The role of quantitative cross-case analysis in understanding tropical smallholder farmers’ adaptive capacity to climate shocks

Climate shocks are predicted to increase in magnitude and frequency as the climate changes, notably impacting poor and vulnerable communities across the Tropics. The urgency to better understand and improve communities' resilience is reflected in international agreements such as the Paris Agreement and the multiplication of adaptation research and action programs. In turn, the need for collecting and communicating evidence on the climate resilience of communities has increasingly drawn questions concerning how to assess resilience. While empirical case studies are often used to delve into the context-specific nature of resilience, synthesizing results is essential to produce generalizable findings at the scale at which policies are designed. Yet datasets, methods and modalities that enable cross-case analyses that draw from individual local studies are still rare in climate resilience literature. We use empirical case studies on the impacts of El Niño on smallholder households from five countries to test the application of quantitative data aggregation for policy recommendation. We standardized data into an aggregated dataset to explore how key demographic factors affected the impact of climate shocks, modeled as crop loss. We find that while cross-study results partially align with the findings from the individual projects and with theory, several challenges associated with quantitative aggregation remain when examining complex, contextual and multi-dimensional concepts such as resilience. We conclude that future exercises synthesizing cross-site empirical evidence in climate resilience could accelerate research to policy impact by using mixed methods, focusing on specific landscapes or regional scales, and facilitating research through the use of shared frameworks and learning exercises

Simulated vs. empirical weather responsiveness of crop yields: US evidence and implications for the agricultural impacts of climate change

Global gridded crop models (GGCMs) are the workhorse of assessments of the agricultural impacts of climate change. Yet the changes in crop yields projected by different models in response to the same meteorological forcing can differ substantially. Through an inter-method comparison, we provide a first glimpse into the origins and implications of this divergence—both among GGCMs and between GGCMs and historical observations. We examine yields of rainfed maize, wheat, and soybeans simulated by six GGCMs as part of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project-Fast Track (ISIMIP-FT) exercise, comparing 1981-2004 hindcast yields over the coterminous United States (U.S.) against U.S. Dept. of Agriculture (USDA) time series for about 1,000 counties. Leveraging the empirical climate change impacts literature, we estimate reduced-form econometric models of crop yield responses to temperature and precipitation exposures for both GGCMs and observations. We find that up to 60% of the variance in both simulated and observed yields is attributable to weather variation. Majority of the GGCMs have difficulty reproducing the observed distribution of percentage yield anomalies, and exhibit aggregate responses that show yields to be more weather-sensitive than in the observational record over the predominant range of temperature and precipitation conditions. This disparity is largely attributable to heterogeneity in GGCMs’ responses, as opposed to uncertainty in historical weather forcings, and is responsible for widely divergent impacts of climate on future crop yields

Search for new phenomena in final states with an energetic jet and large missing transverse momentum in pp collisions at √ s = 8 TeV with the ATLAS detector

Results of a search for new phenomena in final states with an energetic jet and large missing transverse momentum are reported. The search uses 20.3 fb−1 of √ s = 8 TeV data collected in 2012 with the ATLAS detector at the LHC. Events are required to have at least one jet with pT > 120 GeV and no leptons. Nine signal regions are considered with increasing missing transverse momentum requirements between Emiss T > 150 GeV and Emiss T > 700 GeV. Good agreement is observed between the number of events in data and Standard Model expectations. The results are translated into exclusion limits on models with either large extra spatial dimensions, pair production of weakly interacting dark matter candidates, or production of very light gravitinos in a gauge-mediated supersymmetric model. In addition, limits on the production of an invisibly decaying Higgs-like boson leading to similar topologies in the final state are presente

Neural computations underpinning the strategic management of influence in advice giving

Research on social influence has focused mainly on the target of influence (e.g., consumer and voter); thus, the cognitive and neurobiological underpinnings of the source of the influence (e.g., politicians and salesmen) remain unknown. Here, in a three-sided advice-giving game, two advisers competed to influence a client by modulating their own confidence in their advice about which lottery the client should choose. We report that advisers’ strategy depends on their level of influence on the client and their merit relative to one another. Moreover, blood-oxygenation-level-dependent (BOLD) signal in the temporo-parietal junction is modulated by adviser’s current level of influence on the client, and relative merit prediction error affects activity in medial-prefrontal cortex. Both types of social information modulate ventral striatum response. By demonstrating what happens in our mind and brain when we try to influence others, these results begin to explain the biological mechanisms that shape inter-individual differences in social conduct

Combined measurement of differential and total cross sections in the H → γγ and the H → ZZ* → 4ℓ decay channels at s=13 TeV with the ATLAS detector

