Evidência de infecção por Leishmania (Leishmania) infantum em cães de Juiz de Fora, Minas Gerais, Brasil, detectada pelo teste imunocromatográfico rápido DPP e PCR

In Brazil, domestic dogs are branded as the primary reservoir for zoonotic visceral leishmaniasis, due to the clear positive correlation observed between human and canine infection rates. This study aimed to carry out a serological survey of canine visceral leishmaniasis (CVL) in dogs housed at a public kennel in the municipality of Juiz de Fora, Minas Gerais State, Brazil, using the immunochromatographic TR DPP® CVL rapid test. Additionally, conventional and/or real time PCR assay was used to detect and confirm L. infantum infection in the DPP positive dogs only. Of the 400 dogs studied, most did not present clinical signs for CVL (p ; 0.05). Both conventional and real time PCR tests confirmed L. infantum infection in nine (75.0%) of the twelve DPP seropositive dogs that remained alive during the follow-up period. This study is the first seroepidemiologic survey of CVL held in the city of Juiz de Fora, and the results reinforce the idea that this disease is currently in a process of expansion and urbanization in Brazil. Furthermore, this study highlights the use of the DPP test as an alternative for diagnosing CVL in large and mid-sized cities, due to its ease of implementation.No Brasil, cães domésticos são considerados como os principais reservatórios da leishmaniose visceral zoonótica, devido à clara correlação positiva existente entre as curvas de infecção humana e canina. Este estudo objetivou a realização de um inquérito sorológico da leishmaniose visceral canina (LVC) em cães abrigados em um canil público de Juiz de Fora, Minas Gerais, Brasil, através do teste rápido imunocromatográfico TR DPP®. Adicionalmente, a PCR convencional e/ou em tempo real foi usada para detectar/confirmar a infecção por L. infantum apenas nos animais DPP positivos. Dos 400 cães estudados, a maioria não apresentou sinais clínicos para a LVC (p ; 0,05). PCR convencional e em tempo real confirmaram a infecção por L. infantum em nove (75,0%) dos doze animais DPP positivos que permaneceram vivos durante o estudo. Este é o primeiro estudo soroepidemiológico sobre LVC realizado no município de Juiz de Fora, e os resultados reforçam a idéia de que esta doença está em processo de expansão e urbanização no Brasil. Além disto, este estudo destaca o uso do DPP como uma alternativa para o diagnóstico da LVC em cidades de médio e grande porte, devido à facilidade de execução

Global, regional, and national under-5 mortality, adult mortality, age-specific mortality, and life expectancy, 1970–2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016

