No-regret adaptation to climate change through management of glacial lakes in the Santa River Basin in Peru

Abstract and Poste

Progress and challenges in glacial lake outburst flood research (2017–2021):a research community perspective

Glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) are among the most concerning consequences of retreating glaciers in mountain ranges worldwide. GLOFs have attracted significant attention amongst scientists and practitioners in the past 2 decades, with particular interest in the physical drivers and mechanisms of GLOF hazard and in socioeconomic and other human-related developments that affect vulnerabilities to GLOF events. This increased research focus on GLOFs is reflected in the gradually increasing number of papers published annually. This study offers an overview of recent GLOF research by analysing 594 peer-reviewed GLOF studies published between 2017 and 2021 (Web of Science and Scopus databases), reviewing the content and geographical focus as well as other characteristics of GLOF studies. This review is complemented with perspectives from the first GLOF conference (7-9 July 2021, online) where a global GLOF research community of major mountain regions gathered to discuss the current state of the art of integrated GLOF research. Therefore, representatives from 17 countries identified and elaborated trends and challenges and proposed possible ways forward to navigate future GLOF research, in four thematic areas: (i) understanding GLOFs - timing and processes; (ii) modelling GLOFs and GLOF process chains; (iii) GLOF risk management, prevention and warning; and (iv) human dimensions of GLOFs and GLOF attribution to climate change.Fil: Emmer, Adam. University of Graz; AustriaFil: Allen, Simon K.. Universitat Zurich; Suiza. Universidad de Ginebra; SuizaFil: Carey, Mark. University of Oregon; Estados UnidosFil: Frey, Holger. Universitat Zurich; SuizaFil: Huggel, Christian. Universitat Zurich; SuizaFil: Korup, Oliver. Universitat Potsdam; AlemaniaFil: Mergili, Martin. University of Graz; AustriaFil: Sattar, Ashim. Universitat Zurich; SuizaFil: Veh, Georg. Universitat Potsdam; AlemaniaFil: Chen, Thomas Y.. Columbia University; Estados UnidosFil: Cook, Simon J.. University Of Dundee; Reino Unido. Unesco. Centre For Water Law, Policy And Science; Reino UnidoFil: Correas Gonzalez, Mariana. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Mendoza. Instituto Argentino de Nivología, Glaciología y Ciencias Ambientales. Provincia de Mendoza. Instituto Argentino de Nivología, Glaciología y Ciencias Ambientales. Universidad Nacional de Cuyo. Instituto Argentino de Nivología, Glaciología y Ciencias Ambientales; ArgentinaFil: Das, Soumik. Jawaharlal Nehru University; IndiaFil: Diaz Moreno, Alejandro. Reynolds International Ltd; Reino UnidoFil: Drenkhan, Fabian. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Perú; PerúFil: Fischer, Melanie. Universitat Potsdam; AlemaniaFil: Immerzeel, Walter W.. Utrecht University; Países BajosFil: Izagirre, Eñaut. Universidad del País Vasco; EspañaFil: Joshi, Ramesh Chandra. Kumaun University India; IndiaFil: Kougkoulos, Ioannis. American College Of Greece; GreciaFil: Kuyakanon Knapp, Riamsara. University of Oslo; Noruega. University of Cambridge; Estados UnidosFil: Li, Dongfeng. National University Of Singapore; SingapurFil: Majeed, Ulfat. University Of Kashmir; IndiaFil: Matti, Stephanie. Haskoli Islands; IslandiaFil: Moulton, Holly. University of Oregon; Estados UnidosFil: Nick, Faezeh. Utrecht University; Países BajosFil: Piroton, Valentine. Université de Liège; BélgicaFil: Rashid, Irfan. University Of Kashmir; IndiaFil: Reza, Masoom. Kumaun University India; IndiaFil: Ribeiro De Figueiredo, Anderson. Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul; BrasilFil: Riveros, Christian. Instituto Nacional de Investigación En Glaciares y Ecosistemas de Montaña; PerúFil: Shrestha, Finu. International Centre For Integrated Mountain Development Nepal; NepalFil: Shrestha, Milan. Arizona State University; Estados UnidosFil: Steiner, Jakob. International Centre For Integrated Mountain Development Nepal; NepalFil: Walker-Crawford, Noah. Colegio Universitario de Londres; Reino UnidoFil: Wood, Joanne L.. University of Exeter; Reino UnidoFil: Yde, Jacob C.. Western Norway University Of Applied Sciences; Suiz

