Terrestrial vegetation redistribution and carbon balance under climate change

BACKGROUND: Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVMs) compute the terrestrial carbon balance as well as the transient spatial distribution of vegetation. We study two scenarios of moderate and strong climate change (2.9 K and 5.3 K temperature increase over present) to investigate the spatial redistribution of major vegetation types and their carbon balance in the year 2100. RESULTS: The world's land vegetation will be more deciduous than at present, and contain about 125 billion tons of additional carbon. While a recession of the boreal forest is simulated in some areas, along with a general expansion to the north, we do not observe a reported collapse of the central Amazonian rain forest. Rather, a decrease of biomass and a change of vegetation type occurs in its northeastern part. The ability of the terrestrial biosphere to sequester carbon from the atmosphere declines strongly in the second half of the 21(st )century. CONCLUSION: Climate change will cause widespread shifts in the distribution of major vegetation functional types on all continents by the year 2100

Paradoxes and Mechanisms for Choice under Risk

Experiments on choice under risk typically involve multiple decisions by individual subjects. The choice of mechanism for selecting decision(s) for payoff is an essential design feature unless subjects isolate each one of the multiple decisions. We report treatments with different payoff mechanisms but the same decision tasks. The data show large differences across mechanisms in subjects’ revealed risk preferences, a clear violation of isolation. We illustrate the importance of these mechanism effects by identifying their implications for classical tests of theories of decision under risk. We discuss theoretical properties of commonly used mechanisms, and new mechanisms introduced herein, in order to clarify which mechanisms are theoretically incentive compatible for which theories. We identify behavioral properties of some mechanisms that can introduce bias in elicited risk preferences – from cross-task contamination – even when the mechanism used is theoretically incentive compatible. We explain that selection of a payoff mechanism is an important component of experimental design in many topic areas including social preferences, public goods, bargaining, and choice under uncertainty and ambiguity as well as experiments on decisions under risk

Estimates of CO2 from fires in the United States: implications for carbon management

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Fires emit significant amounts of CO₂to the atmosphere. These emissions, however, are highly variable in both space and time. Additionally, CO₂emissions estimates from fires are very uncertain. The combination of high spatial and temporal variability and substantial uncertainty associated with fire CO₂emissions can be problematic to efforts to develop remote sensing, monitoring, and inverse modeling techniques to quantify carbon fluxes at the continental scale. Policy and carbon management decisions based on atmospheric sampling/modeling techniques must account for the impact of fire CO₂emissions; a task that may prove very difficult for the foreseeable future. This paper addresses the variability of CO₂emissions from fires across the US, how these emissions compare to anthropogenic emissions of CO₂and Net Primary Productivity, and the potential implications for monitoring programs and policy development.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Average annual CO₂emissions from fires in the lower 48 (LOWER48) states from 2002–2006 are estimated to be 213 (± 50 std. dev.) Tg CO₂yr^-1and 80 (± 89 std. dev.) Tg CO₂yr^-1in Alaska. These estimates have significant interannual and spatial variability. Needleleaf forests in the Southeastern US and the Western US are the dominant source regions for US fire CO₂emissions. Very high emission years typically coincide with droughts, and climatic variability is a major driver of the high interannual and spatial variation in fire emissions. The amount of CO₂emitted from fires in the US is equivalent to 4–6% of anthropogenic emissions at the continental scale and, at the state-level, fire emissions of CO₂can, in some cases, exceed annual emissions of CO₂from fossil fuel usage.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The CO₂released from fires, overall, is a small fraction of the estimated average annual Net Primary Productivity and, unlike fossil fuel CO₂emissions, the pulsed emissions of CO₂during fires are partially counterbalanced by uptake of CO₂by regrowing vegetation in the decades following fire. Changes in fire severity and frequency can, however, lead to net changes in atmospheric CO₂and the short-term impacts of fire emissions on monitoring, modeling, and carbon management policy are substantial.</p

Sugary Soda Consumption and Albuminuria: Results from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, 1999–2004

BACKGROUND: End-stage renal disease rates rose following widespread introduction of high fructose corn syrup in the American diet, supporting speculation that fructose harms the kidney. Sugar-sweetened soda is a primary source of fructose. We therefore hypothesized that sugary soda consumption was associated with albuminuria, a sensitive marker for kidney disease. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Design was a cross-sectional analysis. Data were drawn from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES), 1999-2004. The setting was a representative United States population sample. Participants included adults 20 years and older with no history of diabetes mellitus (n = 12,601); after exclusions for missing outcome and covariate information (n = 3,243), the analysis dataset consisted of 9,358 subjects. Exposure was consumption of two or more sugary soft drinks, based on 24-hour dietary recall. The main outcome measure was Albuminuria, defined by albumin to creatinine ratio cutpoints of >17 mg/g (males) and >25 mg/g (females). Logistic regression adjusted for confounders (diet soda, age, race-ethnicity, gender, poverty). Interactions between age, race-ethnicity, gender, and overweight-obesity were explored. Further analysis adjusted for potential mediators: energy intake, basal metabolic rate, obesity, hypertension, lipids, serum uric acid, smoking, energy expenditure, and glycohemoglobin. Alternative soda intake definitions and cola consumption were employed. RESULTS: Weighted albuminuria prevalence was 11%, and 17% consumed 2+ sugary soft drinks/day. The confounder-adjusted odds ratio for sugary soda was 1.40 (95% confidence interval: 1.13, 1.74). Associations were modified by gender (p = 0.008) and overweight-obesity (p = 0.014). Among women, the OR was 1.86 (95% CI: 1.37, 2.53); the OR among males was not significant. In the group with body mass under 25 kg/m(2), OR = 2.15 (95% confidence interval: 1.42, 3.25). Adjustment for potential mediators and use of alternative definitions of albuminuria and soda consumption did not appreciably change results. Diet sodas were not associated with albuminuria. CONCLUSIONS: Findings suggest that sugary soda consumption may be associated with kidney damage, although moderate consumption of 1 or fewer sodas does not appear to be harmful. Additional studies are needed to assess whether HFCS itself, overall excess intake of sugar, or unmeasured lifestyle and confounding factors are responsible