BACKGROUND: Detailed assessments of mortality patterns, particularly age-specific mortality, represent a crucial input that enables health systems to target interventions to specific populations. Understanding how all-cause mortality has changed with respect to development status can identify exemplars for best practice. To accomplish this, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016) estimated age-specific and sex-specific all-cause mortality between 1970 and 2016 for 195 countries and territories and at the subnational level for the five countries with a population greater than 200 million in 2016. METHODS: We have evaluated how well civil registration systems captured deaths using a set of demographic methods called death distribution methods for adults and from consideration of survey and census data for children younger than 5 years. We generated an overall assessment of completeness of registration of deaths by dividing registered deaths in each location-year by our estimate of all-age deaths generated from our overall estimation process. For 163 locations, including subnational units in countries with a population greater than 200 million with complete vital registration (VR) systems, our estimates were largely driven by the observed data, with corrections for small fluctuations in numbers and estimation for recent years where there were lags in data reporting (lags were variable by location, generally between 1 year and 6 years). For other locations, we took advantage of different data sources available to measure under-5 mortality rates (U5MR) using complete birth histories, summary birth histories, and incomplete VR with adjustments; we measured adult mortality rate (the probability of death in individuals aged 15-60 years) using adjusted incomplete VR, sibling histories, and household death recall. We used the U5MR and adult mortality rate, together with crude death rate due to HIV in the GBD model life table system, to estimate age-specific and sex-specific death rates for each location-year. Using various international databases, we identified fatal discontinuities, which we defined as increases in the death rate of more than one death per million, resulting from conflict and terrorism, natural disasters, major transport or technological accidents, and a subset of epidemic infectious diseases; these were added to estimates in the relevant years. In 47 countries with an identified peak adult prevalence for HIV/AIDS of more than 0·5% and where VR systems were less than 65% complete, we informed our estimates of age-sex-specific mortality using the Estimation and Projection Package (EPP)-Spectrum model fitted to national HIV/AIDS prevalence surveys and antenatal clinic serosurveillance systems. We estimated stillbirths, early neonatal, late neonatal, and childhood mortality using both survey and VR data in spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression models. We estimated abridged life tables for all location-years using age-specific death rates. We grouped locations into development quintiles based on the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and analysed mortality trends by quintile. Using spline regression, we estimated the expected mortality rate for each age-sex group as a function of SDI. We identified countries with higher life expectancy than expected by comparing observed life expectancy to anticipated life expectancy on the basis of development status alone. FINDINGS: Completeness in the registration of deaths increased from 28% in 1970 to a peak of 45% in 2013; completeness was lower after 2013 because of lags in reporting. Total deaths in children younger than 5 years decreased from 1970 to 2016, and slower decreases occurred at ages 5-24 years. By contrast, numbers of adult deaths increased in each 5-year age bracket above the age of 25 years. The distribution of annualised rates of change in age-specific mortality rate differed over the period 2000 to 2016 compared with earlier decades: increasing annualised rates of change were less frequent, although rising annualised rates of change still occurred in some locations, particularly for adolescent and younger adult age groups. Rates of stillbirths and under-5 mortality both decreased globally from 1970. Evidence for global convergence of death rates was mixed; although the absolute difference between age-standardised death rates narrowed between countries at the lowest and highest levels of SDI, the ratio of these death rates-a measure of relative inequality-increased slightly. There was a strong shift between 1970 and 2016 toward higher life expectancy, most noticeably at higher levels of SDI. Among countries with populations greater than 1 million in 2016, life expectancy at birth was highest for women in Japan, at 86·9 years (95% UI 86·7-87·2), and for men in Singapore, at 81·3 years (78·8-83·7) in 2016. Male life expectancy was generally lower than female life expectancy between 1970 and 2016, an

Global, regional, and national life expectancy, all-cause mortality, and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes of death, 1980-2015 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

