/SALSA) campaign from December 2015 to March 2016 allow an investigation of the influence of denitrification on the lowermost stratosphere (LMS) with a high spatial resolution. For the first time vertical cross-sections of nitric acid (HNO3) along the flight track and tracer-tracer correlations derived from the GLORIA observations document detailed pictures of wide-spread nitrification of the Arctic LMS during the course of an entire winter. GLORIA observations show large-scale structures and local fine structures with strongly enhanced absolute HNO3 volume mixing ratios reaching up to 11 ppbv at altitudes of 11 km in January and nitrified filaments persisting until the middle of March. Narrow streaks of enhanced HNO3, observed in mid-January, are interpreted as regions recently nitrified by sublimating HNO3-containing particles. Overall, a nitrification of the LMS between 5.0 ppbv and 7.0 ppbv at potential temperature levels between 350 and 380 K is estimated. This extent of nitrification has never been observed before in the Arctic lowermost stratosphere. The GLORIA observations are compared with CLaMS (Chemical Lagrangian Model of the Stratosphere) simulations. The fundamental structures observed by GLORIA are well reproduced, but differences in the fine structures are diagnosed. Further, CLaMS predominantly underestimates the spatial extent of maximum HNO3 mixing ratios derived from the GLORIA observations as well as the enhancement at lower altitudes. Sensitivity simulations with CLaMS including (i) enhanced sedimentation rates in case of ice supersaturation (to resemble ice nucleation on NAT), (ii) a global temperature offset, (iii) modified growth rates (to resemble aspherical particles with larger surfaces) and (iv) temperature fluctuations (to resemble the impact of small-scale mountain waves) mostly improve the agreement with the GLORIA observations. The sensitivity simulations suggest that details of particle microphysics play a significant role for simulated LMS nitrification in January, while air subsidence, transport and mixing become increasingly important towards the end of the winter

Improvement of Signs and Symptoms of Nonradiographic Axial Spondyloarthritis in Patients Treated With Secukinumab: Primary Results of a Randomized, Placebo-Controlled Phase III Study

Objective: To report the primary (1-year) results from PREVENT, the first phase III study evaluating secukinumab in patients with active nonradiographic axial spondyloarthritis (SpA). Methods: A total of 555 patients were randomized (1:1:1) to receive subcutaneous secukinumab 150 mg with a loading dose (loading dose [LD] group), secukinumab 150 mg without a loading dose (non–loading dose [NL] group), or placebo weekly and then every 4 weeks starting at week 4. The NL group received placebo at weeks 1, 2, and 3 to maintain blinding. Switch to open-label secukinumab or standard of care was permitted after week 20. The study had 2 independent analysis plans, per European Union and non-US (plan A; week 16) and US (plan B; week 52) regulatory requirements. The primary end point was 40% improvement in disease activity according to the Assessment of SpondyloArthritis international Society (ASAS40) criteria at week 16 (in the LD group) and at week 52 (in the NL group) in tumor necrosis factor inhibitor (TNFi)–naive patients. Safety analyses included all patients who received ≥1 dose of study treatment. Results: Overall, 481 patients completed 52 weeks of treatment, including 84.3% (156 of 185) in the LD group, 89.7% (165 of 184) in the NL group, and 86.0% (160 of 186) in the placebo group. The proportion of patients who switched to open-label or standard of care between weeks 20 and 48 was 50.8% in the LD group, 47.3% in the NL group, and 64.0% in the placebo group. Both primary and all secondary end points were met at week 16. The proportion of TNFi-naive patients who met ASAS40 was significantly higher for LD at week 16 (41.5%) and NL at week 52 (39.8%) versus placebo (29.2% at week 16 and 19.9% at week 52; both P < 0.05). No new safety findings were reported. Conclusion: Our findings indicate that secukinumab 150 mg provides significant and sustained improvement in signs and symptoms of nonradiographic axial SpA through 52 weeks. Safety was consistent with previous reports