The declining performance of the oil sector : Implications for global climate change mitigation

Unidad de excelencia María de Maeztu CEX2019-000940-MAltres ajuts: Acord transformatiu CRUE-CSICThis article presents a relational analysis of the performance of the petroleum sector in the context of climate change mitigation. The oil sector is described as a complex network of transformations carried out by structural and functional elements, exploiting different types of crude oils. Energy carrier requirements and emissions of viable sequential pathways of extraction and refining are assessed and scaled across different levels of organization, using the concept of metabolic processor. Based on the analysis of seventy-one oil fields around the world - about 25% of global production - we provide a diagnostic analysis of the current state and explore possible scenarios simulating the progressive aging of conventional oil sources and an increasing exploitation of unconventional crudes. Results show how future oil exploitation will be more energy intensive, entailing an increase of emissions per barrel in the range of 6-26% over the baseline, depending on the simulation. Under the existing policy frameworks and international pledges, this increase will translate into an amount of extra CO comparable to entire European economic sectors. Implications of our findings for future energy policies are discussed and the need to complement Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) with more robust methodologies is emphasized. It is concluded that the declining performance of the oil sector could potentially undermine the plausibility of global low-carbon aspirations

Knowledge claims in European Union energy policies : Unknown knowns and uncomfortable awareness

Altres ajuts: acords transformatius de la UABUnidad de excelencia María de Maeztu CEX2019-000940-MDespite the concerted efforts of the scientific community and politicians to contain greenhouse gas emissions, the CO level in the atmosphere continues to increase monotonically. This raises the question whether the scientific representations and related knowledge claims used to inform energy policy have been incomplete or incorrect. Are there alternative relevant knowledge claims that have been overlooked or ignored in the discussion of energy policies and if so, why? We answer these questions by elaborating three case studies, energy efficiency improvements, liquid biofuels, and decarbonization of electricity, and using a novel procedure for quality checking policy narratives that is based in post-normal science and developed in the EU project Moving Towards Adaptive Governance in Complexity: Informing NEXUS Security (MAGIC). The focus of our approach is on the coherence of the why (concerns or justifications), what ("solution"), and how ("scientific evidence") of energy policies. We show that for all cases studied alternative knowledge claims, mostly derived from the relatively new field of non-equilibrium thermodynamics, would be available for better informing energy policy, but that they are unknown knowns in the chosen framing of the issues. We conclude that the idea that the various concerns identified in EU energy policy can be solved simultaneously is unrealistic. This idea can only persist by virtue of banishing uncomfortable knowledge and the creation of implausible socio-technical imaginaries. When considering different aspects of the problem and integrating different narratives and knowledge claims, a smooth and painless transition to a zero-carbon economy seems unlikely

A societal metabolism approach to effectively analyze the water-energy-food nexus in an agricultural transboundary river basin

Unidad de excelencia María de Maeztu CEX2019-000940-MWe implemented the semantically open conceptual framework 'Multi-Scale Integrated Analysis of Societal and Ecosystem Metabolism' (MuSIASEM) to deal with nexus challenges in agricultural production systems in transboundary river basins, using the Iranian Aras River Basin as a case study. The performance of the agricultural sector was characterized for relevant typologies of crop production using metabolic profiles, i.e., inputs and outputs per ton of crop produced, per hectare of land use, and per hour of labor. This analysis was contextualized across hierarchical levels of analysis, including the agronomic context at the regional level (rainfed versus irrigated cultivation), the socio-economic and political context at the national level (food sovereignty; urbanization), and the hydro-ecological context of the larger transboundary river basin (water constraints, GHG emissions). We found that the simultaneous use of two different interrelated logics of aggregation-the productivity of land and labor (relevant for the agronomic and socio-economic dimension) and the density of flows under different land uses (relevant for the hydrological and ecological dimension)-allowed for the identification of trade-offs in policy deliberations. In the case of Iran, it showed that striving for strategic autonomy will exacerbate the current water crisis; with the current cropping patterns, agronomic improvements will not suffice to avert a water crisis. It was concluded that the proposed approach fills an important gap in nexus research, but to effectively guide nexus governance in the region, a co-production of the analysis with social actors as well as more complete data sets at the river basin level would be essential

Multi-scale integrated evaluation of the sustainability of large-scale use of alternative feeds in salmon aquaculture

