History of climate modeling

The history of climate modeling begins with conceptual models, followed in the 19th century by mathematical models of energy balance and radiative transfer, as well as simple analog models. Since the 1950s, the principal tools of climate science have been computer simulation models of the global general circulation. From the 1990s to the present, a trend toward increasingly comprehensive coupled models of the entire climate system has dominated the field. Climate model evaluation and intercomparison is changing modeling into a more standardized, modular process, presenting the potential for unifying research and operational aspects of climate science. WIREs Clim Change 2011 2 128–139 DOI: 10.1002/wcc.95 For further resources related to this article, please visit the WIREs websitePeer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/79438/1/95_ftp.pd

The association between environmental exposures during childhood and the subsequent development of Crohn's Disease: A score analysis approach

Background Environmental factors during childhood are thought to play a role in the aetiology of Crohn's Disease (CD). In South Africa, recently published work based on an investigation of 14 childhood environmental exposures during 3 age intervals (0-5, 6-10 and 11-18 years) has provided insight into the role of timing of exposure in the future development of CD. The 'overlapping' contribution of the investigated variables however, remains unclear. The aim of this study was to perform a post hoc analysis using this data and investigate the extent to which each variable contributes to the subsequent development of CD relative to each aforementioned age interval, based on a score analysis approach. Methods Three methods were used for the score analysis. Two methods employed the subgrouping of one or more (similar) variables (methods A and B), with each subgroup assigned a score value weighting equal to one. For comparison, the third approach (method 0) involved no grouping of the 14 variables. Thus, each variable held a score value of one. Results Results of the score analysis (Method 0) for the environmental exposures during 3 age intervals (0-5, 6-10 and 11-18 years) revealed no significant difference between the case and control groups. By contrast, results from Method A and Method B revealed a significant difference during all 3 age intervals between the case and control groups, with cases having significantly lower exposure scores (approximately 30% and 40% lower, respectively). Conclusion Results from the score analysis provide insight into the 'compound' effects from multiple environmental exposures in the aetiology of CD.IS

Presence of intestinal Mycobacterium avium subspecies paratuberculosis (MAP) DNA is not associated with altered MMP expression in ulcerative colitis

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p><it>Mycobacterium avium </it>subspecies <it>paratuberculosis </it>(MAP) is suspected to be a causative agent in human Crohn's disease (CD). Recent evidence suggests that pathogenic mycobacteria and MAP can induce the expression of Matrix Metalloproteinases (MMP), which are the main proteases in the pathogenesis of mucosal ulcerations in inflammatory bowel disease (IBD). Within this study we assessed the prevalence of intestinal MAP specific DNA in patients with Crohn's disease, ulcerative colitis (UC), and healthy controls. We further analysed regulation patterns of MMPs in mucosal tissues of UC patients with and without intestinal MAP DNA detection.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Colonic biopsy samples were obtained from 63 Norwegian and German IBD patients and 21 healthy controls. RNA was quantified by quantitative real-time polymerase chain reaction (PCR) to study MMP gene expression in both pathological and healthy mucosal specimens. The presence of MAP DNA in colonic mucosa was examined using MAP specific PCR.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>MAP DNA was detected in 20% of UC patients and 33% of healthy controls but only in 7% of patients with CD. UC patients treated with corticosteroids exhibited a significantly increased frequency of intestinal MAP DNA compared to those not receiving corticosteroids. Expression of MMP-1, -2, -7, -9, -13, -19, -28 and TNF-α did not differ between UC patients with presence of intestinal MAP DNA compared to those without. MMP-2, MMP-9 and MMP-13 were significantly decreased in UC patients receiving corticosteroids.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>The presence of intestinal MAP specific DNA is not associated with altered MMP expression in UC <it>in vivo</it>. Corticosteroids are associated with increased detection of intestinal MAP DNA and decreased expression of certain MMPs. Frequent detection of MAP DNA in healthy controls might be attributable to the wide environmental distribution of MAP and its presence in the food-chain.</p

