Global, regional, and national cancer incidence, mortality, years of life lost, years lived with disability, and disability-Adjusted life-years for 29 cancer groups, 1990 to 2017 : A systematic analysis for the global burden of disease study

Importance: Cancer and other noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) are now widely recognized as a threat to global development. The latest United Nations high-level meeting on NCDs reaffirmed this observation and also highlighted the slow progress in meeting the 2011 Political Declaration on the Prevention and Control of Noncommunicable Diseases and the third Sustainable Development Goal. Lack of situational analyses, priority setting, and budgeting have been identified as major obstacles in achieving these goals. All of these have in common that they require information on the local cancer epidemiology. The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study is uniquely poised to provide these crucial data. Objective: To describe cancer burden for 29 cancer groups in 195 countries from 1990 through 2017 to provide data needed for cancer control planning. Evidence Review: We used the GBD study estimation methods to describe cancer incidence, mortality, years lived with disability, years of life lost, and disability-Adjusted life-years (DALYs). Results are presented at the national level as well as by Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite indicator of income, educational attainment, and total fertility rate. We also analyzed the influence of the epidemiological vs the demographic transition on cancer incidence. Findings: In 2017, there were 24.5 million incident cancer cases worldwide (16.8 million without nonmelanoma skin cancer [NMSC]) and 9.6 million cancer deaths. The majority of cancer DALYs came from years of life lost (97%), and only 3% came from years lived with disability. The odds of developing cancer were the lowest in the low SDI quintile (1 in 7) and the highest in the high SDI quintile (1 in 2) for both sexes. In 2017, the most common incident cancers in men were NMSC (4.3 million incident cases); tracheal, bronchus, and lung (TBL) cancer (1.5 million incident cases); and prostate cancer (1.3 million incident cases). The most common causes of cancer deaths and DALYs for men were TBL cancer (1.3 million deaths and 28.4 million DALYs), liver cancer (572000 deaths and 15.2 million DALYs), and stomach cancer (542000 deaths and 12.2 million DALYs). For women in 2017, the most common incident cancers were NMSC (3.3 million incident cases), breast cancer (1.9 million incident cases), and colorectal cancer (819000 incident cases). The leading causes of cancer deaths and DALYs for women were breast cancer (601000 deaths and 17.4 million DALYs), TBL cancer (596000 deaths and 12.6 million DALYs), and colorectal cancer (414000 deaths and 8.3 million DALYs). Conclusions and Relevance: The national epidemiological profiles of cancer burden in the GBD study show large heterogeneities, which are a reflection of different exposures to risk factors, economic settings, lifestyles, and access to care and screening. The GBD study can be used by policy makers and other stakeholders to develop and improve national and local cancer control in order to achieve the global targets and improve equity in cancer care. © 2019 American Medical Association. All rights reserved.Peer reviewe

Global burden of 369 diseases and injuries in 204 countries and territories, 1990–2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background: In an era of shifting global agendas and expanded emphasis on non-communicable diseases and injuries along with communicable diseases, sound evidence on trends by cause at the national level is essential. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) provides a systematic scientific assessment of published, publicly available, and contributed data on incidence, prevalence, and mortality for a mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive list of diseases and injuries. Methods: GBD estimates incidence, prevalence, mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) due to 369 diseases and injuries, for two sexes, and for 204 countries and territories. Input data were extracted from censuses, household surveys, civil registration and vital statistics, disease registries, health service use, air pollution monitors, satellite imaging, disease notifications, and other sources. Cause-specific death rates and cause fractions were calculated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model and spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression. Cause-specific deaths were adjusted to match the total all-cause deaths calculated as part of the GBD population, fertility, and mortality estimates. Deaths were multiplied by standard life expectancy at each age to calculate YLLs. A Bayesian meta-regression modelling tool, DisMod-MR 2.1, was used to ensure consistency between incidence, prevalence, remission, excess mortality, and cause-specific mortality for most causes. Prevalence estimates were multiplied by disability weights for mutually exclusive sequelae of diseases and injuries to calculate YLDs. We considered results in the context of the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite indicator of income per capita, years of schooling, and fertility rate in females younger than 25 years. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered 1000 draw values of the posterior distribution. Findings: Global health has steadily improved over the past 30 years as measured by age-standardised DALY rates. After taking into account population growth and ageing, the absolute number of DALYs has remained stable. Since 2010, the pace of decline in global age-standardised DALY rates has accelerated in age groups younger than 50 years compared with the 1990–2010 time period, with the greatest annualised rate of decline occurring in the 0–9-year age group. Six infectious diseases were among the top ten causes of DALYs in children younger than 10 years in 2019: lower respiratory infections (ranked second), diarrhoeal diseases (third), malaria (fifth), meningitis (sixth), whooping cough (ninth), and sexually transmitted infections (which, in this age group, is fully accounted for by congenital syphilis; ranked tenth). In adolescents aged 10–24 years, three injury causes were among the top causes of DALYs: road injuries (ranked first), self-harm (third), and interpersonal violence (fifth). Five of the causes that were in the top ten for ages 10–24 years were also in the top ten in the 25–49-year age group: road injuries (ranked first), HIV/AIDS (second), low back pain (fourth), headache disorders (fifth), and depressive disorders (sixth). In 2019, ischaemic heart disease and stroke were the top-ranked causes of DALYs in both the 50–74-year and 75-years-and-older age groups. Since 1990, there has been a marked shift towards a greater proportion of burden due to YLDs from non-communicable diseases and injuries. In 2019, there were 11 countries where non-communicable disease and injury YLDs constituted more than half of all disease burden. Decreases in age-standardised DALY rates have accelerated over the past decade in countries at the lower end of the SDI range, while improvements have started to stagnate or even reverse in countries with higher SDI. Interpretation: As disability becomes an increasingly large component of disease burden and a larger component of health expenditure, greater research and developm nt investment is needed to identify new, more effective intervention strategies. With a rapidly ageing global population, the demands on health services to deal with disabling outcomes, which increase with age, will require policy makers to anticipate these changes. The mix of universal and more geographically specific influences on health reinforces the need for regular reporting on population health in detail and by underlying cause to help decision makers to identify success stories of disease control to emulate, as well as opportunities to improve. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2020 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 licens

