Estimating the frequency of volcanic ash clouds over northern Europe

Fine ash produced during explosive volcanic eruptions can be dispersed over a vast area, where it poses a threat to aviation, human health and infrastructure. Here, we focus on northern Europe, which lies in the principal transport direction for volcanic ash from Iceland, one of the most active volcanic regions in the world. We interrogate existing and newly produced geological and written records of past ash fallout over northern Europe in the last 1000 years and estimate the mean return (repose) interval of a volcanic ash cloud over the region to be 44 ± 7 years. We compare tephra records from mainland northern Europe, Great Britain, Ireland and the Faroe Islands, with records of proximal Icelandic volcanism and suggest that an Icelandic eruption with a Volcanic Explosivity Index rating (VEI) ≥ 4 and a silicic magma composition presents the greatest risk of producing volcanic ash that can reach northern Europe. None of the ash clouds in the European record which have a known source eruption are linked to a source eruption with VEI < 4. Our results suggest that ash clouds are more common over northern Europe than previously proposed and indicate the continued threat of ash deposition across northern Europe from eruptions of both Icelandic and North American volcanoes

Pleiotropic associations of heterozygosity for the SERPINA1 Z allele in the UK Biobank

Homozygosity for the SERPINA1 Z allele causes α1-antitrypsin deficiency, a rare condition that can cause lung and liver disease. However, the effects of Z allele heterozygosity on nonrespiratory phenotypes, and on lung function in the general population, remain unclear. We conducted a large, population-based study to determine Z allele effects on >2400 phenotypes in the UK Biobank (N=303 353). Z allele heterozygosity was strongly associated with increased height (β=1.02 cm, p=3.91×10−68), and with other nonrespiratory phenotypes including increased risk of gall bladder disease, reduced risk of heart disease and lower blood pressure, reduced risk of osteoarthritis and reduced bone mineral density, increased risk of headache and enlarged prostate, as well as with blood biomarkers of liver function. Heterozygosity was associated with higher height-adjusted forced expiratory volume in 1 s (FEV1) (β=19.36 mL, p=9.21×10−4) and FEV1/forced vital capacity (β=0.0031, p=1.22×10−5) in nonsmokers, whereas in smokers, this protective effect was abolished. Furthermore, we show for the first time that sex modifies the association of the Z allele on lung function. We conclude that Z allele heterozygosity and homozygosity exhibit opposing effects on lung function in the UK population, and that these associations are modified by smoking and sex. In exploratory analyses, heterozygosity for the Z allele also showed pleiotropic associations with nonrespiratory health-related traits and disease risk

Origin of depleted basalts during subduction initiation and early development of the Izu-Bonin-Mariana island arc: Evidence from IODP expedition 351 site U1438, Amami-Sankaku basin

The Izu-Bonin-Mariana (IBM) island arc formed following initiation of subduction of the Pacific plate beneath the Philippine Sea plate at about 52 Ma. Site U1438 of IODP Expedition 351 was drilled to sample the oceanic basement on which the IBM arc was constructed, to better understand magmatism prior to and during the subduction initiation event. Site U1438 igneous basement Unit 1 (150 m) was drilled beneath 1460 m of primarily volcaniclastic sediments and sedimentary rock. Basement basalts are microcrystalline to fine-grained flows and form several distinct subunits (1a-1f), all relatively mafic (MgO = 6.5–13.8%; Mg# = 52–83), with Cr = 71–506 ppm and Ni = 62–342 ppm. All subunits are depleted in non-fluid mobile incompatible trace elements. Ratios such as Sm/Nd (0.35–0.44), Lu/Hf (0.19–0.37), and Zr/Nb (55–106) reach the highest values found in MORB, while La/Yb (0.31–0.92), La/Sm (0.43–0.91) and Nb/La (0.39–0.59) reach the lowest values. Abundances of fluid-mobile incompatible elements, K, Rb, Cs and U, vary with rock physical properties, indicating control by post-eruptive seawater alteration, but lowest abundances are typical of fresh, highly depleted MORBs. Mantle sources for the different subunits define a trend of progressive incompatible element depletion. Inferred pressures of magma segregation are 0.6–2.1 GPa with temperatures of 1280–1470 °C. New 40Ar/39Ar dates for Site U1438 basalts averaging 48.7 Ma (Ishizuka et al., 2018) are younger that the inferred age of IBM subduction initiation based on the oldest ages (52 Ma) of IBM forearc basalts (FAB) from the eastern margin of the Philippine Sea plate. FAB are hypothesized to be the first magma type erupted as the Pacific plate subsided, followed by boninites, and ultimately typical arc magmas over a period of about 10 Ma. Site U1438 basalts and IBM FABs are similar, but Site U1438 basalts have lower V contents, higher Ti/V and little geochemical evidence for involvement of slab-derived fluids. We hypothesize that the asthenospheric upwelling and extension expected during subduction initiation occurred over a broad expanse of the upper plate, even as hydrous fluids were introduced near the plate edge to produce FABs and boninites. Site U1438 basalts formed by decompression melting during the first 3 Ma of subduction initiation, and were stranded behind the early IBM arc as mantle conditions shifted to flux melting beneath a well-defined volcanic front

