26 research outputs found
Ross Gyre variability modulates oceanic heat supply toward the West Antarctic continental shelf
- Author
- Publication venue
- Publication date
- 01/01/2024
- Field of study
C.J.P., G.A.M., M.R.M., L.D.T., and S.T.G. were supported by NSF PLR-1425989 and OPP-1936222 (Southern Ocean Carbon and Climate Observations and Modeling project). C.J.P. received additional support from a NOAA Climate & Global Change Postdoctoral Fellowship. G.A.M. received additional support from UKRI Grant Ref. MR/W013835/1. G.E.M. was supported by NSF OPP-2220969. R.Q.P. was supported by the High Meadows Environmental Institute Internship Program. R.M. was supported by the General Sir John Monash Foundation. A.F.T. was supported by NSF OPP-1644172 and NASA grant 80NSSC21K0916. M.R.M. also acknowledges funding from NSF awards OCE-1924388 and OPP-2319829 and NASA awards 80NSSC22K0387 and 80NSSC20K1076.West Antarctic Ice Sheet mass loss is a major source of uncertainty in sea level projections. The primary driver of this melting is oceanic heat from Circumpolar Deep Water originating offshore in the Antarctic Circumpolar Current. Yet, in assessing melt variability, open ocean processes have received considerably less attention than those governing cross-shelf exchange. Here, we use Lagrangian particle release experiments in an ocean model to investigate the pathways by which Circumpolar Deep Water moves toward the continental shelf across the Pacific sector of the Southern Ocean. We show that Ross Gyre expansion, linked to wind and sea ice variability, increases poleward heat transport along the gyre’s eastern limb and the relative fraction of transport toward the Amundsen Sea. Ross Gyre variability, therefore, influences oceanic heat supply toward the West Antarctic continental slope. Understanding remote controls on basal melt is necessary to predict the ice sheet response to anthropogenic forcing.Publisher PDFPeer reviewe
Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
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- Abate Degu
- Abay Solomon M
- Abbafati Cristiana
- Abbasi Nooshin
- Abbastabar Hedayat
- Abd-Allah Foad
- Abdel-Rahman Omar
- Abdela Jemal
- Abdelalim Ahmed
- Abdi Alireza
- Abdollahpour Ibrahim
- Abdulkader Rizwan Suliankatchi
- Abebe Nebiyu Dereje
- Abebe Zegeye
- Abejie Ayenew Negesse
- Abera Semaw F
- Abil Olifan Zewdie
- Aboyans Victor
- Abraha Haftom Niguse
- Abrham Aklilu Roba
- Abu-Raddad Laith Jamal
- Abu-Rmeileh Niveen Me
- Abyu Gebre Y
- Accrombessi Manfred Mario Kokou
- Acharya Dilaram
- Acharya Pawan
- Adamu Abdu A
- Adebayo Oladimeji M
- Adedeji Isaac Akinkunmi
- Adedoyin Rufus Adesoji
- Adekanmbi Victor
- Adetokunboh Olatunji O
- Adhena Beyene Meressa
- Adhikari Tara Ballav
- Adib Mina G
- Adou Arsène Kouablan
- Adsuar Jose C
- Afarideh Mohsen
- Afshari Mahdi
- Afshin Ashkan
- Agarwal Gina
- Aghayan Sargis Aghasi
- Agius Dominic
- Agrawal Anurag
- Agrawal Sutapa
- Ahmadi Alireza
- Ahmadi Mehdi
- Ahmadieh Hamid
- Ahmed Muktar Beshir
- Ahmed Sayem
- Akalu Temesgen Yihunie
- Akanda Ali S
- Akbari Mohammad Esmaeil
- Akibu Mohammed
- Akinyemi Rufus Olusola
- Akinyemiju Tomi
- Akseer Nadia
- Al-Aly Ziyad
- Al-Eyadhy Ayman
- Al-Maskari Fatma
- Al-Mekhlafi Hesham M
- Al-Raddadi Rajaa M
- Alahdab Fares
- Alam Khurshid
- Alam Tahiya
- Albujeer Ammar
- Alebel Animut
- Alene Kefyalew Addis
- Alhabib Samia
- Ali Raghib
- Alijanzadeh Mehran
- Alizadeh-Navaei Reza
- Aljunid Syed Mohamed
- Alkerwi Ala'a
- Alla François
- Allebeck Peter
- Allen Christine A
- Almasi Ali
- Alonso Jordi
- Alsharif Ubai
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- Amare Azmeraw T
- Amenu Kebede
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- Asayesh Hamid
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- Tekle Merhawi Gebremedhin
- Temesgen Habtamu
- Temsah Mohamad-Hani
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- Teshome Destaw Fetene
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- Wilner Lauren B
- Winkler Andrea Sylvia
- Wiyeh Alison B
- Wiysonge Charles Shey
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- Wolfe Charles D A
