Forecasting rainfed sorghum yield using satellite-derived vegetation indices with limited ground-based information in Gadarif region, eastern Sudan

A practical crop growth and yield monitoring system based on satellite data is required and fundamental not only for precision farming, but also very useful for global food security enhancement. This study was performed to determine the optimal vegetation index and also to identify the best time for making a reliable crop yield forecast in one of the major sorghum-growing region (Gedarif State, Sudan). The study was also aimed to develop a simple yield prediction model which was later validated using an official yield data acquired during 2013 and 2014 cropping seasons from the Department of Information System and Statistical Analysis of the State Ministry of Agriculture, Gedarif State. The study used NASA’s multi-temporal MODerate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) land products with limited ground information. Relationship between sorghum yield and crop reflectance indicated that normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) at the third dekad of September (Sep.III) is the most appropriate to develop sorghum yield prediction model with higher R2 value of 0.77 (p<0.05) compared to other vegetation indices (normalized ratio vegetation index, NRVI and soil-adjusted vegetation index, SAVI). The plotting of estimated yield against actual yield during 2013 and 2014 cropping seasons revealed strong positive and linear correlations (R2 = 0.64 (p=0.06) and 0.74 (p<0.05), respectively with average R2 = 0.71 (p<0.001) for both seasons. This study concluded that a good prediction of rainfed sorghum yield could be achieved more than 30 days before harvesting with quick, accurate and cost-effective method compared to traditional field surveys

Impact of land-use changes on ant communities and the retention of ecosystem services in Rashad District, Southern Kordofan, Sudan

The ecological consequences of biodiversity loss are usually the reduction of ecosystem functions. These responses, however, differ depending on the type of land-use change and the ecological setting. We investigated the impact of land-use type and ecosystem functions on the ant assemblage of Rashad District, Sudan. We analysed the effects of three different land uses (soy monoculture, pasture and organic production of vegetables) on the ant community by assessing ant composition in 176 different locations. The collection sites were conventional soy monoculture, pastures, organic agriculture, and native vegetation such as Campo, Kubos, and forests. We recorded 264 ant species on the soil surface of the Rashad District, where 342 to 354 species were thought to exist. Pastures and organic agriculture areas have 61% and 56% of the native myrmecofauna, respectively, while conventional soy monoculture areas are home to only 17% of native ant species. Forest areas present a unique community, and soy monoculture areas have the strongest pattern of biotic homogenisation. We also detected that rare species (of low frequency) were the chief promoters of richness in the Rashad District, and the most threatened with local extinction, due to their low density and low occurrence in agrosystems. Overall, we found that agricultural expansion reduces ant diversity, particularly in soybean crops, and can affect ecosystem functions. To mitigate the reduction in the ant assemblage, we recommend the conservation of multiple natural habitats. Significance:• Agricultural land conversion and climate change play a major role in shaping tropical landscapes, but thedirect and indirect links to biodiversity and species community composition remain poorly understood.• Ant richness is correlated with biomass, demonstrating that the effects on ecosystem function aredependent on the particularities of each assessed function (such as resource type), the types of landuses, and the abundance of ants in the region.• Land-use effects on ant diversity were strongly scale dependent.• The highest ant diversity occurred in soy monoculture areas

Inequalities in the use of secondary prevention of cardiovascular disease by socioeconomic status: evidence from the PURE observational study

Background: There is little evidence on the use of secondary prevention medicines for cardiovascular disease by socioeconomic groups in countries at different levels of economic development. Methods: We assessed use of antiplatelet, cholesterol, and blood-pressure-lowering drugs in 8492 individuals with self-reported cardiovascular disease from 21 countries enrolled in the Prospective Urban Rural Epidemiology (PURE) study. Defining one or more drugs as a minimal level of secondary prevention, wealth-related inequality was measured using the Wagstaff concentration index, scaled from −1 (pro-poor) to 1 (pro-rich), standardised by age and sex. Correlations between inequalities and national health-related indicators were estimated. Findings: The proportion of patients with cardiovascular disease on three medications ranged from 0% in South Africa (95% CI 0–1·7), Tanzania (0–3·6), and Zimbabwe (0–5·1), to 49·3% in Canada (44·4–54·3). Proportions receiving at least one drug varied from 2·0% (95% CI 0·5–6·9) in Tanzania to 91·4% (86·6–94·6) in Sweden. There was significant (p<0·05) pro-rich inequality in Saudi Arabia, China, Colombia, India, Pakistan, and Zimbabwe. Pro-poor distributions were observed in Sweden, Brazil, Chile, Poland, and the occupied Palestinian territory. The strongest predictors of inequality were public expenditure on health and overall use of secondary prevention medicines. Interpretation: Use of medication for secondary prevention of cardiovascular disease is alarmingly low. In many countries with the lowest use, pro-rich inequality is greatest. Policies associated with an equal or pro-poor distribution include free medications and community health programmes to support adherence to medications. Funding: Full funding sources listed at the end of the paper (see Acknowledgments)

