Inferential Survival Analysis for Type II Censored Truncated Exponential Topp Leone Exponential Distribution with Application to Engineering Data

This study focuses on estimating the unknown parameters of the truncated exponential Topp-Leon distribution using a type II scheme. We estimate the unknown parameters, survival, and hazard functions using maximum likelihood estimation methods. Additionally, we derive the approximate variance covariance matrix and asymptotic confidence intervals. Furthermore, we compute Bayesian estimates of the unknown parameters under squared error and linear loss functions. To generate samples from the posterior density functions, we use the Metropolies-Hastings algorithm. We demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed distribution by applying it to two data sets: Monte Carlo simulation and real data set. Our results show that the proposed distribution provides accurate estimates of the unknown parameters and performs well in fitting the data. Our findings also indicate that Bayesian estimation can provide more precise estimates with narrower confidence intervals compared to maximum likelihood estimation method. In summary, the study provides a comprehensive analysis of the estimation of the unknown parameters for the truncated exponential Topp-Leone distribution using a type II scheme. Also, the results demonstrate the potential of this distribution in modeling real data and the usefulness of both maximum likelihood and Bayesian estimation methods in obtaining accurate parameter estimates

Analysis of Generalized Inverted Exponential Distribution under Adaptive Type-I Progressive Hybrid Censored Competing Risks Data

The estimation of the unknown parameters of generalized inverted exponential distribution under adaptive type-I progressive hybrid censored scheme (AT-I PHCS) with competing risks data will be discussed. The reason why AT-I PHCS has exceeded other failure censored types; Time censored types enable analysts to accomplish their trials and experiments in a shorter time and with higher efficiency. In this regards, we obtain the maximum likelihood estimation of the parameters and the asymptotic confidence intervals for the unknown parameters. Further, Bayes estimates of the parameters which obtained based on squared error and LINEX loss functions under the assumptions of independent gamma priors of the scale parameters. For Bayesian estimation, we take advantage of Markov Chain Monte Carlo techniques to derive Bayesian estimators and the credible intervals. Finally, two data sets with Monte Carlo simulation study and a real data set are analyzed for illustrative purposes

Parameters and Reliability Estimation of Left Truncated Gumbel Distribution under Progressive Type II Censored with Repairable Mechanical Equipment Data

The estimation of two parameters of the left truncated Gumbel distribution using the progressive type II censoring scheme is discussed. We first derived the maximum likelihood estimators of the unknown parameters. The approximate asymptotic variance-covariance matrix and approximate confidence intervals based on the asymptotic normality of the classical estimators are calculated. Also, the survival and hazard functions are derived. Further, the delta method is used to construct approximate confidence intervals for survival and hazard functions. Using the left truncated normal prior for the location parameter and an inverted gamma prior for the scale parameter, several Bayes estimates based on squared error and general entropy loss functions are computed. Bayes estimators of the unknown parameters cannot be calculated in closed forms. Markov chain Monte Carlo method, namely Metropolis-Hastings algorithm, has been used to derive the approximate Bayes estimates. Also, the credible intervals are constructed by using Markov chain Monte Carlo samples. Finally, The Monte Carlo simulation study compares the performances among various estimates in terms of their root mean squared errors, mean absolute biased, average confidence lengths, and coverage probabilities under different sets of values of sample sizes, number of failures and censoring schemes. Moreover, a numerical example with a real data set and Markov chain Monte Carlo data sets are tackled to highlight the importance of the proposed methods. Bayes Markov chain Monte Carlo estimates have performed better than those obtained based on the likelihood function

Analysis of Two Generalized Exponential Populations Under Joint Type-I Progressive Hybrid Censoring Scheme

This paper discussed inference for two generalized exponential using the joint type-I progressively hybrid censoring (JPHC-I) scheme. It assumed that the lifetime distribution of the items from the two populations follow generalized exponential distribution. Based on the JPHC-I scheme, we first consider the maximum likelihood estimators of the unknown parameters along with thier asymptotic confidence intervals. Next, we provide the Bayesian inferences of the unknown parameters under the assumptions of independent gamma priors on the scale parameters using squared error (SE) and linear-exponential (LINEX) loss functions. Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) techniques is applied to carry out the Bayesian estimation procedure and in turn calculate the credible intervals. To evaluate the performance of the estimators, numerical example is carried out