- Wu Shouling
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- Xu Gelin
- Xu Rixing
- Yadollahpour Ali
- Yahyazadeh Jabbari Seyed Hossein
- Yakob Bereket
- Yamada Tomohide
- Yan Lijing L
- Yano Yuichiro
- Yaseri Mehdi
- Yasin Yasin Jemal
- Ye Pengpeng
- Yearwood Jamal A
- Yeshaneh Alex
- Yimer Ebrahim M
- Yip Paul
- Yirsaw Biruck Desalegn
- Yisma Engida
- Yonemoto Naohiro
- Yonga Gerald
- Yoon Seok-Jun
- Yotebieng Marcel
- Younis Mustafa Z
- Yousefifard Mahmoud
- Yu Chuanhua
- Zaman Sojib Bin
- Zamani Mohammad
- Zare Zohreh
- Zavala-Arciniega Luis
- Zegeye Desalegn Tegabu
- Zegeye Elias Asfaw
- Zeleke Ayalew Jejaw
- Zendehdel Kazem
- Zerfu Taddese Alemu
- Zhang Anthony Lin
- Zhang Xueying
- Zhou Maigeng
- Zhu Jun
- Zimsen Stephanie R M
- Zodpey Sanjay
- Zoeckler Leo
- Zucker Inbar
- Zuhlke Liesel Joanna J
- Ärnlöv Johan
- Çavlin Alanur
- Publication venue
- 'Elsevier BV'
- Publication date
- 01/01/2018
- Field of study
Background: Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of “leaving no one behind”, it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990–2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. Methods: We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0–100, with 0 as the 2\ub75th percentile and 100 as the 97\ub75th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator. Findings: The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59\ub74 (IQR 35\ub74–67\ub73), ranging from a low of 11\ub76 (95% uncertainty interval 9\ub76–14\ub70) to a high of 84\ub79 (83\ub71–86\ub77). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030. Interpretation: The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health-related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health-related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence-related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains—curative interventions in the case of NCDs—towards multisectoral, prevention-oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the SDGs. What is clear is that our actions—or inaction—today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030
Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017.
- Author
- Abate Degu
- Abay Solomon M
- Abbafati Cristiana
- Abbasi Nooshin
- Abbastabar Hedayat
- Abd-Allah Foad
- Abdel-Rahman Omar
- Abdela Jemal
- Abdelalim Ahmed
- Abdi Alireza
- Abdollahpour Ibrahim
- Abdulkader Rizwan Suliankatchi
- Abebe Nebiyu Dereje
- Abebe Zegeye
- Abejie Ayenew Negesse
- Abera Semaw F
- Abil Olifan Zewdie
- Aboyans Victor
- Abraha Haftom Niguse
- Abrham Aklilu Roba
- Abu-Raddad Laith Jamal
- Abu-Rmeileh Niveen Me
- Abyu Gebre Y
- Accrombessi Manfred Mario Kokou
- Acharya Dilaram
- Acharya Pawan
- Adamu Abdu A
- Adebayo Oladimeji M
- Adedeji Isaac Akinkunmi
- Adedoyin Rufus Adesoji
- Adekanmbi Victor
- Adetokunboh Olatunji O
- Adhena Beyene Meressa
- Adhikari Tara Ballav
- Adib Mina G
- Adou Arsène Kouablan
- Adsuar Jose C
- Afarideh Mohsen
- Afshari Mahdi
- Afshin Ashkan
- Agarwal Gina
- Aghayan Sargis Aghasi
- Agius Dominic
- Agrawal Anurag
- Agrawal Sutapa
- Ahmadi Alireza
- Ahmadi Mehdi
- Ahmadieh Hamid
- Ahmed Muktar Beshir
- Ahmed Sayem
- Akalu Temesgen Yihunie
- Akanda Ali S
- Akbari Mohammad Esmaeil
- Akibu Mohammed
- Akinyemi Rufus Olusola
- Akinyemiju Tomi
- Akseer Nadia
- Al-Aly Ziyad
- Al-Eyadhy Ayman
- Al-Maskari Fatma
- Al-Mekhlafi Hesham M
- Al-Raddadi Rajaa M
- Alahdab Fares
- Alam Khurshid
- Alam Tahiya
- Albujeer Ammar
- Alebel Animut
- Alene Kefyalew Addis
- Alhabib Samia
- Ali Raghib
- Alijanzadeh Mehran
- Alizadeh-Navaei Reza
- Aljunid Syed Mohamed
- Alkerwi Ala'a
- Alla François
- Allebeck Peter
- Allen Christine A
- Almasi Ali
- Alonso Jordi
- Alsharif Ubai
- Altirkawi Khalid
- Alvis-Guzman Nelson
- Amare Azmeraw T
- Amenu Kebede
- Amini Erfan
- Ammar Walid
- Anber Nahla Hamed
- Anderson Jason A
- Andrei Catalina Liliana
- Androudi Sofia
- Animut Megbaru Debalkie
- Anjomshoa Mina
- Ansari Hossein
- Ansariadi Ansariadi
- Ansha Mustafa Geleto
- Antonio Carl Abelardo T
- Anwari Palwasha
- Appiah Lambert Tetteh
- Aremu Olatunde
- Areri Habtamu Abera
- Arora Monika
- Aryal Krishna K