Mapping subnational HIV mortality in six Latin American countries with incomplete vital registration systems

BackgroundHuman immunodeficiency virus (HIV) remains a public health priority in Latin America. While the burden of HIV is historically concentrated in urban areas and high-risk groups, subnational estimates that cover multiple countries and years are missing. This paucity is partially due to incomplete vital registration (VR) systems and statistical challenges related to estimating mortality rates in areas with low numbers of HIV deaths. In this analysis, we address this gap and provide novel estimates of the HIV mortality rate and the number of HIV deaths by age group, sex, and municipality in Brazil, Colombia, Costa Rica, Ecuador, Guatemala, and Mexico.MethodsWe performed an ecological study using VR data ranging from 2000 to 2017, dependent on individual country data availability. We modeled HIV mortality using a Bayesian spatially explicit mixed-effects regression model that incorporates prior information on VR completeness. We calibrated our results to the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017.ResultsAll countries displayed over a 40-fold difference in HIV mortality between municipalities with the highest and lowest age-standardized HIV mortality rate in the last year of study for men, and over a 20-fold difference for women. Despite decreases in national HIV mortality in all countries-apart from Ecuador-across the period of study, we found broad variation in relative changes in HIV mortality at the municipality level and increasing relative inequality over time in all countries. In all six countries included in this analysis, 50% or more HIV deaths were concentrated in fewer than 10% of municipalities in the latest year of study. In addition, national age patterns reflected shifts in mortality to older age groups-the median age group among decedents ranged from 30 to 45years of age at the municipality level in Brazil, Colombia, and Mexico in 2017.ConclusionsOur subnational estimates of HIV mortality revealed significant spatial variation and diverging local trends in HIV mortality over time and by age. This analysis provides a framework for incorporating data and uncertainty from incomplete VR systems and can help guide more geographically precise public health intervention to support HIV-related care and reduce HIV-related deaths.Peer reviewe

Anemia prevalence in women of reproductive age in low- and middle-income countries between 2000 and 2018

Anemia is a globally widespread condition in women and is associated with reduced economic productivity and increased mortality worldwide. Here we map annual 2000–2018 geospatial estimates of anemia prevalence in women of reproductive age (15–49 years) across 82 low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), stratify anemia by severity and aggregate results to policy-relevant administrative and national levels. Additionally, we provide subnational disparity analyses to provide a comprehensive overview of anemia prevalence inequalities within these countries and predict progress toward the World Health Organization’s Global Nutrition Target (WHO GNT) to reduce anemia by half by 2030. Our results demonstrate widespread moderate improvements in overall anemia prevalence but identify only three LMICs with a high probability of achieving the WHO GNT by 2030 at a national scale, and no LMIC is expected to achieve the target in all their subnational administrative units. Our maps show where large within-country disparities occur, as well as areas likely to fall short of the WHO GNT, offering precision public health tools so that adequate resource allocation and subsequent interventions can be targeted to the most vulnerable populations.Peer reviewe