Divorce and Severity of Coronary Artery Disease: A Multicenter Study

The association between marital status and coronary artery disease (CAD) is supported by numerous epidemiological studies. While divorce may have an adverse effect on cardiac outcomes, the relationship between divorce and severe CAD is unclear. We conducted a multicenter, observational study of consecutive patients undergoing coronary angiography during the period between April 1, 2013, and March 30, 2014. Of 1,068 patients, 124 (12%) were divorced. Divorce was more frequent among women (27%) compared to men (6%). Most divorced patients had been divorced only once (49%), but a subset had been divorced 2 (38%) or ≥3 (12%) times. After adjusting for baseline differences, there was no significant association between divorce and severe CAD in men. In women, there was a significant adjusted association between divorce and severe MVD (OR 2.31 [1.16, 4.59]) or LMD (OR 5.91 [2.19, 15.99]). The modification of the association between divorce and severe CAD by gender was statistically significant for severe LMD (Pinteraction 0.0008) and marginally significant for CAD (Pinteraction 0.05). Among women, there was a significant adjusted association between number of divorces and severe CAD (OR 2.4 [95% CI 1.2, 4.5]), MVD (OR 2.0 [95% CI 1.4, 3.0]), and LMD (OR 3.4 [95% CI 1.9, 5.9]). In conclusion, divorce, particularly multiple divorces, is associated with severe CAD, MVD, and LMD in women but not in men

Assessing generalisability of deep learning-based polyp detection and segmentation methods through a computer vision challenge

Polyps are well-known cancer precursors identified by colonoscopy. However, variability in their size, appearance, and location makes the detection of polyps challenging. Moreover, colonoscopy surveillance and removal of polyps are highly operator-dependent procedures and occur in a highly complex organ topology. There exists a high missed detection rate and incomplete removal of colonic polyps. To assist in clinical procedures and reduce missed rates, automated methods for detecting and segmenting polyps using machine learning have been achieved in past years. However, the major drawback in most of these methods is their ability to generalise to out-of-sample unseen datasets from different centres, populations, modalities, and acquisition systems. To test this hypothesis rigorously, we, together with expert gastroenterologists, curated a multi-centre and multi-population dataset acquired from six different colonoscopy systems and challenged the computational expert teams to develop robust automated detection and segmentation methods in a crowd-sourcing Endoscopic computer vision challenge. This work put forward rigorous generalisability tests and assesses the usability of devised deep learning methods in dynamic and actual clinical colonoscopy procedures. We analyse the results of four top performing teams for the detection task and five top performing teams for the segmentation task. Our analyses demonstrate that the top-ranking teams concentrated mainly on accuracy over the real-time performance required for clinical applicability. We further dissect the devised methods and provide an experiment-based hypothesis that reveals the need for improved generalisability to tackle diversity present in multi-centre datasets and routine clinical procedures

Antimicrobial resistance among migrants in Europe: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND: Rates of antimicrobial resistance (AMR) are rising globally and there is concern that increased migration is contributing to the burden of antibiotic resistance in Europe. However, the effect of migration on the burden of AMR in Europe has not yet been comprehensively examined. Therefore, we did a systematic review and meta-analysis to identify and synthesise data for AMR carriage or infection in migrants to Europe to examine differences in patterns of AMR across migrant groups and in different settings. METHODS: For this systematic review and meta-analysis, we searched MEDLINE, Embase, PubMed, and Scopus with no language restrictions from Jan 1, 2000, to Jan 18, 2017, for primary data from observational studies reporting antibacterial resistance in common bacterial pathogens among migrants to 21 European Union-15 and European Economic Area countries. To be eligible for inclusion, studies had to report data on carriage or infection with laboratory-confirmed antibiotic-resistant organisms in migrant populations. We extracted data from eligible studies and assessed quality using piloted, standardised forms. We did not examine drug resistance in tuberculosis and excluded articles solely reporting on this parameter. We also excluded articles in which migrant status was determined by ethnicity, country of birth of participants' parents, or was not defined, and articles in which data were not disaggregated by migrant status. Outcomes were carriage of or infection with antibiotic-resistant organisms. We used random-effects models to calculate the pooled prevalence of each outcome. The study protocol is registered with PROSPERO, number CRD42016043681. FINDINGS: We identified 2274 articles, of which 23 observational studies reporting on antibiotic resistance in 2319 migrants were included. The pooled prevalence of any AMR carriage or AMR infection in migrants was 25·4% (95% CI 19·1-31·8; I2 =98%), including meticillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (7·8%, 4·8-10·7; I2 =92%) and antibiotic-resistant Gram-negative bacteria (27·2%, 17·6-36·8; I2 =94%). The pooled prevalence of any AMR carriage or infection was higher in refugees and asylum seekers (33·0%, 18·3-47·6; I2 =98%) than in other migrant groups (6·6%, 1·8-11·3; I2 =92%). The pooled prevalence of antibiotic-resistant organisms was slightly higher in high-migrant community settings (33·1%, 11·1-55·1; I2 =96%) than in migrants in hospitals (24·3%, 16·1-32·6; I2 =98%). We did not find evidence of high rates of transmission of AMR from migrant to host populations. INTERPRETATION: Migrants are exposed to conditions favouring the emergence of drug resistance during transit and in host countries in Europe. Increased antibiotic resistance among refugees and asylum seekers and in high-migrant community settings (such as refugee camps and detention facilities) highlights the need for improved living conditions, access to health care, and initiatives to facilitate detection of and appropriate high-quality treatment for antibiotic-resistant infections during transit and in host countries. Protocols for the prevention and control of infection and for antibiotic surveillance need to be integrated in all aspects of health care, which should be accessible for all migrant groups, and should target determinants of AMR before, during, and after migration. FUNDING: UK National Institute for Health Research Imperial Biomedical Research Centre, Imperial College Healthcare Charity, the Wellcome Trust, and UK National Institute for Health Research Health Protection Research Unit in Healthcare-associated Infections and Antimictobial Resistance at Imperial College London