Background Improving survival and extending the longevity of life for all populations requires timely, robust evidence on local mortality levels and trends. The Global Burden of Disease 2015 Study (GBD 2015) provides a comprehensive assessment of all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2015. These results informed an in-depth investigation of observed and expected mortality patterns based on sociodemographic measures. Methods We estimated all-cause mortality by age, sex, geography, and year using an improved analytical approach originally developed for GBD 2013 and GBD 2010. Improvements included refinements to the estimation of child and adult mortality and corresponding uncertainty, parameter selection for under-5 mortality synthesis by spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression, and sibling history data processing. We also expanded the database of vital registration, survey, and census data to 14 294 geography-year datapoints. For GBD 2015, eight causes, including Ebola virus disease, were added to the previous GBD cause list for mortality. We used six modelling approaches to assess cause-specific mortality, with the Cause of Death Ensemble Model (CODEm) generating estimates for most causes. We used a series of novel analyses to systematically quantify the drivers of trends in mortality across geographies. First, we assessed observed and expected levels and trends of cause-specific mortality as they relate to the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary indicator derived from measures of income per capita, educational attainment, and fertility. Second, we examined factors affecting total mortality patterns through a series of counterfactual scenarios, testing the magnitude by which population growth, population age structures, and epidemiological changes contributed to shifts in mortality. Finally, we attributed changes in life expectancy to changes in cause of death. We documented each step of the GBD 2015 estimation processes, as well as data sources, in accordance with Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting (GATHER). Findings Globally, life expectancy from birth increased from 61.7 years (95% uncertainty interval 61.4-61.9) in 1980 to 71.8 years (71.5-72.2) in 2015. Several countries in sub-Saharan Africa had very large gains in life expectancy from 2005 to 2015, rebounding from an era of exceedingly high loss of life due to HIV/AIDS. At the same time, many geographies saw life expectancy stagnate or decline, particularly for men and in countries with rising mortality from war or interpersonal violence. From 2005 to 2015, male life expectancy in Syria dropped by 11.3 years (3.7-17.4), to 62.6 years (56.5-70.2). Total deaths increased by 4.1% (2.6-5.6) from 2005 to 2015, rising to 55.8 million (54.9 million to 56.6 million) in 2015, but age-standardised death rates fell by 17.0% (15.8-18.1) during this time, underscoring changes in population growth and shifts in global age structures. The result was similar for non-communicable diseases (NCDs), with total deaths from these causes increasing by 14.1% (12.6-16.0) to 39.8 million (39.2 million to 40.5 million) in 2015, whereas age-standardised rates decreased by 13.1% (11.9-14.3). Globally, this mortality pattern emerged for several NCDs, including several types of cancer, ischaemic heart disease, cirrhosis, and Alzheimer's disease and other dementias. By contrast, both total deaths and age-standardised death rates due to communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional conditions significantly declined from 2005 to 2015, gains largely attributable to decreases in mortality rates due to HIV/AIDS (42.1%, 39.1-44.6), malaria (43.1%, 34.7-51.8), neonatal preterm birth complications (29.8%, 24.8-34.9), and maternal disorders (29.1%, 19.3-37.1). Progress was slower for several causes, such as lower respiratory infections and nutritional deficiencies, whereas deaths increased for others, including dengue and drug use disorders. Age-standardised death rates due to injuries significantly declined from 2005 to 2015, yet interpersonal violence and war claimed increasingly more lives in some regions, particularly in the Middle East. In 2015, rotaviral enteritis (rotavirus) was the leading cause of under-5 deaths due to diarrhoea (146 000 deaths, 118 000-183 000) and pneumococcal pneumonia was the leading cause of under-5 deaths due to lower respiratory infections (393 000 deaths, 228 000-532 000), although pathogen-specific mortality varied by region. Globally, the effects of population growth, ageing, and changes in age-standardised death rates substantially differed by cause. Our analyses on the expected associations between cause-specific mortality and SDI show the regular shifts in cause of death composition and population age structure with rising SDI. Country patterns of premature mortality (measured as years of life lost [YLLs]) and how they differ from the level expected on the basis of SDI alone revealed distinct but highly heterogeneous patterns by region and country or territory. Ischaemic heart disease, stroke, and diabetes were among the leading causes of YLLs in most regions, but in many cases, intraregional results sharply diverged for ratios of observed and expected YLLs based on SDI. Communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases caused the most YLLs throughout sub-Saharan Africa, with observed YLLs far exceeding expected YLLs for countries in which malaria or HIV/AIDS remained the leading causes of early death. Interpretation At the global scale, age-specific mortality has steadily improved over the past 35 years; this pattern of general progress continued in the past decade. Progress has been faster in most countries than expected on the basis of development measured by the SDI. Against this background of progress, some countries have seen falls in life expectancy, and age-standardised death rates for some causes are increasing. Despite progress in reducing age-standardised death rates, population growth and ageing mean that the number of deaths from most non-communicable causes are increasing in most countries, putting increased demands on health systems. Copyright (C) The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.Peer reviewe

Ecologia de viroses emergentes: relações entre pequenos mamíferos hospedeiros e seus habitat

