Estimating the global conservation status of more than 15,000 Amazonian tree species

Estimates of extinction risk for Amazonian plant and animal species are rare and not often incorporated into land-use policy and conservation planning. We overlay spatial distribution models with historical and projected deforestation to show that at least 36% and up to 57% of all Amazonian tree species are likely to qualify as globally threatened under International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List criteria. If confirmed, these results would increase the number of threatened plant species on Earth by 22%. We show that the trends observed in Amazonia apply to trees throughout the tropics, and we predict thatmost of the world’s >40,000 tropical tree species now qualify as globally threatened. A gap analysis suggests that existing Amazonian protected areas and indigenous territories will protect viable populations of most threatened species if these areas suffer no further degradation, highlighting the key roles that protected areas, indigenous peoples, and improved governance can play in preventing large-scale extinctions in the tropics in this century

Mapping density, diversity and species-richness of the Amazon tree flora

Using 2.046 botanically-inventoried tree plots across the largest tropical forest on Earth, we mapped tree species-diversity and tree species-richness at 0.1-degree resolution, and investigated drivers for diversity and richness. Using only location, stratified by forest type, as predictor, our spatial model, to the best of our knowledge, provides the most accurate map of tree diversity in Amazonia to date, explaining approximately 70% of the tree diversity and species-richness. Large soil-forest combinations determine a significant percentage of the variation in tree species-richness and tree alpha-diversity in Amazonian forest-plots. We suggest that the size and fragmentation of these systems drive their large-scale diversity patterns and hence local diversity. A model not using location but cumulative water deficit, tree density, and temperature seasonality explains 47% of the tree species-richness in the terra-firme forest in Amazonia. Over large areas across Amazonia, residuals of this relationship are small and poorly spatially structured, suggesting that much of the residual variation may be local. The Guyana Shield area has consistently negative residuals, showing that this area has lower tree species-richness than expected by our models. We provide extensive plot meta-data, including tree density, tree alpha-diversity and tree species-richness results and gridded maps at 0.1-degree resolution

Global, regional, and national age-sex-specific mortality and life expectancy, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

BACKGROUND: Assessments of age-specific mortality and life expectancy have been done by the UN Population Division, Department of Economics and Social Affairs (UNPOP), the United States Census Bureau, WHO, and as part of previous iterations of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD). Previous iterations of the GBD used population estimates from UNPOP, which were not derived in a way that was internally consistent with the estimates of the numbers of deaths in the GBD. The present iteration of the GBD, GBD 2017, improves on previous assessments and provides timely estimates of the mortality experience of populations globally. METHODS: The GBD uses all available data to produce estimates of mortality rates between 1950 and 2017 for 23 age groups, both sexes, and 918 locations, including 195 countries and territories and subnational locations for 16 countries. Data used include vital registration systems, sample registration systems, household surveys (complete birth histories, summary birth histories, sibling histories), censuses (summary birth histories, household deaths), and Demographic Surveillance Sites. In total, this analysis used 8259 data sources. Estimates of the probability of death between birth and the age of 5 years and between ages 15 and 60 years are generated and then input into a model life table system to produce complete life tables for all locations and years. Fatal discontinuities and mortality due to HIV/AIDS are analysed separately and then incorporated into the estimation. We analyse the relationship between age-specific mortality and development status using the Socio-demographic Index, a composite measure based on fertility under the age of 25 years, education, and income. There are four main methodological improvements in GBD 2017 compared with GBD 2016: 622 additional data sources have been incorporated; new estimates of population, generated by the GBD study, are used; statistical methods used in different components of the analysis have been further standardised and improved; and the analysis has been extended backwards in time by two decades to start in 1950. FINDINGS: Globally, 18·7% (95% uncertainty interval 18·4–19·0) of deaths were registered in 1950 and that proportion has been steadily increasing since, with 58·8% (58·2–59·3) of all deaths being registered in 2015. At the global level, between 1950 and 2017, life expectancy increased from 48·1 years (46·5–49·6) to 70·5 years (70·1–70·8) for men and from 52·9 years (51·7–54·0) to 75·6 years (75·3–75·9) for women. Despite this overall progress, there remains substantial variation in life expectancy at birth in 2017, which ranges from 49·1 years (46·5–51·7) for men in the Central African Republic to 87·6 years (86·9–88·1) among women in Singapore. The greatest progress across age groups was for children younger than 5 years; under-5 mortality dropped from 216·0 deaths (196·3–238·1) per 1000 livebirths in 1950 to 38·9 deaths (35·6–42·83) per 1000 livebirths in 2017, with huge reductions across countries. Nevertheless, there were still 5·4 million (5·2–5·6) deaths among children younger than 5 years in the world in 2017. Progress has been less pronounced and more variable for adults, especially for adult males, who had stagnant or increasing mortality rates in several countries. The gap between male and female life expectancy between 1950 and 2017, while relatively stable at the global level, shows distinctive patterns across super-regions and has consistently been the largest in central Europe, eastern Europe, and central Asia, and smallest in south Asia. Performance was also variable across countries and time in observed mortality rates compared with those expected on the basis of development. INTERPRETATION: This analysis of age-sex-specific mortality shows that there are remarkably complex patterns in population mortality across countries. The findings of this study highlight global successes, such as the large decline in under-5 mortality, which reflects significant local, national, and global commitment and investment over several decades. However, they also bring attention to mortality patterns that are a cause for concern, particularly among adult men and, to a lesser extent, women, whose mortality rates have stagnated in many countries over the time period of this study, and in some cases are increasing

