An Examination of Conductors’ Leadership Skills

Through my experiences as a member of various large orchestral ensembles, I have been intrigued by how diverse my musical experiences were with different conductors. Some of these experiences have been thoroughly inspiring; I felt compelled to achieve higher levels of performance and convinced that I was a crucial part of creating something much larger than the notes on the page. Other experiences have been less musically fulfilling for me; I became disinterested and bored and felt little affective connection with the music. Reflecting on these different personal responses, I realized that the conductors in these experiences, in part, influenced such reactions. I trusted and admired these conductors for their confidence, musicality, and ability to lead a large group of people. In essence, these musical leaders possessed various leadership skills that contributed to their success, effectiveness, and appeal as conductors in my eyes. First, the successful conductors in my past experiences all possessed excellent musicianship in offering meaningful and powerful interpretations of the music and demonstrating complete knowledge of the score and its background. Second, these effective conductors maintained a sense of energy and momentum throughout their rehearsals that allowed me to stay focused and interested in music-making. They also presented musical concepts and ideas in ways that increased my understanding of the music. Lastly, I realized that these conductors’ verbal comments provided me with specific feedback and understandable instructions on how to improve my performance. These conductors were futher able to depict their musical interpretations through conducting gestures, facial expressions, and physical demeanors. Therefore, I identified musicianship, organization, and instructional strategies—both verbal and nonverbal—as three significant leadership skills that has improved the quality of my orchestral experiences. Reflections on my own experiences as a member of orchestral ensembles fueled my interest in honing my work as a developing conductor through an exploration of these three leadership skills. I am fully aware that the successes of the conductors in my past experiences also were attributed to other leadership skills. However, in this project, I sought an opportunity, as a developing conductor, to examine and self-reflect on these three specific leadership skills in order to generate my own style as a musician and leader. The purpose of this project was to examine how conductors’ leadership skills—musicianship, organization, and instructional strategies—impact the musical development of my project’s orchestral ensemble. This project involved my conducting of a volunteer, collegiate orchestra that I recruited. I conducted this orchestra for five rehearsals and a concert performance at my graduate recital. A crucial part of this project included my personal reflections on my leadership skills and their effects on the musical development of the orchestra I rehearsed

Search for eccentric black hole coalescences during the third observing run of LIGO and Virgo

Despite the growing number of confident binary black hole coalescences observed through gravitational waves so far, the astrophysical origin of these binaries remains uncertain. Orbital eccentricity is one of the clearest tracers of binary formation channels. Identifying binary eccentricity, however, remains challenging due to the limited availability of gravitational waveforms that include effects of eccentricity. Here, we present observational results for a waveform-independent search sensitive to eccentric black hole coalescences, covering the third observing run (O3) of the LIGO and Virgo detectors. We identified no new high-significance candidates beyond those that were already identified with searches focusing on quasi-circular binaries. We determine the sensitivity of our search to high-mass (total mass M>70 M⊙) binaries covering eccentricities up to 0.3 at 15 Hz orbital frequency, and use this to compare model predictions to search results. Assuming all detections are indeed quasi-circular, for our fiducial population model, we place an upper limit for the merger rate density of high-mass binaries with eccentricities 0<e≤0.3 at 0.33 Gpc−3 yr−1 at 90\% confidence level

