Challenges of Ethiopian Researchers and Potential Mitigation with Ethiopian Science, Technology and Innovation Policy

Most of the developed countries attain high-tech industry and economy by investing substantial amount of resources and by having a strong policy on research. The Government of Ethiopia established the Growth and Transformation Plan (GTP I) by as a strategic framework focusing on the agricultural sector from 2011 to 2015 with target growth value of 8.1%. In the second term of GTP II has given high priority for industrial development. To achieve the GTP II and to sustain the development mainly for future, research and development is a pillar for economic development and to innovate the nation. However, in Ethiopia the activity in research is moving at a slow pace and is facing many challenges. The objective of this study is to identify the challenges of Ethiopian researchers, to carry out research into their institutions and/or universities from the perspective of the researchers and government strategies to support the GTP and realise the National Science, Technology and Innovation Policy published in 2012. The challenges which are faced by the researchers have been investigated using primary data collected by structured questions from 200 researchers across Ethiopian universities and research institutes. The research identified and quantified the major challenges in human resources development, availability of research facilities, communication of research output, government strategies for research and the motivation for the research. Furthermore, the paper analysed the identified challenges with respect to Ethiopia Science, Technology and Innovation Policy (ESTIP) which published in 2012. The paper has also reviewed the correlation between the identified challenges, GTP I and ESTIP

Behavior of a CI Engine Running by Biodiesel under Transient Conditions

The emission characteristics of compression ignition (CI) engines running on biodiesel during transient operating conditions, which is the most usual case in urban and extra-urban transportation, have rarely been investigated. In the present study an experimental investigation on emission characteristics of a CI engine has been carried out both under steady state and transient operating conditions. The experimental work has been carried out on CI engine, which is integrated with transient testing facility. This facility is capable of varying the engine speed and load over a given time period. To measure the engine emissions, an emission analyser has been used to measure CO2, CO, THC, and NOx emissions. The fuels used in the analyses are 25% (25B) and 100% (100B) of biodiesel blend and diesel. The series of the transient events studied are speed changes from 900 to 1200rpm, 1200 to 1500rpm and 1500 to 1800rpm over a time period of 4 seconds each. These tests were performed at a constant load of 105Nm, 210Nm, 315Nm and 420Nm. The transient test results have shown that the emissions of CI engine running on biodiesel were reduced by up to 17%, 52% and 38% for CO, CO2 and THC emissions respectively as compared to diesel fuel. However, the NOx emission was seen to be 17% higher for engine running on biodiesel than that on diesel during transient conditions

Investigations into the performance and emission characteristics of a biodiesel fuelled CI engine under steady and transient operating conditions

The stringent emission laws, the depletion of petroleum reserves and the relation of fuels with politics have forced the world to find alternatives to fossil fuels. Biodiesel is one of the biofuels which is renewable and environmentally friendly and can be used in diesel engines with little or no modifications. For the last two decades, many researchers have reported extensive work on the performance and emission characteristics of engines running with biodiesel during steady state operation. However, there are numbers of knowledge gaps that have been identified which include limited information on biodiesel physio-chemical properties and their effects on combustion behaviour and performance and emission characteristics of the engine. In this study after an exhaustive literature review, the following four research areas have been identified and investigated extensively using available numerical and experimental means. The initial focus was to investigate the most important properties of biodiesel such as density, viscosity and lower heating value using experimental and numerical techniques. The effects of biodiesel blend content on the physical properties were analysed. For each property, prediction models were developed and compared with current models available in literature. New density and viscosity prediction models were developed by considering the combined effect of biodiesel content and temperature. All the empirical models have showed a fair degree of accuracy in estimating the physical properties of biodiesel in comparison to the experimental results. Finally, the effects of density and viscosity on the fuel supply system were investigated. This system includes the fuel filter, fuel pump and the engine combustion chamber in which air-fuel mixing behaviour was studied numerically. These models can be used to understand the effects of changes in the physical properties of the fuel on the fuel supply system. In addition, the fuel supply system analysis can be carried out during the design stage of fuel pump, fuel filter and injection system. The second research objective was the investigation into a CI engine’s combustion characteristics as well as performance and emissions characteristics under both the steady and transient conditions when fuelled with biodiesel blends. The effects of biodiesel content on the CI engine’s in-cylinder pressure, brake specific fuel consumption, thermal efficiency and emissions (CO2, NOx, CO, THC) were evaluated based on experimental results. It has been seen that the CI engine running with the biodiesel resulted in acceptable engine performance as well as reduction in main emissions (except NOx). Following this study, a detailed analysis on the transient performance and emission output of the CI engine has been carried out. During this analysis, the emission changing rate is investigated during speed transient and torque transition stages. Further to this, a transient emission prediction model has been developed using associated steady and transient emission data. The model has been shown to predict the transient emission reasonably accurately. The third research objective was to develop a method for on-line measurement of NOx emission. For this purpose the in-cylinder pressure generated within a CI engine has been measured experimentally along with mass air flow and these parameters have been used in the development of a NOx prediction model. This model has been validated using experimental data obtained from a NOx emission analyzer. The predicted data obtained from NOx prediction model has been compared with measured data and has shown that the deviation is within acceptable range. The final research objective was to develop a simple, reliable and low-cost novel method to reduce the NOx emission of the CI engine when using biodiesel blends. A potential solution to this problem has been found to be in the form of direct water injection which has shown to be capable to reduce NOx emission. Using a water injection technique, the performance and emission(NOx and CO) characteristics of a CI engine fuelled with biodiesel has been investigated at varying water injection flow rates. Intake manifold water injection reduces NOx emission by up to 40% over the entire operating range without compromising the performance characteristics of the CI engineEThOS - Electronic Theses Online ServiceGBUnited Kingdo