Reducing the environmental impact of surgery on a global scale: systematic review and co-prioritization with healthcare workers in 132 countries

Background Healthcare cannot achieve net-zero carbon without addressing operating theatres. The aim of this study was to prioritize feasible interventions to reduce the environmental impact of operating theatres. Methods This study adopted a four-phase Delphi consensus co-prioritization methodology. In phase 1, a systematic review of published interventions and global consultation of perioperative healthcare professionals were used to longlist interventions. In phase 2, iterative thematic analysis consolidated comparable interventions into a shortlist. In phase 3, the shortlist was co-prioritized based on patient and clinician views on acceptability, feasibility, and safety. In phase 4, ranked lists of interventions were presented by their relevance to high-income countries and low–middle-income countries. Results In phase 1, 43 interventions were identified, which had low uptake in practice according to 3042 professionals globally. In phase 2, a shortlist of 15 intervention domains was generated. In phase 3, interventions were deemed acceptable for more than 90 per cent of patients except for reducing general anaesthesia (84 per cent) and re-sterilization of ‘single-use’ consumables (86 per cent). In phase 4, the top three shortlisted interventions for high-income countries were: introducing recycling; reducing use of anaesthetic gases; and appropriate clinical waste processing. In phase 4, the top three shortlisted interventions for low–middle-income countries were: introducing reusable surgical devices; reducing use of consumables; and reducing the use of general anaesthesia. Conclusion This is a step toward environmentally sustainable operating environments with actionable interventions applicable to both high– and low–middle–income countries

Global Retinoblastoma Presentation and Analysis by National Income Level

Importance: Early diagnosis of retinoblastoma, the most common intraocular cancer, can save both a child's life and vision. However, anecdotal evidence suggests that many children across the world are diagnosed late. To our knowledge, the clinical presentation of retinoblastoma has never been assessed on a global scale. Objectives: To report the retinoblastoma stage at diagnosis in patients across the world during a single year, to investigate associations between clinical variables and national income level, and to investigate risk factors for advanced disease at diagnosis. Design, Setting, and Participants: A total of 278 retinoblastoma treatment centers were recruited from June 2017 through December 2018 to participate in a cross-sectional analysis of treatment-naive patients with retinoblastoma who were diagnosed in 2017. Main Outcomes and Measures: Age at presentation, proportion of familial history of retinoblastoma, and tumor stage and metastasis. Results: The cohort included 4351 new patients from 153 countries; the median age at diagnosis was 30.5 (interquartile range, 18.3-45.9) months, and 1976 patients (45.4) were female. Most patients (n = 3685 84.7%) were from low-and middle-income countries (LMICs). Globally, the most common indication for referral was leukocoria (n = 2638 62.8%), followed by strabismus (n = 429 10.2%) and proptosis (n = 309 7.4%). Patients from high-income countries (HICs) were diagnosed at a median age of 14.1 months, with 656 of 666 (98.5%) patients having intraocular retinoblastoma and 2 (0.3%) having metastasis. Patients from low-income countries were diagnosed at a median age of 30.5 months, with 256 of 521 (49.1%) having extraocular retinoblastoma and 94 of 498 (18.9%) having metastasis. Lower national income level was associated with older presentation age, higher proportion of locally advanced disease and distant metastasis, and smaller proportion of familial history of retinoblastoma. Advanced disease at diagnosis was more common in LMICs even after adjusting for age (odds ratio for low-income countries vs upper-middle-income countries and HICs, 17.92 95% CI, 12.94-24.80, and for lower-middle-income countries vs upper-middle-income countries and HICs, 5.74 95% CI, 4.30-7.68). Conclusions and Relevance: This study is estimated to have included more than half of all new retinoblastoma cases worldwide in 2017. Children from LMICs, where the main global retinoblastoma burden lies, presented at an older age with more advanced disease and demonstrated a smaller proportion of familial history of retinoblastoma, likely because many do not reach a childbearing age. Given that retinoblastoma is curable, these data are concerning and mandate intervention at national and international levels. Further studies are needed to investigate factors, other than age at presentation, that may be associated with advanced disease in LMICs. © 2020 American Medical Association. All rights reserved

