A pragmatic randomised controlled trial of the Welsh National Exercise Referral Scheme: protocol for trial and integrated economic and process evaluation

Background: The benefits to health of a physically active lifestyle are well established and there is evidence that a sedentary lifestyle plays a significant role in the onset and progression of chronic disease. Despite a recognised need for effective public health interventions encouraging sedentary people with a medical condition to become more active, there are few rigorous evaluations of their effectiveness. Following NICE guidance, the Welsh national exercise referral scheme was implemented within the context of a pragmatic randomised controlled trial. Methods/Design: The randomised controlled trial, with nested economic and process evaluations, recruited 2,104 inactive men and women aged 16+ with coronary heart disease (CHD) risk factors and/or mild to moderate depression, anxiety or stress. Participants were recruited from 12 local health boards in Wales and referred directly by health professionals working in a range of health care settings. Consenting participants were randomised to either a 16 week tailored exercise programme run by qualified exercise professionals at community sports centres (intervention), or received an information booklet on physical activity (control). A range of validated measures assessing physical activity, mental health, psycho-social processes and health economics were administered at 6 and 12 months, with the primary 12 month outcome measure being 7 day Physical Activity Recall. The process evaluation explored factors determining the effectiveness or otherwise of the scheme, whilst the economic evaluation determined the relative cost-effectiveness of the scheme in terms of public spending. Discussion: Evaluation of such a large scale national public health intervention presents methodological challenges in terms of trial design and implementation. This study was facilitated by early collaboration with social research and policy colleagues to develop a rigorous design which included an innovative approach to patient referral and trial recruitment, a comprehensive process evaluation examining intervention delivery and an integrated economic evaluation. This will allow a unique insight into the feasibility, effectiveness and cost effectiveness of a national exercise referral scheme for participants with CHD risk factors or mild to moderate anxiety, depression, or stress and provides a potential model for future policy evaluations. Trial registration: Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN4768044

Cross-national epidemiology of DSM-IV major depressive episode

Background: Major depression is one of the leading causes of disability worldwide, yet epidemiologic data are not available for many countries, particularly low- to middle-income countries. In this paper, we present data on the prevalence, impairment and demographic correlates of depression from 18 high and low-to middle-income countries in the World Mental Health Survey Initiative. Methods: Major depressive episodes (MDE) as defined by the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, fourth edition (DMS-IV) were evaluated in face-to-face interviews using the World Health Organization Composite International Diagnostic Interview (CIDI). Data from 18 countries were analyzed in this report (n = 89,037). All countries surveyed representative, population-based samples of adults. Results: The average lifetime and 12-month prevalence estimates of DSM-IV MDE were 14.6% and 5.5% in the ten high-income and 11.1% and 5.9% in the eight low- to middle-income countries. The average age of onset ascertained retrospectively was 25.7 in the high-income and 24.0 in low- to middle-income countries. Functional impairment was associated with recency of MDE. The female: male ratio was about 2: 1. In high-income countries, younger age was associated with higher 12-month prevalence; by contrast, in several low-to middle-income countries, older age was associated with greater likelihood of MDE. The strongest demographic correlate in high-income countries was being separated from a partner, and in low- to middle-income countries, was being divorced or widowed. Conclusions: MDE is a significant public-health concern across all regions of the world and is strongly linked to social conditions. Future research is needed to investigate the combination of demographic risk factors that are most strongly associated with MDE in the specific countries included in the WMH.(NIH/NIMH) United States National Institute of Mental Health[R01MH070884]John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur FoundationPfizer FoundationUSA Public Health Service[R13-MH066849]USA Public Health Service[R01-MH069864]USA Public Health Service[R01 DA016558](NIH) Fogarty International Center[FIRCA R03-TW006481]PAHO Pan American Health OrganizationEli Lilly & Company FoundationOrtho-McNeil Pharmaceutical, Inc.GlaxoSmithKlineSanofi-AventisBristol-Myers SquibbState of Brazil Research Foundation (FAPESP)[03/00204-3]Ministry of Social ProtectionEuropean Commission[QLG5-1999-01042]European Commission[SANCO 2004123]Piedmont Region (Italy)Fondo de Investigacion Sanitaria, Instituto de Salud Carlos III, Spain[FIS 00/0028]Spanish Ministerio de Ciencia y Tecnologia[SAF 2000-158-CE]Departament de Salut, Generalitat de Catalunya, SpainInstituto de Salud Carlos III[CIBER CB06/02/0046]Instituto de Salud Carlos III[RETICS RD06/0011 REM-TAP]Government of IndiaWHOMinistry of HealthIsrael National Institute for Health Policy and Health Services ResearchNational Insurance Institute of IsraelJapan Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare[H13-Shogai-023]Japan Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare[H14-Tokubetsu-026]Japan Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare[H16-Kokoro-013]Lebanese Ministry of Public HealthWHO (Lebanon)(NIH) Fogarty International, anonymous private donations to IDRAAC, LebanonJanssen CilagEli LillyRocheNovartisNational Institute of Psychiatry Ramon de la Fuente[INPRFMDIES 4280]CNPq National Council on Science and Technology[CONACyT-G30544-H]PanAmerican Health Organization (PAHO)New Zealand Ministry of Health, Alcohol Advisory CouncilHealth Research Council(NIH/NIMH) USA National Institute of Mental Health[R01-MH059575](NIH/NIMH) USA National Institute of Mental Health[RO1-MH61905]National Institute of Drug AbuseSouth African Department of HealthUniversity of MichiganNational Institute of Mental Health (NIH/NIMH)[U01-MH60220]National Institute of Drug Abuse (NIDA)Substance Abuse and Mental Health Services Administration (SAMHSA)Robert Wood Johnson Foundation (RWJF)[044708]John W. Alden TrustsAnalysis Group Inc.Eli Lilly CompanyEPI-QJohnson & Johnson PharmaceuticalsOrtho-McNeil Janssen Scientific AffairsPfizer Inc.Shire USA, Inc