- Asayesh Hamid
- Asfaw Ephrem Tsegay
- Asgedom Solomon Weldegebreal
- Asghar Rana Jawad
- Assadi Reza
- Ataro Zerihun
- Atique Suleman
- Atre Sachin R
- Atteraya Madhu Sudhan
- Ausloos Marcel
- Avila-Burgos Leticia
- Avokpaho Euripide F G A
- Awasthi Ashish
- Ayala Quintanilla Beatriz Paulina
- Ayele Henok Tadesse
- Ayele Yohanes
- Ayer Rakesh
- Azarpazhooh Mahmoud Reza
- Azzopardi Peter S
- Azzopardi-Muscat Natasha
- Babalola Tesleem Kayode
- Babazadeh Arefeh
- Badali Hamid
- Badawi Alaa
- Balakrishnan Kalpana
- Bali Ayele Geleto
- Banach Maciej
- Banerjee Amitava
- Banoub Joseph Adel Mattar
- Banstola Amrit
- Barac Aleksandra
- Barboza Miguel A
- Barker-Collo Suzanne Lyn
- Barrero Lope H
- Barthelemy Celine M
- Bassat Quique
- Basu Arindam
- Basu Sanjay
- Battista Robert J
- Baune Bernhard T
- Baynes Habtamu Wondifraw
- Bazargan-Hejazi Shahrzad
- Bedi Neeraj
- Beghi Ettore
- Behzadifar Masoud
- Behzadifar Meysam
- Bekele Bayu Begashaw
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- Belay Aregawi Gebreyesus
- Belay Saba Abraham
- Belay Yihalem Abebe
- Bell Michelle L
- Bello Aminu K
- Bennett Derrick A
- Bensenor Isabela M
- Benzian Habib
- Berhane Adugnaw
- Berhe Abadi Kidanemariam
- Berman Adam E
- Bernabe Eduardo
- Bernstein Robert S
- Bertolacci Gregory J
- Beuran Mircea
- Beyranvand Tina
- Bhala Neeraj
- Bhalla Ashish
- Bhansali Anil
- Bhattarai Suraj
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- Bhutta Zulfiqar A
- Biadgo Belete
- Biehl Molly H
- Bijani Ali
- Bikbov Boris
- Bililign Nigus
- Bin Sayeed Muhammad Shahdaat
- Birlik Sait Mentes
- Birungi Charles
- Bisanzio Donal
- Biswas Tuhin
- Bitew Helen
- Bizuneh Hailemichael
- Bjertness Espen
- Bobasa Eshetu Mulisa
- Boufous Soufiane
- Bourne Rupert
- Bozorgmehr Kayvan
- Bragazzi Nicola Luigi
- Brainin Michael
- Brant Luisa C
- Brauer Michael
- Brazinova Alexandra
- Breitborde Nicholas J K
- Briant Paul Svitil
- Britton Gabrielle
- Brugha Traolach
- Bukhman Gene
- Busse Reinhard
- Butt Zahid A
- Bärnighausen Till Winfried
- Béjot Yannick
- Cahuana-Hurtado Lucero
- Callender Charlton SKH
- Campos-Nonato Ismael R
- Campuzano Rincon Julio Cesar
- Cano Jorge
- Car Josip
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- Castañeda-Orjuela Carlos A
- Castillo Rivas Jacqueline
- Castro Franz
- Causey Kate
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- Cerin Ester
- Chaiah Yazan
- Chalek Julian
- Chang Hsing-Yi
- Chang Jung-Chen
- Chattopadhyay Aparajita
- Chattu Vijay Kumar
- Chaturvedi Pankaj
- Chiang Peggy Pei-Chia
- Chin Ken Lee
- Chisumpa Vesper Hichilombwe
- Chitheer Abdulaal
- Choi Jee-Young J
- Chowdhury Rajiv
- Christensen Hanne
- Christopher Devasahayam J
- Chung Sheng-Chia
- Cicuttini Flavia M
- Ciobanu Liliana G
- Cirillo Massimo
- Claro Rafael M
- Claßen Thomas Khaled Dwayne
- Cohen Aaron J
- Collado-Mateo Daniel
- Cooper Cyrus
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- Cornaby Leslie
- Cortinovis Monica
- Costa Megan
- Cousin Ewerton
- Cromwell Elizabeth A
- Crowe Christopher Stephen
- Cunningham Matthew
- Cárdenas Rosario
- Daba Alemneh Kabeta
- Dadi Abel Fekadu
- Dandona Lalit
- Dandona Rakhi
- Dang Anh Kim
- Dargan Paul I
- Daryani Ahmad
- Das Gupta Rajat
- das Neves José
- Das Siddharth K
- Dasa Tamirat Tesfaye
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- Davis Adrian C
- Davitoiu Dragos Virgil
- Davletov Kairat
- Dayama Anand
- de Courten Barbora
- De Leo Diego
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- De Steur Hans
- Degefa Meaza Girma
- Degenhardt Louisa
- Degfie Tizta Tilahun
- Deiparine Selina
- Dellavalle Robert P
- Demoz Gebre Teklemariam
- Demtsu Balem
- Denova-Gutiérrez Edgar
- Deribe Kebede
- Dervenis Nikolaos
- Dessie Getenet Ayalew
- Dey Subhojit
- Dharmaratne Samath D
- Dhimal Meghnath
- Dicker Daniel
- Dinberu Mesfin Tadese
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- Djalalinia Shirin
- Do Huyen Phuc
- Dokova Klara
- Doku David Teye
- Douwes-Schultz Dirk
- Driscoll Tim Robert
- Duan Leilei
- Dubey Manisha
- Dubljanin Eleonora
- Duken Eyasu Ejeta
- Duncan Bruce B
- Duraes Andre R
- Ebrahimpour Soheil
- Edvardsson David
