The Edgeworth-Kuiper debris disk

(Abridged) The Edgeworth-Kuiper belt with its presumed dusty debris is a natural reference for extrsolar debris disks. We employ a new algorithm to eliminate the inclination and the distance selection effects in the known TNO populations to derive expected parameters of the "true" EKB. Its estimated mass is M_EKB=0.12 M_earth, which is by a factor of \sim 15 larger than the mass of the EKB objects detected so far. About a half of the total EKB mass is in classical and resonant objects and another half is in scattered ones. Treating the debiased populations of EKB objects as dust parent bodies, we then "generate" their dust disk with our collisional code. Apart from accurate handling of collisions and direct radiation pressure, we include the Poynting-Robertson (P-R) drag, which cannot be ignored for the EKB dust disk. Outside the classical EKB, the radial profile of the optical depth approximately follows tau \sim r^-2 which is roughly intermediate between the slope predicted analytically for collision-dominated (r^-1.5) and transport-dominated (r^-2.5) disks. The cross section-dominating grain size still lies just above the blowout size (\sim 1...2 \microm), as it would without the P-R transport. However, if the EKB were by one order of magnitude less massive, the optical depth profile would fall off as tau \sim r^-3, and the cross section-dominating grain size would shift from \sim 1...2\microm to ~100 \microm. These properties are seen if dust is assumed to be generated only by known TNOs. If the solar system were observed from outside, the thermal emission flux from the EKB dust would be about two orders of magnitude lower than for solar-type stars with the brightest known infrared excesses observed from the same distance. Herschel and other new-generation facilities should reveal extrasolar debris disks nearly as tenuous as the EKB disk. The Herschel/PACS instrument should be able to detect disks at a \sim 1...2M_EKB level.Comment: 18 pages, 14 figures, accepted for publication in A&

Functionals of the Brownian motion, localization and metric graphs

We review several results related to the problem of a quantum particle in a random environment. In an introductory part, we recall how several functionals of the Brownian motion arise in the study of electronic transport in weakly disordered metals (weak localization). Two aspects of the physics of the one-dimensional strong localization are reviewed : some properties of the scattering by a random potential (time delay distribution) and a study of the spectrum of a random potential on a bounded domain (the extreme value statistics of the eigenvalues). Then we mention several results concerning the diffusion on graphs, and more generally the spectral properties of the Schr\"odinger operator on graphs. The interest of spectral determinants as generating functions characterizing the diffusion on graphs is illustrated. Finally, we consider a two-dimensional model of a charged particle coupled to the random magnetic field due to magnetic vortices. We recall the connection between spectral properties of this model and winding functionals of the planar Brownian motion.Comment: Review article. 50 pages, 21 eps figures. Version 2: section 5.5 and conclusion added. Several references adde

Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks in 188 countries, 1990-2013: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