Salinity and Simulated Herbivory Influence Spartina alterniflora Traits and Defense Strategy

Sea level rise is expected to push saline waters into previously fresher regions of estuaries, and higher salinities may expose oligohaline marshes to invertebrate herbivores typically constrained by salinity. The smooth cordgrass, Spartina alterniflora (syn. Sporobolus alterniflorus), can defend itself against herbivores in polyhaline marshes, however it is not known if S. alterniflora’s defense varies along the mesohaline to oligohaline marsh gradient in estuaries. I found that S. alterniflora from a mesohaline marsh is better defended than plants from an oligohaline marsh, supporting the optimal defense theory. Higher salinity treatments lowered carbon content, C:N, and new stem biomass production, traits associated with a tolerance strategy, suggesting that salinity may mediate the defense response of S. alterniflora. Further, simulated herbivory increased the nitrogen content and decreased C:N of S. alterniflora. This indicates that grazing may increase S. alterniflora susceptibility to future herbivory via improved forage quality. Simulated herbivory also decreased both belowground and new stem biomass production, highlighting a potential pathway in which herbivory can indirectly facilitate marsh loss, as S. alterniflora biomass is critical for vertical accretion and marsh stability under future sea level rise scenarios

Global Pyrogeography: the Current and Future Distribution of Wildfire

Climate change is expected to alter the geographic distribution of wildfire, a complex abiotic process that responds to a variety of spatial and environmental gradients. How future climate change may alter global wildfire activity, however, is still largely unknown. As a first step to quantifying potential change in global wildfire, we present a multivariate quantification of environmental drivers for the observed, current distribution of vegetation fires using statistical models of the relationship between fire activity and resources to burn, climate conditions, human influence, and lightning flash rates at a coarse spatiotemporal resolution (100 km, over one decade). We then demonstrate how these statistical models can be used to project future changes in global fire patterns, highlighting regional hotspots of change in fire probabilities under future climate conditions as simulated by a global climate model. Based on current conditions, our results illustrate how the availability of resources to burn and climate conditions conducive to combustion jointly determine why some parts of the world are fire-prone and others are fire-free. In contrast to any expectation that global warming should necessarily result in more fire, we find that regional increases in fire probabilities may be counter-balanced by decreases at other locations, due to the interplay of temperature and precipitation variables. Despite this net balance, our models predict substantial invasion and retreat of fire across large portions of the globe. These changes could have important effects on terrestrial ecosystems since alteration in fire activity may occur quite rapidly, generating ever more complex environmental challenges for species dispersing and adjusting to new climate conditions. Our findings highlight the potential for widespread impacts of climate change on wildfire, suggesting severely altered fire regimes and the need for more explicit inclusion of fire in research on global vegetation-climate change dynamics and conservation planning

Testing Multiple Coordination Constraints with a Novel Bimanual Visuomotor Task

The acquisition of a new bimanual skill depends on several motor coordination constraints. To date, coordination constraints have often been tested relatively independently of one another, particularly with respect to isofrequency and multifrequency rhythms. Here, we used a new paradigm to test the interaction of multiple coordination constraints. Coordination constraints that were tested included temporal complexity, directionality, muscle grouping, and hand dominance. Twenty-two healthy young adults performed a bimanual dial rotation task that required left and right hand coordination to track a moving target on a computer monitor. Two groups were compared, either with or without four days of practice with augmented visual feedback. Four directional patterns were tested such that both hands moved either rightward (clockwise), leftward (counterclockwise), inward or outward relative to each other. Seven frequency ratios (3∶1, 2∶1, 3∶2, 1∶1, 2∶3. 1∶2, 1∶3) between the left and right hand were introduced. As expected, isofrequency patterns (1∶1) were performed more successfully than multifrequency patterns (non 1∶1). In addition, performance was more accurate when participants were required to move faster with the dominant right hand (1∶3, 1∶2 and 2∶3) than with the non-dominant left hand (3∶1, 2∶1, 3∶2). Interestingly, performance deteriorated as the relative angular velocity between the two hands increased, regardless of whether the required frequency ratio was an integer or non-integer. This contrasted with previous finger tapping research where the integer ratios generally led to less error than the non-integer ratios. We suggest that this is due to the different movement topologies that are required of each paradigm. Overall, we found that this visuomotor task was useful for testing the interaction of multiple coordination constraints as well as the release from these constraints with practice in the presence of augmented visual feedback