Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks, 1990-2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

SummaryBackground The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 provides an up-to-date synthesis of the evidence for risk factor exposure and the attributable burden of disease. By providing national and subnational assessments spanning the past 25 years, this study can inform debates on the importance of addressing risks in context. Methods We used the comparative risk assessment framework developed for previous iterations of the Global Burden of Disease Study to estimate attributable deaths, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and trends in exposure by age group, sex, year, and geography for 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks from 1990 to 2015. This study included 388 risk-outcome pairs that met World Cancer Research Fund-defined criteria for convincing or probable evidence. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from randomised controlled trials, cohorts, pooled cohorts, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. We developed a metric that allows comparisons of exposure across risk factors—the summary exposure value. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk level, we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We decomposed trends in attributable burden into contributions from population growth, population age structure, risk exposure, and risk-deleted cause-specific DALY rates. We characterised risk exposure in relation to a Socio-demographic Index (SDI). Findings Between 1990 and 2015, global exposure to unsafe sanitation, household air pollution, childhood underweight, childhood stunting, and smoking each decreased by more than 25%. Global exposure for several occupational risks, high body-mass index (BMI), and drug use increased by more than 25% over the same period. All risks jointly evaluated in 2015 accounted for 57·8% (95% CI 56·6–58·8) of global deaths and 41·2% (39·8–42·8) of DALYs. In 2015, the ten largest contributors to global DALYs among Level 3 risks were high systolic blood pressure (211·8 million [192·7 million to 231·1 million] global DALYs), smoking (148·6 million [134·2 million to 163·1 million]), high fasting plasma glucose (143·1 million [125·1 million to 163·5 million]), high BMI (120·1 million [83·8 million to 158·4 million]), childhood undernutrition (113·3 million [103·9 million to 123·4 million]), ambient particulate matter (103·1 million [90·8 million to 115·1 million]), high total cholesterol (88·7 million [74·6 million to 105·7 million]), household air pollution (85·6 million [66·7 million to 106·1 million]), alcohol use (85·0 million [77·2 million to 93·0 million]), and diets high in sodium (83·0 million [49·3 million to 127·5 million]). From 1990 to 2015, attributable DALYs declined for micronutrient deficiencies, childhood undernutrition, unsafe sanitation and water, and household air pollution; reductions in risk-deleted DALY rates rather than reductions in exposure drove these declines. Rising exposure contributed to notable increases in attributable DALYs from high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, occupational carcinogens, and drug use. Environmental risks and childhood undernutrition declined steadily with SDI; low physical activity, high BMI, and high fasting plasma glucose increased with SDI. In 119 countries, metabolic risks, such as high BMI and fasting plasma glucose, contributed the most attributable DALYs in 2015. Regionally, smoking still ranked among the leading five risk factors for attributable DALYs in 109 countries; childhood underweight and unsafe sex remained primary drivers of early death and disability in much of sub-Saharan Africa. Interpretation Declines in some key environmental risks have contributed to declines in critical infectious diseases. Some risks appear to be invariant to SDI. Increasing risks, including high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, drug use, and some occupational exposures, contribute to rising burden from some conditions, but also provide opportunities for intervention. Some highly preventable risks, such as smoking, remain major causes of attributable DALYs, even as exposure is declining. Public policy makers need to pay attention to the risks that are increasingly major contributors to global burden. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Human milk and mucosal lacto- and galacto-N-biose synthesis by transgalactosylation and their prebiotic potential in Lactobacillus species

Lacto-N-biose (LNB) and galacto-N-biose (GNB) are major building blocks of free oligosaccharides and glycan moieties of glyco-complexes present in human milk and gastrointestinal mucosa. We have previously characterized the phospho-β-galactosidase GnbG from Lactobacillus casei BL23 that is involved in the metabolism of LNB and GNB. GnbG has been used here in transglycosylation reactions, and it showed the production of LNB and GNB with N-acetylglucosamine and N-acetylgalactosamine as acceptors, respectively. The reaction kinetics demonstrated that GnbG can convert 69 ± 4 and 71 ± 1 % of o-nitrophenyl-β-D-galactopyranoside into LNB and GNB, respectively. Those reactions were performed in a semi-preparative scale, and the synthesized disaccharides were purified. The maximum yield obtained for LNB was 10.7 ± 0.2 g/l and for GNB was 10.8 ± 0.3 g/l. NMR spectroscopy confirmed the molecular structures of both carbohydrates and the absence of reaction byproducts, which also supports that GnbG is specific for β1,3-glycosidic linkages. The purified sugars were subsequently tested for their potential prebiotic properties using Lactobacillus species. The results showed that LNB and GNB were fermented by the tested strains of L. casei, Lactobacillus rhamnosus (except L. rhamnosus strain ATCC 53103), Lactobacillus zeae, Lactobacillus gasseri, and Lactobacillus johnsonii. DNA hybridization experiments suggested that the metabolism of those disaccharides in 9 out of 10 L. casei strains, all L. rhamnosus strains and all L. zeae strains tested relies upon a phospho-β-galactosidase homologous to GnbG. The results presented here support the putative role of human milk oligosaccharides for selective enrichment of beneficial intestinal microbiota in breast-fed infants

