Wetterentwicklung und Warnmanagement des DWD ; Hydrometeorologische Rahmenbedingungen

Nach einem von vielen Menschen in Deutschland schon als sehr nass und kühl empfundenen Monat Mai entwickelte sich zum Ende des Monats eine Wetterlage mit ungewöhnlich hohen Dauerregenmengen, die in großen Teilen Deutschlands zu ausgeprägten Hochwasserwellen in den Flüssen führte. Besonders betroffen waren die Flüsse Donau und Elbe, aber auch zahlreiche andere kleinere und größere Flüsse und Bäche in weiten Teilen von Bayern, Baden-Württemberg, Sachsen, Thüringen, im südlichen Niedersachsen und in östlichen und nördlichen Teilen Hessens. Die Hochwasser konnten sich auch deshalb so schnell entwickeln und ausbreiten, weil nach dem vorangegangenen Monat die Böden in großen Gebieten Deutschlands schon sehr durchfeuchtet und damit weniger aufnahmefähig für weitere große Regenmengen waren. Im nachfolgenden Bericht wird kurz der Ablauf der Wetterereignisse vom 30.05. bis 02.06. beschrieben, die Auslöser der Hochwasserwellen waren. Dabei wird auch das Warnmanagement des Deutschen Wetterdienstes beschrieben und bewertet. Das Fazit kann sich sehen lassen, denn in den hochauflösenden numerischen Modellen des DWD und auch in den Modellen anderer nationaler Wetterdienste wurde die Wetterentwicklung und der anhaltende Dauerregen recht frühzeitig vorhergesagt. Auf dieser Grundlage konnte der Deutsche Wetterdienst die Bevölkerung, die Behörden und die Hilfsdienste rechtzeitig vorab informieren und warnen. Weiterhin geht der Bericht auch auf die generelle Entwicklung der Wetterlage im Laufe des Monats Mai ein und bewertet diese auf der klimatologischen Zeitskala. Demnach zeigen Klimasimulationen (KLIWAS), dass sich ähnliche Wetterlagen, zum Beispiel die Lage „Tief über Mitteleuropa“, im Zuge einer Klimaerwärmung bis zum Ende des Jahrhunderts durchaus häufiger ereignen könnten. Diskutiert wird auch die Rolle der beobachteten Schneeschmelze im höheren Bergland. Die enormen Niederschlagsmengen, die bis Ende Mai fielen, werden in ihrer zeitlichen Entwicklung betrachtet und unter anderem durch den Vergleich mit extremwertstatistisch ermittelten Starkniederschlagshöhen eingeordnet

Indicators for Healthy Ageing - A Debate

Definitions of healthy ageing include survival to a specific age, being free of chronic diseases, autonomy in activities of daily living, wellbeing, good quality of life, high social participation, only mild cognitive or functional impairment, and little or no disability. The working group Epidemiology of Ageing of the German Association of Epidemiology organized a workshop in 2012 with the aim to present different indicators used in German studies and to discuss their impact on health for an ageing middle-European population. Workshop presentations focused on prevalence of chronic diseases and multimorbidity, development of healthy life expectancy at the transition to oldest-age, physical activity, assessment of cognitive capability, and functioning and disability in old age. The communication describes the results regarding specific indicators for Germany, and hereby contributes to the further development of a set of indicators for the assessment of healthy ageing

Meta-analysis of genome-wide association studies from the CHARGE consortium identifies common variants associated with carotid intima media thickness and plaque

Carotid intima media thickness (cIMT) and plaque determined by ultrasonography are established measures of subclinical atherosclerosis that each predicts future cardiovascular disease events. We conducted a meta-analysis of genome-wide association data in 31,211 participants of European ancestry from nine large studies in the setting of the Cohorts for Heart and Aging Research in Genomic Epidemiology (CHARGE) Consortium. We then sought additional evidence to support our findings among 11,273 individuals using data from seven additional studies. In the combined meta-analysis, we identified three genomic regions associated with common carotid intima media thickness and two different regions associated with the presence of carotid plaque (P < 5 × 10 -8). The associated SNPs mapped in or near genes related to cellular signaling, lipid metabolism and blood pressure homeostasis, and two of the regions were associated with coronary artery disease (P < 0.006) in the Coronary Artery Disease Genome-Wide Replication and Meta-Analysis (CARDIoGRAM) consortium. Our findings may provide new insight into pathways leading to subclinical atherosclerosis and subsequent cardiovascular events

Pathways of Carbon Assimilation and Ammonia Oxidation Suggested by Environmental Genomic Analyses of Marine Crenarchaeota

Marine Crenarchaeota represent an abundant component of oceanic microbiota with potential to significantly influence biogeochemical cycling in marine ecosystems. Prior studies using specific archaeal lipid biomarkers and isotopic analyses indicated that planktonic Crenarchaeota have the capacity for autotrophic growth, and more recent cultivation studies support an ammonia-based chemolithoautotrophic energy metabolism. We report here analysis of fosmid sequences derived from the uncultivated marine crenarchaeote, Cenarchaeum symbiosum, focused on the reconstruction of carbon and energy metabolism. Genes predicted to encode multiple components of a modified 3-hydroxypropionate cycle of autotrophic carbon assimilation were identified, consistent with utilization of carbon dioxide as a carbon source. Additionally, genes predicted to encode a near complete oxidative tricarboxylic acid cycle were also identified, consistent with the consumption of organic carbon and in the production of intermediates for amino acid and cofactor biosynthesis. Therefore, C. symbiosum has the potential to function either as a strict autotroph, or as a mixotroph utilizing both carbon dioxide and organic material as carbon sources. From the standpoint of energy metabolism, genes predicted to encode ammonia monooxygenase subunits, ammonia permease, urease, and urea transporters were identified, consistent with the use of reduced nitrogen compounds as energy sources fueling autotrophic metabolism. Homologues of these genes, recovered from ocean waters worldwide, demonstrate the conservation and ubiquity of crenarchaeal pathways for carbon assimilation and ammonia oxidation. These findings further substantiate the likely global metabolic importance of Crenarchaeota with respect to key steps in the biogeochemical transformation of carbon and nitrogen in marine ecosystems

