The Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (GeoMIP6): simulation design and preliminary results

International audienceWe present a suite of new climate model experiment designs for the Geoengineering Model Intercompari-son Project (GeoMIP). This set of experiments, named Ge-oMIP6 (to be consistent with the Coupled Model Intercom-parison Project Phase 6), builds on the previous GeoMIP project simulations, and has been expanded to address several further important topics, including key uncertainties in extreme events, the use of geoengineering as part of a portfolio of responses to climate change, and the relatively new idea of cirrus cloud thinning to allow more longwave radiation to escape to space. We discuss experiment designs, as well as the rationale for those designs, showing preliminary results from individual models when available. We also introduce a new feature, called the GeoMIP Testbed, which provides a platform for simulations that will be performed with a few models and subsequently assessed to determine whether the proposed experiment designs will be adopted as core (Tier 1) GeoMIP experiments. This is meant to encourage various stakeholders to propose new targeted experiments that address their key open science questions, with the goal of making GeoMIP more relevant to a broader set of communities

Holocene El Niño–Southern Oscillation variability reflected in subtropical Australian precipitation

The La Niña and El Niño phases of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) have major impacts on regional rainfall patterns around the globe, with substantial environmental, societal and economic implications. Long-term perspectives on ENSO behaviour, under changing background conditions, are essential to anticipating how ENSO phases may respond under future climate scenarios. Here, we derive a 7700-year, quantitative precipitation record using carbon isotope ratios from a single species of leaf preserved in lake sediments from subtropical eastern Australia. We find a generally wet (more La Niña-like) mid-Holocene that shifted towards drier and more variable climates after 3200 cal. yr BP, primarily driven by increasing frequency and strength of the El Niño phase. Climate model simulations implicate a progressive orbitally-driven weakening of the Pacific Walker Circulation as contributing to this change. At centennial scales, high rainfall characterised the Little Ice Age (~1450–1850 CE) in subtropical eastern Australia, contrasting with oceanic proxies that suggest El Niño-like conditions prevail during this period. Our data provide a new western Pacific perspective on Holocene ENSO variability and highlight the need to address ENSO reconstruction with a geographically diverse network of sites to characterise how both ENSO, and its impacts, vary in a changing climate

SMAD6 variants in craniosynostosis: genotype and phenotype evaluation

Purpose: Enrichment of heterozygous missense and truncating SMAD6 variants was previously reported in nonsyndromic sagittal and metopic synostosis, and interaction of SMAD6 variants with a common polymorphism near BMP2 (rs1884302) was proposed to contribute to inconsistent penetrance. We determined the occurrence of SMAD6 variants in all types of craniosynostosis, evaluated the impact of different missense variants on SMAD6 function, and tested independently whether rs1884302 genotype significantl

Diagnostic value of exome and whole genome sequencing in craniosynostosis

Background Craniosynostosis, the premature fusion of one or more cranial sutures, occurs in ~1 in 2250 births, either in isolation or as part of a syndrome. Mutations in at least 57 genes have been associated with craniosynostosis, but only a minority of these are included in routine laboratory genetic testing. Methods We used exome or whole genome sequencing to seek a genetic cause in a cohort of 40 subjects with craniosynostosis, selected by clinical or molecular geneticists as being high-priority cases, and in whom prior clinically driven genetic testing had been negative. Results We identified likely associated mutations in 15 patients (37.5%), involving 14 different genes. All genes were mutated in single families, except for IL11RA (two families). We classified the other positive diagnoses as follows: commonly mutated craniosynostosis genes with atypical presentation (EFNB1, TWIST1); other core craniosynostosis genes (CDC45, MSX2, ZIC1); genes for which mutations are only rarely associated with craniosynostosis (FBN1, HUWE1, KRAS, STAT3); and known disease genes for which a causal relationship with craniosynostosis is currently unknown (AHDC1, NTRK2). In two further families, likely novel disease genes are currently undergoing functional validation. In 5 of the 15 positive cases, the (previously unanticipated) molecular diagnosis had immediate, actionable consequences for either genetic or medical management (mutations in EFNB1, FBN1, KRAS, NTRK2, STAT3). Conclusions This substantial genetic heterogeneity, and the multiple actionable mutations identified, emphasises the benefits of exome/whole genome sequencing to identify causal mutations in craniosynostosis cases for which routine clinical testing has yielded negative results

Back to the future : using long-term observational and paleo-proxy reconstructions to improve model projections of Antarctic climate