A combined measurement of differential and inclusive total cross sections of Higgs boson production is performed using 36.1 fb−1 of 13 TeV proton–proton collision data produced by the LHC and recorded by the ATLAS detector in 2015 and 2016. Cross sections are obtained from measured H→γγ and H→ZZ*(→4ℓ event yields, which are combined taking into account detector efficiencies, resolution, acceptances and branching fractions. The total Higgs boson production cross section is measured to be 57.0−5.9 +6.0 (stat.) −3.3 +4.0 (syst.) pb, in agreement with the Standard Model prediction. Differential cross-section measurements are presented for the Higgs boson transverse momentum distribution, Higgs boson rapidity, number of jets produced together with the Higgs boson, and the transverse momentum of the leading jet. The results from the two decay channels are found to be compatible, and their combination agrees with the Standard Model predictions

Measurement of the W±Z boson pair-production cross section in pp collisions at √s=13TeV with the ATLAS detector

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Measurement of VH, H → b b ¯ production as a function of the vector-boson transverse momentum in 13 TeV pp collisions with the ATLAS detector

Cross-sections of associated production of a Higgs boson decaying into bottom-quark pairs and an electroweak gauge boson, W or Z, decaying into leptons are measured as a function of the gauge boson transverse momentum. The measurements are performed in kinematic fiducial volumes defined in the `simplified template cross-section' framework. The results are obtained using 79.8 fb-1 of proton-proton collisions recorded by the ATLAS detector at the Large Hadron Collider at a centre-of-mass energy of 13 TeV. All measurements are found to be in agreement with the Standard Model predictions, and limits are set on the parameters of an effective Lagrangian sensitive to modifications of the Higgs boson couplings to the electroweak gauge bosons

Performance of missing transverse momentum reconstruction with the ATLAS detector using proton–proton collisions at √s = 13 TeV

The performance of the missing transverse momentum (EmissT) reconstruction with the ATLAS detector is evaluated using data collected in proton–proton collisions at the LHC at a centre-of-mass energy of 13 TeV in 2015. To reconstruct EmissT, fully calibrated electrons, muons, photons, hadronically decaying τ -leptons, and jets reconstructed from calorimeter energy deposits and charged-particle tracks are used. These are combined with the soft hadronic activity measured by reconstructed charged-particle tracks not associated with the hard objects. Possible double counting of contributions from reconstructed charged-particle tracks from the inner detector, energy deposits in the calorimeter, and reconstructed muons from the muon spectrometer is avoided by applying a signal ambiguity resolution procedure which rejects already used signals when combining the various EmissT contributions. The individual terms as well as the overall reconstructed EmissT are evaluated with various performance metrics for scale (linearity), resolution, and sensitivity to the data-taking conditions. The method developed to determine the systematic uncertainties of the EmissT scale and resolution is discussed. Results are shown based on the full 2015 data sample corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 3.2 fb−1

Search for High-Mass Resonances Decaying to τν in pp Collisions at √s=13 TeV with the ATLAS Detector

A search for high-mass resonances decaying to τν using proton-proton collisions at √s=13 TeV produced by the Large Hadron Collider is presented. Only τ-lepton decays with hadrons in the final state are considered. The data were recorded with the ATLAS detector and correspond to an integrated luminosity of 36.1 fb−1. No statistically significant excess above the standard model expectation is observed; model-independent upper limits are set on the visible τν production cross section. Heavy W′ bosons with masses less than 3.7 TeV in the sequential standard model and masses less than 2.2–3.8 TeV depending on the coupling in the nonuniversal G(221) model are excluded at the 95% credibility level

Search for the direct production of charginos and neutralinos in final states with tau leptons in √s=13 TeV collisions with the ATLAS detector

A search for the direct production of charginos and neutralinos in final states with at least two hadronically decaying tau leptons is presented. The analysis uses a dataset of pp collisions corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 36.1 fb−1, recorded with the ATLAS detector at the Large Hadron Collider at a centre-of-mass energy of 13TeV.Nosignificant deviation from the expected Standard Model background is observed. Limits are derived in scenarios of ˜χ+1 ˜χ−1 pair production and of ˜χ±1 ˜χ02 and ˜χ+1 ˜χ−1 production in simplified models where the neutralinos and charginos decay solely via intermediate left-handed staus and tau sneutrinos, and the mass of the ˜ τL state is set to be halfway between the masses of the ˜χ±1 and the ˜χ01. Chargino masses up to 630 GeV are excluded at 95% confidence level in the scenario of direct production of ˜χ+1 ˜χ−1 for a massless ˜χ01. Common ˜χ±1 and ˜χ02 masses up to 760 GeV are excluded in the case of production of ˜χ±1 ˜χ02 and ˜χ+1 ˜χ−1 assuming a massless ˜χ01. Exclusion limits for additional benchmark scenarios with large and small mass-splitting between the ˜χ±1 and the ˜χ01 are also studied by varying the ˜ τL mass between the masses of the ˜χ±1 and the ˜χ01