Systematic Identification of Genes that Regulate Neuronal Wiring in the Drosophila Visual System

Forward genetic screens in model organisms are an attractive means to identify those genes involved in any complex biological process, including neural circuit assembly. Although mutagenesis screens are readily performed to saturation, gene identification rarely is, being limited by the considerable effort generally required for positional cloning. Here, we apply a systematic positional cloning strategy to identify many of the genes required for neuronal wiring in the Drosophila visual system. From a large-scale forward genetic screen selecting for visual system wiring defects with a normal retinal pattern, we recovered 122 mutations in 42 genetic loci. For 6 of these loci, the underlying genetic lesions were previously identified using traditional methods. Using SNP-based mapping approaches, we have now identified 30 additional genes. Neuronal phenotypes have not previously been reported for 20 of these genes, and no mutant phenotype has been previously described for 5 genes. The genes encode a variety of proteins implicated in cellular processes such as gene regulation, cytoskeletal dynamics, axonal transport, and cell signalling. We conducted a comprehensive phenotypic analysis of 35 genes, scoring wiring defects according to 33 criteria. This work demonstrates the feasibility of combining large-scale gene identification with large-scale mutagenesis in Drosophila, and provides a comprehensive overview of the molecular mechanisms that regulate visual system wiring

Multi-messenger observations of a binary neutron star merger

On 2017 August 17 a binary neutron star coalescence candidate (later designated GW170817) with merger time 12:41:04 UTC was observed through gravitational waves by the Advanced LIGO and Advanced Virgo detectors. The Fermi Gamma-ray Burst Monitor independently detected a gamma-ray burst (GRB 170817A) with a time delay of ~1.7 s with respect to the merger time. From the gravitational-wave signal, the source was initially localized to a sky region of 31 deg2 at a luminosity distance of 40+8-8 Mpc and with component masses consistent with neutron stars. The component masses were later measured to be in the range 0.86 to 2.26 Mo. An extensive observing campaign was launched across the electromagnetic spectrum leading to the discovery of a bright optical transient (SSS17a, now with the IAU identification of AT 2017gfo) in NGC 4993 (at ~40 Mpc) less than 11 hours after the merger by the One- Meter, Two Hemisphere (1M2H) team using the 1 m Swope Telescope. The optical transient was independently detected by multiple teams within an hour. Subsequent observations targeted the object and its environment. Early ultraviolet observations revealed a blue transient that faded within 48 hours. Optical and infrared observations showed a redward evolution over ~10 days. Following early non-detections, X-ray and radio emission were discovered at the transient’s position ~9 and ~16 days, respectively, after the merger. Both the X-ray and radio emission likely arise from a physical process that is distinct from the one that generates the UV/optical/near-infrared emission. No ultra-high-energy gamma-rays and no neutrino candidates consistent with the source were found in follow-up searches. These observations support the hypothesis that GW170817 was produced by the merger of two neutron stars in NGC4993 followed by a short gamma-ray burst (GRB 170817A) and a kilonova/macronova powered by the radioactive decay of r-process nuclei synthesized in the ejecta

Search for gravitational waves from Scorpius X-1 in the second Advanced LIGO observing run with an improved hidden Markov model

We present results from a semicoherent search for continuous gravitational waves from the low-mass x-ray binary Scorpius X-1, using a hidden Markov model (HMM) to track spin wandering. This search improves on previous HMM-based searches of LIGO data by using an improved frequency domain matched filter, the J-statistic, and by analyzing data from Advanced LIGO's second observing run. In the frequency range searched, from 60 to 650 Hz, we find no evidence of gravitational radiation. At 194.6 Hz, the most sensitive search frequency, we report an upper limit on gravitational wave strain (at 95% confidence) of h095%=3.47×10-25 when marginalizing over source inclination angle. This is the most sensitive search for Scorpius X-1, to date, that is specifically designed to be robust in the presence of spin wandering. © 2019 American Physical Society

