Cross-validating administrative and survey datasets through microsimulation and the assessment of a tax reform in Luxembourg

Using EUROMOD, we cross-validate two types of micro-data presently available in the Grand-Duchy of Luxembourg, administrative data on one hand and survey data on the other hand. While administrative data, extracted from the recently implemented Social Security Data Warehouse, contain information of the whole population of Luxembourg (449,000 observations) in 2003, survey data, extracted from the Luxembourg household panel PSELL3/EU-SILC for 2004 (incomes from 2003), is a representative sample of around 3,600 private households (9,800 individuals) living in Luxembourg with detailed information on incomes, household structure and other socio-economic dimensions. As a concrete application of this cross-validation, we analyze the 2001-2002 tax reform in Luxembourg. The main aspects of this reform are the reduction of the number of the tax brackets and the fall of the maximal marginal tax rate (from 46% in 2000 to 42% in 2001 and to 38% in 2002). The distributional effects of the tax reform are measured in terms of losers and winners, change in inequalities and poverty rates. The results issued from different types of input data are compared for cross-validation and allow us to emphasize methodological difficulties as well as to underline the advantages and limitations of each dataset.EUROMOD ; Microsimulation ; Tax reform ; Validation

A13K-0336: Airborne Multi-Wavelength High Spectral Resolution Lidar for Process Studies and Assessment of Future Satellite Remote Sensing Concepts

NASA Langley recently developed the world's first airborne multi-wavelength high spectral resolution lidar (HSRL). This lidar employs the HSRL technique at 355 and 532 nm to make independent, unambiguous retrievals of aerosol extinction and backscatter. It also employs the standard backscatter technique at 1064 nm and is polarization-sensitive at all three wavelengths. This instrument, dubbed HSRL-2 (the secondgeneration HSRL developed by NASA Langley), is a prototype for the lidar on NASA's planned Aerosols- Clouds-Ecosystems (ACE) mission. HSRL-2 completed its first science mission in July 2012, the Two-Column Aerosol Project (TCAP) conducted by the Department of Energy (DOE) in Hyannis, MA. TCAP presents an excellent opportunity to assess some of the remote sensing concepts planned for ACE: HSRL-2 was deployed on the Langley King Air aircraft with another ACE-relevant instrument, the NASA GISS Research Scanning Polarimeter (RSP), and flights were closely coordinated with the DOE's Gulfstream-1 aircraft, which deployed a variety of in situ aerosol and trace gas instruments and the new Spectrometer for Sky-Scanning, Sun-Tracking Atmospheric Research (4STAR). The DOE also deployed their Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Mobile Facility and their Mobile Aerosol Observing System at a ground site located on the northeastern coast of Cape Cod for this mission. In this presentation we focus on the capabilities, data products, and applications of the new HSRL-2 instrument. Data products include aerosol extinction, backscatter, depolarization, and optical depth; aerosol type identification; mixed layer depth; and rangeresolved aerosol microphysical parameters (e.g., effective radius, index of refraction, single scatter albedo, and concentration). Applications include radiative closure studies, studies of aerosol direct and indirect effects, investigations of aerosol-cloud interactions, assessment of chemical transport models, air quality studies, present (e.g., CALIPSO) and future (e.g., EarthCARE) satellite calibration/validation, and development/assessment of advanced retrieval techniques for future satellite applications (e.g., lidar+polarimeter retrievals of aerosol and cloud properties). We will also discuss the relevance of HSRL-2 measurement capabilities to the ACE remote sensing concept

Ecosystem services and hydroelectricity in Central America: modelling service flows with fuzzy logic and expert knowledge