Background: The Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factor study 2013 (GBD 2013) is the first of a series of annual updates of the GBD. Risk factor quantification, particularly of modifiable risk factors, can help to identify emerging threats to population health and opportunities for prevention. The GBD 2013 provides a timely opportunity to update the comparative risk assessment with new data for exposure, relative risks, and evidence on the appropriate counterfactual risk distribution. Methods: Attributable deaths, years of life lost, years lived with disability, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) have been estimated for 79 risks or clusters of risks using the GBD 2010 methods. Risk-outcome pairs meeting explicit evidence criteria were assessed for 188 countries for the period 1990-2013 by age and sex using three inputs: risk exposure, relative risks, and the theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL). Risks are organised into a hierarchy with blocks of behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks at the first level of the hierarchy. The next level in the hierarchy includes nine clusters of related risks and two individual risks, with more detail provided at levels 3 and 4 of the hierarchy. Compared with GBD 2010, six new risk factors have been added: handwashing practices, occupational exposure to trichloroethylene, childhood wasting, childhood stunting, unsafe sex, and low glomerular filtration rate. For most risks, data for exposure were synthesised with a Bayesian metaregression method, DisMod-MR 2.0, or spatial-temporal Gaussian process regression. Relative risks were based on meta-regressions of published cohort and intervention studies. Attributable burden for clusters of risks and all risks combined took into account evidence on the mediation of some risks such as high body-mass index (BMI) through other risks such as high systolic blood pressure and high cholesterol. Findings: All risks combined account for 57·2% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 55·8-58·5) of deaths and 41·6% (40·1-43·0) of DALYs. Risks quantified account for 87·9% (86·5-89·3) of cardiovascular disease DALYs, ranging to a low of 0% for neonatal disorders and neglected tropical diseases and malaria. In terms of global DALYs in 2013, six risks or clusters of risks each caused more than 5% of DALYs: dietary risks accounting for 11·3 million deaths and 241·4 million DALYs, high systolic blood pressure for 10·4 million deaths and 208·1 million DALYs, child and maternal malnutrition for 1·7 million deaths and 176·9 million DALYs, tobacco smoke for 6·1 million deaths and 143·5 million DALYs, air pollution for 5·5 million deaths and 141·5 million DALYs, and high BMI for 4·4 million deaths and 134·0 million DALYs. Risk factor patterns vary across regions and countries and with time. In sub-Saharan Africa, the leading risk factors are child and maternal malnutrition, unsafe sex, and unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing. In women, in nearly all countries in the Americas, north Africa, and the Middle East, and in many other high-income countries, high BMI is the leading risk factor, with high systolic blood pressure as the leading risk in most of Central and Eastern Europe and south and east Asia. For men, high systolic blood pressure or tobacco use are the leading risks in nearly all high-income countries, in north Africa and the Middle East, Europe, and Asia. For men and women, unsafe sex is the leading risk in a corridor from Kenya to South Africa. Interpretation: Behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks can explain half of global mortality and more than one-third of global DALYs providing many opportunities for prevention. Of the larger risks, the attributable burden of high BMI has increased in the past 23 years. In view of the prominence of behavioural risk factors, behavioural and social science research on interventions for these risks should be strengthened. Many prevention and primary care policy options are available now to act on key risks

Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks, 1990-2015: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

Background: The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 provides an up-to-date synthesis of the evidence for risk factor exposure and the attributable burden of disease. By providing national and subnational assessments spanning the past 25 years, this study can inform debates on the importance of addressing risks in context. Methods: We used the comparative risk assessment framework developed for previous iterations of the Global Burden of Disease Study to estimate attributable deaths, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and trends in exposure by age group, sex, year, and geography for 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks from 1990 to 2015. This study included 388 risk-outcome pairs that met World Cancer Research Fund-defined criteria for convincing or probable evidence. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from randomised controlled trials, cohorts, pooled cohorts, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. We developed a metric that allows comparisons of exposure across risk factors—the summary exposure value. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk level, we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We decomposed trends in attributable burden into contributions from population growth, population age structure, risk exposure, and risk-deleted cause-specific DALY rates. We characterised risk exposure in relation to a Socio-demographic Index (SDI). Findings: Between 1990 and 2015, global exposure to unsafe sanitation, household air pollution, childhood underweight, childhood stunting, and smoking each decreased by more than 25%. Global exposure for several occupational risks, high body-mass index (BMI), and drug use increased by more than 25% over the same period. All risks jointly evaluated in 2015 accounted for 57·8% (95% CI 56·6–58·8) of global deaths and 41·2% (39·8–42·8) of DALYs. In 2015, the ten largest contributors to global DALYs among Level 3 risks were high systolic blood pressure (211·8 million [192·7 million to 231·1 million] global DALYs), smoking (148·6 million [134·2 million to 163·1 million]), high fasting plasma glucose (143·1 million [125·1 million to 163·5 million]), high BMI (120·1 million [83·8 million to 158·4 million]), childhood undernutrition (113·3 million [103·9 million to 123·4 million]), ambient particulate matter (103·1 million [90·8 million to 115·1 million]), high total cholesterol (88·7 million [74·6 million to 105·7 million]), household air pollution (85·6 million [66·7 million to 106·1 million]), alcohol use (85·0 million [77·2 million to 93·0 million]), and diets high in sodium (83·0 million [49·3 million to 127·5 million]). From 1990 to 2015, attributable DALYs declined for micronutrient deficiencies, childhood undernutrition, unsafe sanitation and water, and household air pollution; reductions in risk-deleted DALY rates rather than reductions in exposure drove these declines. Rising exposure contributed to notable increases in attributable DALYs from high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, occupational carcinogens, and drug use. Environmental risks and childhood undernutrition declined steadily with SDI; low physical activity, high BMI, and high fasting plasma glucose increased with SDI. In 119 countries, metabolic risks, such as high BMI and fasting plasma glucose, contributed the most attributable DALYs in 2015. Regionally, smoking still ranked among the leading five risk factors for attributable DALYs in 109 countries; childhood underweight and unsafe sex remained primary drivers of early death and disability in much of sub-Saharan Africa. Interpretation: Declines in some key environmental risks have contributed to declines in critical infectious diseases. Some risks appear to be invariant to SDI. Increasing risks, including high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, drug use, and some occupational exposures, contribute to rising burden from some conditions, but also provide opportunities for intervention. Some highly preventable risks, such as smoking, remain major causes of attributable DALYs, even as exposure is declining. Public policy makers need to pay attention to the risks that are increasingly major contributors to global burden. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Global, regional, and national age-sex specific all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 240 causes of death, 1990-2013: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