Exportado OPUSMade available in DSpace on 2019-08-14T20:10:23Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 disserta__osamantha2016final.pdf: 1669549 bytes, checksum: 241a5fca34d73f7f180d01f455604ba9 (MD5) Previous issue date: 30As atividades antrópicas degradam o habitat e formam uma paisagem com fragmentos imersos em uma matriz de pasto e agricultura. A matriz funciona como um filtro o qual algumas espécies tem capacidade de cruzar e outras não. Essa alteração ambiental pode gerar modificações distintas na estrutura de comunidade de pequenos mamíferos. Portanto, o objetivo deste trabalho é investigar as alterações na estrutura e composição da comunidade de pequenos mamíferos em três ambientes com diferentes alterações ambientais. As capturas ocorreram entre setembro de 2012 e setembro 2013, nos municípios de Rio Pomba e Serro, em Minas Gerais. Capturamos os pequenos mamíferos em três ambientes distintos: em fragmentos de vegetação nativa; em áreas de pastagem próximas às áreas de vegetação; e nas áreas peridomiciliares. Na mata e pasto foram estabelecidos quatro transectos e dois no peridomicílio. Em cada ponto foi colocada armadilha do tipo gaiola e uma Sherman e utilizado o método de captura-marcação-recaptura. Em Rio Pomba foram capturados 163 espécimes pertencentes à 13 espécies e no Serro 45 espécimes distribuídos em 14 espécies. A abundância foi maior no pasto de Rio Pomba, sendo que mata e peridomicílio não diferiram. Já a riqueza de espécies não foi diferente entre mata e pasto neste município. No Serro não houve diferença significativa na abundância e riqueza de espécies entre os ambientes. Apesar disso, a estrutura da comunidade foi influenciada pelos diferentes ambientes, sendo que pasto e mata diferiram nos dois municípios. As comunidades de pequenos mamíferos foram compostas, predominantemente, por espécies florestais e típicas de Mata Atlântica no ambiente de mata e no pasto por espécies generalistas que ocorrem geralmente em áreas abertas ou perturbadas. O peridomicílio foi composto por espécies generalistas e adaptadas ao ambiente antropizado, além de espécies exóticas que vivem próximo ao homem. Apesar de termos encontrados espécies restritas às áreas de mata nativa, percebemos que algumas tem uma distribuição mais ampla e circulam entre todos os ambientes. Nestes casos a matriz não limita o movimento e, dependendo da sua biologia, algumas espécies podem se beneficiar das alterações ambientais

EVIDENCE OF Leishmania (Leishmania) infantum INFECTION IN DOGS FROM JUIZ DE FORA, MINAS GERAIS STATE, BRAZIL, BASED ON IMMUNOCHROMATOGRAPHIC DUAL-PATH PLATFORM (DPP®) AND PCR ASSAYS

In Brazil, domestic dogs are branded as the primary reservoir for zoonotic visceral leishmaniasis, due to the clear positive correlation observed between human and canine infection rates. This study aimed to carry out a serological survey of canine visceral leishmaniasis (CVL) in dogs housed at a public kennel in the municipality of Juiz de Fora, Minas Gerais State, Brazil, using the immunochromatographic TR DPP&#174; CVL rapid test. Additionally, conventional and/or real time PCR assay was used to detect and confirm L. infantum infection in the DPP positive dogs only. Of the 400 dogs studied, most did not present clinical signs for CVL (p < 0.05), and fifteen (3.8%) were seropositive in the DPP test. There was no statistically significant difference between the DPP seropositive dogs and the clinical signs of the disease (p > 0.05). Both conventional and real time PCR tests confirmed L. infantum infection in nine (75.0%) of the twelve DPP seropositive dogs that remained alive during the follow-up period. This study is the first seroepidemiologic survey of CVL held in the city of Juiz de Fora, and the results reinforce the idea that this disease is currently in a process of expansion and urbanization in Brazil. Furthermore, this study highlights the use of the DPP test as an alternative for diagnosing CVL in large and mid-sized cities, due to its ease of implementation

Investigação epidemiológica do calazar canino e de flebotomíneos no município de Juiz de Fora (MG) e prospecção de moléculas com potencial atividade leishmanicida

