Is the Taylor Rule Really Different from the McCallum Rule?

When base velocity is a stable function of the Federal funds rate (FFR), the money base-nominal GDP targeting rule (McCallum rule) can be reparameterized and presented in terms of FFR as the policy instrument. Comparison of this McCallum modified policy rule with the popular Taylor rule suggests that these two rules and the FFR are actually closely related. Model-based evaluations of the two rules' stabilization properties indicate that the modified McCallum rule is similar to the Taylor rule. The key to this result is the degree of interest rate smoothing applied to the policy rules. (JEL "E3", "E52", "E58") Copyright 2003 Western Economic Association International.

A Perspective on Unit Root and Cointegration in Applied Macroeconomics

I discuss econometric issues of high relevance to economists in central banks whose job is to interpret the permanency of shocks and provide policy advice to policymakers. Trend, unit root, and persistence are difficult to interpret. There are numerous econometric tests, which vary in their power and usefulness. I provide a set of strategies on dealing with macro time series.Unit root, trend, persistence, cointegration

Towards Building A New Consensus About New Zealand’s Productivity

There is a wide consensus that New Zealand’s productivity has been poor despite the comprehensive market-oriented reforms of the 1980’s. This consensus is based on estimates of New Zealand’s productivity growth measured either in terms of GDP per capita or total factor productivity (TFP). TFP is typically computed using growth accounting (i.e., calibrating a Solow model with fixed capital share). We argue that identification of the nature of the trend and the method of estimation are important elements of any study of productivity growth. Although difficult, it is quite important to determine whether the trend is linear deterministic or stochastic. It is equally important to measure the trend and TFP growth when there is a structural change (the reform in 1984 and the following adjustment periods) because factor shares, which are coefficients in the production function, are unstable. New Zealand data are short and undoubtedly badly measured and estimates of the standard errors of factor shares are quite large. Thus, even when we account for structural change, TFP estimate, which depends on the estimate of factor shares, is an unreliable measure of New Zealand’s productivity. There is evidence, both time series and panel data that productivity has improved in the 1990’s and by more than we thought. There is also significant evidence of increasing returns to scales (spillovers), which when ignored understates the estimate of the share of capital. Also, there is evidence of improving convergence of productivity between New Zealand and Australia during the 1990’s. The conclusion has policy implications. We need to re-think and scrutinise the current consensus regarding current estimates before we engage in planning programmes to lift productivity.productivity, TFP, Structural change.

A contribution towards New Zealand's tax reform

We use the work-leisure choice model to estimate equilibrium labour supply (hours-worked) in New Zealand over the period 2000 – 2008. We then stochastically solve the model over a future period from 2010 to 2050, and evaluate the New Zealand’s new tax policy. We compare the welfare and relative productivity (i.e., relative to Australia) outcomes for several tax policy scenarios.Taxes, Labour supply, welfare and productivity

A Contribution Towards the New Zealand's Tax Reform

We use the work-leisure choice model to estimate equilibrium labour supply (hours-worked) in New Zealand and Australia over the period 2000 – 2008. We then stochastically solve the model over a future period from 2010 to 2015, and then re-solve it under six different tax policy scenarios for New Zealand. We evaluate the welfare and relative productivity implications of each policy.Taxes, labour supply, welfare and productivity.

Real Interest Rates, Bubbles and Monetary Policy in the GCC countries

The Gulf Cooperation Council countries (GCC) include Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the UAE. Their monetary policy objective is to stabilize the foreign price, i.e., exchange rate instead of the domestic price level, where the nominal interest rate is equalized with the US federal fund rate, but the inflation rates are independent. High oil prices and the depreciating US dollar caused inflation to rise and real interest rates to be persistently negative in the UAE and Qatar. Asset prices bubbles formed then burst creating large loses. They could have moderated the effect of, or avoided, the bubble had they floated the currency and stabilized domestic prices.Inflation, real interest rate, bubbles.

Archaeological Survey of the Outer Islands of the Gulf of Finland in 2019

In 2019, an expedition of the Institute for the History of Material Culture (IIMK) RAS conducted archaeological surveys on the following islands in the archipelago of Vneshniye Ostrova (Outer Islands, Finnish: Suomenlahden ulkosaaret) in the Gulf of Finland: Moshchny Island (Lavansaari), Maly (Peninsaari), Seskar (Seiskari) and Yuzhny Virgin (Itä-Viiri). Familiar sites were re-examined and new ones were revealed. On Moshchny Island, a cairn, a burial ground, a Bronze Age – Early Iron Age settlement, a stone foundation of a church of the Modern Period and a group of stone heaps were discovered. On Yuzhny Virgin island, stone structures including labyrinths, circles and heaps of stone were examined. The studied sites are culturally close to the antiquities of the northern littoral of the Gulf of Finland (the Vyborg region of Leningrad oblast and southeastern Finland)

Firearm Injuries Presenting to a Tertiary Care Hospital of Karachi, Pakistan

Background: Violence is a public health problem in low and middle income countries. Our study attempted to define the circumstances, risk groups, extent and severity of firearm-related injuries in Patients coming to the Aga Khan University Hospital (AKUH) Karachi, Pakistan. Methods: This was a retrospective study conducted in the department of Emergency Medicine (EM) at AKUH Karachi, Pakistan. Past medical records of all Patients who were injured by firearms and were presented to the AKUH Emergency Department (ED) from June 2002 till May 2007 were reviewed. Data were recorded on the basic demographics of injured, length of hospital stay, body parts injured and the outcome (alive vs. dead). Results: Total of 286 Patients with firearm injuries were identified. Majority of them were males (92%, n=264). More than half of the Patients (63%) were in the age group of 21-40 years. Upon arrival to the hospital 85% (n=243) of Patients had Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS)\u3e= 13. The mean injury severity score (ISS) was found to be 6 (SD 4). The length of hospital stay of Patients ranged from 0 to 54 days with a mean of 7 days. Lower limb were the most affected body parts (30%, n=86) followed by abdomen pelvis (27%, n=77). Seven percent (n=21) of the Patient who were brought to the hospital were labeled as deceased on arrival . Most of the injuries were caused during the act of robbery (40%, n=103) in the city. Conclusions: Robbery was the most common cause of firearm injuries. Lower limb, abdomen and pelvis were the most affected body regions. Educational efforts, and individual, community and societal approaches are needed to alleviate firearm-related injuries

Abdominal pain with rigidity secondary to the anti-emetic drug metoclopramide

We report a case of abdominal pain with rigidity, mimicking an acute abdomen, caused by metoclopramide, a common anti-emetic drug. Extrapyramidal symptoms are commonly reported side-effects of this medication. They generally include involuntary movements of limbs, torticollis, oculogyric crisis, rhythmic protrusion of tongue, trismus, or dystonic reactions resembling tetanus, etc. Abdominal rigidity due to this medication, resembling an acute abdomen, has not been reported previously. This case report illustrates the importance of considering medication side-effects when evaluating a patient with abdominal pain and rigidity