Background Up-to-date evidence on levels and trends for age-sex-specific all-cause and cause-specific mortality is essential for the formation of global, regional, and national health policies. In the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013) we estimated yearly deaths for 188 countries between 1990, and 2013. We used the results to assess whether there is epidemiological convergence across countries. Methods We estimated age-sex-specific all-cause mortality using the GBD 2010 methods with some refinements to improve accuracy applied to an updated database of vital registration, survey, and census data. We generally estimated cause of death as in the GBD 2010. Key improvements included the addition of more recent vital registration data for 72 countries, an updated verbal autopsy literature review, two new and detailed data systems for China, and more detail for Mexico, UK, Turkey, and Russia. We improved statistical models for garbage code redistribution. We used six different modelling strategies across the 240 causes; cause of death ensemble modelling (CODEm) was the dominant strategy for causes with sufficient information. Trends for Alzheimer's disease and other dementias were informed by meta-regression of prevalence studies. For pathogen-specific causes of diarrhoea and lower respiratory infections we used a counterfactual approach. We computed two measures of convergence (inequality) across countries: the average relative difference across all pairs of countries (Gini coefficient) and the average absolute difference across countries. To summarise broad findings, we used multiple decrement life-tables to decompose probabilities of death from birth to exact age 15 years, from exact age 15 years to exact age 50 years, and from exact age 50 years to exact age 75 years, and life expectancy at birth into major causes. For all quantities reported, we computed 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). We constrained cause-specific fractions within each age-sex-country-year group to sum to all-cause mortality based on draws from the uncertainty distributions. Findings Global life expectancy for both sexes increased from 65·3 years (UI 65·0-65·6) in 1990, to 71·5 years (UI 71·0-71·9) in 2013, while the number of deaths increased from 47·5 million (UI 46·8-48·2) to 54·9 million (UI 53·6-56·3) over the same interval. Global progress masked variation by age and sex: for children, average absolute differences between countries decreased but relative differences increased. For women aged 25-39 years and older than 75 years and for men aged 20-49 years and 65 years and older, both absolute and relative differences increased. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the prominent role of reductions in age-standardised death rates for cardiovascular diseases and cancers in high-income regions, and reductions in child deaths from diarrhoea, lower respiratory infections, and neonatal causes in low-income regions. HIV/AIDS reduced life expectancy in southern sub-Saharan Africa. For most communicable causes of death both numbers of deaths and age-standardised death rates fell whereas for most non-communicable causes, demographic shifts have increased numbers of deaths but decreased age-standardised death rates. Global deaths from injury increased by 10·7%, from 4·3 million deaths in 1990 to 4·8 million in 2013; but age-standardised rates declined over the same period by 21%. For some causes of more than 100 000 deaths per year in 2013, age-standardised death rates increased between 1990 and 2013, including HIV/AIDS, pancreatic cancer, atrial fibrillation and flutter, drug use disorders, diabetes, chronic kidney disease, and sickle-cell anaemias. Diarrhoeal diseases, lower respiratory infections, neonatal causes, and malaria are still in the top five causes of death in children younger than 5 years. The most important pathogens are rotavirus for diarrhoea and pneumococcus for lower respiratory infections. Country-specific probabilities of death over three phases of life were substantially varied between and within regions. Interpretation For most countries, the general pattern of reductions in age-sex specific mortality has been associated with a progressive shift towards a larger share of the remaining deaths caused by non-communicable disease and injuries. Assessing epidemiological convergence across countries depends on whether an absolute or relative measure of inequality is used. Nevertheless, age-standardised death rates for seven substantial causes are increasing, suggesting the potential for reversals in some countries. Important gaps exist in the empirical data for cause of death estimates for some countries; for example, no national data for India are available for the past decade. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Doctor of Philosophy

