What Risk Assessments of Genetically Modified Organisms Can Learn from Institutional Analyses of Public Health Risks

The risks of genetically modified organisms (GMOs) are evaluated traditionally by combining hazard identification and exposure estimates to provide decision support for regulatory agencies. We question the utility of the classical risk paradigm and discuss its evolution in GMO risk assessment. First, we consider the problem of uncertainty, by comparing risk assessment for environmental toxins in the public health domain with genetically modified organisms in the environment; we use the specific comparison of an insecticide to a transgenic, insecticidal food crop. Next, we examine normal accident theory (NAT) as a heuristic to consider runaway effects of GMOs, such as negative community level consequences of gene flow from transgenic, insecticidal crops. These examples illustrate how risk assessments are made more complex and contentious by both their inherent uncertainty and the inevitability of failure beyond expectation in complex systems. We emphasize the value of conducting decision-support research, embracing uncertainty, increasing transparency, and building interdisciplinary institutions that can address the complex interactions between ecosystems and society. In particular, we argue against black boxing risk analysis, and for a program to educate policy makers about uncertainty and complexity, so that eventually, decision making is not the burden that falls upon scientists but is assumed by the public at large

Avian Conservation Practices Strengthen Ecosystem Services in California Vineyards

Insectivorous Western Bluebirds (Sialia mexicana) occupy vineyard nest boxes established by California winegrape growers who want to encourage avian conservation. Experimentally, the provision of available nest sites serves as an alternative to exclosure methods for isolating the potential ecosystem services provided by foraging birds. We compared the abundance and species richness of avian foragers and removal rates of sentinel prey in treatments with songbird nest boxes and controls without nest boxes. The average species richness of avian insectivores increased by over 50 percent compared to controls. Insectivorous bird density nearly quadrupled, primarily due to a tenfold increase in Western Bluebird abundance. In contrast, there was no significant difference in the abundance of omnivorous or granivorous bird species some of which opportunistically forage on grapes. In a sentinel prey experiment, 2.4 times more live beet armyworms (Spodoptera exigua) were removed in the nest box treatment than in the control. As an estimate of the maximum foraging services provided by insectivorous birds, we found that larval removal rates measured immediately below occupied boxes averaged 3.5 times greater than in the control. Consequently the presence of Western Bluebirds in vineyard nest boxes strengthened ecosystem services to winegrape growers, illustrating a benefit of agroecological conservation practices. Predator addition and sentinel prey experiments lack some disadvantages of predator exclusion experiments and were robust methodologies for detecting ecosystem services

Numerical simulation of explosive volcanic eruptions from the conduit flow to global atmospheric scales

Volcanic eruptions are unsteady multiphase phenomena, which encompass many inter-related processes across the whole range of scales from molecular and microscopic to macroscopic, synoptic and global. We provide an overview of recent advances in numerical modelling of volcanic effects, from conduit and eruption column processes to those on the Earth s climate. Conduit flow models examine ascent dynamics and multiphase processes like fragmentation, chemical reactions and mass transfer below the Earth surface. Other models simulate atmospheric dispersal of the erupted gas-particle mixture, focusing on rapid processes occurring in the jet, the lower convective regions, and pyroclastic density currents. The ascending eruption column and intrusive gravity current generated by it, as well as sedimentation and ash dispersal from those flows in the immediate environment of the volcano are examined with modular and generic models. These apply simplifications to the equations describing the system depending on the specific focus of scrutiny. The atmospheric dispersion of volcanic clouds is simulated by ash tracking models. These are inadequate for the first hours of spreading in many cases but focus on long-range prediction of ash location to prevent hazardous aircraft - ash encounters. The climate impact is investigated with global models. All processes and effects of explosive eruptions cannot be simulated by a single model, due to the complexity and hugely contrasting spatial and temporal scales involved. There is now the opportunity to establish a closer integration between different models and to develop the first comprehensive description of explosive eruptions and of their effects on the ground, in the atmosphere, and on the global climate

Polymorphisms in the multiple drug resistance protein 1 and in P-glycoprotein 1 are associated with time to event outcomes in patients with advanced multiple myeloma treated with bortezomib and pegylated liposomal doxorubicin

Single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in the multiple drug resistance protein 1 (MRP1) and P-glycoprotein 1 (MDR1) genes modulate their ability to mediate drug resistance. We therefore sought to retrospectively evaluate their influence on outcomes in relapsed and/or refractory myeloma patients treated with bortezomib or bortezomib with pegylated liposomal doxorubicin (PLD). The MRP1/R723Q polymorphism was found in five subjects among the 279 patient study population, all of whom received PLD + bortezomib. Its presence was associated with a longer time to progression (TTP; median 330 vs. 129 days; p = 0.0008), progression-free survival (PFS; median 338 vs. 129 days; p = 0.0006), and overall survival (p = 0.0045). MDR1/3435(C > T), which was in Hardy–Weinberg equilibrium, showed a trend of association with PFS (p = 0.0578), response rate (p = 0.0782) and TTP (p = 0.0923) in PLD + bortezomib patients, though no correlation was found in the bortezomib arm. In a recessive genetic model, MDR1/3435 T was significantly associated with a better TTP (p = 0.0405) and PFS (p = 0.0186) in PLD + bortezomib patients. These findings suggest a potential role for MRP1 and MDR1 SNPs in modulating the long-term outcome of relapsed and/or refractory myeloma patients treated with PLD + bortezomib. Moreover, they support prospective studies to determine if such data could be used to tailor therapy to the genetic makeup of individual patients