Genetic variation in Fcγ receptor IIa and risk of coronary heart disease: negative results from two large independent populations

Background The role of the Fcgamma receptor IIa (FcgammaRIIa), a receptor for C-reactive protein (CRP), the classical acute phase protein, in atherosclerosis is not yet clear. We sought to investigate the association of FcgammaRIIa genotype with risk of coronary heart disease (CHD) in two large population-based samples. Methods FcgammaRIIa-R/H131 polymorphisms were determined in a population of 527 patients with a history of myocardial infarction and 527 age and gender matched controls drawn from a population-based MONICA- Augsburg survey. In the LURIC population, 2227 patients with angiographically proven CHD, defined as having at least one stenosis [greater than or equal to]50%, were compared with 1032 individuals with stenosis H genotype was not independently associated with lower risk of CHD after multivariable adjustments, neither in the MONICA population (odds ratio (OR) 1.08; 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.81 to 1.44), nor in LURIC (OR 0.96; 95% CI 0.81 to 1.14). Conclusion Our results do not confirm an independent relationship between FcgammaRIIa genotypes and risk of CHD in these populations

Repositioning of the global epicentre of non-optimal cholesterol

High blood cholesterol is typically considered a feature of wealthy western countries(1,2). However, dietary and behavioural determinants of blood cholesterol are changing rapidly throughout the world(3) and countries are using lipid-lowering medications at varying rates. These changes can have distinct effects on the levels of high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol and non-HDL cholesterol, which have different effects on human health(4,5). However, the trends of HDL and non-HDL cholesterol levels over time have not been previously reported in a global analysis. Here we pooled 1,127 population-based studies that measured blood lipids in 102.6 million individuals aged 18 years and older to estimate trends from 1980 to 2018 in mean total, non-HDL and HDL cholesterol levels for 200 countries. Globally, there was little change in total or non-HDL cholesterol from 1980 to 2018. This was a net effect of increases in low- and middle-income countries, especially in east and southeast Asia, and decreases in high-income western countries, especially those in northwestern Europe, and in central and eastern Europe. As a result, countries with the highest level of non-HDL cholesterol-which is a marker of cardiovascular riskchanged from those in western Europe such as Belgium, Finland, Greenland, Iceland, Norway, Sweden, Switzerland and Malta in 1980 to those in Asia and the Pacific, such as Tokelau, Malaysia, The Philippines and Thailand. In 2017, high non-HDL cholesterol was responsible for an estimated 3.9 million (95% credible interval 3.7 million-4.2 million) worldwide deaths, half of which occurred in east, southeast and south Asia. The global repositioning of lipid-related risk, with non-optimal cholesterol shifting from a distinct feature of high-income countries in northwestern Europe, north America and Australasia to one that affects countries in east and southeast Asia and Oceania should motivate the use of population-based policies and personal interventions to improve nutrition and enhance access to treatment throughout the world.Peer reviewe

Abdominal aortic aneurysm is associated with a variant in low-density lipoprotein receptor-related protein 1

Abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) is a common cause of morbidity and mortality and has a significant heritability. We carried out a genome-wide association discovery study of 1866 patients with AAA and 5435 controls and replication of promising signals (lead SNP with a p value &lt; 1 × 10-5) in 2871 additional cases and 32,687 controls and performed further follow-up in 1491 AAA and 11,060 controls. In the discovery study, nine loci demonstrated association with AAA (p &lt; 1 × 10-5). In the replication sample, the lead SNP at one of these loci, rs1466535, located within intron 1 of low-density-lipoprotein receptor-related protein 1 (LRP1) demonstrated significant association (p = 0.0042). We confirmed the association of rs1466535 and AAA in our follow-up study (p = 0.035). In a combined analysis (6228 AAA and 49182 controls), rs1466535 had a consistent effect size and direction in all sample sets (combined p = 4.52 × 10-10, odds ratio 1.15 [1.10-1.21]). No associations were seen for either rs1466535 or the 12q13.3 locus in independent association studies of coronary artery disease, blood pressure, diabetes, or hyperlipidaemia, suggesting that this locus is specific to AAA. Gene-expression studies demonstrated a trend toward increased LRP1 expression for the rs1466535 CC genotype in arterial tissues; there was a significant (p = 0.029) 1.19-fold (1.04-1.36) increase in LRP1 expression in CC homozygotes compared to TT homozygotes in aortic adventitia. Functional studies demonstrated that rs1466535 might alter a SREBP-1 binding site and influence enhancer activity at the locus. In conclusion, this study has identified a biologically plausible genetic variant associated specifically with AAA, and we suggest that this variant has a possible functional role in LRP1 expression