dissertationMuch scientific inquiry into the psychological and social issues surrounding age-related macular degeneration (AMD) has focused on the ways in which the condition is a catalyst for negative outcomes. However, enduring and learning from negative life events can offer a benefit never before experienced. One such possibility is called posttraumatic growth (PTG). The aims of this study were to (a) measure and describe the extent to which PTG occurs in a sample of older adults experiencing vision loss caused by AMD; (b) identify the demographic relationships with and correlates of PTG; (c) identify the roles of perceived stressfulness, depression, intrusive and deliberate rumination, social support, and religiosity in PTG; and (d) use semistructured, qualitative interviews to highlight exemplars of growth to better understand how the experience of struggling with vision loss may lead to growth among older adults with severe AMD. In this descriptive and correlational study we used a multimethod approach and cross-sectional design. Data collection occurred in two phases. First, 89 participants completed an interviewer-administered composite questionnaire of demographic questions, the Event-Related Rumination Inventory, Post-Traumatic Growth Inventory (PTGI), Geriatric Depression Scale, Lubben's Social Network Scale, two questions about perceived stressfulness, and a question about religiosity. Relationships between variables were examined using path analysis. The hypothesized model was proposed based on the posttraumatic growth theoretical model. Next, we conducted in-depth, semistructured interviews among 15 individuals who scored positively on the PTGI. The final path model indicated that deliberate rumination had a direct effect on PTG; intrusive rumination had indirect effects through deliberate rumination, and depression had indirect effects through social support and deliberate rumination. Qualitative responses cited past experience and resilience as possible reasons for lower overall growth in this sample. PTG resulting from the struggle with the challenges of AMD was a meaningful reality for some. These findings underscore the importance of supportive others and their role in reducing distress and fostering deliberate cognitive processing and eventual PTG. Interventions to promote positive outcomes such as PTG should focus on mitigating depression and intrusive rumination by increasing and enhancing social networks and fostering positive, deliberate cognitive processing

Complex Scapular Winging following Total Shoulder Arthroplasty in a Patient with Ehlers-Danlos Syndrome

This is a unique case of a female patient with features of classical and hypermobile types of Ehlers-Danlos syndrome (EDS) who developed complex scapular winging from spinal accessory and long thoracic neuropathies. These neurological problems became manifest after an uncomplicated total shoulder arthroplasty (TSA). The patient had a complex postoperative course with extensive work-up in addition to revision shoulder surgery and manipulations to treat shoulder stiffness. It was eventually suspected that the periscapular nerve impairments occurred during physical therapy sessions after her TSA. This interpretation was further supported by genetic evidence that, in addition to EDS, the patient had an unrecognized genetic propensity for nerve palsies from stretch or pressure (“hereditary neuropathy with liability to pressure palsies” (HNPP)). By two years after the TSA the neuropathies had only partially improved, leaving the patient with persistent scapular winging and shoulder weakness. With this case we alert surgeons and physical therapists that patients with EDS can have not only a complicated course after TSA, but rare concurrent conditions that can further increase the propensity of neurological injuries that result in compromised shoulder function