Scalar Potential Without Cubic Term in 3-3-1 Models Without Exotic Electric Charges

A detailed study of the criteria for stability of the scalar potential, and the proper electroweak symmetry breaking pattern in some 3-3-1 models without exotic electric charges is presented. In this paper we concentrate in a scalar sector with three Higgs scalar triplets, with a potential that does not include the cubic term, due to the presence of a discrete symmetry. For the analysis we use, and improve, a method previously developed to study the scalar potential in the two-Higgs-doublet extension of the standard model. Our main result is to show the consistency of those 3-3-1 models without exotic electric charges.Comment: 19 page

Search for direct production of charginos and neutralinos in events with three leptons and missing transverse momentum in √s = 7 TeV pp collisions with the ATLAS detector

A search for the direct production of charginos and neutralinos in final states with three electrons or muons and missing transverse momentum is presented. The analysis is based on 4.7 fb−1 of proton–proton collision data delivered by the Large Hadron Collider and recorded with the ATLAS detector. Observations are consistent with Standard Model expectations in three signal regions that are either depleted or enriched in Z-boson decays. Upper limits at 95% confidence level are set in R-parity conserving phenomenological minimal supersymmetric models and in simplified models, significantly extending previous results

Jet size dependence of single jet suppression in lead-lead collisions at sqrt(s(NN)) = 2.76 TeV with the ATLAS detector at the LHC

Measurements of inclusive jet suppression in heavy ion collisions at the LHC provide direct sensitivity to the physics of jet quenching. In a sample of lead-lead collisions at sqrt(s) = 2.76 TeV corresponding to an integrated luminosity of approximately 7 inverse microbarns, ATLAS has measured jets with a calorimeter over the pseudorapidity interval |eta| < 2.1 and over the transverse momentum range 38 < pT < 210 GeV. Jets were reconstructed using the anti-kt algorithm with values for the distance parameter that determines the nominal jet radius of R = 0.2, 0.3, 0.4 and 0.5. The centrality dependence of the jet yield is characterized by the jet "central-to-peripheral ratio," Rcp. Jet production is found to be suppressed by approximately a factor of two in the 10% most central collisions relative to peripheral collisions. Rcp varies smoothly with centrality as characterized by the number of participating nucleons. The observed suppression is only weakly dependent on jet radius and transverse momentum. These results provide the first direct measurement of inclusive jet suppression in heavy ion collisions and complement previous measurements of dijet transverse energy imbalance at the LHC.Comment: 15 pages plus author list (30 pages total), 8 figures, 2 tables, submitted to Physics Letters B. All figures including auxiliary figures are available at http://atlas.web.cern.ch/Atlas/GROUPS/PHYSICS/PAPERS/HION-2011-02

Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and related phenotypes: polygenic risk scores in population-based and case-control cohorts