Mapping geographical inequalities in childhood diarrhoeal morbidity and mortality in low-income and middle-income countries, 2000–17 : analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Background Across low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs), one in ten deaths in children younger than 5 years is attributable to diarrhoea. The substantial between-country variation in both diarrhoea incidence and mortality is attributable to interventions that protect children, prevent infection, and treat disease. Identifying subnational regions with the highest burden and mapping associated risk factors can aid in reducing preventable childhood diarrhoea. Methods We used Bayesian model-based geostatistics and a geolocated dataset comprising 15 072 746 children younger than 5 years from 466 surveys in 94 LMICs, in combination with findings of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017, to estimate posterior distributions of diarrhoea prevalence, incidence, and mortality from 2000 to 2017. From these data, we estimated the burden of diarrhoea at varying subnational levels (termed units) by spatially aggregating draws, and we investigated the drivers of subnational patterns by creating aggregated risk factor estimates. Findings The greatest declines in diarrhoeal mortality were seen in south and southeast Asia and South America, where 54·0% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 38·1–65·8), 17·4% (7·7–28·4), and 59·5% (34·2–86·9) of units, respectively, recorded decreases in deaths from diarrhoea greater than 10%. Although children in much of Africa remain at high risk of death due to diarrhoea, regions with the most deaths were outside Africa, with the highest mortality units located in Pakistan. Indonesia showed the greatest within-country geographical inequality; some regions had mortality rates nearly four times the average country rate. Reductions in mortality were correlated to improvements in water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH) or reductions in child growth failure (CGF). Similarly, most high-risk areas had poor WASH, high CGF, or low oral rehydration therapy coverage. Interpretation By co-analysing geospatial trends in diarrhoeal burden and its key risk factors, we could assess candidate drivers of subnational death reduction. Further, by doing a counterfactual analysis of the remaining disease burden using key risk factors, we identified potential intervention strategies for vulnerable populations. In view of the demands for limited resources in LMICs, accurately quantifying the burden of diarrhoea and its drivers is important for precision public health

Search for the associated production of the Higgs boson with a top-quark pair

A search for the standard model Higgs boson produced in association with a top-quark pair t t ¯ H (tt¯H) is presented, using data samples corresponding to integrated luminosities of up to 5.1 fb &#8722;1 and 19.7 fb &#8722;1 collected in pp collisions at center-of-mass energies of 7 TeV and 8 TeV respectively. The search is based on the following signatures of the Higgs boson decay: H &#8594; hadrons, H &#8594; photons, and H &#8594; leptons. The results are characterized by an observed t t ¯ H tt¯H signal strength relative to the standard model cross section, &#956; = &#963;/&#963; SM ,under the assumption that the Higgs boson decays as expected in the standard model. The best fit value is &#956; = 2.8 ± 1.0 for a Higgs boson mass of 125.6 GeV

Measurement of prompt Jψ\psi pair production in pp collisions at \sqrt s = 7 Tev

Production of prompt J/ &#968; meson pairs in proton-proton collisions at s s&#8730; = 7 TeV is measured with the CMS experiment at the LHC in a data sample corresponding to an integrated luminosity of about 4.7 fb &#8722;1 . The two J/ &#968; mesons are fully reconstructed via their decays into &#956; + &#956; &#8722; pairs. This observation provides for the first time access to the high-transverse-momentum region of J/ &#968; pair production where model predictions are not yet established. The total and differential cross sections are measured in a phase space defined by the individual J/ &#968; transverse momentum ( p T J/ &#968; ) and rapidity (| y J/ &#968; |): | y J/ &#968; | 6.5 GeV/ c ; 1.2 4.5 GeV/ c . The total cross section, assuming unpolarized prompt J/ &#968; pair production is 1.49 ± 0.07 (stat) ±0.13 (syst) nb. Different assumptions about the J/ &#968; polarization imply modifications to the cross section ranging from &#8722;31% to +27%

Search for jet extinction in the inclusive jet-pT spectrum from proton-proton collisions at s=8 TeV

Published by the American Physical Society under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License. Further distribution of this work must maintain attribution to the author(s) and the published articles title, journal citation, and DOI.The first search at the LHC for the extinction of QCD jet production is presented, using data collected with the CMS detector corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 10.7  fb−1 of proton-proton collisions at a center-of-mass energy of 8 TeV. The extinction model studied in this analysis is motivated by the search for signatures of strong gravity at the TeV scale (terascale gravity) and assumes the existence of string couplings in the strong-coupling limit. In this limit, the string model predicts the suppression of all high-transverse-momentum standard model processes, including jet production, beyond a certain energy scale. To test this prediction, the measured transverse-momentum spectrum is compared to the theoretical prediction of the standard model. No significant deficit of events is found at high transverse momentum. A 95% confidence level lower limit of 3.3 TeV is set on the extinction mass scale