Advanced Modelling Strategies: Challenges and pitfalls in robust causal inference with observational data

Advanced Modelling Strategies: Challenges and pitfalls in robust causal inference with observational data summarises the lecture notes prepared for a four-day workshop sponsored by the Society for Social Medicine and hosted by the Leeds Institute for Data Analytics (LIDA) at the University of Leeds on 17th-20th July 2017

Reflection on modern methods: generalized linear models for prognosis and intervention—theory, practice and implications for machine learning

Prediction and causal explanation are fundamentally distinct tasks of data analysis. In health applications, this difference can be understood in terms of the difference between prognosis (prediction) and prevention/treatment (causal explanation). Nevertheless, these two concepts are often conflated in practice. We use the framework of generalized linear models (GLMs) to illustrate that predictive and causal queries require distinct processes for their application and subsequent interpretation of results. In particular, we identify five primary ways in which GLMs for prediction differ from GLMs for causal inference: (i) the covariates that should be considered for inclusion in (and possibly exclusion from) the model; (ii) how a suitable set of covariates to include in the model is determined; (iii) which covariates are ultimately selected and what functional form (i.e. parameterization) they take; (iv) how the model is evaluated; and (v) how the model is interpreted. We outline some of the potential consequences of failing to acknowledge and respect these differences, and additionally consider the implications for machine learning (ML) methods. We then conclude with three recommendations that we hope will help ensure that both prediction and causal modelling are used appropriately and to greatest effect in health research

The transition between stochastic and deterministic behavior in an excitable gene circuit

We explore the connection between a stochastic simulation model and an ordinary differential equations (ODEs) model of the dynamics of an excitable gene circuit that exhibits noise-induced oscillations. Near a bifurcation point in the ODE model, the stochastic simulation model yields behavior dramatically different from that predicted by the ODE model. We analyze how that behavior depends on the gene copy number and find very slow convergence to the large number limit near the bifurcation point. The implications for understanding the dynamics of gene circuits and other birth-death dynamical systems with small numbers of constituents are discussed.Comment: PLoS ONE: Research Article, published 11 Apr 201

Methods and processes for development of a CONSORT extension for reporting pilot randomized controlled trials.

BACKGROUND: Feasibility and pilot studies are essential components of planning or preparing for a larger randomized controlled trial (RCT). They are intended to provide useful information about the feasibility of the main RCT-with the goal of reducing uncertainty and thereby increasing the chance of successfully conducting the main RCT. However, research has shown that there are serious inadequacies in the reporting of pilot and feasibility studies. Reasons for this include a lack of explicit publication policies for pilot and feasibility studies in many journals, unclear definitions of what constitutes a pilot or feasibility RCT/study, and a lack of clarity in the objectives and methodological focus. All these suggest that there is an urgent need for new guidelines for reporting pilot and feasibility studies. OBJECTIVES: The aim of this paper is to describe the methods and processes in our development of an extension to the Consolidated Standards of Reporting Trials (CONSORT) Statement for reporting pilot and feasibility RCTs, that are executed in preparation for a future, more definitive RCT. METHODS/DESIGN: There were five overlapping parts to the project: (i) the project launch-which involved establishing a working group and conducting a review of the literature; (ii) stakeholder engagement-which entailed consultation with the CONSORT group, journal editors and publishers, the clinical trials community, and funders; (iii) a Delphi process-used to assess the agreement of experts on initial definitions and to generate a reporting checklist for pilot RCTs, based on the 2010 CONSORT statement extension applicable to reporting pilot studies; (iv) a consensus meeting-to discuss, add, remove, or modify checklist items, with input from experts in the field; and (v) write-up and implementation-which included a guideline document which gives an explanation and elaboration (E&E) and which will provide advice for each item, together with examples of good reporting practice. This final part also included a plan for dissemination and publication of the guideline. CONCLUSIONS: We anticipate that implementation of our guideline will improve the reporting completeness, transparency, and quality of pilot RCTs, and hence benefit several constituencies, including authors of journal manuscripts, funding agencies, educators, researchers, and end-users

Second St. Gallen European Organisation for Research and Treatment of Cancer Gastrointestinal Cancer Conference: consensus recommendations on controversial issues in the primary treatment of rectal cancer

Primary treatment of rectal cancer was the focus of the second St. Gallen European Organisation for Research and Treatment of Cancer (EORTC) Gastrointestinal Cancer Conference. In the context of the conference, a multidisciplinary international expert panel discussed and voted on controversial issues which could not be easily answered using published evidence. Main topics included optimal pretherapeutic imaging, indication and type of neoadjuvant treatment, and the treatment strategies in advanced tumours. Here we report the key recommendations and summarise the related evidence. The treatment strategy for localised rectal cancer varies from local excision in early tumours to neoadjuvant radiochemotherapy (RCT) in combination with extended surgery in locally advanced disease. Optimal pretherapeutic staging is a key to any treatment decision. The panel recommended magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) or MRI + endoscopic ultrasonography (EUS) as mandatory staging modalities, except for early T1 cancers with an option for local excision, where EUS in addition to MRI was considered to be most important because of its superior near-field resolution. Primary surgery with total mesorectal excision was recommended by most panellists for some early tumours with limited risk of recurrence (i.e. cT1-2 or cT3a N0 with clear mesorectal fascia on MRI and clearly above the levator muscles), whereas all other stages were considered for multimodal treatment. The consensus panel recommended long-course RCT over short-course radiotherapy for most clinical situations where neoadjuvant treatment is indicated, with the exception of T3a/b N0 tumours where short-course radiotherapy or even no neoadjuvant therapy were regarded to be an option. In patients with potentially resectable tumours and synchronous liver metastases, most panel members did not see an indication to start with classical fluoropyrimidine-based RCT but rather favoured preoperative short-course radiotherapy with systemic combination chemotherapy or alternatively a liver-first resection approach in resectable metastases, which both allow optimal systemic therapy for the metastatic disease. In general, proper patient selection and discussion in an experienced multidisciplinary team was considered as crucial component of care