Background Genetic factors influence chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) risk, but the individual variants that have been identified have small effects. We hypothesised that a polygenic risk score using additional variants would predict COPD and associated phenotypes. Methods We constructed a polygenic risk score using a genome-wide association study of lung function (FEV1 and FEV1/forced vital capacity [FVC]) from the UK Biobank and SpiroMeta. We tested this polygenic risk score in nine cohorts of multiple ethnicities for an association with moderate-to-severe COPD (defined as FEV1/FVC <0·7 and FEV1 <80% of predicted). Associations were tested using logistic regression models, adjusting for age, sex, height, smoking pack-years, and principal components of genetic ancestry. We assessed predictive performance of models by area under the curve. In a subset of studies, we also studied quantitative and qualitative CT imaging phenotypes that reflect parenchymal and airway pathology, and patterns of reduced lung growth. Findings The polygenic risk score was associated with COPD in European (odds ratio [OR] per SD 1·81 [95% CI 1·74–1·88] and non-European (1·42 [1·34–1·51]) populations. Compared with the first decile, the tenth decile of the polygenic risk score was associated with COPD, with an OR of 7·99 (6·56–9·72) in European ancestry and 4·83 (3·45–6·77) in non-European ancestry cohorts. The polygenic risk score was superior to previously described genetic risk scores and, when combined with clinical risk factors (ie, age, sex, and smoking pack-years), showed improved prediction for COPD compared with a model comprising clinical risk factors alone (AUC 0·80 [0·79–0·81] vs 0·76 [0·75–0·76]). The polygenic risk score was associated with CT imaging phenotypes, including wall area percent, quantitative and qualitative measures of emphysema, local histogram emphysema patterns, and destructive emphysema subtypes. The polygenic risk score was associated with a reduced lung growth pattern. Interpretation A risk score comprised of genetic variants can identify a small subset of individuals at markedly increased risk for moderate-to-severe COPD, emphysema subtyp

Early carboniferous brachiopod faunas from the Baoshan block, west Yunnan, southwest China

38 brachiopod species in 27 genera and subgenera are described from the Yudong Formation in the Shidian-Baoshan area, west Yunnan, southwest China. New taxa include two new subgenera: Unispirifer (Septimispirifer) and Brachythyrina (Longathyrina), and seven new species: Eomarginifera yunnanensis, Marginatia cylindrica, Unispirifer (Unispirifer) xiangshanensis, Unispirifer (Septimispirifer) wafangjieensis, Brachythyrina (Brachythyrina) transversa, Brachythyrina (Longathyrina) baoshanensis, and Girtyella wafangjieensis. Based on the described material and constraints from associated coral and conodont faunas, the age of the brachiopod fauna from the Yudon Formation is considered late Tournaisian (Early Carboniferous), with a possibility extending into earlyViseacutean.<br /

Genetic predisposition to ductal carcinoma in situ of the breast

Background: Ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) is a non-invasive form of breast cancer. It is often associated with invasive ductal carcinoma (IDC), and is considered to be a non-obligate precursor of IDC. It is not clear to what extent these two forms of cancer share low-risk susceptibility loci, or whether there are differences in the strength of association for shared loci. Methods: To identify genetic polymorphisms that predispose to DCIS, we pooled data from 38 studies comprising 5,067 cases of DCIS, 24,584 cases of IDC and 37,467 controls, all genotyped using the iCOGS chip. Results: Most (67 %) of the 76 known breast cancer predisposition loci showed an association with DCIS in the same direction as previously reported for invasive breast cancer. Case-only analysis showed no evidence for differences between associations for IDC and DCIS after considering multiple testing. Analysis by estrogen receptor (ER) status confirmed that loci associated with ER positive IDC were also associated with ER positive DCIS. Analysis of DCIS by grade suggested that two independent SNPs at 11q13.3 near CCND1 were specific to low/intermediate grade DCIS (rs75915166, rs554219). These associations with grade remained after adjusting for ER status and were also found in IDC. We found no novel DCIS-specific loci at a genome wide significance level of P < 5.0x10-8. Conclusion: In conclusion, this study provides the strongest evidence to date of a shared genetic susceptibility for IDC and DCIS. Studies with larger numbers of DCIS are needed to determine if IDC or DCIS specific loci exist