- El Bcheraoui Charbel
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- Eldrenkamp Erika
- Elyazar Iqbal RF
- Enayati Ahmadali
- Endries Aman Yesuf
- Eshrati Babak
- Eskandarieh Sharareh
- Esteghamati Alireza
- Esteghamati Sadaf
- Estep Kara
- Fakhar Mahdi
- Fakhim Hamed
- Fanzo Jessica
- Faramarzi Mahbobeh
- Fareed Mohammad
- Farhadi Farzaneh
- Farid Talha A
- Farinha Carla Sofia e Sá
- Farioli Andrea
- Faro Andre
- Farvid Maryam S
- Farzadfar Farshad
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- Farzam Hossein
- Fazaeli Ali Akbar
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- Fereshtehnejad Seyed-Mohammad
- Fernandes Eduarda
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- Feyissa Garumma Tolu
- Fijabi Daniel Obadare
- Filip Irina
- Finegold Samuel
- Finger Jonas David
- Fischer Florian
- Fitzmaurice Christina
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- Fukumoto Takeshi
- Fukutaki Kai
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- Gebrehiwot Tsegaye Tewelde
- Gebremedhin Amanuel Tesfay
- Gebremichael Bereket
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- Geramo Yilma Chisha Dea
- Getachew Sefonias
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- Gezae Kebede Embaye
- Ghadami Mohammad Rasoul
- Ghadimi Reza
- Ghadiri Keyghobad
- Ghasemi-Kasman Maryam
- Ghiasvand Hesam
- Ghimire Mamata
- Ghoshal Aloke Gopal
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- Grosso Giuseppe
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- Guillemin Francis
- Guimaraes Andre Luiz Sena
- Guo Yuming
- Gupta Prakash C
- Gupta Rahul
- Gupta Rajeev
- Gupta Tanush
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- Hachinski Vladimir
- Hafezi-Nejad Nima
- Haghparast Bidgoli Hassan
- Hagos Tekleberhan B
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- Tortajada-Girbés Miguel
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- Towbin Jeffrey A
- Tran Bach Xuan
- Tran Khanh Bao
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- Tripathy Srikanth Prasad
- Troeger Christopher E
- Truelsen Thomas Clement
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- Ullah Irfan
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- Varavikova Elena
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- Werdecker Andrea
- Werkneh Adhena Ayaliew
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- Whisnant Joanna L
- Whiteford Harvey A
- Widecka Justyna
- Widecka Katarzyna
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- Wilner Lauren B
- Winkler Andrea Sylvia
- Wiyeh Alison B
- Wiysonge Charles Shey
- Wolde Haileab Fekadu
- Wolfe Charles D A
- Wu Shouling
- Xavier Denis
- Xu Gelin
- Xu Rixing
- Yadollahpour Ali
- Yahyazadeh Jabbari Seyed Hossein
- Yakob Bereket
- Yamada Tomohide
- Yan Lijing L
- Yano Yuichiro
- Yaseri Mehdi
- Yasin Yasin Jemal
- Ye Pengpeng
- Yearwood Jamal A
- Yeshaneh Alex
- Yimer Ebrahim M
- Yip Paul
- Yirsaw Biruck Desalegn
- Yisma Engida
- Yonemoto Naohiro
- Yonga Gerald
- Yoon Seok-Jun
- Yotebieng Marcel
- Younis Mustafa Z
- Yousefifard Mahmoud
- Yu Chuanhua
- Zaman Sojib Bin
- Zamani Mohammad
- Zare Zohreh
- Zavala-Arciniega Luis
- Zegeye Desalegn Tegabu
- Zegeye Elias Asfaw
- Zeleke Ayalew Jejaw
- Zendehdel Kazem
- Zerfu Taddese Alemu
- Zhang Anthony Lin
- Zhang Xueying
- Zhou Maigeng
- Zhu Jun
- Zimsen Stephanie R M
- Zodpey Sanjay
- Zoeckler Leo
- Zucker Inbar
- Zuhlke Liesel Joanna J
- Ärnlöv Johan
- Çavlin Alanur
- Publication venue
- 'Elsevier BV'
- Publication date
- 01/01/2018
- Field of study
BACKGROUND: Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of 'leaving no one behind', it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990-2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. METHODS: We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0-100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile and 100 as the 97·5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator
Global burden of 369 diseases and injuries in 204 countries and territories, 1990–2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019
- Author
- Abbafati Cristiana
- Abbas Kaja M.