Genome-Wide Association Study in BRCA1 Mutation Carriers Identifies Novel Loci Associated with Breast and Ovarian Cancer Risk

BRCA1-associated breast and ovarian cancer risks can be modified by common genetic variants. To identify further cancer risk-modifying loci, we performed a multi-stage GWAS of 11,705 BRCA1 carriers (of whom 5,920 were diagnosed with breast and 1,839 were diagnosed with ovarian cancer), with a further replication in an additional sample of 2,646 BRCA1 carriers. We identified a novel breast cancer risk modifier locus at 1q32 for BRCA1 carriers (rs2290854, P = 2.7×10-8, HR = 1.14, 95% CI: 1.09-1.20). In addition, we identified two novel ovarian cancer risk modifier loci: 17q21.31 (rs17631303, P = 1.4×10-8, HR = 1.27, 95% CI: 1.17-1.38) and 4q32.3 (rs4691139, P = 3.4×10-8, HR = 1.20, 95% CI: 1.17-1.38). The 4q32.3 locus was not associated with ovarian cancer risk in the general population or BRCA2 carriers, suggesting a BRCA1-specific associat

Finishing the euchromatic sequence of the human genome

The sequence of the human genome encodes the genetic instructions for human physiology, as well as rich information about human evolution. In 2001, the International Human Genome Sequencing Consortium reported a draft sequence of the euchromatic portion of the human genome. Since then, the international collaboration has worked to convert this draft into a genome sequence with high accuracy and nearly complete coverage. Here, we report the result of this finishing process. The current genome sequence (Build 35) contains 2.85 billion nucleotides interrupted by only 341 gaps. It covers ∼99% of the euchromatic genome and is accurate to an error rate of ∼1 event per 100,000 bases. Many of the remaining euchromatic gaps are associated with segmental duplications and will require focused work with new methods. The near-complete sequence, the first for a vertebrate, greatly improves the precision of biological analyses of the human genome including studies of gene number, birth and death. Notably, the human enome seems to encode only 20,000-25,000 protein-coding genes. The genome sequence reported here should serve as a firm foundation for biomedical research in the decades ahead

Large expert-curated database for benchmarking document similarity detection in biomedical literature search

Document recommendation systems for locating relevant literature have mostly relied on methods developed a decade ago. This is largely due to the lack of a large offline gold-standard benchmark of relevant documents that cover a variety of research fields such that newly developed literature search techniques can be compared, improved and translated into practice. To overcome this bottleneck, we have established the RElevant LIterature SearcH consortium consisting of more than 1500 scientists from 84 countries, who have collectively annotated the relevance of over 180 000 PubMed-listed articles with regard to their respective seed (input) article/s. The majority of annotations were contributed by highly experienced, original authors of the seed articles. The collected data cover 76% of all unique PubMed Medical Subject Headings descriptors. No systematic biases were observed across different experience levels, research fields or time spent on annotations. More importantly, annotations of the same document pairs contributed by different scientists were highly concordant. We further show that the three representative baseline methods used to generate recommended articles for evaluation (Okapi Best Matching 25, Term Frequency-Inverse Document Frequency and PubMed Related Articles) had similar overall performances. Additionally, we found that these methods each tend to produce distinct collections of recommended articles, suggesting that a hybrid method may be required to completely capture all relevant articles. The established database server located at https://relishdb.ict.griffith.edu.au is freely available for the downloading of annotation data and the blind testing of new methods. We expect that this benchmark will be useful for stimulating the development of new powerful techniques for title and title/abstract-based search engines for relevant articles in biomedical research.Peer reviewe

Anthropogenic climate change and glacier lake outburst flood risk: local and global drivers and responsibilities for the case of lake Palcacocha, Peru

