Cooperation, Norms, and Revolutions: A Unified Game-Theoretical Approach

Cooperation is of utmost importance to society as a whole, but is often challenged by individual self-interests. While game theory has studied this problem extensively, there is little work on interactions within and across groups with different preferences or beliefs. Yet, people from different social or cultural backgrounds often meet and interact. This can yield conflict, since behavior that is considered cooperative by one population might be perceived as non-cooperative from the viewpoint of another. To understand the dynamics and outcome of the competitive interactions within and between groups, we study game-dynamical replicator equations for multiple populations with incompatible interests and different power (be this due to different population sizes, material resources, social capital, or other factors). These equations allow us to address various important questions: For example, can cooperation in the prisoner's dilemma be promoted, when two interacting groups have different preferences? Under what conditions can costly punishment, or other mechanisms, foster the evolution of norms? When does cooperation fail, leading to antagonistic behavior, conflict, or even revolutions? And what incentives are needed to reach peaceful agreements between groups with conflicting interests? Our detailed quantitative analysis reveals a large variety of interesting results, which are relevant for society, law and economics, and have implications for the evolution of language and culture as well

Evolutionary games on graphs

Game theory is one of the key paradigms behind many scientific disciplines from biology to behavioral sciences to economics. In its evolutionary form and especially when the interacting agents are linked in a specific social network the underlying solution concepts and methods are very similar to those applied in non-equilibrium statistical physics. This review gives a tutorial-type overview of the field for physicists. The first three sections introduce the necessary background in classical and evolutionary game theory from the basic definitions to the most important results. The fourth section surveys the topological complications implied by non-mean-field-type social network structures in general. The last three sections discuss in detail the dynamic behavior of three prominent classes of models: the Prisoner's Dilemma, the Rock-Scissors-Paper game, and Competing Associations. The major theme of the review is in what sense and how the graph structure of interactions can modify and enrich the picture of long term behavioral patterns emerging in evolutionary games.Comment: Review, final version, 133 pages, 65 figure

Forest and woodland replacement patterns following drought-related mortality

Forest vulnerability to drought is expected to increase under anthropogenic climate change, and drought-induced mortality and community dynamics following drought have major ecological and societal impacts. Here, we show that tree mortality concomitant with drought has led to short-term (mean 5 y, range 1 to 23 y after mortality) vegetation-type conversion in multiple biomes across the world (131 sites). Self-replacement of the dominant tree species was only prevalent in 21% of the examined cases and forests and woodlands shifted to nonwoody vegetation in 10% of them. The ultimate temporal persistence of such changes remains unknown but, given the key role of biological legacies in long-term ecological succession, this emerging picture of postdrought ecological trajectories highlights the potential for major ecosystem reorganization in the coming decades. Community changes were less pronounced under wetter postmortality conditions. Replacement was also influenced by management intensity, and postdrought shrub dominance was higher when pathogens acted as codrivers of tree mortality. Early change in community composition indicates that forests dominated by mesic species generally shifted toward more xeric communities, with replacing tree and shrub species exhibiting drier bioclimatic optima and distribution ranges. However, shifts toward more mesic communities also occurred and multiple pathways of forest replacement were observed for some species. Drought characteristics, species-specific environmental preferences, plant traits, and ecosystem legacies govern post drought species turnover and subsequent ecological trajectories, with potential far-reaching implications for forest biodiversity and ecosystem services.Peer reviewe

A tetraoxane-based antimalarial drug candidate that overcomes PfK13-C580Y dependent artemisinin resistance.

K13 gene mutations are a primary marker of artemisinin resistance in Plasmodium falciparum malaria that threatens the long-term clinical utility of artemisinin-based combination therapies, the cornerstone of modern day malaria treatment. Here we describe a multinational drug discovery programme that has delivered a synthetic tetraoxane-based molecule, E209, which meets key requirements of the Medicines for Malaria Venture drug candidate profiles. E209 has potent nanomolar inhibitory activity against multiple strains of P. falciparum and P. vivax in vitro, is efficacious against P. falciparum in in vivo rodent models, produces parasite reduction ratios equivalent to dihydroartemisinin and has pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic characteristics compatible with a single-dose cure. In vitro studies with transgenic parasites expressing variant forms of K13 show no cross-resistance with the C580Y mutation, the primary variant observed in Southeast Asia. E209 is a superior next generation endoperoxide with combined pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic features that overcome the liabilities of artemisinin derivatives

