The Future of Nuclear Energy: Facts and Fiction: An update using 2009/2010 Data

An update of our 2009 study, "The Future of Nuclear Energy, Facts and Fiction" using the 2009 and the available 2010 data, including a critical look at the just published 2009 edition of the Red Book, is presented. Since January 2009, eight reactors with a capacity of 4.9 GWe have been connected to the electric grid and four older reactors, with a combined capacity of 2.64 GWe have been terminated. Furthermore, 27 reactor constructions, dominated by China (18) and Russia (4), have been initiated. The nuclear fission produced electric energy in 2009 followed the slow decline, observed since 2007, with a total production of 2560 TWhe, 41 TWhe (1.6%) less than in 2008 and roughly 100 TWhe less than in the record year 2006. The preliminary data from the first 10 months of 2010 in the OECD countries indicate that nuclear power production in North-America remained at the 2009 levels, while one observes a recovery in Europe with an increase of 2.5% and a strong rise of 5% in the OECD Asia-Pacific area compared to the same period in 2009. Worldwide uranium mining has increased during 2009 by about 7000 tons to almost 51000 tons. Still roughly 18000 tons of the 2010 world uranium requirements need to be provided from the civilian and military reserves. Perhaps the most remarkable new data from the just published 2009 edition of the Red Book, are that (1) the best understood RAR (reasonable assured) and IR (inferred) resources, with a price tag of less than 40 US dollars/Kg, have been inconsistently absorbed in the two to three times higher price categories and (2) uranium mining in Kazakhstan is presented with a short lifetime. The presented mining capacity numbers indicate an uranium extraction peak of 28000 tons during the years 2015-2020, from which it will decline quickly to 14000 tons by 2025 and to only 5000-6000 tons by 2035.Comment: 29 pages including 3 pages of reference

The End of Cheap Uranium

Historic data from many countries demonstrate that on average no more than 50-70% of the uranium in a deposit could be mined. An analysis of more recent data from Canada and Australia leads to a mining model with an average deposit extraction lifetime of 10+- 2 years. This simple model provides an accurate description of the extractable amount of uranium for the recent mining operations. Using this model for all larger existing and planned uranium mines up to 2030, a global uranium mining peak of at most 58 +- 4 ktons around the year 2015 is obtained. Thereafter we predict that uranium mine production will decline to at most 54 +- 5 ktons by 2025 and, with the decline steepening, to at most 41 +- 5 ktons around 2030. This amount will not be sufficient to fuel the existing and planned nuclear power plants during the next 10-20 years. In fact, we find that it will be difficult to avoid supply shortages even under a slow 1%/year worldwide nuclear energy phase-out scenario up to 2025. We thus suggest that a worldwide nuclear energy phase-out is in order. If such a slow global phase-out is not voluntarily effected, the end of the present cheap uranium supply situation will be unavoidable. The result will be that some countries will simply be unable to afford sufficient uranium fuel at that point, which implies involuntary and perhaps chaotic nuclear phase-outs in those countries involving brownouts, blackouts, and worse.Comment: 13 pages, extended version of the contributed paper to the World Resource Forum 2011 in Davo

Neutral Current Interference in the TeV Region; the Experimental Sensitivity at the LHC

The possibilities to measure lepton forward--backward asymmetries at the LHC in the reaction pp(qqbar) --> l+l- are studied for dilepton events with masses above 400 GeV. It is shown that such measurements allow accurate tests of the neutral current interference structure up to about 2 TeV center of mass energies. The sensitivity of asymmetries at the LHC to new physics is demonstrated within the context of quark compositeness and exotic Z' scenarios.Comment: latex, 11 pages 4 figure