Imagerie sismique 3D de la zone de subduction à la frontière Colombie-Equateur

The Northern Andean convergent margin, where the Nazca plate plunges below the South American plate, is characterized by a morphologic, structural and seismic segmentation. Four subduction earthquakes shook the Colombian-Ecuador segment during the last century: 1906, 1942, 1958 and 1979. To determine the lithosperic structure at the Colombia-Ecuador border, and define the spatial extension of some velocity heterogeneities associated with margin seismic behaviour, Geoazur designed the geophysical experiment Esmeraldas between March and April 2005. This thesis consists in obtaining a 3D velocity model of the area by tomographic inversion of first arrival traveltimes, picked from OBS and land stations. Our 3D tomographic image shows two remarkable structures in the margin, that seem to have an impact on the regional geodynamic: a low velocity gradient backstop and a low velocity zone. Both structures seem to be at the seaward limit of the 1958 earthquake rupture zone.La marge convergente Nord-andine, où la subduction de la plaque Nazca sous la plaque Amérique du Sud a lieu, est caractérisée par une segmentation morphologique, structurale et sismique. Le segment qui correspond à la frontière entre la Colombie et l'Équateur a subi au cours du siècle dernier quatre grands séismes de subduction en 1906, 1942, 1958 et 1979. Afin de déterminer la structure lithosphérique à la frontière Colombie-Equateur et discuter de l'étendue spatiale de certaines hétérogénéités de vitesse imagées en 2D qui ont été associées au comportement sismique de la marge, une campagne sismique 3D a été réalisée, entre mars et avril 2005. Ce travail porte sur l'obtention d'un modèle tomographique 3D de vitesse de la zone de subduction à la frontière entre la Colombie et l'Équateur basé sur l'inversion des temps de premières arrivées des données de sismique réfraction. La tomographie 3D nous permet d'identifier deux structures particulières dans la marge, qui semblent jouer un rôle géodynamique important dans la région, un butoir à faible gradient de vitesse qui pourrait correspondre à une zone altérée de la marge par fracturation et percolation de fluides et une zone à faible vitesse entre 5 et 10 km de profondeur qui pourrait aussi marquer la présence de fluides. Ces deux structures semblent se trouver en relation géométrique avec la zone de rupture du séisme de 1958

Spleen volumetry and liver transient elastography: Predictors of persistent posthepatectomy decompensation in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma

International audienceBackground Posthepatectomy decompensation remains a frequent and poor outcome after hepatectomy, but its prediction is still inaccurate. Liver stiffness measurement can predict posthepatectomy decompensation, but there is a so-called “gray zone” that requires another predictor. Because splenomegaly is an objective sign of portal hypertension, we hypothesized that spleen volumetry could improve the identification of patients at risk. Methods Patients with hepatocellular carcinoma who underwent hepatectomy in our tertiary center between August 2014 and December 2017 were reviewed. The primary endpoint was to determine if the spleen volumetry and liver stiffness measurement were independent predictors of posthepatectomy decompensation, and secondarily, to determine if they were synergistic through a theoretic predictive model. Results One hundred and seven patients were included. The median follow-up time was 3 months (3–5). Postoperative 90-day mortality was 4.7%. By multivariate analysis, liver stiffness measurement and spleen volumetry predicted posthepatectomy decompensation. The liver stiffness measurement had a cutoff point of 11.6 kPa (area under receiver operating curve = 0.71 confidence interval 95% 0.71–0.88, sensitivity 89%, specificity 47%). The spleen volumetry cutoff point was 381.1 cm3 (area under receiver operating curve = 0.78, 95% confidence interval 0.77–0.93, sensitivity 55%, specificity 91%). The spleen volumetry improved prediction of posthepatectomy decompensation, because use of the spleen volumetry increased sensitivity (from 62% to 97%) and the negative predictive value (from 96% to 100%) along with a negligible decrease in specificity (from 96.7 to 93.4) and positive predictive value (from 64% to 59%) (P = .003). Conclusion Spleen volumetry (andgt;380 cm3) and liver stiffness measurement (andgt;12 kPa) are non-invasive, independent, and synergistic tools that appear to be able to predict posthepatectomy decompensation. The importance of this finding is that these measurements may help to anticipate posthepatectomy decompensation and may possibly be used to direct alternative treatments to resection. © 2020 Elsevier Inc

Proposed nomenclature for Pseudallescheria, Scedosporium and related genera

As a result of fundamental changes in the International Code of Nomenclature on the use of separate names for sexual and asexual stages of fungi, generic names of many groups should be reconsidered. Members of the ECMM/ISHAM working group on Pseudallescheria/Scedosporium infections herein advocate a novel nomenclature for genera and species in Pseudallescheria, Scedosporium and allied taxa. The generic names Parascedosporium, Lomentospora, Petriella, Petriellopsis, and Scedosporium are proposed for a lineage within Microascaceae with mostly Scedosporium anamorphs producing slimy, annellidic conidia. Considering that Scedosporium has priority over Pseudallescheria and that Scedosporium prolificans is phylogenetically distinct from the other Scedosporium species, some name changes are proposed. Pseudallescheria minutispora and Petriellidium desertorum are renamed as Scedosporium minutisporum and S. desertorum, respectively. Scedosporium prolificans is renamed as Lomentospora prolificans. © 2014, Mushroom Research Foundation