Supply market uncertainty:exploring consequences and responses within sustainability transitions

Often it is commercial, not technological, factors which hinder the adoption of potentially valuable innovations. In energy policy, much attention is given to analysing and incentivising consumer demand for renewable energy, but new technologies may also need new supply markets, to provide products and services to build, operate and maintain the innovative technology. This paper addresses the impact of supply constraints on the long-term viability of sustainability related innovations, using the case of bioenergy from organic waste. Uncertainties in the pricing and availability of feedstock (i.e. waste) may generate market deadlock and deter potential investors. We draw on prior research to conceptualise the problem, and identify what steps might be taken to address it. We propose a research agenda aimed at purchasing and supply scholars and centred on the need to understand better the interplay between market evolution and supply uncertainty and 'market shaping' - how stakeholders can legitimately influence supply market evolution - to support the adoption of sustainability related innovation

Some physical drivers of changes in the winter storm tracks over the North Atlantic and Mediterranean during the Holocene

The winter climate of Europe and the Mediterranean is dominated by the weather systems of the mid-latitude storm tracks. The behaviour of the storm tracks is highly variable, particularly in the eastern North Atlantic, and has a profound impact on the hydroclimate of the Mediterranean region. A deeper understanding of the storm tracks and the factors that drive them is therefore crucial for interpreting past changes in Mediterranean climate and the civilizations it has supported over the last 12 000 years (broadly the Holocene period). This paper presents a discussion of how changes in climate forcing (e.g. orbital variations, greenhouse gases, ice sheet cover) may have impacted on the ‘basic ingredients’ controlling the mid-latitude storm tracks over the North Atlantic and the Mediterranean on intermillennial time scales. Idealized simulations using the HadAM3 atmospheric general circulation model (GCM) are used to explore the basic processes, while a series of timeslice simulations from a similar atmospheric GCM coupled to a thermodynamic slab ocean (HadSM3) are examined to identify the impact these drivers have on the storm track during the Holocene. The results suggest that the North Atlantic storm track has moved northward and strengthened with time since the Early to Mid-Holocene. In contrast, the Mediterranean storm track may have weakened over the same period. It is, however, emphasized that much remains still to be understood about the evolution of the North Atlantic and Mediterranean storm tracks during the Holocene period