College Football Rankings and Market Efficiency

The results in this paper show that various college football ranking systems have useful independent information for predicting the outcomes of games. Optimal weights for the systems are estimated, and the use of these weights produces a predictive system that is more accurate than any of the individual systems. The results also provide a fairly precise estimate of the size of the home field advantage. These results may be of interest to the Bowl Championship Series in choosing which teams to play in the national championship game. The results also show, however, that none of the systems, including the optimal combination, contains any useful information that is not in the final Las Vegas point spread. It is argued in the paper that this is a fairly strong test of the efficiency of the college football betting market.Football rankings, Predictive information

Respiratory Syncytial Virus Matrix Protein Induces Lung Epithelial Cell Cycle Arrest through a p53 Dependent Pathway

Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is the major cause of viral respiratory infections in children. Our previous study showed that the RSV infection induced lung epithelial cell cycle arrest, which enhanced virus replication. To address the mechanism of RSV-induced cell cycle arrest, we examined the contribution of RSV-matrix (RSV-M) protein. In this report, we show that in both the A549 cell line and primary human bronchial epithelial (PHBE) cells, transfection with RSV-M protein caused the cells to proliferate at a slower rate than in control cells. The cell cycle analysis showed that RSV-M protein induced G1 phase arrest in A549 cells, and G1 and G2/M phase arrest in PHBE cells. Interestingly, RSV-M expression induced p53 and p21 accumulation and decreased phosphorylation of retinoblastoma protein (Rb). Further, induction of cell cycle arrest by RSV-M was not observed in a p53-deficient epithelial cell line (H1299). However, cell cycle arrest was restored after transfection of p53 cDNA into H1299 cells. Taken together, these results indicate that RSV-M protein regulates lung epithelial cell cycle through a p53-dependent pathway, which enhances RSV replication

Large expert-curated database for benchmarking document similarity detection in biomedical literature search

Document recommendation systems for locating relevant literature have mostly relied on methods developed a decade ago. This is largely due to the lack of a large offline gold-standard benchmark of relevant documents that cover a variety of research fields such that newly developed literature search techniques can be compared, improved and translated into practice. To overcome this bottleneck, we have established the RElevant LIterature SearcH consortium consisting of more than 1500 scientists from 84 countries, who have collectively annotated the relevance of over 180 000 PubMed-listed articles with regard to their respective seed (input) article/s. The majority of annotations were contributed by highly experienced, original authors of the seed articles. The collected data cover 76% of all unique PubMed Medical Subject Headings descriptors. No systematic biases were observed across different experience levels, research fields or time spent on annotations. More importantly, annotations of the same document pairs contributed by different scientists were highly concordant. We further show that the three representative baseline methods used to generate recommended articles for evaluation (Okapi Best Matching 25, Term Frequency-Inverse Document Frequency and PubMed Related Articles) had similar overall performances. Additionally, we found that these methods each tend to produce distinct collections of recommended articles, suggesting that a hybrid method may be required to completely capture all relevant articles. The established database server located at https://relishdb.ict.griffith.edu.au is freely available for the downloading of annotation data and the blind testing of new methods. We expect that this benchmark will be useful for stimulating the development of new powerful techniques for title and title/abstract-based search engines for relevant articles in biomedical research.Peer reviewe

The Causal Effect of Paternal Unemployment on Children's Personality

Using longitudinal data from the German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP), we show that paternal unemployment has a surprisingly positive causal effect on the "Big 5" personality traits of children aged 17 to 25. In particular, our results from longitudinal value-added models for personality suggest that paternal unemployment makes children significantly more conscientious and less neurotic. Our results are robust to different estimation methods and to selection on unobservables. Furthermore, these effects are stronger for girls and for children whose mothers are employed

College Football Rankings and Market Efficiency

The results in this paper show that various college football ranking sys-tems have useful independent information for predicting the outcomes of games. Optimal weights for the systems are estimated, and the use of these weights produces a predictive system that is more accurate than any of the individual systems. The results also provide a fairly precise estimate of the size of the home field advantage. These results may be of interest to the Bowl Championship Series in choosing which teams to play in the national championship game. The results also show, however, that none of the systems, including the optimal combination, contains any useful information that is not in the final Las Vegas point spread. It is argued in the paper that this is a fairly strong test of the efficiency of the college football betting market.

College Football Rankings and Market Efficiency

The results in this paper show that various college football ranking systems have useful independent information for predicting the outcomes of games. Optimal weights for the systems are estimated, and the use of these weights produces a predictive system that is more accurate than any of the individual systems. The results also provide a fairly precise estimate of the size of the home field advantage. These results may be of interest to the Bowl Championship Series in choosing which teams to play in the national championship game