The identification of genes important in pseudomonas syringae pv. phaseolicola plant colonisation using in vitro screening of transposon libraries

The bacterial plant pathogen Pseudomonas syringae pv. phaseolicola (Pph) colonises the surface of common bean plants before moving into the interior of plant tissue, via wounds and stomata. In the intercellular spaces the pathogen proliferates in the apoplastic fluid and forms microcolonies (biofilms) around plant cells. If the pathogen can suppress the plant’s natural resistance response, it will cause halo blight disease. The process of resistance suppression is fairly well understood, but the mechanisms used by the pathogen in colonisation are less clear. We hypothesised that we could apply in vitro genetic screens to look for changes in motility, colony formation, and adhesion, which are proxies for infection, microcolony formation and cell adhesion. We made transposon (Tn) mutant libraries of Pph strains 1448A and 1302A and found 106/1920 mutants exhibited alterations in colony morphology, motility and biofilm formation. Identification of the insertion point of the Tn identified within the genome highlighted, as expected, a number of altered motility mutants bearing mutations in genes encoding various parts of the flagellum. Genes involved in nutrient biosynthesis, membrane associated proteins, and a number of conserved hypothetical protein (CHP) genes were also identified. A mutation of one CHP gene caused a positive increase in in planta bacterial growth. This rapid and inexpensive screening method allows the discovery of genes important for in vitro traits that can be correlated to roles in the plant interactio

A randomized controlled trial reporting functional outcomes of cognitive-behavioural therapy in medication‑treated adults with ADHD and comorbid psychopathology

Studies assessing psychological treatment of attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) in adults are increasingly reported. However, functional outcomes are often neglected in favour of symptom outcomes. We investigated functional outcomes in 95 adults with ADHD who were already treated with medication and randomized to receive treatment as usual (TAU/MED) or psychological treatment (CBT/MED) using a cognitive–behavioural programme, R&R2ADHD, which employs both group and individual modalities. RATE-S functional outcomes associated with ADHD symptoms, social functioning, emotional control and antisocial behaviour were given at baseline, end of treatment and three-month follow-up. The Total composite score of these scales is associated with life satisfaction. In addition, independent evaluator ratings of clinicians who were blind to treatment arm were obtained on the Clinical Global Impression scale at each time point. CBT/MED showed overall (combined outcome at end of treatment and 3-month follow-up) significantly greater functional improvement on all scales. Post-group treatment effects were maintained at follow-up with the exception of emotional control and the Total composite scales, which continued to improve. The largest treatment effect was for the RATE-S Total composite scale, associated with life satisfaction. CGI significantly correlated with all outcomes except for social functioning scale at follow-up. The study provides further evidence for the effectiveness of R&R2ADHD and demonstrates the importance of measuring functional outcomes. The key mechanism associated with improved functional outcomes is likely to be behavioural control

A community-based intervention (Young SMILES) to improve the health-related quality of life of children and young people of parents with serious mental illness: randomised feasibility protocol

Children and young people of parents with mental illness (COPMI) are at risk of poor mental, physical and emotional health, which can persist into adulthood. They also experience poorer social outcomes and wellbeing as well as poorer quality of life than their peers with ‘healthy’ parents. The needs of COPMI are likely to be significant; however, their prevalence is unknown, although estimates suggest over 60% of adults with a serious mental illness have children. Many receive little or no support and remain ‘hidden’, stigmatised or do not regard themselves as ‘in need’. Recent UK policies have identified supporting COPMI as a key priority, but this alone is insufficient and healthrelated quality of life has been neglected as an outcome

Performance of the CMS Cathode Strip Chambers with Cosmic Rays

The Cathode Strip Chambers (CSCs) constitute the primary muon tracking device in the CMS endcaps. Their performance has been evaluated using data taken during a cosmic ray run in fall 2008. Measured noise levels are low, with the number of noisy channels well below 1%. Coordinate resolution was measured for all types of chambers, and fall in the range 47 microns to 243 microns. The efficiencies for local charged track triggers, for hit and for segments reconstruction were measured, and are above 99%. The timing resolution per layer is approximately 5 ns

Search for new phenomena in final states with an energetic jet and large missing transverse momentum in pp collisions at √ s = 8 TeV with the ATLAS detector

Results of a search for new phenomena in final states with an energetic jet and large missing transverse momentum are reported. The search uses 20.3 fb−1 of √ s = 8 TeV data collected in 2012 with the ATLAS detector at the LHC. Events are required to have at least one jet with pT > 120 GeV and no leptons. Nine signal regions are considered with increasing missing transverse momentum requirements between Emiss T > 150 GeV and Emiss T > 700 GeV. Good agreement is observed between the number of events in data and Standard Model expectations. The results are translated into exclusion limits on models with either large extra spatial dimensions, pair production of weakly interacting dark matter candidates, or production of very light gravitinos in a gauge-mediated supersymmetric model. In addition, limits on the production of an invisibly decaying Higgs-like boson leading to similar topologies in the final state are presente