Involvement of the V2 Vasopressin Receptor in Adaptation to Limited Water Supply

Mammals adapted to a great variety of habitats with different accessibility to water. In addition to changes in kidney morphology, e.g. the length of the loops of Henle, several hormone systems are involved in adaptation to limited water supply, among them the renal-neurohypophysial vasopressin/vasopressin receptor system. Comparison of over 80 mammalian V2 vasopressin receptor (V2R) orthologs revealed high structural and functional conservation of this key component involved in renal water reabsorption. Although many mammalian species have unlimited access to water there is no evidence for complete loss of V2R function indicating an essential role of V2R activity for survival even of those species. In contrast, several marsupial V2R orthologs show a significant increase in basal receptor activity. An increased vasopressin-independent V2R activity can be interpreted as a shift in the set point of the renal-neurohypophysial hormone circuit to realize sufficient water reabsorption already at low hormone levels. As found in other desert mammals arid-adapted marsupials show high urine osmolalities. The gain of basal V2R function in several marsupials may contribute to the increased urine concentration abilities and, therefore, provide an advantage to maintain water and electrolyte homeostasis under limited water supply conditions

Quantification of ocean heat uptake from changes in atmospheric O2 and CO2 composition

The ocean is the main source of thermal inertia in the climate system. Ocean heat uptake during recent decades has been quantified using ocean temperature measurements. However, these estimates all use the same imperfect ocean dataset and share additional uncertainty due to sparse coverage, especially before 2007. Here, we provide an independent estimate by using measurements of atmospheric oxygen (O2) and carbon dioxide (CO2) – levels of which increase as the ocean warms and releases gases – as a whole ocean thermometer. We show that the ocean gained 1.29 ± 0.79 × 1022 Joules of heat per year between 1991 and 2016, equivalent to a planetary energy imbalance of 0.80 ± 0.49 W watts per square metre of Earth’s surface. We also find that the ocean-warming effect that led to the outgassing of O2 and CO2 can be isolated from the direct effects of anthropogenic emissions and CO2 sinks. Our result – which relies on high-precision O2 atmospheric measurements dating back to 1991 – leverages an integrative Earth system approach and provides much needed independent confirmation of heat uptake estimated from ocean data

Perspectives and Integration in SOLAS Science

Why a chapter on Perspectives and Integration in SOLAS Science in this book? SOLAS science by its nature deals with interactions that occur: across a wide spectrum of time and space scales, involve gases and particles, between the ocean and the atmosphere, across many disciplines including chemistry, biology, optics, physics, mathematics, computing, socio-economics and consequently interactions between many different scientists and across scientific generations. This chapter provides a guide through the remarkable diversity of cross-cutting approaches and tools in the gigantic puzzle of the SOLAS realm. Here we overview the existing prime components of atmospheric and oceanic observing systems, with the acquisition of ocean–atmosphere observables either from in situ or from satellites, the rich hierarchy of models to test our knowledge of Earth System functioning, and the tremendous efforts accomplished over the last decade within the COST Action 735 and SOLAS Integration project frameworks to understand, as best we can, the current physical and biogeochemical state of the atmosphere and ocean commons. A few SOLAS integrative studies illustrate the full meaning of interactions, paving the way for even tighter connections between thematic fields. Ultimately, SOLAS research will also develop with an enhanced consideration of societal demand while preserving fundamental research coherency. The exchange of energy, gases and particles across the air-sea interface is controlled by a variety of biological, chemical and physical processes that operate across broad spatial and temporal scales. These processes influence the composition, biogeochemical and chemical properties of both the oceanic and atmospheric boundary layers and ultimately shape the Earth system response to climate and environmental change, as detailed in the previous four chapters. In this cross-cutting chapter we present some of the SOLAS achievements over the last decade in terms of integration, upscaling observational information from process-oriented studies and expeditionary research with key tools such as remote sensing and modelling. Here we do not pretend to encompass the entire legacy of SOLAS efforts but rather offer a selective view of some of the major integrative SOLAS studies that combined available pieces of the immense jigsaw puzzle. These include, for instance, COST efforts to build up global climatologies of SOLAS relevant parameters such as dimethyl sulphide, interconnection between volcanic ash and ecosystem response in the eastern subarctic North Pacific, optimal strategy to derive basin-scale CO2 uptake with good precision, or significant reduction of the uncertainties in sea-salt aerosol source functions. Predicting the future trajectory of Earth’s climate and habitability is the main task ahead. Some possible routes for the SOLAS scientific community to reach this overarching goal conclude the chapter