- Abbasi Mohammad
- Abbasi-Kangevari Mohsen
- Abbasifard Mitra
- Abbastabar Hedayat
- Abd El Razek Hassan Magdy
- Abd El Razek Muhammed Magdy
- Abd-Allah Foad
- Abdelalim Ahmed
- Abdollahi Mohammad
- Abdollahpour Ibrahim
- Abdulkader Rizwan Suliankatchi
- Abdullah Kanaan Hamagharib
- Abedi Aidin
- Abedi Parisa
- Abegaz Kedir Hussein
- Abolhassani Hassan
- Abosetugn Akine Eshete
- Aboyans Victor
- Abrams Elissa M.
- Abreu Lucas Guimaraes
- Abrigo Michael R. M.
- Abu Haimed Abdulaziz Khalid
- Abu-Gharbieh Eman
- Abu-Raddad Laith Jamal
- Abualhasan Ahmed
- Abushouk Abdelrahman I.
- Acebedo Alyssa
- Ackerman Ilana N.
- Adabi Maryam
- Adair Tim
- Adamu Abdu A.
- Adebayo Oladimeji M.
- Adedeji Isaac Akinkunmi
- Adekanmbi Victor
- Adelson Jaimie D.
- Adeoye Abiodun Moshood
- Adetokunboh Olatunji O.
- Adham Davoud
- Advani Shailesh M.
- Afarideh Mohsen
- Afshari Mahdi
- Afshin Ashkan
- Agardh Emilie E.
- Agarwal Gina
- Agasthi Pradyumna
- Agesa Kareha M.
- Aghaali Mohammad
- Aghamir Seyed Mohammad Kazem
- Agrawal Anurag
- Ahmad Tauseef
- Ahmadi Alireza
- Ahmadi Keivan
- Ahmadi Mehdi
- Ahmadieh Hamid
- Ahmadpour Ehsan
- Ahmed Muktar Beshir
- Aji Budi
- Akalu Temesgen Yihunie
- Akinyemi Rufus Olusola
- Akinyemiju Tomi
- Akombi Blessing
- Akunna Chisom Joyqueenet
- Al-Aly Ziyad
- Al-Mekhlafi Hesham M.
- Al-Raddadi Rajaa M.
- Alahdab Fares
- Alam Khurshid
- Alam Noore
- Alam Samiah
- Alam Tahiya
- Alanezi Fahad Mashhour
- Alanzi Turki M.
- Albertson Samuel B.
- Alcalde-Rabanal Jacqueline Elizabeth
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- Publication venue
- Publication date
- 01/01/2020
- Field of study
Background: In an era of shifting global agendas and expanded emphasis on non-communicable diseases and injuries along with communicable diseases, sound evidence on trends by cause at the national level is essential. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) provides a systematic scientific assessment of published, publicly available, and contributed data on incidence, prevalence, and mortality for a mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive list of diseases and injuries. Methods: GBD estimates incidence, prevalence, mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) due to 369 diseases and injuries, for two sexes, and for 204 countries and territories. Input data were extracted from censuses, household surveys, civil registration and vital statistics, disease registries, health service use, air pollution monitors, satellite imaging, disease notifications, and other sources. Cause-specific death rates and cause fractions were calculated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model and spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression. Cause-specific deaths were adjusted to match the total all-cause deaths calculated as part of the GBD population, fertility, and mortality estimates. Deaths were multiplied by standard life expectancy at each age to calculate YLLs. A Bayesian meta-regression modelling tool, DisMod-MR 2.1, was used to ensure consistency between incidence, prevalence, remission, excess mortality, and cause-specific mortality for most causes. Prevalence estimates were multiplied by disability weights for mutually exclusive sequelae of diseases and injuries to calculate YLDs. We considered results in the context of the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite indicator of income per capita, years of schooling, and fertility rate in females younger than 25 years. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered 1000 draw values of the posterior distribution. Findings: Global health has steadily improved over the past 30 years as measured by age-standardised DALY rates. After taking into account population growth and ageing, the absolute number of DALYs has remained stable. Since 2010, the pace of decline in global age-standardised DALY rates has accelerated in age groups younger than 50 years compared with the 1990–2010 time period, with the greatest annualised rate of decline occurring in the 0–9-year age group. Six infectious diseases were among the top ten causes of DALYs in children younger than 10 years in 2019: lower respiratory infections (ranked second), diarrhoeal diseases (third), malaria (fifth), meningitis (sixth), whooping cough (ninth), and sexually transmitted infections (which, in this age group, is fully accounted for by congenital syphilis; ranked tenth). In adolescents aged 10–24 years, three injury causes were among the top causes of DALYs: road injuries (ranked first), self-harm (third), and interpersonal violence (fifth). Five of the causes that were in the top ten for ages 10–24 years were also in the top ten in the 25–49-year age group: road injuries (ranked first), HIV/AIDS (second), low back pain (fourth), headache disorders (fifth), and depressive disorders (sixth). In 2019, ischaemic heart disease and stroke were the top-ranked causes of DALYs in both the 50–74-year and 