Universidade Federal de Juiz de Fora. Instituto de Ciências Biológicas. Departamento de Parasitologia, Microbiologia e Imunologia. Juiz de Fora, MG, Brasil.Secretaria Municipal de Saúde de Juiz de Fora. Departamento de Vigilância Epidemiológica e Ambiental. Setor de Zoonoses. Juiz de Fora, MG, Brasil / Universidade Federal de Juiz de Fora. Programa de Pós-Graduação em Saúde Brasileira. Juiz de Fora, MG, Brasil.Universidade Federal de Juiz de Fora. Instituto de Ciências Biológicas. Departamento de Parasitologia, Microbiologia e Imunologia. Juiz de Fora, MG, Brasil.Universidade Federal de Juiz de Fora. Instituto de Ciências Biológicas. Departamento de Parasitologia, Microbiologia e Imunologia. Juiz de Fora, MG, Brasil.Universidade Federal de Juiz de Fora. Instituto de Ciências Biológicas. Departamento de Parasitologia, Microbiologia e Imunologia. Juiz de Fora, MG, Brasil.Universidade Federal de Juiz de Fora. Instituto de Ciências Biológicas. Departamento de Parasitologia, Microbiologia e Imunologia. Juiz de Fora, MG, Brasil.Fundação Oswaldo Cruz. Instituto Oswaldo Cruz. Bio-Manguinhos. Laboratório de Pesquisa em Leishmaniose/Laboratório de Desenvolvimento de Positivos para Diagnóstico. Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brasil.Fundação Oswaldo Cruz. Instituto Oswaldo Cruz. Bio-Manguinhos. Laboratório de Pesquisa em Leishmaniose/Laboratório de Desenvolvimento de Positivos para Diagnóstico. Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brasil.Universidade Federal de Alfenas. Instituto de Ciências Médicas. Departamento de Patologia e Parasitologia. Laboratório de Parasitologia. Minas Gerais, MG, Brasil / Fundação Oswaldo Cruz. Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brasil.Universidade Federal de Alfenas. Instituto de Ciências Médicas. Departamento de Patologia e Parasitologia. Laboratório de Parasitologia. Minas Gerais, MG, Brasil / Fundação Oswaldo Cruz. Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brasil.Universidade Federal de Alfenas. Instituto de Ciências Médicas. Departamento de Patologia e Parasitologia. Laboratório de Parasitologia. Minas Gerais, MG, Brasil / Fundação Oswaldo Cruz. Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brasil.Embrapa Gado de Leite. Juiz de Fora, MG, Brasil.Superintendência Regional de Saúde. Núcleo de Vigilância Epidemiológica, Ambiental e Saúde do Trabalhador. Juiz de Fora, MG, Brasil / Secretaria de Estado da Saúde de Minas Gerais. Juiz de Fora, MG, Brasil.Superintendência Regional de Saúde. Núcleo de Vigilância Epidemiológica, Ambiental e Saúde do Trabalhador. Juiz de Fora, MG, Brasil / Secretaria de Estado da Saúde de Minas Gerais. Juiz de Fora, MG, Brasil.Superintendência Regional de Saúde. Núcleo de Vigilância Epidemiológica, Ambiental e Saúde do Trabalhador. Juiz de Fora, MG, Brasil / Secretaria de Estado da Saúde de Minas Gerais. Juiz de Fora, MG, Brasil.Embrapa Gado de Leite. Juiz de Fora, MG, Brasil.Superintendência Regional de Saúde. Núcleo de Vigilância Epidemiológica, Ambiental e Saúde do Trabalhador. Juiz de Fora, MG, Brasil / Secretaria de Estado da Saúde de Minas Gerais. Juiz de Fora, MG, Brasil.Superintendência Regional de Saúde. Núcleo de Vigilância Epidemiológica, Ambiental e Saúde do Trabalhador. Juiz de Fora, MG, Brasil / Secretaria de Estado da Saúde de Minas Gerais. Juiz de Fora, MG, Brasil.Ministério da Saúde. Secretaria de Vigilância em Saúde. Instituto Evandro Chagas. Laboratório de Geoprocessamento. Ananindeua, PA, Brasil.Ministério da Saúde. Fundação Oswaldo Cruz. Centro de Pesquisas René Rachou. Centro de Referência Nacional e Internacional para Flebotomíneos. Laboratório de Leishmanioses. Belo Horizonte, MG, BrasilUniversidade Federal de Juiz de Fora. Instituto de Ciências Exatas. Departamento de Química. Juiz de Fora, MG, Brasil.Universidade Federal de Juiz de Fora. Instituto de Ciências Exatas. Departamento de Química. Juiz de Fora, MG, BrasilUniversidade Federal de Juiz de Fora. Instituto de Ciências Biológicas. Departamento de Parasitologia, Microbiologia e Imunologia. Juiz de Fora, MG, Brasil.Universidade Federal de Juiz de Fora. Instituto de Ciências Biológicas. Departamento de Parasitologia, Microbiologia e Imunologia. Juiz de Fora, MG, Brasil.Universidade Federal de Juiz de Fora. Instituto de Ciências Biológicas. Departamento de Parasitologia, Microbiologia e Imunologia. Juiz de Fora, MG, Brasil