The formation of human populations in South and Central Asia

By sequencing 523 ancient humans, we show that the primary source of ancestry in modern South Asians is a prehistoric genetic gradient between people related to early hunter-gatherers of Iran and Southeast Asia. After the Indus Valley Civilization’s decline, its people mixed with individuals in the southeast to form one of the two main ancestral populations of South Asia, whose direct descendants live in southern India. Simultaneously, they mixed with descendants of Steppe pastoralists who, starting around 4000 years ago, spread via Central Asia to form the other main ancestral population. The Steppe ancestry in South Asia has the same profile as that in Bronze Age Eastern Europe, tracking a movement of people that affected both regions and that likely spread the distinctive features shared between Indo-Iranian and Balto-Slavic languages

The CARMENES search for exoplanets around M dwarfs High-resolution optical and near-infrared spectroscopy of 324 survey stars

The CARMENES radial velocity (RV) survey is observing 324 M dwarfs to search for any orbiting planets. In this paper, we present the survey sample by publishing one CARMENES spectrum for each M dwarf. These spectra cover the wavelength range 520–1710 nm at a resolution of at least R >80 000, and we measure its RV, Hα emission, and projected rotation velocity. We present an atlas of high-resolution M-dwarf spectra and compare the spectra to atmospheric models. To quantify the RV precision that can be achieved in low-mass stars over the CARMENES wavelength range, we analyze our empirical information on the RV precision from more than 6500 observations. We compare our high-resolution M-dwarf spectra to atmospheric models where we determine the spectroscopic RV information content, Q, and signal-to-noise ratio. We find that for all M-type dwarfs, the highest RV precision can be reached in the wavelength range 700–900 nm. Observations at longer wavelengths are equally precise only at the very latest spectral types (M8 and M9). We demonstrate that in this spectroscopic range, the large amount of absorption features compensates for the intrinsic faintness of an M7 star. To reach an RV precision of 1 m s−1 in very low mass M dwarfs at longer wavelengths likely requires the use of a 10 m class telescope. For spectral types M6 and earlier, the combination of a red visual and a near-infrared spectrograph is ideal to search for low-mass planets and to distinguish between planets and stellar variability. At a 4 m class telescope, an instrument like CARMENES has the potential to push the RV precision well below the typical jitter level of 3–4 m s−1

The mammals of Angola

Scientific investigations on the mammals of Angola started over 150 years ago, but information remains scarce and scattered, with only one recent published account. Here we provide a synthesis of the mammals of Angola based on a thorough survey of primary and grey literature, as well as recent unpublished records. We present a short history of mammal research, and provide brief information on each species known to occur in the country. Particular attention is given to endemic and near endemic species. We also provide a zoogeographic outline and information on the conservation of Angolan mammals. We found confirmed records for 291 native species, most of which from the orders Rodentia (85), Chiroptera (73), Carnivora (39), and Cetartiodactyla (33). There is a large number of endemic and near endemic species, most of which are rodents or bats. The large diversity of species is favoured by the wide range of habitats with contrasting environmental conditions, while endemism tends to be associated with unique physiographic settings such as the Angolan Escarpment. The mammal fauna of Angola includes 2 Critically Endangered, 2 Endangered, 11 Vulnerable, and 14 Near-Threatened species at the global scale. There are also 12 data deficient species, most of which are endemics or near endemics to the countryinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Multi-messenger observations of a binary neutron star merger

On 2017 August 17 a binary neutron star coalescence candidate (later designated GW170817) with merger time 12:41:04 UTC was observed through gravitational waves by the Advanced LIGO and Advanced Virgo detectors. The Fermi Gamma-ray Burst Monitor independently detected a gamma-ray burst (GRB 170817A) with a time delay of ~1.7 s with respect to the merger time. From the gravitational-wave signal, the source was initially localized to a sky region of 31 deg2 at a luminosity distance of 40+8-8 Mpc and with component masses consistent with neutron stars. The component masses were later measured to be in the range 0.86 to 2.26 Mo. An extensive observing campaign was launched across the electromagnetic spectrum leading to the discovery of a bright optical transient (SSS17a, now with the IAU identification of AT 2017gfo) in NGC 4993 (at ~40 Mpc) less than 11 hours after the merger by the One- Meter, Two Hemisphere (1M2H) team using the 1 m Swope Telescope. The optical transient was independently detected by multiple teams within an hour. Subsequent observations targeted the object and its environment. Early ultraviolet observations revealed a blue transient that faded within 48 hours. Optical and infrared observations showed a redward evolution over ~10 days. Following early non-detections, X-ray and radio emission were discovered at the transient’s position ~9 and ~16 days, respectively, after the merger. Both the X-ray and radio emission likely arise from a physical process that is distinct from the one that generates the UV/optical/near-infrared emission. No ultra-high-energy gamma-rays and no neutrino candidates consistent with the source were found in follow-up searches. These observations support the hypothesis that GW170817 was produced by the merger of two neutron stars in NGC4993 followed by a short gamma-ray burst (GRB 170817A) and a kilonova/macronova powered by the radioactive decay of r-process nuclei synthesized in the ejecta