Effects of hospital facilities on patient outcomes after cancer surgery: an international, prospective, observational study

Background Early death after cancer surgery is higher in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) compared with in high-income countries, yet the impact of facility characteristics on early postoperative outcomes is unknown. The aim of this study was to examine the association between hospital infrastructure, resource availability, and processes on early outcomes after cancer surgery worldwide.Methods A multimethods analysis was performed as part of the GlobalSurg 3 study-a multicentre, international, prospective cohort study of patients who had surgery for breast, colorectal, or gastric cancer. The primary outcomes were 30-day mortality and 30-day major complication rates. Potentially beneficial hospital facilities were identified by variable selection to select those associated with 30-day mortality. Adjusted outcomes were determined using generalised estimating equations to account for patient characteristics and country-income group, with population stratification by hospital.Findings Between April 1, 2018, and April 23, 2019, facility-level data were collected for 9685 patients across 238 hospitals in 66 countries (91 hospitals in 20 high-income countries; 57 hospitals in 19 upper-middle-income countries; and 90 hospitals in 27 low-income to lower-middle-income countries). The availability of five hospital facilities was inversely associated with mortality: ultrasound, CT scanner, critical care unit, opioid analgesia, and oncologist. After adjustment for case-mix and country income group, hospitals with three or fewer of these facilities (62 hospitals, 1294 patients) had higher mortality compared with those with four or five (adjusted odds ratio [OR] 3.85 [95% CI 2.58-5.75]; p<0.0001), with excess mortality predominantly explained by a limited capacity to rescue following the development of major complications (63.0% vs 82.7%; OR 0.35 [0.23-0.53]; p<0.0001). Across LMICs, improvements in hospital facilities would prevent one to three deaths for every 100 patients undergoing surgery for cancer.Interpretation Hospitals with higher levels of infrastructure and resources have better outcomes after cancer surgery, independent of country income. Without urgent strengthening of hospital infrastructure and resources, the reductions in cancer-associated mortality associated with improved access will not be realised

Surgical site infection after gastrointestinal surgery in high-income, middle-income, and low-income countries: a prospective, international, multicentre cohort study

Background: Surgical site infection (SSI) is one of the most common infections associated with health care, but its importance as a global health priority is not fully understood. We quantified the burden of SSI after gastrointestinal surgery in countries in all parts of the world. Methods: This international, prospective, multicentre cohort study included consecutive patients undergoing elective or emergency gastrointestinal resection within 2-week time periods at any health-care facility in any country. Countries with participating centres were stratified into high-income, middle-income, and low-income groups according to the UN's Human Development Index (HDI). Data variables from the GlobalSurg 1 study and other studies that have been found to affect the likelihood of SSI were entered into risk adjustment models. The primary outcome measure was the 30-day SSI incidence (defined by US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention criteria for superficial and deep incisional SSI). Relationships with explanatory variables were examined using Bayesian multilevel logistic regression models. This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT02662231. Findings: Between Jan 4, 2016, and July 31, 2016, 13 265 records were submitted for analysis. 12 539 patients from 343 hospitals in 66 countries were included. 7339 (58·5%) patient were from high-HDI countries (193 hospitals in 30 countries), 3918 (31·2%) patients were from middle-HDI countries (82 hospitals in 18 countries), and 1282 (10·2%) patients were from low-HDI countries (68 hospitals in 18 countries). In total, 1538 (12·3%) patients had SSI within 30 days of surgery. The incidence of SSI varied between countries with high (691 [9·4%] of 7339 patients), middle (549 [14·0%] of 3918 patients), and low (298 [23·2%] of 1282) HDI (p < 0·001). The highest SSI incidence in each HDI group was after dirty surgery (102 [17·8%] of 574 patients in high-HDI countries; 74 [31·4%] of 236 patients in middle-HDI countries; 72 [39·8%] of 181 patients in low-HDI countries). Following risk factor adjustment, patients in low-HDI countries were at greatest risk of SSI (adjusted odds ratio 1·60, 95% credible interval 1·05–2·37; p=0·030). 132 (21·6%) of 610 patients with an SSI and a microbiology culture result had an infection that was resistant to the prophylactic antibiotic used. Resistant infections were detected in 49 (16·6%) of 295 patients in high-HDI countries, in 37 (19·8%) of 187 patients in middle-HDI countries, and in 46 (35·9%) of 128 patients in low-HDI countries (p < 0·001). Interpretation: Countries with a low HDI carry a disproportionately greater burden of SSI than countries with a middle or high HDI and might have higher rates of antibiotic resistance. In view of WHO recommendations on SSI prevention that highlight the absence of high-quality interventional research, urgent, pragmatic, randomised trials based in LMICs are needed to assess measures aiming to reduce this preventable complication