75-years-and-older age groups. Since 1990, there has been a marked shift towards a greater proportion of burden due to YLDs from non-communicable diseases and injuries. In 2019, there were 11 countries where non-communicable disease and injury YLDs constituted more than half of all disease burden. Decreases in age-standardised DALY rates have accelerated over the past decade in countries at the lower end of the SDI range, while improvements have started to stagnate or even reverse in countries with higher SDI. Interpretation: As disability becomes an increasingly large component of disease burden and a larger component of health expenditure, greater research and developm nt investment is needed to identify new, more effective intervention strategies. With a rapidly ageing global population, the demands on health services to deal with disabling outcomes, which increase with age, will require policy makers to anticipate these changes. The mix of universal and more geographically specific influences on health reinforces the need for regular reporting on population health in detail and by underlying cause to help decision makers to identify success stories of disease control to emulate, as well as opportunities to improve. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2020 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 licens
Search for gravitational-lensing signatures in the full third observing run of the LIGO-Virgo network
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- Yoshioka T.
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- Zahoor Jan Aasim
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- Zeidler Simon
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- Zhan M.
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- Zhao Yue
- Zhao Yuhang
- Zheng Yanyan
- Zhou R.
- Zhu Xingjiang
- Zhu Zong-Hong
- Zimmerman Aaron
- Zucker M. E.
- Árpád Gergely László
- 劉 國欽
- 曹周键
- 王谨
- 都丸 隆行
- Publication venue
- Publication date
- 01/04/2023
- Field of study
Gravitational lensing by massive objects along the line of sight to the source causes distortions of gravitational wave-signals; such distortions may reveal information about fundamental physics, cosmology and astrophysics. In this work, we have extended the search for lensing signatures to all binary black hole events from the third observing run of the LIGO--Virgo network. We search for repeated signals from strong lensing by 1) performing targeted searches for subthreshold signals, 2) calculating the degree of overlap amongst the intrinsic parameters and sky location of pairs of signals, 3) comparing the similarities of the spectrograms amongst pairs of signals, and 4) performing dual-signal Bayesian analysis that takes into account selection effects and astrophysical knowledge. We also search for distortions to the gravitational waveform caused by 1) frequency-independent phase shifts in strongly lensed images, and 2) frequency-dependent modulation of the amplitude and phase due to point masses. None of these searches yields significant evidence for lensing. Finally, we use the non-detection of gravitational-wave lensing to constrain the lensing rate based on the latest merger-rate estimates and the fraction of dark matter composed of compact objects
Search for eccentric black hole coalescences during the third observing run of LIGO and Virgo
- Author
- Abac A. G.
- Abbott R.
- Abe H.
- Acernese F.
- Ackley Kendall
- Adamcewicz C.
- Adhicary S.
- Adhikari Naresh
- Adhikari Rana X.
- Adkins V. K.
- Adya V. B.
- Affeldt C.
- Afif Ismail M.
- Agarwal D.
- Agathos Michalis
- Aguiar Odylio D.
- Aguilar I.
- Aiello Lorenzo
- Ain Anirban
- Ajith Parameswaran
- Akseli Hannuksela Otto
- Akutsu Tomotada
- Al-Jodah Ammar
- Albanesi S.
- Alberto Trani Alessandro
- Alfaidi Reem Atallah E
- Allocca Annalisa
- Alléné C.
- Almualla M.
- Altin Paul
- Amato Alex
- Amez-Droz L.
- Amorosi A.
- Anand S.
- Ananyeva A.
- Andersen R.
- Anderson Stuart
- Anderson Warren G.
- Andia Manuel
- Ando M.
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- Andrea Prodi Giovanni
- Andres Nicolas
- Andric Tomislav
- Andrés-Carcasona Marc
- Anne Bizouard Marie
- Ansoldi S.
- Antelis Javier M.
- Antier Sarah
- Antonio Font Roda Jose
- Aoumi M.
- Apostolatos T.
- Appavuravther E. Z.
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- Araya Akito
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- Aronson Scott
- Arun K. G.
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- Yang Yi
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- Yeh S. -W.
- Yelikar A. B.
- Yeung S. M. C.
- Yeung T. Y.
- Yokoyama Jun'ichi
- Yokozawa T.
- Yoo Jooheon
- Yu Hang
- Yuzurihara Hirotaka
- Zadrożny A.
- Zahoor Jan Aasim
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- Zanolin M.
- Zeeshan M.
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- Zendri J. -P.
- Zevin Michael
- Zhang Jue
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- Zhang T.