Quantitative estimates of future Antarctic climate change are derived from numerical global climate models. Evaluation of the reliability of climate model projections involves many lines of evidence on past performance combined with knowledge of the processes that need to be represented. Routine model evaluation is mainly based on the modern observational period, which started with the establishment of a network of Antarctic weather stations in 1957/58. This period is too short to evaluate many fundamental aspects of the Antarctic and Southern Ocean climate system, such as decadal-to-century time-scale climate variability and trends. To help address this gap, we present a new evaluation of potential ways in which long-term observational and paleo-proxy reconstructions may be used, with a particular focus on improving projections. A wide range of data sources and time periods is included, ranging from ship observations of the early 20th century to ice core records spanning hundreds to hundreds of thousands of years to sediment records dating back 34 million years. We conclude that paleo-proxy records and long-term observational datasets are an underused resource in terms of strategies for improving Antarctic climate projections for the 21st century and beyond. We identify priorities and suggest next steps to addressing this

Searches for lepton-flavour-violating decays of the Higgs boson in s=13\sqrt{s}=13 TeV pp\mathit{pp} collisions with the ATLAS detector

This Letter presents direct searches for lepton flavour violation in Higgs boson decays, H → eτ and H → μτ , performed with the ATLAS detector at the LHC. The searches are based on a data sample of proton–proton collisions at a centre-of-mass energy √s = 13 TeV, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 36.1 fb−1. No significant excess is observed above the expected background from Standard Model processes. The observed (median expected) 95% confidence-level upper limits on the leptonflavour-violating branching ratios are 0.47% (0.34+0.13−0.10%) and 0.28% (0.37+0.14−0.10%) for H → eτ and H → μτ , respectively.publishedVersio

Combination of searches for Higgs boson pairs in pp collisions at \sqrts = 13 TeV with the ATLAS detector

This letter presents a combination of searches for Higgs boson pair production using up to 36.1 fb(-1) of proton-proton collision data at a centre-of-mass energy root s = 13 TeV recorded with the ATLAS detector at the LHC. The combination is performed using six analyses searching for Higgs boson pairs decaying into the b (b) over barb (b) over bar, b (b) over barW(+)W(-), b (b) over bar tau(+)tau(-), W+W-W+W-, b (b) over bar gamma gamma and W+W-gamma gamma final states. Results are presented for non-resonant and resonant Higgs boson pair production modes. No statistically significant excess in data above the Standard Model predictions is found. The combined observed (expected) limit at 95% confidence level on the non-resonant Higgs boson pair production cross-section is 6.9 (10) times the predicted Standard Model cross-section. Limits are also set on the ratio (kappa(lambda)) of the Higgs boson self-coupling to its Standard Model value. This ratio is constrained at 95% confidence level in observation (expectation) to -5.0 &lt; kappa(lambda) &lt; 12.0 (-5.8 &lt; kappa(lambda) &lt; 12.0). In addition, limits are set on the production of narrow scalar resonances and spin-2 Kaluza-Klein Randall-Sundrum gravitons. Exclusion regions are also provided in the parameter space of the habemus Minimal Supersymmetric Standard Model and the Electroweak Singlet Model. For complete list of authors see http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.physletb.2019.135103</p

Measurement of prompt photon production in sNN√=8.16 TeV p+Pb collisions with ATLAS

The inclusive production rates of isolated, prompt photons in p+Pb collisions at sNN√=8.16 TeV are studied with the ATLAS detector at the Large Hadron Collider using a dataset with an integrated luminosity of 165 nb−1 recorded in 2016. The cross-section and nuclear modification factor RpPb are measured as a function of photon transverse energy from 20 GeV to 550 GeV and in three nucleon-nucleon centre-of-mass pseudorapidity regions, (-2.83,-2.02), (-1.84,0.91), and (1.09,1.90). The cross-section and RpPb values are compared with the results of a next-to-leading-order perturbative QCD calculation, with and without nuclear parton distribution function modifications, and with expectations based on a model of the energy loss of partons prior to the hard scattering. The data disfavour a large amount of energy loss and provide new constraints on the parton densities in nuclei.We acknowledge the support of ANPCyT, Argentina; YerPhI, Ar-menia; ARC, Australia; BMWFW and FWF, Austria; ANAS, Azer-baijan; SSTC, Belarus; CNPq and FAPESP, Brazil; NSERC, NRC and CFI, Canada; CERN; CONICYT, Chile; CAS, MOST and NSFC, China; COLCIENCIAS, Colombia; MSMT CR, MPO CR and VSC CR, Czech Republic; DNRF and DNSRC, Denmark; IN2P3-CNRS, CEA-DRF/IRFU, France; SRNSFG, Georgia; BMBF, HGF, and MPG, Germany; GSRT, Greece; RGC, Hong Kong SAR, China; ISF and Benoziyo Center, Is-rael; INFN, Italy; MEXT and JSPS, Japan; CNRST, Morocco; NWO, Netherlands; RCN, Norway; MNiSW and NCN, Poland; FCT, Portu-gal; MNE/IFA, Romania; MES of Russia and NRC KI, Russian Fed-eration; JINR; MESTD, Serbia; MSSR, Slovakia; ARRS and MIZŠ, Slovenia; DST/NRF, South Africa; MINECO, Spain; SRC and Wallen-berg Foundation, Sweden; SERI, SNSF and Cantons of Bern and Geneva, Switzerland; MOST, Taiwan; TAEK, Turkey; STFC, United Kingdom; DOE and NSF, United States of America. In addition, in-dividual groups and members have received support from BCKDF, Canarie, CRC and Compute Canada, Canada; COST, ERC, ERDF, Hori-zon 2020, and Marie Skłodowska-Curie Actions, European Union; Investissements d’ Avenir Labex and Idex, ANR, France; DFG and AvH Foundation, Germany; Herakleitos, Thales and Aristeia pro-grammes co-financed by EU-ESF and the Greek NSRF, Greece; BSF-NSF and GIF, Israel; CERCA Programme Generalitat de Catalunya, Spain; The Royal Society and Leverhulme Trust, United Kingdom