Anthroposophic therapy for chronic depression: a four-year prospective cohort study

BACKGROUND: Depressive disorders are common, cause considerable disability, and do not always respond to standard therapy (psychotherapy, antidepressants). Anthroposophic treatment for depression differs from ordinary treatment in the use of artistic and physical therapies and special medication. We studied clinical outcomes of anthroposophic therapy for depression. METHODS: 97 outpatients from 42 medical practices in Germany participated in a prospective cohort study. Patients were aged 20–69 years and were referred to anthroposophic therapies (art, eurythmy movement exercises, or rhythmical massage) or started physician-provided anthroposophic therapy (counselling, medication) for depression: depressed mood, at least two of six further depressive symptoms, minimum duration six months, Center for Epidemiological Studies Depression Scale, German version (CES-D, range 0–60 points) of at least 24 points. Outcomes were CES-D (primary outcome) and SF-36 after 3, 6, 12, 18, 24, and 48 months. Data were collected from July 1998 to March 2005. RESULTS: Median number of art/eurythmy/massage sessions was 14 (interquartile range 12–22), median therapy duration was 137 (91–212) days. All outcomes improved significantly between baseline and all subsequent follow-ups. Improvements from baseline to 12 months were: CES-D from mean (standard deviation) 34.77 (8.21) to 19.55 (13.12) (p < 0.001), SF-36 Mental Component Summary from 26.11 (7.98) to 39.15 (12.08) (p < 0.001), and SF-36 Physical Component Summary from 43.78 (9.46) to 48.79 (9.00) (p < 0.001). All these improvements were maintained until last follow-up. At 12-month follow-up and later, 52%–56% of evaluable patients (35%–42% of all patients) were improved by at least 50% of baseline CES-D scores. CES-D improved similarly in patients not using antidepressants or psychotherapy during the first six study months (55% of patients). CONCLUSION: In outpatients with chronic depression, anthroposophic therapies were followed by long-term clinical improvement. Although the pre-post design of the present study does not allow for conclusions about comparative effectiveness, study findings suggest that the anthroposophic approach, with its recourse to non-verbal and artistic exercising therapies can be useful for patients motivated for such therapies

Evaluation of the HadGEM3-A simulations in view of detection and attribution of human influence on extreme events in Europe

A detailed analysis is carried out to assess the HadGEM3-A global atmospheric model skill in simulating extreme temperatures, precipitation and storm surges in Europe in the view of their attribution to human influence. The analysis is performed based on an ensemble of 15 atmospheric simulations forced with observed Sea Surface Temperature of the 54 year period 1960-2013. These simulations, together with dual simulations without human influence in the forcing, are intended to be used in weather and climate event attribution. The analysis investigates the main processes leading to extreme events, including atmospheric circulation patterns, their links with temperature extremes, land-atmosphere and troposphere-stratosphere interactions. It also compares observed and simulated variability, trends and generalized extreme value theory parameters for temperature and precipitation. One of the most striking findings is the ability of the model to capture North Atlantic atmospheric weather regimes as obtained from a cluster analysis of sea level pressure fields. The model also reproduces the main observed weather patterns responsible for temperature and precipitation extreme events. However, biases are found in many physical processes. Slightly excessive drying may be the cause of an overestimated summer interannual variability and too intense heat waves, especially in central/northern Europe. However, this does not seem to hinder proper simulation of summer temperature trends. Cold extremes appear well simulated, as well as the underlying blocking frequency and stratosphere-troposphere interactions. Extreme precipitation amounts are overestimated and too variable. The atmospheric conditions leading to storm surges were also examined in the Baltics region. There, simulated weather conditions appear not to be leading to strong enough storm surges, but winds were found in very good agreement with reanalyses. The performance in reproducing atmospheric weather patterns indicates that biases mainly originate from local and regional physical processes. This makes local bias adjustment meaningful for climate change attribution