Search for gravitational waves from Scorpius X-1 in the second Advanced LIGO observing run with an improved hidden Markov model

We present results from a semicoherent search for continuous gravitational waves from the low-mass x-ray binary Scorpius X-1, using a hidden Markov model (HMM) to track spin wandering. This search improves on previous HMM-based searches of LIGO data by using an improved frequency domain matched filter, the J-statistic, and by analyzing data from Advanced LIGO’s second observing run. In the frequency range searched, from 60 to 650 Hz, we find no evidence of gravitational radiation. At 194.6 Hz, the most sensitive search frequency, we report an upper limit on gravitational wave strain (at 95% confidence) of h95%0=3.47×10−25 when marginalizing over source inclination angle. This is the most sensitive search for Scorpius X-1, to date, that is specifically designed to be robust in the presence of spin wandering

Gravitational Waves and Gamma-Rays from a Binary Neutron Star Merger: GW170817 and GRB 170817A

On 2017 August 17, the gravitational-wave event GW170817 was observed by the Advanced LIGO and Virgo detectors, and the gamma-ray burst (GRB) GRB 170817A was observed independently by the Fermi Gamma-ray Burst Monitor, and the Anti-Coincidence Shield for the Spectrometer for the International Gamma-Ray Astrophysics Laboratory. The probability of the near-simultaneous temporal and spatial observation of GRB 170817A and GW170817 occurring by chance is $5.0\times {10}^{-8}$. We therefore confirm binary neutron star mergers as a progenitor of short GRBs. The association of GW170817 and GRB 170817A provides new insight into fundamental physics and the origin of short GRBs. We use the observed time delay of $(+1.74\pm 0.05)\,{\rm{s}}$ between GRB 170817A and GW170817 to: (i) constrain the difference between the speed of gravity and the speed of light to be between $-3\times {10}^{-15}$ and $+7\times {10}^{-16}$ times the speed of light, (ii) place new bounds on the violation of Lorentz invariance, (iii) present a new test of the equivalence principle by constraining the Shapiro delay between gravitational and electromagnetic radiation. We also use the time delay to constrain the size and bulk Lorentz factor of the region emitting the gamma-rays. GRB 170817A is the closest short GRB with a known distance, but is between 2 and 6 orders of magnitude less energetic than other bursts with measured redshift. A new generation of gamma-ray detectors, and subthreshold searches in existing detectors, will be essential to detect similar short bursts at greater distances. Finally, we predict a joint detection rate for the Fermi Gamma-ray Burst Monitor and the Advanced LIGO and Virgo detectors of 0.1-1.4 per year during the 2018-2019 observing run and 0.3-1.7 per year at design sensitivity

Prospects for Observing and Localizing Gravitational-Wave Transients with Advanced LIGO and Advanced Virgo.

We present a possible observing scenario for the Advanced LIGO and Advanced Virgo gravitational-wave detectors over the next decade, with the intention of providing information to the astronomy community to facilitate planning for multi-messenger astronomy with gravitational waves. We determine the expected sensitivity of the network to transient gravitational-wave signals, and study the capability of the network to determine the sky location of the source. We report our findings for gravitational-wave transients, with particular focus on gravitational-wave signals from the inspiral of binary neutron-star systems, which are considered the most promising for multi-messenger astronomy. The ability to localize the sources of the detected signals depends on the geographical distribution of the detectors and their relative sensitivity, and 90% credible regions can be as large as thousands of square degrees when only two sensitive detectors are operational. Determining the sky position of a significant fraction of detected signals to areas of 5 deg2 to 20 deg2 will require at least three detectors of sensitivity within a factor of ∼ 2 of each other and with a broad frequency bandwidth. Should the third LIGO detector be relocated to India as expected, a significant fraction of gravitational-wave signals will be localized to a few square degrees by gravitational-wave observations alone