Serum screening with Down's syndrome markers to predict pre-eclampsia and small for gestational age: Systematic review and meta-analysis

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Reliable antenatal identification of pre-eclampsia and small for gestational age is crucial to judicious allocation of monitoring resources and use of preventative treatment with the prospect of improving maternal/perinatal outcome. The purpose of this systematic review was to determine the accuracy of five serum analytes used in Down's serum screening for prediction of pre-eclampsia and/or small for gestational age.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>The data sources included Medline, Embase, Cochrane library, Medion (inception to February 2007), hand searching of relevant journals, reference list checking of included articles, contact with experts. Two reviewers independently selected the articles in which the accuracy of an analyte used in Downs's serum screening before the 25^thgestational week was associated with the occurrence of pre-eclampsia and/or small for gestational age without language restrictions. Two authors independently extracted data on study characteristics, quality and results.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Five serum screening markers were evaluated. 44 studies, testing 169,637 pregnant women (4376 pre-eclampsia cases) and 86 studies, testing 382,005 women (20,339 fetal growth restriction cases) met the selection criteria. The results showed low predictive accuracy overall. For pre-eclampsia the best predictor was inhibin A>2.79MoM positive likelihood ratio 19.52 (8.33,45.79) and negative likelihood ratio 0.30 (0.13,0.68) (single study). For small for gestational age it was AFP>2.0MoM to predict birth weight < 10^thcentile with birth < 37 weeks positive likelihood ratio 27.96 (8.02,97.48) and negative likelihood ratio 0.78 (0.55,1.11) (single study). A potential clinical application using aspirin as a treatment is given as an example.</p> <p>There were methodological and reporting limitations in the included studies thus studies were heterogeneous giving pooled results with wide confidence intervals.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Down's serum screening analytes have low predictive accuracy for pre-eclampsia and small for gestational age. They may be a useful means of risk assessment or of use in prediction when combined with other tests.</p

Melbourne's grassland monitoring protocol

A description of the methods used to collect the inventory, vegetation cover and vegetation structure data in this datavers

Fire regime, not time-since-fire, affects soil fungal community diversity and composition in temperate grasslands

Frequent burning is commonly undertaken to maintain diversity in temperate grasslands of southern Australia. How burning affects below-ground fungal community diversity remains unknown.We show, using a fungal rDNA metabarcoding approach (Illumina MiSeq), that the fungal community composition was influenced by fire regime (frequency) but not time-since-fire. Fungal community composition was resilient to direct fire effects, most likely because grassland fires transfer little heat to the soil. Differences in the fungal community composition due to fire regime was likely due to associated changes that occur in vegetation with recurrent fire, via the break up of obligate symbiotic relationships. However, fire history only partially explains the observed dissimilarity in composition among the soil samples, suggesting a distinctiveness in composition in each grassland site. The importance of considering changes in soil microbe communities when managing vegetation with fire is highlighted

The importance of small urban reserves for plant conservation

There has been much debate about the effectiveness of different sized reserves for nature conservation. However, in human-dominated landscapes such as cities, conservation reserve systems are, by necessity, often determined without using conservation planning principles. This can result in reserve systems that are small, fragmented and disconnected. In this study, we conducted a floristic survey of 68 urban grassland conservation reserves to assess how reserves of different areas contribute to species conservation. Species accumulation curves, species-area relationships, and proportion of native cover were explored. We found that 87% of all native plant species were found in small reserves < 10 ha in size, more small reserves contained a greater number of species than few large reserves of a comparable area, and cover of native species in small reserves was no different than cover in large reserves. However, large reserves harboured more uncommon species than smaller reserves. This research has several important implications for conservation planning and design, highlighting that both small and large reserves can help to conserve native plant species in urban areas. However, a preference for large reserves over small ones is embedded in much conservation planning and management. There is a danger that a normative belief that large reserves are ‘good’ and small reserves are ‘bad’ has become entrenched in conservation thinking. While the theory and evidence showing the conservation benefits of large reserves over small reserves for some organisms is clear, in some cases, small reserves can make a substantial and genuine contribution to conservation outcomes.This work was supported by the Myer Foundation and the Baker Foundation