Potential immunological consequences of pharmacological suppression of gastric acid production in patients with multiple sclerosis

Corticosteroids are standard treatment for patients with multiple sclerosis experiencing acute relapse. Because dyspeptic pain is a common side effect of this intervention, patients can be given a histamine receptor-2 antagonist, proton pump inhibitor or antacid to prevent or ameliorate this disturbance. Additionally, patients with multiple sclerosis may be taking these medications independent of corticosteroid treatment. Interventions for gastric disturbances can influence the activation state of the immune system, a principal mediator of pathology in multiple sclerosis. Although histamine release promotes inflammation, activation of the histamine receptor-2 can suppress a proinflammatory immune response, and blocking histamine receptor-2 with an antagonist could shift the balance more towards immune stimulation. Studies utilizing an animal model of multiple sclerosis indicate that histamine receptor-2 antagonists potentially augment disease activity in patients with multiple sclerosis. In contrast, proton pump inhibitors appear to favor immune suppression, but have not been studied in models of multiple sclerosis. Antacids, histamine receptor-2 antagonists and proton pump inhibitors also could alter the intestinal microflora, which may indirectly lead to immune stimulation. Additionally, elevated gastric pH can promote the vitamin B12 deficiency that patients with multiple sclerosis are at risk of developing. Here, we review possible roles of gastric acid inhibitors on immunopathogenic mechanisms associated with multiple sclerosis

Multi-messenger observations of a binary neutron star merger

On 2017 August 17 a binary neutron star coalescence candidate (later designated GW170817) with merger time 12:41:04 UTC was observed through gravitational waves by the Advanced LIGO and Advanced Virgo detectors. The Fermi Gamma-ray Burst Monitor independently detected a gamma-ray burst (GRB 170817A) with a time delay of ~1.7 s with respect to the merger time. From the gravitational-wave signal, the source was initially localized to a sky region of 31 deg2 at a luminosity distance of 40+8-8 Mpc and with component masses consistent with neutron stars. The component masses were later measured to be in the range 0.86 to 2.26 Mo. An extensive observing campaign was launched across the electromagnetic spectrum leading to the discovery of a bright optical transient (SSS17a, now with the IAU identification of AT 2017gfo) in NGC 4993 (at ~40 Mpc) less than 11 hours after the merger by the One- Meter, Two Hemisphere (1M2H) team using the 1 m Swope Telescope. The optical transient was independently detected by multiple teams within an hour. Subsequent observations targeted the object and its environment. Early ultraviolet observations revealed a blue transient that faded within 48 hours. Optical and infrared observations showed a redward evolution over ~10 days. Following early non-detections, X-ray and radio emission were discovered at the transient’s position ~9 and ~16 days, respectively, after the merger. Both the X-ray and radio emission likely arise from a physical process that is distinct from the one that generates the UV/optical/near-infrared emission. No ultra-high-energy gamma-rays and no neutrino candidates consistent with the source were found in follow-up searches. These observations support the hypothesis that GW170817 was produced by the merger of two neutron stars in NGC4993 followed by a short gamma-ray burst (GRB 170817A) and a kilonova/macronova powered by the radioactive decay of r-process nuclei synthesized in the ejecta

Anatomy of the sign-problem in heavy-dense QCD

QCD at finite densities of heavy quarks is investigated using the density-of-states method. The phase factor expectation value of the quark determinant is calculated to unprecedented precision as a function of the chemical potential. Results are validated using those from a reweighting approach where the latter can produce a significant signalto-noise ratio. We confirm the particle–hole symmetry at low temperatures, find a strong sign problem at intermediate values of the chemical potential, and an inverse Silver Blaze feature for chemical potentials close to the onset value: here, the phase-quenched theory underestimates the density of the full theory

Search for new phenomena in final states with an energetic jet and large missing transverse momentum in pp collisions at root s = 8 TeV with the ATLAS detector (vol 75, 299, 2015)

Results of a search for new phenomena in final states with an energetic jet and large missing transverse momentum are reported. The search uses 20.3 fb−1 of √s=8 TeV data collected in 2012 with the ATLAS detector at the LHC. Events are required to have at least one jet with pT&gt;120 GeV and no leptons. Nine signal regions are considered with increasing missing transverse momentum requirements between EmissT&gt;150 GeV and EmissT&gt;700 GeV. Good agreement is observed between the number of events in data and Standard Model expectations. The results are translated into exclusion limits on models with either large extra spatial dimensions, pair production of weakly interacting dark matter candidates, or production of very light gravitinos in a gauge-mediated supersymmetric model. In addition, limits on the production of an invisibly decaying Higgs-like boson leading to similar topologies in the final state are presented