Prediction of metal pm emission in rail tracks for condition monitoring application

Exposure to particulate material (PM) is a major health concern in megacities across the world which use trains as a primary public transport. PM emissions caused by railway traffic have hardly been investigated in the past, due to their obviously minor influence on the atmospheric air quality compared to automotive transport. However, the electrical train releases particles mainly originate from wear of rails track, brakes, wheels and carbon contact stripe which are the main causes of cardio-pulmonary and lung cancer. In previous reports most of the researchers have focused on case studies based PM emission investigation. However, the PM emission measured in this way doesn’t show separately the metal PM emission to the environment. In this study a generic PM emission model is developed using rail wheel-track wear model to quantify and characterise the metal emissions. The modelling has based on Archard’s wear model. The prediction models estimated the passenger train of one set emits 6.6mg/km-train at 60m/s speed. The effects of train speed on the PM emission has been also investigated and resulted in when the train speed increase the metal PM emission decrease. Using the model the metal PM emission has been studied for the train line between Leeds and Manchester to show potential emissions produced each day. This PM emission characteristics can be used to monitor the brakes, the wheels and the rail tracks conditions in future

Drill bit performance investigation using computational fluid dynamics.

Drilling tools are extensively used in mining and quarrying industries. Even though working environments may be different for different drilling tools application, the basic working principle has extensive similarity. The markedly different physical properties of the drilled substance (rock, soil), the depth of drilling, the rotating speed of the drill and the overall performance characteristics of the air compressor are the main parameters which affect the performance effectiveness of the drill bit. It is fairly difficult to carry out detailed experimental investigations to predict the effects of all these parameters on drill bit performance. Hence it is advisable to use the state of the art fluid dynamics simulation package Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) to establish parametric interdependence. The CFD software is used due to its ability to substantially reduce the lead times and costs of new designs and its flexibility to study systems where controlled experiments are difficult to carry out. In addition, CFD also gives opportunity to study systems under hazardous conditions and yields fairly in-depth detail

Association Between the Level of Reported Good Medication Adherence and the Geographic Location of a Patient's Residence and Presence of a Glucometer Among Adult Patients with Diabetes in Ethiopia:A Systematic and Meta-Analysis