Evidence of observed negative impacts on natural and human systems from anthropogenic climate change is increasing. However, human systems in particular are dynamic and influenced by multiple drivers and hence identifying an anthropogenic climate signal is challenging. Here we analyze the case of lake Palcacocha in the Andes of Peru, which offers a representative model for other glacier lakes and related risks around the world because it features a dynamic evolution of flood risk driven by physical and socioeconomic factors and processes. Furthermore, it is the object of a prominent climate litigation case, wherein a local Peruvian citizen sued a large German energy producer over risk of flooding from lake Palcacocha. Adopting a conceptual model of cascading impacts and multiple drivers of risk, we first study climatic and other geophysical drivers of flood risk. We find that an anthropogenic signal from flood risk to greenhouse gas emissions is traceable. In parallel, flood risk has been strongly shaped (and increased) by interacting socioeconomic, institutional and cultural processes over the past few decades. The case raises important questions about the differentiation of responsibilities relating to flood risk of both global and local agents, which are, however, difficult to address in cases like Palcacocha, where we reveal a complex network of interlinked global, national and local drivers. Following from this, we outline a normative framework with a differentiated perspective on responsibility, implying that global emitters commit to support strengthening capacities in affected regions and localities and that local institutions and societies engage in local risk reduction measures and policies in collaboration with and driven by local communities

Jeopardised futures: scanning the horizon in a changing climate

In this chapter, Annist et al. present several case studies of the ways in which people articulate their concerns for the future, particularly in response to the emerging discourse of climate change. The authors provide an overview of the anthropology of the future and the ways in which it merges with climate topics, to consider how contemporary horizons are crowded with different concerns, placed at different distances, which come into focus according to the immediacy of the need to respond. As awareness of the climate crisis increases, this becomes spotlighted, galvanising emotions and actions. Such a spotlight can, however, come at the expense of seeing it in the context of concurrent environmental and more mundane crises. It is only, they argue, through simultaneous attention to the broader landscape of multiple concerns showing the interlinkages of crises people face that enables properly understanding and articulating the future

Losses and damages connected to glacier retreat in the Cordillera Blanca, Peru

The mountain cryosphere is one of the strongest affected systems by climate change. Glacier shrinkage leads to cascading impacts, including changes in river flow regimes, availability of water resources for downstream populations and economy, changes in the occurrence and severity of natural hazards, and cultural changes associated with landscape character and identity. In this study, we analyze impacts of mountain cryosphere change through a lens of Loss and Damage (L&D), a mechanism of international climate policy that tries to evaluate and reduce negative consequences of climate change for societies. We analyze the effects of climate change on glacier change, glacier lake formation and growth, hydrological regimes, and associated impacts on human societies in the Cordillera Blanca in the Peruvian Andes, now and under future scenarios. We use various methods such as literature review, glacial lake outburst flood, and hydrologic modeling to examine three major dimensions of cryospheric change and associated human impacts: (i) ice loss; (ii) glacial hazards; and (iii) variability of water availability. We identify the damage and losses in terms of the number of people affected by glacial hazards, monetized agricultural crop loss due to water loss, and non-economic values local people attribute to glacier loss. We find that different levels of warming have important negative but differentiated effects on natural and human systems. We also contend that the extent of loss and damage will largely be determined by governance and adaptation decisions such as water resource management and disaster risk management. We suggest that these lines of evidence are more explicitly taken into account in L&D policies

Anthropogenic climate change and glacier lake outburst flood risk: local and global drivers and responsibilities for the case of lake Palcacocha, Peru

Evidence of observed negative impacts on natural and human systems from anthropogenic climate change is increasing. However, human systems in particular are dynamic and influenced by multiple drivers and hence identifying an anthropogenic climate signal is challenging. Here we analyze the case of lake Palcacocha in the Andes of Peru, which offers a representative model for other glacier lakes and related risks around the world because it features a dynamic evolution of flood risk driven by physical and socioeconomic factors and processes. Furthermore, it is the object of a prominent climate litigation case, wherein a local Peruvian citizen sued a large German energy producer over risk of flooding from lake Palcacocha. Adopting a conceptual model of cascading impacts and multiple drivers of risk, we first study climatic and other geophysical drivers of flood risk. We find that an anthropogenic signal from flood risk to greenhouse gas emissions is traceable. In parallel, flood risk has been strongly shaped (and increased) by interacting socioeconomic, institutional and cultural processes over the past few decades. The case raises important questions about the differentiation of responsibilities relating to flood risk of both global and local agents, which are, however, difficult to address in cases like Palcacocha, where we reveal a complex network of interlinked global, national and local drivers. Following from this, we outline a normative framework with a differentiated perspective on responsibility, implying that global emitters commit to support strengthening capacities in affected regions and localities and that local institutions and societies engage in local risk reduction measures and policies in collaboration with and driven by local communities