Anticipation, learning and welfare: the case of distortionary taxation

We study the impact of anticipated fiscal policy changes in the Ramsey economy when agents form expectations using adaptive learning. We extend the existing framework by distortionary taxes as well as elastic labour supply, which makes agents' decisions non-predetermined but more realistic. We detect that the dynamic responses to anticipated tax changes under learning have oscillatory behaviour. Moreover, we demonstrate that this behaviour can have important implications for the welfare consequences of fiscal reforms.Fiscal Policy; Adaptive Learning; Oscillations

Optimal constrained interest-rate rules under heterogeneous expectations

This paper examines optimal monetary policy under heterogeneous expectations. To this end, we develop a stochastic New Keynesian model with a cost-push shock and coexistence of one-step-ahead rational and adaptive expectations in decentralized markets. On the one side, heterogeneous expectations imply an amplification mechanism that has many adverse consequences missing under the rational expectations paradigm. On the other side, even discretionary optimal monetary policy can manipulate expectations via a novel channel. We argue that the incorporation of heterogeneous expectations in both the design and implementation of discretionary optimal monetary policy to exploit this channel lowers macroeconomic volatility. We find that: (1.) a more hawkish policy can reduce losses due to volatility, but an overly hawkish policy does not; (2.) overestimating the share of rational expectations in the design and implementation of policy creates additional losses, while the underestimation does not; (3.) credible commitment eliminates or mitigates many of the ramifications of heterogeneous expectations.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Heterogeneous expectations, optimal monetary policy and the merit of policy inertia

WOS:000342832000008 (Nº de Acesso Web of Science)The design and analysis of optimal monetary policy is usually guided by the paradigm of homogeneous rational expectations. Instead, we examine the dynamic consequences of design and implementation strategies, when the actual economy features expectational heterogeneity. Agents have either rational or adaptive expectations. Consequently, the central bank's ability to achieve price stability under heterogeneous expectations depends on its objective and implementation strategy. An expectations-based reaction function, which appropriately conditions on private sector expectations, performs exceptionally well. However, once the objective introduces policy inertia, popular strategies have similar determinacy properties, but they are less operational. This finding calls for new implementation strategies under interest rate stabilization

Do heterogeneous expectations constitute a challenge for policy interaction?

Yes, indeed; at least for macroeconomic policy interaction. We examine a Neo-Classical economy and provide the conditions for policy arrangements to successfully stabilize the economy when agents have either rational or adaptive expectations. For a contemporaneous-data monetary policy rule, the monetarist solution is unique and stationary under a passive fiscal/active monetary policy regime if monetary policy appropriately incorporates expectational heterogeneity. In contrast, the active fiscal/passive monetary policy regime's fiscalist solution is prone to explosiveness due to empirically plausible expectational heterogeneity. Nevertheless, this can be a well-defined, rather orthodox equilibrium. For operational monetary policy rules, only the results for the fiscalist solution prevail. Moreover, our results are plausible from an adaptive learning viewpoint.info:eu-repo/semantics/acceptedVersio

The Perceptions of Video Department Managers in Corporate and Educational Production Facilities : a Case Study

A general premise about the health of corporate internal video departments was developed by the researcher. The belief was that internal video departments were not satisfying the needs of their corporate clients. The evidence came from conversations with corporate clients that were unhappy with the level of service available to them in-house. Reasons given during these conversations for this dissatisfaction with in-house facilities were the absence of proper production equipment and expertise. This study was designed to explore the dynamics involved in the production of in-house corporate videotapes. Questions concerning the production needs of internal clients and the capabilities of the corporate video department were investigated by use of the observation and interview approach found in case study research. Nine corporate/ educational video department managers were interviewed to determine their impressions and departmental capabilities for serving the internal client. The results indicated that there was a mix of services blending outside vendors with the internal video departments. In spite of corporate politics, internal video facilities appeared to be healthy and busy. The department managers stated that they do meet the clients needs, often by hiring outside services to supplement a missing technology or expertise. It was interesting that video department managers differentiated between home-office corporate video departments and divisional video departments. This author recommends that further research is needed to determine if this distinction is significant, and if so, how it influences the internal client during the production of corporate video communications

Mathematische Lerngelegenheiten bei Würfelspielen – Eine Videoanalyse im Rahmen der Interventionsstudie MaBiiS

Im Rahmen der MaBiiS-Studie (Elementare mathematische Bildung in Spielsituationen) wurde der Einfluss herkömmlicher Würfelspiele auf die Entwicklung mathematischer Fähigkeiten von Kindergartenkindern untersucht (Gasteiger 2013). Welche mathematischen Lerngelegenheiten sich im Detail für Kinder im Spiel ergeben und welche Funktion erwachsene Spielleiter dabei einnehmen, zeigen Ergebnisse einer explorativen Videoanalyse der Spielsituationen, die hier berichtet werden

On the possibility of automation-induced stagnation

We analyze the long-run growth effects of automation in the standard overlapping generations framework. We show that, in contrast to other neoclassical models of capital accumulation, automation does not promote growth but induces economic stagnation. The reason is that automation suppresses wages, which are the only source of investment in the overlapping generations framework