- Zhang Ya
- Zhang Yanqi
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- Zhao Yue
- Zhao Yuhang
- Zheng Yanyan
- Zhong Haowen
- Zhou R.
- Zhu Zong-Hong
- Zimmerman Aaron
- Zucker M. E.
- Zweizig John
- Álvarez-López S.
- Árpád Gergely László
- 劉 國欽
- 曹周键
- 都丸 隆行
- Publication venue
- Publication date
- 01/08/2023
- Field of study
Despite the growing number of confident binary black hole coalescences observed through gravitational waves so far, the astrophysical origin of these binaries remains uncertain. Orbital eccentricity is one of the clearest tracers of binary formation channels. Identifying binary eccentricity, however, remains challenging due to the limited availability of gravitational waveforms that include effects of eccentricity. Here, we present observational results for a waveform-independent search sensitive to eccentric black hole coalescences, covering the third observing run (O3) of the LIGO and Virgo detectors. We identified no new high-significance candidates beyond those that were already identified with searches focusing on quasi-circular binaries. We determine the sensitivity of our search to high-mass (total mass M>70 M⊙) binaries covering eccentricities up to 0.3 at 15 Hz orbital frequency, and use this to compare model predictions to search results. Assuming all detections are indeed quasi-circular, for our fiducial population model, we place an upper limit for the merger rate density of high-mass binaries with eccentricities 0<e≤0.3 at 0.33 Gpc−3 yr−1 at 90\% confidence level
Observation of gravitational waves from the coalescence of a 2.5−4.5 M⊙ compact object and a neutron star
- Author
- Abac Adrian
- Abbott R.
- Abouelfettouh I.
- Acernese F.
- Ackley Kendall
- Adhicary S.
- Adhikari Naresh
- Adhikari Rana X.
- Adkins V. K.
- Afif Ismail M.
- Agarwal Deepali
- Agathos Michalis
- Aghaei Abchouyeh Maryam
- Aguiar Odylio D.
- Aguilar I.
- Aiello Lorenzo
- Ain Anirban
- Ajith Parameswaran
- Akcay Sarp
- Akseli Hannuksela Otto
- Akutsu Tomotada
- Al-Jodah Ammar
- Al-Shammari S.
- Albanesi Simone
- Alex iandolo Guido
- Alfaidi Reem Atallah E
- Allocca Annalisa
- Alléné C.
- Altin Paul
- Alvarez-Lopez Sofia
- Amato Alex
- Amez-Droz L.
- Amorosi A.
- Amra C.
- Ananyeva A.
- Anderson Stuart
- Anderson Warren G.
- Andia Manuel
- Ando M.
- Andrade T.
- Andrea Prodi Giovanni
- Andres Nicolas
- Andric Tomislav
- Andrés Vallejo Peña Sergio
- Andrés-Carcasona Marc
- Anglin J.
- Anne Bizouard Marie
- Ansoldi Stefano
- Antelis Javier M.
- Antier Sarah
- Antoni Ramis Vidal Felip
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- Yasui H.
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- Yelikar A. B.
- Yin X.
- Yokoyama Jun'ichi
- Yokozawa T.
- Yoo Jooheon
- Yu Hang
- Yuan S.
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- Zhao Yuhang
- Zheng Yanyan
- Zhong Haowen
- Zhou R.
- Zhu Xingjiang
- Zhu Zong-Hong
- Zimmerman Aaron
- Zucker M. E.
- Zweizig John
- Árpád Gergely László
- 劉 國欽
- 都丸 隆行
- Publication venue
- Publication date
- 23/04/2024
- Field of study
Ultralight vector dark matter search using data from the KAGRA O3GK run
- Author
- Abac A. G.
- Abbott R.
- Abe H.
- Abouelfettouh I.
- Acernese F.
- Ackley Kendall
- Adamcewicz Christian
- Adhicary S.
- Adhikari Naresh
- Adhikari Rana X.
- Adkins V. K.
- Adya V. B.
- Affeldt C.
- Afif Ismail M.
- Agarwal Deepali
- Agathos Michalis
- Aguiar Odylio D.
- Aguilar I.
- Aiello Lorenzo
- Ain Anirban
- Ajith Parameswaran
- Akseli Hannuksela Otto
- Akutsu Tomotada
- Al-Jodah Ammar
- Al-Shammari S.
- Albanesi S.
- Alberto Trani Alessandro
- Alfaidi Reem Atallah E
- Allocca Annalisa
- Alléné C.
- Altin Paul
- Alvarez-Lopez Sofia
- Amato Alex
- Amez-Droz L.
- Amorosi A.
- Amra C.
- Anand S.
- Ananyeva A.
- Anderson Stuart
- Anderson Warren G.
- Andia Manuel
- Ando M.
- Andrade T.
- Andrea Prodi Giovanni
- Andres Nicolas
- Andric Tomislav
- Andrés-Carcasona Marc
- Anglin J.
- Anne Bizouard Marie
- Ansoldi S.
- Antelis Javier M.