Search for flavour-changing neutral currents in processes with one top quark and a photon using 81 fb⁻¹ of pp collisions at \sqrts = 13 TeV with the ATLAS experiment

A search for flavour-changing neutral current (FCNC) events via the coupling of a top quark, a photon, and an up or charm quark is presented using 81 fb−1 of proton–proton collision data taken at a centre-of-mass energy of 13 TeV with the ATLAS detector at the LHC. Events with a photon, an electron or muon, a b-tagged jet, and missing transverse momentum are selected. A neural network based on kinematic variables differentiates between events from signal and background processes. The data are consistent with the background-only hypothesis, and limits are set on the strength of the tqγ coupling in an effective field theory. These are also interpreted as 95% CL upper limits on the cross section for FCNC tγ production via a left-handed (right-handed) tuγ coupling of 36 fb (78 fb) and on the branching ratio for t→γu of 2.8×10−5 (6.1×10−5). In addition, they are interpreted as 95% CL upper limits on the cross section for FCNC tγ production via a left-handed (right-handed) tcγ coupling of 40 fb (33 fb) and on the branching ratio for t→γc of 22×10−5 (18×10−5). © 2019 The Author(s

A novel formulation of inhaled sodium cromoglicate (PA101) in idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis and chronic cough: a randomised, double-blind, proof-of-concept, phase 2 trial

Background Cough can be a debilitating symptom of idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) and is difficult to treat. PA101 is a novel formulation of sodium cromoglicate delivered via a high-efficiency eFlow nebuliser that achieves significantly higher drug deposition in the lung compared with the existing formulations. We aimed to test the efficacy and safety of inhaled PA101 in patients with IPF and chronic cough and, to explore the antitussive mechanism of PA101, patients with chronic idiopathic cough (CIC) were also studied. Methods This pilot, proof-of-concept study consisted of a randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial in patients with IPF and chronic cough and a parallel study of similar design in patients with CIC. Participants with IPF and chronic cough recruited from seven centres in the UK and the Netherlands were randomly assigned (1:1, using a computer-generated randomisation schedule) by site staff to receive PA101 (40 mg) or matching placebo three times a day via oral inhalation for 2 weeks, followed by a 2 week washout, and then crossed over to the other arm. Study participants, investigators, study staff, and the sponsor were masked to group assignment until all participants had completed the study. The primary efficacy endpoint was change from baseline in objective daytime cough frequency (from 24 h acoustic recording, Leicester Cough Monitor). The primary efficacy analysis included all participants who received at least one dose of study drug and had at least one post-baseline efficacy measurement. Safety analysis included all those who took at least one dose of study drug. In the second cohort, participants with CIC were randomly assigned in a study across four centres with similar design and endpoints. The study was registered with ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT02412020) and the EU Clinical Trials Register (EudraCT Number 2014-004025-40) and both cohorts are closed to new participants. Findings Between Feb 13, 2015, and Feb 2, 2016, 24 participants with IPF were randomly assigned to treatment groups. 28 participants with CIC were enrolled during the same period and 27 received study treatment. In patients with IPF, PA101 reduced daytime cough frequency by 31·1% at day 14 compared with placebo; daytime cough frequency decreased from a mean 55 (SD 55) coughs per h at baseline to 39 (29) coughs per h at day 14 following treatment with PA101, versus 51 (37) coughs per h at baseline to 52 (40) cough per h following placebo treatment (ratio of least-squares [LS] means 0·67, 95% CI 0·48–0·94, p=0·0241). By contrast, no treatment benefit for PA101 was observed in the CIC cohort; mean reduction of daytime cough frequency at day 14 for PA101 adjusted for placebo was 6·2% (ratio of LS means 1·27, 0·78–2·06, p=0·31). PA101 was well tolerated in both cohorts. The incidence of adverse events was similar between PA101 and placebo treatments, most adverse events were mild in severity, and no severe adverse events or serious adverse events were reported. Interpretation This study suggests that the mechanism of cough in IPF might be disease specific. Inhaled PA101 could be a treatment option for chronic cough in patients with IPF and warrants further investigation