Global burden of 288 causes of death and life expectancy decomposition in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990–2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND Regular, detailed reporting on population health by underlying cause of death is fundamental for public health decision making. Cause-specific estimates of mortality and the subsequent effects on life expectancy worldwide are valuable metrics to gauge progress in reducing mortality rates. These estimates are particularly important following large-scale mortality spikes, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. When systematically analysed, mortality rates and life expectancy allow comparisons of the consequences of causes of death globally and over time, providing a nuanced understanding of the effect of these causes on global populations. METHODS The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 cause-of-death analysis estimated mortality and years of life lost (YLLs) from 288 causes of death by age-sex-location-year in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations for each year from 1990 until 2021. The analysis used 56 604 data sources, including data from vital registration and verbal autopsy as well as surveys, censuses, surveillance systems, and cancer registries, among others. As with previous GBD rounds, cause-specific death rates for most causes were estimated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model-a modelling tool developed for GBD to assess the out-of-sample predictive validity of different statistical models and covariate permutations and combine those results to produce cause-specific mortality estimates-with alternative strategies adapted to model causes with insufficient data, substantial changes in reporting over the study period, or unusual epidemiology. YLLs were computed as the product of the number of deaths for each cause-age-sex-location-year and the standard life expectancy at each age. As part of the modelling process, uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated using the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles from a 1000-draw distribution for each metric. We decomposed life expectancy by cause of death, location, and year to show cause-specific effects on life expectancy from 1990 to 2021. We also used the coefficient of variation and the fraction of population affected by 90% of deaths to highlight concentrations of mortality. Findings are reported in counts and age-standardised rates. Methodological improvements for cause-of-death estimates in GBD 2021 include the expansion of under-5-years age group to include four new age groups, enhanced methods to account for stochastic variation of sparse data, and the inclusion of COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality-which includes excess mortality associated with the pandemic, excluding COVID-19, lower respiratory infections, measles, malaria, and pertussis. For this analysis, 199 new country-years of vital registration cause-of-death data, 5 country-years of surveillance data, 21 country-years of verbal autopsy data, and 94 country-years of other data types were added to those used in previous GBD rounds. FINDINGS The leading causes of age-standardised deaths globally were the same in 2019 as they were in 1990; in descending order, these were, ischaemic heart disease, stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and lower respiratory infections. In 2021, however, COVID-19 replaced stroke as the second-leading age-standardised cause of death, with 94·0 deaths (95% UI 89·2-100·0) per 100 000 population. The COVID-19 pandemic shifted the rankings of the leading five causes, lowering stroke to the third-leading and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease to the fourth-leading position. In 2021, the highest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 occurred in sub-Saharan Africa (271·0 deaths [250·1-290·7] per 100 000 population) and Latin America and the Caribbean (195·4 deaths [182·1-211·4] per 100 000 population). The lowest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 were in the high-income super-region (48·1 deaths [47·4-48·8] per 100 000 population) and southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania (23·2 deaths [16·3-37·2] per 100 000 population). Globally, life expectancy steadily improved between 1990 and 2019 for 18 of the 22 investigated causes. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the positive effect that reductions in deaths from enteric infections, lower respiratory infections, stroke, and neonatal deaths, among others have contributed to improved survival over the study period. However, a net reduction of 1·6 years occurred in global life expectancy between 2019 and 2021, primarily due to increased death rates from COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality. Life expectancy was highly variable between super-regions over the study period, with southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania gaining 8·3 years (6·7-9·9) overall, while having the smallest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 (0·4 years). The largest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 occurred in Latin America and the Caribbean (3·6 years). Additionally, 53 of the 288 causes of death were highly concentrated in locations with less than 50% of the global population as of 2021, and these causes of death became progressively more concentrated since 1990, when only 44 causes showed this pattern. The concentration phenomenon is discussed heuristically with respect to enteric and lower respiratory infections, malaria, HIV/AIDS, neonatal disorders, tuberculosis, and measles. INTERPRETATION Long-standing gains in life expectancy and reductions in many of the leading causes of death have been disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic, the adverse effects of which were spread unevenly among populations. Despite the pandemic, there has been continued progress in combatting several notable causes of death, leading to improved global life expectancy over the study period. Each of the seven GBD super-regions showed an overall improvement from 1990 and 2021, obscuring the negative effect in the years of the pandemic. Additionally, our findings regarding regional variation in causes of death driving increases in life expectancy hold clear policy utility. Analyses of shifting mortality trends reveal that several causes, once widespread globally, are now increasingly concentrated geographically. These changes in mortality concentration, alongside further investigation of changing risks, interventions, and relevant policy, present an important opportunity to deepen our understanding of mortality-reduction strategies. Examining patterns in mortality concentration might reveal areas where successful public health interventions have been implemented. Translating these successes to locations where certain causes of death remain entrenched can inform policies that work to improve life expectancy for people everywhere. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

An examination of conductors’ leadership skills

Through my experiences as a member of various large orchestral ensembles, I have been intrigued by how diverse my musical experiences were with different conductors. Some of these experiences have been thoroughly inspiring; I felt compelled to achieve higher levels of performance and convinced that I was a crucial part of creating something much larger than the notes on the page. Other experiences have been less musically fulfilling for me; I became disinterested and bored and felt little affective connection with the music. Reflecting on these different personal responses, I realized that the conductors in these experiences, in part, influenced such reactions. I trusted and admired these conductors for their confidence, musicality, and ability to lead a large group of people. In essence, these musical leaders possessed various leadership skills that contributed to their success, effectiveness, and appeal as conductors in my eyes. First, the successful conductors in my past experiences all possessed excellent musicianship in offering meaningful and powerful interpretations of the music and demonstrating complete knowledge of the score and its background. Second, these effective conductors maintained a sense of energy and momentum throughout their rehearsals that allowed me to stay focused and interested in music-making. They also presented musical concepts and ideas in ways that increased my understanding of the music. Lastly, I realized that these conductors’ verbal comments provided me with specific feedback and understandable instructions on how to improve my performance. These conductors were futher able to depict their musical interpretations through conducting gestures, facial expressions, and physical demeanors. Therefore, I identified musicianship, organization, and instructional strategies—both verbal and nonverbal—as three significant leadership skills that has improved the quality of my orchestral experiences. Reflections on my own experiences as a member of orchestral ensembles fueled my interest in honing my work as a developing conductor through an exploration of these three leadership skills. I am fully aware that the successes of the conductors in my past experiences also were attributed to other leadership skills. However, in this project, I sought an opportunity, as a developing conductor, to examine and self-reflect on these three specific leadership skills in order to generate my own style as a musician and leader. The purpose of this project was to examine how conductors’ leadership skills—musicianship, organization, and instructional strategies—impact the musical development of my project’s orchestral ensemble. This project involved my conducting of a volunteer, collegiate orchestra that I recruited. I conducted this orchestra for five rehearsals and a concert performance at my graduate recital. A crucial part of this project included my personal reflections on my leadership skills and their effects on the musical development of the orchestra I rehearsed

The Cost-effectiveness of Screening for Chronic Hepatitis B Infection in the United States

Current CDC/USPHS screening threshold of 2% for prevalence of chronic HBV is “costeffective.” Screening US adults in lower prevalence populations (eg, as low as 0.3%) also is likely to be cost-effective, suggesting that current health policy should be reconsidered