The plan that failed : the United Nations development decade, and beyond

Development planners are sometimes accused of having too much confidence in their own activities and plans. The economic planner in particular is - even in the eyes of some 6f his fellow developers - a somewhat suspect individual, who has fallen in love with the techniques of quantitative economic analysis and policy making, who has been blinded to the intangible but profound differences in socio-cultural and political environment by his predilection for quantifiable economic relationships - a man, in short, who talks so often and so loudly about his equations and parameters, his ratios, percentages, and GNP estimates, that scientific modesty or a sense of inadequacy seem to be alien to his thinking and behaviour. I am sure that I will not surprise the audience when I say that to me the above picture is a caricature rather than a portrait of the economic planner. As always is the case with ~ caricature, there is some truth in it - though not necessarily much. However that may be, this is not the proper occasion to discuss-this point further, for the simple reason that an inaugural address is a monologue in its very nature. Perhaps I can weaken the impression that development planners behave as if they knew the answers to all questions by choosing as the starting point of my short expose a plan, a set of policy proposals, that is not going to be realized. Therefore, I should like to ask your attention for the Plan that failed. The plan concerned is formed by the proposals for action formulated and accepted by the United Nations at the beginning of the Development Decade

Characteristics of white blood cell count in acute lymphoblastic leukemia : A COST LEGEND phenotype-genotype study

Background White blood cell count (WBC) as a measure of extramedullary leukemic cell survival is a well-known prognostic factor in acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL), but its biology, including impact of host genome variants, is poorly understood. Methods We included patients treated with the Nordic Society of Paediatric Haematology and Oncology (NOPHO) ALL-2008 protocol (N = 2347, 72% were genotyped by Illumina Omni2.5exome-8-Bead chip) aged 1-45 years, diagnosed with B-cell precursor (BCP-) or T-cell ALL (T-ALL) to investigate the variation in WBC. Spline functions of WBC were fitted correcting for association with age across ALL subgroups of immunophenotypes and karyotypes. The residuals between spline WBC and actual WBC were used to identify WBC-associated germline genetic variants in a genome-wide association study (GWAS) while adjusting for age and ALL subtype associations. Results We observed an overall inverse correlation between age and WBC, which was stronger for the selected patient subgroups of immunophenotype and karyotypes (rho(BCP-ALL )= -.17, rho(T-ALL )= -.19; p < 3 x 10(-4)). Spline functions fitted to age, immunophenotype, and karyotype explained WBC variation better than age alone (rho = .43, p << 2 x 10(-6)). However, when the spline-adjusted WBC residuals were used as phenotype, no GWAS significant associations were found. Based on available annotation, the top 50 genetic variants suggested effects on signal transduction, translation initiation, cell development, and proliferation. Conclusion These results indicate that host genome variants do not strongly influence WBC across ALL subsets, and future studies of why some patients are more prone to hyperleukocytosis should be performed within specific ALL subsets that apply more complex analyses to capture potential germline variant interactions and impact on WBC.Peer reviewe

Urticaria: Collegium Internationale Allergologicum (CIA) Update 2020.

This update on chronic urticaria (CU) focuses on the prevalence and pathogenesis of chronic spontaneous urticaria (CSU), the expanding spectrum of patient-reported outcome measures (PROMs) for assessing CU disease activity, impact, and control, as well as future treatment options for CU. This update is needed, as several recently reported findings have led to significant advances in these areas. Some of these key discoveries were first presented at past meetings of the Collegium Internationale Allergologicum (CIA). New evidence shows that the prevalence of CSU is geographically heterogeneous, high in all age groups, and increasing. Several recent reports have helped to better characterize two endotypes of CSU: type I autoimmune (or autoallergic) CSU, driven by IgE to autoallergens, and type IIb autoimmune CSU, which is due to mast cell (MC)-targeted autoantibodies. The aim of treatment in CU is complete disease control with absence of signs and symptoms as well as normalization of quality of life (QoL). This is best monitored by the use of an expanding set of PROMs, to which the Angioedema Control Test, the Cholinergic Urticaria Quality of Life Questionnaire, and the Cholinergic Urticaria Activity Score have recently been added. Current treatment approaches for CU under development include drugs that inhibit the effects of signals that drive MC activation and accumulation, drugs that inhibit intracellular pathways of MC activation and degranulation, and drugs that silence MCs by binding to inhibitory receptors. The understanding, knowledge, and management of CU are rapidly increasing. The aim of this review is to provide physicians who treat CU patients with an update on where we stand and where we will go. Many questions and unmet needs remain to be addressed, such as the development of routine diagnostic tests for type I and type IIb autoimmune CSU, the global dissemination and consistent use of PROMs to assess disease activity, impact, and control, and the development of more effective and well-tolerated long-term treatments for all forms of CU

Contagion or Confusion? Why Conflicts Cluster in Space

Civil wars cluster in space as well as time. In this study, we develop and evaluate empirically alternative explanations for this observed clustering. We consider whether the spatial pattern of intrastate conflict simply stems from a similar distribution of relevant country attributes or whether conflicts indeed constitute a threat to other proximate states. Our results strongly suggest that there is a genuine neighborhood effect of armed conflict, over and beyond what individual country characteristics can account for. We then examine whether the risk of contagion depends on the degree of exposure to proximate conflicts. Contrary to common expectations, this appears not to be the case. Rather, we find that conflict is more likely when there are ethnic ties to groups in a neighboring conflict and that contagion is primarily a feature of separatist conflicts. This suggests that transnational ethnic linkages constitute a central mechanism of conflict contagion. © 2008 International Studies Association

Assessing land use and flood management impacts on ecosystem services in a river landscape (Upper Danube, Germany)