Background: Diabetes mellitus (DM) is a major public health problem worldwide that was estimated to have affected the lives of 425 million people globally in 2017. The prevalence and mortality rates of DM have increased rapidly in low- and middle-income countries with an estimated 2.6 million cases of DM occurring in Ethiopia alone in 2015. Objective: Considering that Ethiopia is undergoing an epidemiological transition, it is increasingly important to understand the significant influence DM has on Ethiopians annually. A systematic review and meta-analysis of the existing studies were conducted to better understand the factors that are associated with DM medication adherence across Ethiopia and to elucidate areas for further studies. Methods: Studies were retrieved through search engines in Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature, Embase, Medline, PubMed, Google Scholar, Web of Science, Science Direct, and Scopus. The Newcastle–Ottawa Scale for cross-sectional studies was used to assess the critical appraisal of the included studies. Random effects model was used to estimate the association between the level of medication adherence and the geographic location of a patient's residence and presence of a glucometer at 95% CI with its respective odds ratio. Meta-regression was also used to identify the potential source of heterogeneity. Beggs and Egger tests were performed to determine publication bias. Subgroup analyses, based on the study area, were also performed. Results: A total of 1046 articles were identified through searching, of which 19 articles representing 7756 participants were included for the final analysis stage. Reported good medication adherence among patients with diabetes in Ethiopia was 68.59% (95% CI, 62.00%–75.18%). Subgroup analysis was performed, and the pooled estimate of reported good medication adherence among these patients in regions outside Addis Ababa was 67.81% (95% CI, 59.96%–75.65%), whereas in Addis Ababa it was 70.37% (95% CI, 57.51%–83.23%). Patients who used a glucometer at home had an odds ratio of 2.12 (95% CI, 1.42–3.16) and thus reported good adherence. We found no statistically significant association between the geographic location of a patient's residence and a good level of reported medication adherence (odds ratio, 1.81; 95% CI, 0.78–4.21). Conclusions: Most adult patients with diabetes in these studies had a good level of reported DM medication adherence. Having a glucometer was significantly associated with reported increased medication adherence. Our findings suggest the need for interventions to improve diabetes medication adherence

Alcohol use and burden for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2016 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016

Background Alcohol use is a leading risk factor for death and disability, but its overall association with health remains complex given the possible protective effects of moderate alcohol consumption on some conditions. With our comprehensive approach to health accounting within the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016, we generated improved estimates of alcohol use and alcohol-attributable deaths and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 195 locations from 1990 to 2016, for both sexes and for 5-year age groups between the ages of 15 years and 95 years and older. Methods Using 694 data sources of individual and population-level alcohol consumption, along with 592 prospective and retrospective studies on the risk of alcohol use, we produced estimates of the prevalence of current drinking, abstention, the distribution of alcohol consumption among current drinkers in standard drinks daily (defined as 10 g of pure ethyl alcohol), and alcohol-attributable deaths and DALYs. We made several methodological improvements compared with previous estimates: first, we adjusted alcohol sales estimates to take into account tourist and unrecorded consumption; second, we did a new meta-analysis of relative risks for 23 health outcomes associated with alcohol use; and third, we developed a new method to quantify the level of alcohol consumption that minimises the overall risk to individual health. Findings Globally, alcohol use was the seventh leading risk factor for both deaths and DALYs in 2016, accounting for 2.2% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 1.5-3.0) of age-standardised female deaths and 6.8% (5.8-8.0) of age-standardised male deaths. Among the population aged 15-49 years, alcohol use was the leading risk factor globally in 2016, with 3.8% (95% UI 3.2-4-3) of female deaths and 12.2% (10.8-13-6) of male deaths attributable to alcohol use. For the population aged 15-49 years, female attributable DALYs were 2.3% (95% UI 2.0-2.6) and male attributable DALYs were 8.9% (7.8-9.9). The three leading causes of attributable deaths in this age group were tuberculosis (1.4% [95% UI 1. 0-1. 7] of total deaths), road injuries (1.2% [0.7-1.9]), and self-harm (1.1% [0.6-1.5]). For populations aged 50 years and older, cancers accounted for a large proportion of total alcohol-attributable deaths in 2016, constituting 27.1% (95% UI 21.2-33.3) of total alcohol-attributable female deaths and 18.9% (15.3-22.6) of male deaths. The level of alcohol consumption that minimised harm across health outcomes was zero (95% UI 0.0-0.8) standard drinks per week. Interpretation Alcohol use is a leading risk factor for global disease burden and causes substantial health loss. We found that the risk of all-cause mortality, and of cancers specifically, rises with increasing levels of consumption, and the level of consumption that minimises health loss is zero. These results suggest that alcohol control policies might need to be revised worldwide, refocusing on efforts to lower overall population-level consumption.Peer reviewe

Global, regional, and national disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 359 diseases and injuries and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017.