Global, regional, and national under-5 mortality, adult mortality, age-specific mortality, and life expectancy, 1970-2016 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016

Background Detailed assessments of mortality patterns, particularly age-specific mortality, represent a crucial input that enables health systems to target interventions to specific populations. Understanding how all-cause mortality has changed with respect to development status can identify exemplars for best practice. To accomplish this, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016) estimated age-specific and sex-specific all-cause mortality between 1970 and 2016 for 195 countries and territories and at the subnational level for the five countries with a population greater than 200 million in 2016. Methods We have evaluated how well civil registration systems captured deaths using a set of demographic methods called death distribution methods for adults and from consideration of survey and census data for children younger than 5 years. We generated an overall assessment of completeness of registration of deaths by dividing registered deaths in each location-year by our estimate of all-age deaths generated from our overall estimation process. For 163 locations, including subnational units in countries with a population greater than 200 million with complete vital registration (VR) systems, our estimates were largely driven by the observed data, with corrections for small fluctuations in numbers and estimation for recent years where there were lags in data reporting (lags were variable by location, generally between 1 year and 6 years). For other locations, we took advantage of different data sources available to measure under-5 mortality rates (U5MR) using complete birth histories, summary birth histories, and incomplete VR with adjustments; we measured adult mortality rate (the probability of death in individuals aged 15-60 years) using adjusted incomplete VR, sibling histories, and household death recall. We used the U5MR and adult mortality rate, together with crude death rate due to HIV in the GBD model life table system, to estimate age-specific and sex-specific death rates for each location-year. Using various international databases, we identified fatal discontinuities, which we defined as increases in the death rate of more than one death per million, resulting from conflict and terrorism, natural disasters, major transport or technological accidents, and a subset of epidemic infectious diseases; these were added to estimates in the relevant years. In 47 countries with an identified peak adult prevalence for HIV/AIDS of more than 0.5% and where VR systems were less than 65% complete, we informed our estimates of age-sex-specific mortality using the Estimation and Projection Package (EPP)-Spectrum model fitted to national HIV/AIDS prevalence surveys and antenatal clinic serosurveillance systems. We estimated stillbirths, early neonatal, late neonatal, and childhood mortality using both survey and VR data in spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression models. We estimated abridged life tables for all location-years using age-specific death rates. We grouped locations into development quintiles based on the Sociodemographic Index (SDI) and analysed mortality trends by quintile. Using spline regression, we estimated the expected mortality rate for each age-sex group as a function of SDI. We identified countries with higher life expectancy than expected by comparing observed life expectancy to anticipated life expectancy on the basis of development status alone. Findings Completeness in the registration of deaths increased from 28% in 1970 to a peak of 45% in 2013; completeness was lower after 2013 because of lags in reporting. Total deaths in children younger than 5 years decreased from 1970 to 2016, and slower decreases occurred at ages 5-24 years. By contrast, numbers of adult deaths increased in each 5-year age bracket above the age of 25 years. The distribution of annualised rates of change in age-specific mortality rate differed over the period 2000 to 2016 compared with earlier decades: increasing annualised rates of change were less frequent, although rising annualised rates of change still occurred in some locations, particularly for adolescent and younger adult age groups. Rates of stillbirths and under-5 mortality both decreased globally from 1970. Evidence for global convergence of death rates was mixed; although the absolute difference between age-standardised death rates narrowed between countries at the lowest and highest levels of SDI, the ratio of these death rates-a measure of relative inequality-increased slightly. There was a strong shift between 1970 and 2016 toward higher life expectancy, most noticeably at higher levels of SDI. Among countries with populations greater than 1 million in 2016, life expectancy at birth was highest for women in Japan, at 86.9 years (95% UI 86.7-87.2), and for men in Singapore, at 81.3 years (78.8-83.7) in 2016. Male life expectancy was generally lower than female life expectancy between 1970 and 2016, and the gap between male and female life expectancy increased with progression to higher levels of SDI. Some countries with exceptional health performance in 1990 in terms of the difference in observed to expected life expectancy at birth had slower progress on the same measure in 2016. Interpretation Globally, mortality rates have decreased across all age groups over the past five decades, with the largest improvements occurring among children younger than 5 years. However, at the national level, considerable heterogeneity remains in terms of both level and rate of changes in age-specific mortality; increases in mortality for certain age groups occurred in some locations. We found evidence that the absolute gap between countries in age-specific death rates has declined, although the relative gap for some age-sex groups increased. Countries that now lead in terms of having higher observed life expectancy than that expected on the basis of development alone, or locations that have either increased this advantage or rapidly decreased the deficit from expected levels, could provide insight into the means to accelerate progress in nations where progress has stalled. Copyright (C) The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license.Peer reviewe