Rivers and floodplains provide many regulating, provisioning and cultural ecosystem services (ES) such as flood risk regulation, crop production or recreation. Intensive use of resources such as hydropower production, construction of detention basins and intensive agriculture substantially change ecosystems and may affect their capacity to provide ES. Legal frameworks such as the European Water Framework Directive, Bird and Habitats Directive and Floods Directive already address various uses and interests. However, management is still sectoral and often potential synergies or trade‐offs between sectors are not considered. The ES concept could support a joint and holistic evaluation of impacts and proactively suggest advantageous options. The river ecosystem service index (RESI) method evaluates the capacity of floodplains to provide ES by using a standardized five‐point scale for 1 km‐floodplain segments based on available spatial data. This scaling allows consistent scoring of all ES and their integration into a single index. The aim of this article is to assess ES impacts of different flood prevention scenarios on a 75 km section of the Danube river corridor in Germany. The RESI method was applied to evaluate scenario effects on 13 ES with the standardized five‐point scale. Synergies and trade‐offs were identified as well as ES bundles and dependencies on land use and connectivity. The ratio of actual and former floodplain has the strongest influence on the total ES provision: the higher the percentage and area of an active floodplain, the higher the sum of ES. The RESI method proved useful to support decision‐making in regional planning.BMBF, 033W024A, ReWaM - Verbundprojekt RESI: River Ecosystem Service Index, Teilprojekt

ARIA 2016 : Care pathways implementing emerging technologies for predictive medicine in rhinitis and asthma across the life cycle

The Allergic Rhinitis and its Impact on Asthma (ARIA) initiative commenced during a World Health Organization workshop in 1999. The initial goals were (1) to propose a new allergic rhinitis classification, (2) to promote the concept of multi-morbidity in asthma and rhinitis and (3) to develop guidelines with all stakeholders that could be used globally for all countries and populations. ARIA-disseminated and implemented in over 70 countries globally-is now focusing on the implementation of emerging technologies for individualized and predictive medicine. MASK [MACVIA (Contre les Maladies Chroniques pour un Vieillissement Actif)-ARIA Sentinel NetworK] uses mobile technology to develop care pathways for the management of rhinitis and asthma by a multi-disciplinary group and by patients themselves. An app (Android and iOS) is available in 20 countries and 15 languages. It uses a visual analogue scale to assess symptom control and work productivity as well as a clinical decision support system. It is associated with an inter-operable tablet for physicians and other health care professionals. The scaling up strategy uses the recommendations of the European Innovation Partnership on Active and Healthy Ageing. The aim of the novel ARIA approach is to provide an active and healthy life to rhinitis sufferers, whatever their age, sex or socio-economic status, in order to reduce health and social inequalities incurred by the disease.Peer reviewe

Cabbage and fermented vegetables : From death rate heterogeneity in countries to candidates for mitigation strategies of severe COVID-19

Large differences in COVID-19 death rates exist between countries and between regions of the same country. Some very low death rate countries such as Eastern Asia, Central Europe, or the Balkans have a common feature of eating large quantities of fermented foods. Although biases exist when examining ecological studies, fermented vegetables or cabbage have been associated with low death rates in European countries. SARS-CoV-2 binds to its receptor, the angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 (ACE2). As a result of SARS-CoV-2 binding, ACE2 downregulation enhances the angiotensin II receptor type 1 (AT(1)R) axis associated with oxidative stress. This leads to insulin resistance as well as lung and endothelial damage, two severe outcomes of COVID-19. The nuclear factor (erythroid-derived 2)-like 2 (Nrf2) is the most potent antioxidant in humans and can block in particular the AT(1)R axis. Cabbage contains precursors of sulforaphane, the most active natural activator of Nrf2. Fermented vegetables contain many lactobacilli, which are also potent Nrf2 activators. Three examples are: kimchi in Korea, westernized foods, and the slum paradox. It is proposed that fermented cabbage is a proof-of-concept of dietary manipulations that may enhance Nrf2-associated antioxidant effects, helpful in mitigating COVID-19 severity.Peer reviewe

Nrf2-interacting nutrients and COVID-19 : time for research to develop adaptation strategies

There are large between- and within-country variations in COVID-19 death rates. Some very low death rate settings such as Eastern Asia, Central Europe, the Balkans and Africa have a common feature of eating large quantities of fermented foods whose intake is associated with the activation of the Nrf2 (Nuclear factor (erythroid-derived 2)-like 2) anti-oxidant transcription factor. There are many Nrf2-interacting nutrients (berberine, curcumin, epigallocatechin gallate, genistein, quercetin, resveratrol, sulforaphane) that all act similarly to reduce insulin resistance, endothelial damage, lung injury and cytokine storm. They also act on the same mechanisms (mTOR: Mammalian target of rapamycin, PPAR gamma:Peroxisome proliferator-activated receptor, NF kappa B: Nuclear factor kappa B, ERK: Extracellular signal-regulated kinases and eIF2 alpha:Elongation initiation factor 2 alpha). They may as a result be important in mitigating the severity of COVID-19, acting through the endoplasmic reticulum stress or ACE-Angiotensin-II-AT(1)R axis (AT(1)R) pathway. Many Nrf2-interacting nutrients are also interacting with TRPA1 and/or TRPV1. Interestingly, geographical areas with very low COVID-19 mortality are those with the lowest prevalence of obesity (Sub-Saharan Africa and Asia). It is tempting to propose that Nrf2-interacting foods and nutrients can re-balance insulin resistance and have a significant effect on COVID-19 severity. It is therefore possible that the intake of these foods may restore an optimal natural balance for the Nrf2 pathway and may be of interest in the mitigation of COVID-19 severity