How long one lives, how many years of life are spent in good and poor health, and how the population's state of health and leading causes of disability change over time all have implications for policy, planning, and provision of services. We comparatively assessed the patterns and trends of healthy life expectancy (HALE), which quantifies the number of years of life expected to be lived in good health, and the complementary measure of disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), a composite measure of disease burden capturing both premature mortality and prevalence and severity of ill health, for 359 diseases and injuries for 195 countries and territories over the past 28 years. Methods We used data for age-specific mortality rates, years of life lost (YLLs) due to premature mortality, and years lived with disability (YLDs) from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 to calculate HALE and DALYs from 1990 to 2017. We calculated HALE using age-specific mortality rates and YLDs per capita for each location, age, sex, and year. We calculated DALYs for 359 causes as the sum of YLLs and YLDs. We assessed how observed HALE and DALYs differed by country and sex from expected trends based on Socio-demographic Index (SDI). We also analysed HALE by decomposing years of life gained into years spent in good health and in poor health, between 1990 and 2017, and extra years lived by females compared with males. Findings Globally, from 1990 to 2017, life expectancy at birth increased by 7·4 years (95% uncertainty interval 7·1-7·8), from 65·6 years (65·3-65·8) in 1990 to 73·0 years (72·7-73·3) in 2017. The increase in years of life varied from 5·1 years (5·0-5·3) in high SDI countries to 12·0 years (11·3-12·8) in low SDI countries. Of the additional years of life expected at birth, 26·3% (20·1-33·1) were expected to be spent in poor health in high SDI countries compared with 11·7% (8·8-15·1) in low-middle SDI countries. HALE at birth increased by 6·3 years (5·9-6·7), from 57·0 years (54·6-59·1) in 1990 to 63·3 years (60·5-65·7) in 2017. The increase varied from 3·8 years (3·4-4·1) in high SDI countries to 10·5 years (9·8-11·2) in low SDI countries. Even larger variations in HALE than these were observed between countries, ranging from 1·0 year (0·4-1·7) in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines (62·4 years [59·9-64·7] in 1990 to 63·5 years [60·9-65·8] in 2017) to 23·7 years (21·9-25·6) in Eritrea (30·7 years [28·9-32·2] in 1990 to 54·4 years [51·5-57·1] in 2017). In most countries, the increase in HALE was smaller than the increase in overall life expectancy, indicating more years lived in poor health. In 180 of 195 countries and territories, females were expected to live longer than males in 2017, with extra years lived varying from 1·4 years (0·6-2·3) in Algeria to 11·9 years (10·9-12·9) in Ukraine. Of the extra years gained, the proportion spent in poor health varied largely across countries, with less than 20% of additional years spent in poor health in Bosnia and Herzegovina, Burundi, and Slovakia, whereas in Bahrain all the extra years were spent in poor health. In 2017, the highest estimate of HALE at birth was in Singapore for both females (75·8 years [72·4-78·7]) and males (72·6 years [69·8-75·0]) and the lowest estimates were in Central African Republic (47·0 years [43·7-50·2] for females and 42·8 years [40·1-45·6] for males). Globally, in 2017, the five leading causes of DALYs were neonatal disorders, ischaemic heart disease, stroke, lower respiratory infections, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. Between 1990 and 2017, age-standardised DALY rates decreased by 41·3% (38·8-43·5) for communicable diseases and by 49·8% (47·9-51·6) for neonatal disorders. For non-communicable diseases, global DALYs increased by 40·1% (36·8-43·0), although age-standardised DALY rates decreased by 18·1% (16·0-20·2)