Geoeconomic variations in epidemiology, ventilation management, and outcomes in invasively ventilated intensive care unit patients without acute respiratory distress syndrome: a pooled analysis of four observational studies

Background: Geoeconomic variations in epidemiology, the practice of ventilation, and outcome in invasively ventilated intensive care unit (ICU) patients without acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) remain unexplored. In this analysis we aim to address these gaps using individual patient data of four large observational studies. Methods: In this pooled analysis we harmonised individual patient data from the ERICC, LUNG SAFE, PRoVENT, and PRoVENT-iMiC prospective observational studies, which were conducted from June, 2011, to December, 2018, in 534 ICUs in 54 countries. We used the 2016 World Bank classification to define two geoeconomic regions: middle-income countries (MICs) and high-income countries (HICs). ARDS was defined according to the Berlin criteria. Descriptive statistics were used to compare patients in MICs versus HICs. The primary outcome was the use of low tidal volume ventilation (LTVV) for the first 3 days of mechanical ventilation. Secondary outcomes were key ventilation parameters (tidal volume size, positive end-expiratory pressure, fraction of inspired oxygen, peak pressure, plateau pressure, driving pressure, and respiratory rate), patient characteristics, the risk for and actual development of acute respiratory distress syndrome after the first day of ventilation, duration of ventilation, ICU length of stay, and ICU mortality. Findings: Of the 7608 patients included in the original studies, this analysis included 3852 patients without ARDS, of whom 2345 were from MICs and 1507 were from HICs. Patients in MICs were younger, shorter and with a slightly lower body-mass index, more often had diabetes and active cancer, but less often chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and heart failure than patients from HICs. Sequential organ failure assessment scores were similar in MICs and HICs. Use of LTVV in MICs and HICs was comparable (42·4% vs 44·2%; absolute difference -1·69 [-9·58 to 6·11] p=0·67; data available in 3174 [82%] of 3852 patients). The median applied positive end expiratory pressure was lower in MICs than in HICs (5 [IQR 5-8] vs 6 [5-8] cm H2O; p=0·0011). ICU mortality was higher in MICs than in HICs (30·5% vs 19·9%; p=0·0004; adjusted effect 16·41% [95% CI 9·52-23·52]; p&lt;0·0001) and was inversely associated with gross domestic product (adjusted odds ratio for a US$10 000 increase per capita 0·80 [95% CI 0·75-0·86]; p&lt;0·0001). Interpretation: Despite similar disease severity and ventilation management, ICU mortality in patients without ARDS is higher in MICs than in HICs, with a strong association with country-level economic status

Global, regional, and national life expectancy, all-cause mortality, and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes of death, 1980–2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