Because ecosystem services are generally not produced and used in the same place, their assessment should consider the flows of services from ecosystems to users. These flows depend on the characteristics and spatial distribution of ecosystems and users, the spatial relationships between them, and the presence of filters or barriers between ecosystems and users. The objective of this paper is to map the ecosystem services provided to the Costa Rican and Nicaraguan hydroelectric sectors, which are crucial sectors for national sustainable development and depend directly on hydrological ecosystem services. The paper presents an approach for modelling the flows of multiple services from diverse ecosystems to diverse users through different kinds of filters in a landscape. The approach uses expert knowledge and fuzzy numbers to handle uncertainties. The analyses for Costa Rica and Nicaragua show how the approach helps identify priority areas for the conservation and restoration of forests for the services they provide to the hydroelectric sector. As such, it is a useful tool for defining spatially targeted policies for the conservation of ecosystem services and for involving the users of ecosystem services in ecosystem management. (Résumé d'auteur

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Cross-validating administrative and survey datasets through microsimulation

In this paper we cross-validate two sources of data, administrative and sample survey, addressing an issue commonly faced by analysts regarding the relative reliability and comparability of these two data sources. By way of case study, the paper uses data presently available in the Grand-Duchy of Luxembourg. While administrative data extracted from the recently implemented Social Security Data Warehouse contains information about the whole population of Luxembourg (449,000 observations) in 2003, survey data, extracted from the Luxembourg household panel PSELL3/EU-SILC for 2004 (incomes from 2003), provides a representative sample of only around 3,600 private households (9,800 individuals) living in Luxembourg. The attraction of the survey is the more detailed information it provides on incomes, family relationships and other socio-economic dimensions. Our paper first analyzes the advantages and limitations of each dataset, before outlining and addressing methodological difficulties relating to their cross-validation. Through the cross-validation that follows we conclude that the survey database performs reasonably well in capturing the relevant characteristics of the resident population and allows analyses with respect to characteristics not found in the administrative database, and vice versa. Importantly we find that even if, on average, some monetary variables are different in the two datasets, the shapes of the equivalised income distributions broadly coincide. Even so, we observe a few important discrepancies at the extremes of the curves. Finally, through use of the EUROMOD microsimulation platform, we are able to show that the discrepancies observed between these income data sources are insufficient to significantly affect the conclusions drawn from analysis of policy alternatives.Administrative data, EUROMOD, Microsimulation, Survey data, Validation.

LIAM 2: a new open source development tool for the development of discrete-time dynamic microsimulation models

Most existing microsimulation models have been developed by separate (teams of) researchers. The drawback of each team working on its own is that they have to put a lot of time and effort in the customary development of fairly general simulation tools. Hence, economies of scale cannot be exploited, which makes microsimulation models even more expensive than strictly necessary. The objective of this paper is to introduce and present the simulation modelling package LIAM2. This is a free, open source, modelling framework, designed for the development of discrete-time dynamic models with dynamic ageing. The paper presents a template model and discusses the performance of LIAM2 in terms of data capacity and simulation speed.status: publishe

The COVID-19 resilience of a continental welfare regime - nowcasting the distributional impact of the crisis

We evaluate the COVID-19 resilience of a Continental welfare regime by nowcasting the implications of the shock and its associated policy responses on the distribution of household incomes over the whole of 2020. Our approach relies on a dynamic microsimulation modelling that combines a household income generation model estimated on the latest EU-SILC wave with novel nowcasting techniques to calibrate the simulations using external macro controls which reflect the macroeconomic climate during the crisis. We focus on Luxembourg, a country that introduced minor tweaks to the existing tax-benefit system, which has a strong social insurance focus that gave certainty during the crisis. We find the system was well-equipped ahead of the crisis to cushion household incomes against job losses. The income-support policy changes were effective in cushioning household incomes and mitigating an increase in income inequality, allowing average household disposable income and inequality levels to bounce back to pre-crisis levels in the last quarter of 2020. The share of labour incomes dropped, but was compensated by an increase in benefits, reflecting the cushioning effect of the transfer system. Overall market incomes dropped and became more unequal. Their disequalizing evolution was matched by an increase in redistribution, driven by an increase in the generosity of benefits and larger access to benefits. The nowcasting model is a “near” real-time analysis and decision support tool to monitor the recovery, scalable to other countries with high applicability for policymakers. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at doi:10.1007/s10888-021-09524-4