Global, regional, and national age-sex-specific mortality for 282 causes of death in 195 countries and territories, 1980-2017 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Background Global development goals increasingly rely on country-specific estimates for benchmarking a nation's progress. To meet this need, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2016 estimated global, regional, national, and, for selected locations, subnational cause-specific mortality beginning in the year 1980. Here we report an update to that study, making use of newly available data and improved methods. GBD 2017 provides a comprehensive assessment of cause-specific mortality for 282 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2017. Methods The causes of death database is composed of vital registration (VR), verbal autopsy (VA), registry, survey, police, and surveillance data. GBD 2017 added ten VA studies, 127 country-years of VR data, 502 cancer-registry country-years, and an additional surveillance country-year. Expansions of the GBD cause of death hierarchy resulted in 18 additional causes estimated for GBD 2017. Newly available data led to subnational estimates for five additional countries Ethiopia, Iran, New Zealand, Norway, and Russia. Deaths assigned International Classification of Diseases (ICD) codes for non-specific, implausible, or intermediate causes of death were reassigned to underlying causes by redistribution algorithms that were incorporated into uncertainty estimation. We used statistical modelling tools developed for GBD, including the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODErn), to generate cause fractions and cause specific death rates for each location, year, age, and sex. Instead of using UN estimates as in previous versions, GBD 2017 independently estimated population size and fertility rate for all locations. Years of life lost (YLLs) were then calculated as the sum of each death multiplied by the standard life expectancy at each age. All rates reported here are age-standardised. Findings At the broadest grouping of causes of death (Level 1), non-communicable diseases (NC Ds) comprised the greatest fraction of deaths, contributing to 73.4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 72.5-74.1) of total deaths in 2017, while communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional (CMNN) causes accounted for 186% (17.9-19.6), and injuries 8.0% (7.7-8.2). Total numbers of deaths from NCD causes increased from 2007 to 2017 by 22.7% (21.5-23.9), representing an additional 7.61 million (7. 20-8.01) deaths estimated in 2017 versus 2007. The death rate from NCDs decreased globally by 7.9% (7.08.8). The number of deaths for CMNN causes decreased by 222% (20.0-24.0) and the death rate by 31.8% (30.1-33.3). Total deaths from injuries increased by 2.3% (0-5-4-0) between 2007 and 2017, and the death rate from injuries decreased by 13.7% (12.2-15.1) to 57.9 deaths (55.9-59.2) per 100 000 in 2017. Deaths from substance use disorders also increased, rising from 284 000 deaths (268 000-289 000) globally in 2007 to 352 000 (334 000-363 000) in 2017. Between 2007 and 2017, total deaths from conflict and terrorism increased by 118.0% (88.8-148.6). A greater reduction in total deaths and death rates was observed for some CMNN causes among children younger than 5 years than for older adults, such as a 36.4% (32.2-40.6) reduction in deaths from lower respiratory infections for children younger than 5 years compared with a 33.6% (31.2-36.1) increase in adults older than 70 years. Globally, the number of deaths was greater for men than for women at most ages in 2017, except at ages older than 85 years. Trends in global YLLs reflect an epidemiological transition, with decreases in total YLLs from enteric infections, respirator}, infections and tuberculosis, and maternal and neonatal disorders between 1990 and 2017; these were generally greater in magnitude at the lowest levels of the Socio-demographic Index (SDI). At the same time, there were large increases in YLLs from neoplasms and cardiovascular diseases. YLL rates decreased across the five leading Level 2 causes in all SDI quintiles. The leading causes of YLLs in 1990 neonatal disorders, lower respiratory infections, and diarrhoeal diseases were ranked second, fourth, and fifth, in 2017. Meanwhile, estimated YLLs increased for ischaemic heart disease (ranked first in 2017) and stroke (ranked third), even though YLL rates decreased. Population growth contributed to increased total deaths across the 20 leading Level 2 causes of mortality between 2007 and 2017. Decreases in the cause-specific mortality rate reduced the effect of population growth for all but three causes: substance use disorders, neurological disorders, and skin and subcutaneous diseases. Interpretation Improvements in global health have been unevenly distributed among populations. Deaths due to injuries, substance use disorders, armed conflict and terrorism, neoplasms, and cardiovascular disease are expanding threats to global health. For causes of death such as lower respiratory and enteric infections, more rapid progress occurred for children than for the oldest adults, and there is continuing disparity in mortality rates by sex across age groups. Reductions in the death rate of some common diseases are themselves slowing or have ceased, primarily for NCDs, and the death rate for selected causes has increased in the past decade. Copyright (C) 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.Peer reviewe

Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Background: Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of “leaving no one behind”, it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990–2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. Methods: We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0–100, with 0 as the 2\ub75th percentile and 100 as the 97\ub75th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator. Findings: The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59\ub74 (IQR 35\ub74–67\ub73), ranging from a low of 11\ub76 (95% uncertainty interval 9\ub76–14\ub70) to a high of 84\ub79 (83\ub71–86\ub77). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030. Interpretation: The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health-related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health-related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence-related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains—curative interventions in the case of NCDs—towards multisectoral, prevention-oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the SDGs. What is clear is that our actions—or inaction—today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030