Crop pests and predators exhibit inconsistent responses to surrounding landscape composition

The idea that noncrop habitat enhances pest control and represents a win–win opportunity to conserve biodiversity and bolster yields has emerged as an agroecological paradigm. However, while noncrop habitat in landscapes surrounding farms sometimes benefits pest predators, natural enemy responses remain heterogeneous across studies and effects on pests are inconclusive. The observed heterogeneity in species responses to noncrop habitat may be biological in origin or could result from variation in how habitat and biocontrol are measured. Here, we use a pest-control database encompassing 132 studies and 6,759 sites worldwide to model natural enemy and pest abundances, predation rates, and crop damage as a function of landscape composition. Our results showed that although landscape composition explained significant variation within studies, pest and enemy abundances, predation rates, crop damage, and yields each exhibited different responses across studies, sometimes increasing and sometimes decreasing in landscapes with more noncrop habitat but overall showing no consistent trend. Thus, models that used landscape-composition variables to predict pest-control dynamics demonstrated little potential to explain variation across studies, though prediction did improve when comparing studies with similar crop and landscape features. Overall, our work shows that surrounding noncrop habitat does not consistently improve pest management, meaning habitat conservation may bolster production in some systems and depress yields in others. Future efforts to develop tools that inform farmers when habitat conservation truly represents a win–win would benefit from increased understanding of how landscape effects are modulated by local farm management and the biology of pests and their enemies

Mapping local patterns of childhood overweight and wasting in low- and middle-income countries between 2000 and 2017

A double burden of malnutrition occurs when individuals, household members or communities experience both undernutrition and overweight. Here, we show geospatial estimates of overweight and wasting prevalence among children under 5 years of age in 105 low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) from 2000 to 2017 and aggregate these to policy-relevant administrative units. Wasting decreased overall across LMICs between 2000 and 2017, from 8.4% (62.3 (55.1–70.8) million) to 6.4% (58.3 (47.6–70.7) million), but is predicted to remain above the World Health Organization’s Global Nutrition Target of <5% in over half of LMICs by 2025. Prevalence of overweight increased from 5.2% (30 (22.8–38.5) million) in 2000 to 6.0% (55.5 (44.8–67.9) million) children aged under 5 years in 2017. Areas most affected by double burden of malnutrition were located in Indonesia, Thailand, southeastern China, Botswana, Cameroon and central Nigeria. Our estimates provide a new perspective to researchers, policy makers and public health agencies in their efforts to address this global childhood syndemic

Mapping inequalities in exclusive breastfeeding in low- and middle-income countries, 2000–2018

Exclusive breastfeeding (EBF)—giving infants only breast-milk for the first 6 months of life—is a component of optimal breastfeeding practices effective in preventing child morbidity and mortality. EBF practices are known to vary by population and comparable subnational estimates of prevalence and progress across low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) are required for planning policy and interventions. Here we present a geospatial analysis of EBF prevalence estimates from 2000 to 2018 across 94 LMICs mapped to policy-relevant administrative units (for example, districts), quantify subnational inequalities and their changes over time, and estimate probabilities of meeting the World Health Organization’s Global Nutrition Target (WHO GNT) of ≥70% EBF prevalence by 2030. While six LMICs are projected to meet the WHO GNT of ≥70% EBF prevalence at a national scale, only three are predicted to meet the target in all their district-level units by 2030

Can Climate Change Trigger Massive Diversity Cascades in Terrestrial Ecosystems?

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Plant fitness assessment for wild relatives of insect resistant crops

Risk assessments of new insect-resistant crops will need to estimate the potential for increased weediness of wild crop relatives as a consequence of gene flow. When field experiments are precluded by containment concerns, simulation experiments can identify hazards or measure expected differences between GMOs and parental plants. To measure plant fitness consequences of wild plant protection from Bt-susceptible herbivores, we used topical sprays of bacterial Bacillus thuringiensis larvacide (Bt) on Brassica rapa. Spontaneous crosses between B. rapa and Bt cole crops cannot be precluded, especially if adoption of Bt varieties leads to high exposure. We compared survivorship and seed output of B. rapa that were either protected from or exposed to Bt-susceptible Lepidoptera in the various conditions where hybrids are likely to occur: cultivated (disked) soil, uncultivated agricultural field margins, and nearby non-crop habitats (meadows and ruderal areas). The relative effect of herbivore protection varied among years, habitats, and populations of seedlings. In 2003–2004, Bt sprays did not result in lower herbivory on B. rapa, and plant fitness was not increased. However, in 2004–2006 B. rapa seedlings protected from Bt-susceptible herbivores lived 25% longer, on average, than those that were exposed to these herbivores. In addition, an average B. rapa seedling sprayed with Bt throughout its lifetime was twice as likely to produce siliques and had 251% of the seed output of a seedling exposed to herbivores. The fitness advantage of Bt-based plant protection was apparent in 2004–2005 in half the plants that experienced higher herbivory, and for 2005–2006, was more pronounced in agricultural habitats than in meadows with established, perennial vegetation and less disturbance. Positive effects of Bt-based plant protection and greater fitness in disturbed habitats suggest that crop-wild gene flow may benefit weed populations, and that field tests with herbivore exclusion/addition experiments are feasible alternatives when molecular containment of transgenes restricts field experiments with insect resistant crop-wild hybrids