Global burden of 369 diseases and injuries in 204 countries and territories, 1990–2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background: In an era of shifting global agendas and expanded emphasis on non-communicable diseases and injuries along with communicable diseases, sound evidence on trends by cause at the national level is essential. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) provides a systematic scientific assessment of published, publicly available, and contributed data on incidence, prevalence, and mortality for a mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive list of diseases and injuries. Methods: GBD estimates incidence, prevalence, mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) due to 369 diseases and injuries, for two sexes, and for 204 countries and territories. Input data were extracted from censuses, household surveys, civil registration and vital statistics, disease registries, health service use, air pollution monitors, satellite imaging, disease notifications, and other sources. Cause-specific death rates and cause fractions were calculated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model and spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression. Cause-specific deaths were adjusted to match the total all-cause deaths calculated as part of the GBD population, fertility, and mortality estimates. Deaths were multiplied by standard life expectancy at each age to calculate YLLs. A Bayesian meta-regression modelling tool, DisMod-MR 2.1, was used to ensure consistency between incidence, prevalence, remission, excess mortality, and cause-specific mortality for most causes. Prevalence estimates were multiplied by disability weights for mutually exclusive sequelae of diseases and injuries to calculate YLDs. We considered results in the context of the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite indicator of income per capita, years of schooling, and fertility rate in females younger than 25 years. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered 1000 draw values of the posterior distribution. Findings: Global health has steadily improved over the past 30 years as measured by age-standardised DALY rates. After taking into account population growth and ageing, the absolute number of DALYs has remained stable. Since 2010, the pace of decline in global age-standardised DALY rates has accelerated in age groups younger than 50 years compared with the 1990–2010 time period, with the greatest annualised rate of decline occurring in the 0–9-year age group. Six infectious diseases were among the top ten causes of DALYs in children younger than 10 years in 2019: lower respiratory infections (ranked second), diarrhoeal diseases (third), malaria (fifth), meningitis (sixth), whooping cough (ninth), and sexually transmitted infections (which, in this age group, is fully accounted for by congenital syphilis; ranked tenth). In adolescents aged 10–24 years, three injury causes were among the top causes of DALYs: road injuries (ranked first), self-harm (third), and interpersonal violence (fifth). Five of the causes that were in the top ten for ages 10–24 years were also in the top ten in the 25–49-year age group: road injuries (ranked first), HIV/AIDS (second), low back pain (fourth), headache disorders (fifth), and depressive disorders (sixth). In 2019, ischaemic heart disease and stroke were the top-ranked causes of DALYs in both the 50–74-year and 75-years-and-older age groups. Since 1990, there has been a marked shift towards a greater proportion of burden due to YLDs from non-communicable diseases and injuries. In 2019, there were 11 countries where non-communicable disease and injury YLDs constituted more than half of all disease burden. Decreases in age-standardised DALY rates have accelerated over the past decade in countries at the lower end of the SDI range, while improvements have started to stagnate or even reverse in countries with higher SDI. Interpretation: As disability becomes an increasingly large component of disease burden and a larger component of health expenditure, greater research and developm nt investment is needed to identify new, more effective intervention strategies. With a rapidly ageing global population, the demands on health services to deal with disabling outcomes, which increase with age, will require policy makers to anticipate these changes. The mix of universal and more geographically specific influences on health reinforces the need for regular reporting on population health in detail and by underlying cause to help decision makers to identify success stories of disease control to emulate, as well as opportunities to improve. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2020 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 licens