The steady increase in production volume of salmon aquaculture has sharpened concerns about its sustainability. In particular the production of salmon feed is a reason for concern given its reliance on scarce natural resources, such as wild fish captures. Multi-scale integrated analysis is put forward as a tool to anticipate the environmental and socio-economic impacts of large-scale implementation of alternative salmon feeds, considering both plant and insect sources as potential replacements of fish meal and fish oil. The proposed accounting framework, based on relational analysis across hierarchical levels, describes the patterns of required inputs using biophysical and economic variables. It also considers the inputs used by external systems for the production of imported feed, thus providing a coherent assessment of the sustainability of the production system in terms of feasibility, viability, and desirability. The analytical tool-kit is illustrated in conceptual terms and then applied to the Norwegian salmon aquaculture, both in diagnostic (describing the actual situation) and anticipatory mode (examining feed scenarios). Results are used in an exercise of quantitative story-telling to check the quality of the narratives currently shaping policy discussions on aquaculture. Quantitative story-telling is a heuristic approach aimed at checking the robustness of knowledge claims in face of uncertainty. It is concluded that rearing insects in the salmon feed production chain enlarges the option space of feed sources by opening up the possibility of using locally-produced seaweed and organic waste, but also raises the level of uncertainty with regard to the possible insurgence of negative side effects.publishedVersio

The profile of time allocation in the metabolic pattern of society : an internal biophysical limit to economic growth

Unidad de excelencia María de Maeztu CEX2019-000940-MAltres ajuts: acords transformatius de la UABWe show that shortage of human activity may represent an internal constraint to economic growth as relevant as external resource and sink constraints. Human time is required, both inside and outside the market, to produce and consume the goods and services needed to sustain societal metabolism. The time allocation profile is therefore an emergent property of the societal metabolic pattern. When most time is invested in services and final consumption rather than supplying the inputs required by the metabolic process, further growth is constrained. This problem may be temporarily overcome by three strategies: (i) increasing capital investment to boost labor productivity in the productive sectors; (ii) externalizing the requirement of working hours through imports of goods and services; (iii) importing economically active population through immigration. Each strategy is illustrated with an empirical example: (i) a comparison of the evolution of the profile of time and capital allocation between China and the EU;(ii) an assessment of the labor hours embodied in EU imports; (iii) an analysis of demographic changes in response to immigration in Spain. While these strategies can temporarily overcome constraints to economic growth at the national level, they do not represent a long-term solution at the global level

Analyzing the energy performance of manufacturing across levels using the end-use matrix

Unidad de excelencia María de Maeztu MdM-2015-0552Within the context of the controversial use of the concept energy intensity to assess national energy performance, this paper proposes an innovative accounting framework: the energy end-use matrix. This tool integrates quantitative assessments of energy use of the various constituent compartments of socioeconomic systems. More specifically it identifies, moving across levels of analysis, what compartments (or sub-compartments) are using what type of energy carriers for what type of end-use. This analysis is integrated with an assessment of labor requirements and the associated flows of value added. The enduse matrix thus integrates in a coherent way quantitative assessments across different dimensions and hierarchical scales and facilitates the development of integrated sets of indicators. In this way it contributes to a multi-criteria characterization of national or sectoral energy performance. The tool is illustrated with an analysis of three EU countries: Bulgaria, Finland and Spain. Challenges to improving the usefulness of biophysical analysis of the efficiency of the industrial sector are identified and discussed. Increasing the discriminatory power of quantitative analysis through better data standardization by statistical offices is the major challenge

Selenium status and cardiovascular risk factors in populations from different portuguese regions

Proceedings de 2 Conferências simultâneas: "International Conference on Natural Antioxidants and Lipid Peroxidation in Atherosclerosis and Cancer (ALPAC)" e "International Conference on Quality and Safety Aspects and Nutrition in Europe'95 (QSFNE), 22-25 Agosto 1995, Helsínquia, Finlândia.Selenium as a cofactor of glutathione peroxidase, which prevents lipid peroxidation in mammals, takes part in the direct protection of endothelial cells against reactive oxiygen species that have been implicated in atherogenesis; moreover, it is involved in the biosynthesis of arachidonic acid derivatives in platelets and in the regulation of lipoprotein cholesterol metabolism in human beings and in animal models. These aspects are relevant enough to conclude that low selenium status may be related to atherosclerosis and, consequently, to the occurrence of cardiovascular diseases. Clinical studies showed a decrease in plasma selenium of patient’s wilh congestive cardiomyopathy and/or myocardial infarction. A significant inverse correlation between plasma selenium and severity of coronary atherosclerosis was also reported in man. However, prospective epldemiological studies on the relationship between selenium and cardiovascular disease are rather controversial. The aim of this work was to compare the selenium status by determining serum levels of this element in inhabitants of two urban and one rural Portuguese regions.The relationship between serum selenium levels and generally accepted cardiovascular risk factors was also an objetive. In this context, serurn selenium and serum lipid parameters (total cholesterol, HDL cholesterol, LDL cholesterol and triglycerides) were evaluated. Age and sex as well as alcohol and tobacco consumption were also considered

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Special Issue and Book of: Ecology of Food and Nutritio