- Antier Sarah
- Antoni Ramis Vidal Felip
- Antonietta Palaia Maria
- Antonio Font Roda Jose
- Aoumi M.
- Appavuravther E. Z.
- Appert S.
- Apple S. K.
- Arai Koji
- Araya Akito
- Araya Melody
- Areeda Joseph
- Argianas L. Granda
- Arif Shaikh Md
- Aritomi Naoki
- Armato F.
- Arnaud Nicolas
- Arogeti Megan
- Aronson Scott
- Arun K. G.
- Ashton Gregory
- Aso Yoichi
- Assiduo M.
- Aston S. M.
- Astone Pia
- Aubin Florian
- AVALLONE Guerino
- Babak Stanislav
- Badaracco Francesca
- Badger C.
- Bae Sangwook
- Bagnasco Stefano
- Bagui E.
- Bai Y.
- Baier Jeremy
- Bajpai Rishabh
- Baka T.
- Ball M.
- Ballardin G.
- Ballmer S. W.
- Banagiri Sharan
- Banerjee Biswajit
- Bankar Deepak
- Baral Pratyusava
- Barayoga J. C.
- Barish B. C.
- Barker D.
- Barneo Pablo
- Barone Fabrizio
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- Barta Dániel
- Barthelmy S. D.
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- Basalaev Artem
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- Basti Andrea
- Bawaj Mateusz
- Baxi P.
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- Bhowmick S.
- Bianchi A.
- Bilenko I. A.
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- Bitossi Massimiliano
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- Bogaert G.
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- Cannon Kipp C.
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- Chan M.
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- Chanial Pierre
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- Eisenmann M.
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- Emma Mattia
- Engelby E.
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- Estevez Dimitri
- Etzel T.
- Evans Matthew J.
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- Ewing B. E.
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- Faedi F.
- Fafone Viviana
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- Jiang Jun
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- Kajita Takaaki
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- Árpád Gergely László
- 劉 國欽
- 曹周键
- 都丸 隆行
- Publication venue
- Publication date
- 01/03/2024
- Field of study
Among the various candidates for dark matter (DM), ultralight vector DM can be probed by laser interferometric gravitational wave detectors through the measurement of oscillating length changes in the arm cavities. In this context, KAGRA has a unique feature due to differing compositions of its mirrors, enhancing the signal of vector DM in the length change in the auxiliary channels. Here we present the result of a search for U(1)B−L gauge boson DM using the KAGRA data from auxiliary length channels during the first joint observation run together with GEO600. By applying our search pipeline, which takes into account the stochastic nature of ultralight DM, upper bounds on the coupling strength between the U(1)B−L gauge boson and ordinary matter are obtained for a range of DM masses. While our constraints are less stringent than those derived from previous experiments, this study demonstrates the applicability of our method to the lower-mass vector DM search, which is made difficult in this measurement by the short observation time compared to the auto-correlation time scale of DM
Recommended from our members
Ross Gyre variability modulates oceanic heat supply toward the West Antarctic continental shelf
- Author
- Publication venue
- eScholarship, University of California
- Publication date
- 22/01/2024
- Field of study
Abstract:
West Antarctic Ice Sheet mass loss is a major source of uncertainty in sea level projections. The primary driver of this melting is oceanic heat from Circumpolar Deep Water originating offshore in the Antarctic Circumpolar Current. Yet, in assessing melt variability, open ocean processes have received considerably less attention than those governing cross-shelf exchange. Here, we use Lagrangian particle release experiments in an ocean model to investigate the pathways by which Circumpolar Deep Water moves toward the continental shelf across the Pacific sector of the Southern Ocean. We show that Ross Gyre expansion, linked to wind and sea ice variability, increases poleward heat transport along the gyre’s eastern limb and the relative fraction of transport toward the Amundsen Sea. Ross Gyre variability, therefore, influences oceanic heat supply toward the West Antarctic continental slope. Understanding remote controls on basal melt is necessary to predict the ice sheet response to anthropogenic forcing
Ross Gyre variability modulates oceanic heat supply toward the West Antarctic continental shelf
- Author
- Publication venue
- Publication date
- 22/01/2024
- Field of study
West Antarctic Ice Sheet mass loss is a major source of uncertainty in sea level projections. The primary driver of this melting is oceanic heat from Circumpolar Deep Water originating offshore in the Antarctic Circumpolar Current. Yet, in assessing melt variability, open ocean processes have received considerably less attention than those governing cross-shelf exchange. Here, we use Lagrangian particle release experiments in an ocean model to investigate the pathways by which Circumpolar Deep Water moves toward the continental shelf across the Pacific sector of the Southern Ocean. We show that Ross Gyre expansion, linked to wind and sea ice variability, increases poleward heat transport along the gyre’s eastern limb and the relative fraction of transport toward the Amundsen Sea. Ross Gyre variability, therefore, influences oceanic heat supply toward the West Antarctic continental slope. Understanding remote controls on basal melt is necessary to predict the ice sheet response to anthropogenic forcing