Background Improving survival and extending the longevity of life for all populations requires timely, robust evidence on local mortality levels and trends. The Global Burden of Disease 2015 Study (GBD 2015) provides a comprehensive assessment of all-cause and cause-specifi c mortality for 249 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2015. These results informed an in-depth investigation of observed and expected mortality patterns based on sociodemographic measures. Methods We estimated all-cause mortality by age, sex, geography, and year using an improved analytical approach originally developed for GBD 2013 and GBD 2010. Improvements included refi nements to the estimation of child and adult mortality and corresponding uncertainty, parameter selection for under-5 mortality synthesis by spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression, and sibling history data processing. We also expanded the database of vital registration, survey, and census data to 14 294 geography–year datapoints. For GBD 2015, eight causes, including Ebola virus disease, were added to the previous GBD cause list for mortality. We used six modelling approaches to assess causespecific mortality, with the Cause of Death Ensemble Model (CODEm) generating estimates for most causes. We used a series of novel analyses to systematically quantify the drivers of trends in mortality across geographies. First, we assessed observed and expected levels and trends of cause-specifi c mortality as they relate to the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary indicator derived from measures of income per capita, educational attainment, and fertility. Second, we examined factors aff ecting total mortality patterns through a series of counterfactual scenarios, testing the magnitude by which population growth, population age structures, and epidemiological changes contributed to shifts in mortality. Finally, we attributed changes in life expectancy to changes in cause of death. We documented each step of the GBD 2015 estimation processes, as well as data sources, in accordance with Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting (GATHER). Findings Globally, life expectancy from birth increased from 61·7 years (95% uncertainty interval 61·4–61·9) in 1980 to 71·8 years (71·5–72·2) in 2015. Several countries in sub-Saharan Africa had very large gains in life expectancy from 2005 to 2015, rebounding from an era of exceedingly high loss of life due to HIV/AIDS. At the same time, many geographies saw life expectancy stagnate or decline, particularly for men and in countries with rising mortality from war or interpersonal violence. From 2005 to 2015, male life expectancy in Syria dropped by 11·3 years (3·7–17·4), to 62·6 years (56·5–70·2). Total deaths increased by 4·1% (2·6–5·6) from 2005 to 2015, rising to 55·8 million (54·9 million to 56·6 million) in 2015, but age-standardised death rates fell by 17·0% (15·8–18·1) during this time, underscoring changes in population growth and shifts in global age structures. The result was similar for noncommunicable diseases (NCDs), with total deaths from these causes increasing by 14·1% (12·6–16·0) to 39·8 million (39·2 million to 40·5 million) in 2015, whereas age-standardised rates decreased by 13·1% (11·9–14·3). Globally, this mortality pattern emerged for several NCDs, including several types of cancer, ischaemic heart disease, cirrhosis, and Alzheimer’s disease and other dementias. By contrast, both total deaths and age-standardised death rates due to communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional conditions signifi cantly declined from 2005 to 2015, gains largely attributable to decreases in mortality rates due to HIV/AIDS (42·1%, 39·1–44·6), malaria (43·1%, 34·7–51·8), neonatal preterm birth complications (29·8%, 24·8–34·9), and maternal disorders (29·1%, 19·3–37·1). Progress was slower for several causes, such as lower respiratory infections and nutritional defi ciencies, whereas deaths increased for others, including dengue and drug use disorders. Age-standardised death rates due to injuries significantly declined from 2005 to 2015, yet interpersonal violence and war claimed increasingly more lives in some regions, particularly in the Middle East. In 2015, rotaviral enteritis (rotavirus) was the leading cause of under-5 deaths due to diarrhoea (146 000 deaths, 118 000–183 000) and pneumococcal pneumonia was the leading cause of under-5 deaths due to lower respiratory infections (393 000 deaths, 228 000–532 000), although pathogen-specifi c mortality varied by region. Globally, the eff ects of population growth, ageing, and changes in age-standardised death rates substantially diff ered by cause. Our analyses on the expected associations between cause-specifi c mortality and SDI show the regular shifts in cause of death composition and population age structure with rising SDI. Country patterns of premature mortality (measured as years of life lost [YLLs]) and how they diff er from the level expected on the basis of SDI alone revealed distinct but highly heterogeneous patterns by region and country or territory. Ischaemic heart disease, stroke, and diabetes were among the leading causes of YLLs in most regions, but in many cases, intraregional results sharply diverged for ratios of observed and expected YLLs based on SDI. Communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases caused the most YLLs throughout sub-Saharan Africa, with observed YLLs far exceeding expected YLLs for countries in which malaria or HIV/AIDS remained the leading causes of early death. Interpretation At the global scale, age-specifi c mortality has steadily improved over the past 35 years; this pattern of general progress continued in the past decade. Progress has been faster in most countries than expected on the basis of development measured by the SDI. Against this background of progress, some countries have seen falls in life expectancy, and age-standardised death rates for some causes are increasing. Despite progress in reducing agestandardised death rates, population growth and ageing mean that the number of deaths from most noncommunicable causes are increasing in most countries, putting increased demands on health systems