Thermal load effects on fatigue life of a cracked railway wheel

AbstractIn this paper, fatigue life of a cracked railway wheel under thermo-mechanical loads is studied. For this purpose a FE model of a wheel, with two brake shoes and a portion of rail is created and suitable loads and boundary conditions are applied to the model. It is assumed that the wheel has contained an elliptical crack in the definite depth of the tread surface and thermalloads are determined by modeling the contact of the rail-wheel and two brake blocks. In order to investigate the thermalloads effect on the fatigue life of the cracked wheel, analyses areperformed in two cases: mechanical analysis and thermo-mechanical analysis; while difference between them, shows thermal load effects and its importance. In this work the wheel rotation on rail is modeled and a 3D FE model for determination of rail-wheel contact pressure is used while in many of the previous investigations, either rolling wasn't modeled or its effect was simplified as a translating pressure distribution along the rail-wheel contact region and also the Hertz contact theory had used for determination of contact pressure in wheel- rail interface. Finally, effects of angular velocity on fatigue life of a cracked wheel under -mechanical and mechanical loads are shown. The obtained results confirm the important influences of thermal loads on the wheel fatigue life in all mentioned cases that are studied in this article

Study on high-speed train nose under frontal and side impact

Frontal and side impacts are both important aspects in designing of a crashworthy high-speed train nose. Therefore a proper design should be considered both conditions and, compatibility should be made among the features that improve train nose crashworthiness under different accident situations at the same time. In order to achieve this goal according to aerodynamic rules there is not many options for changing the external shape of high-speed train nose therefore, a systematic study has been conducted to examine possible strategies to design crashworthy internal structure for the high-speed train nose that provide the best features under both frontal and side impact conditions. For this purpose, various multi-layer noses are studied and the best internal layer geometry is proposed. At the last step effects of foam usage in different spaces between internal and external layers of nose is shown

A New Combined Model for considering the Plasticity Effects in Contacting Asperities

Wheel-rail contact in railway engineering is an important topic. Due to different materials and surface roughness of wheel and rail, the contact characteristics can alter significantly. This article aims to investigate the effects of surface roughness and asperities on the contact parameters such as contact area, contact force, and contact stiffness. The lateral contacts between asperities are assumed to be the general contact condition. Azimuthal and contact angles distributions are assumed to be spherical harmonic distribution. This assumption is compatible with the asperity distribution on the wheel and the rail surfaces. Besides, a new combined model is developed to cover the stick-slip and the plasticity effects in contacting asperities. The results of the presented model offer very good estimations for the asperities contact characteristics, especially at the small-contact area and separation where high-contact pressure and plastic deformation usually exist

Modeling temperature evolution of wheel flat during formation

Predicting temperature evolution of sliding bodies plays a key role in many industrial designs. Temperature-dependent material properties, microstructure evolution of material while heating and quenching, and residual stress comprise these factors importance. Despite existing theoretical, numerical, and experimental methods for predicting surface temperature of sliding bodies, there are some restrictions relating to each one. This paper aims to present a strategy and numerical method for finding the temperature evolution of sliding bodies with arbitrary geometry of the contact patch. Preserving generality, temperature evolution of sliding railway flat wheels is the main problem of this study. A finite element model (FEM) is developed with ANSYS APDL software (Canonsburg, PA, USA). The model is validated with existing analytical formulas in steady state and transient cases and a good agreement is achieved. Six real cases from full-scale field tests are considered and a comparison is made between the results. As an application of the method, the obtained time-history of surface temperature is applied to a 3D FE model of a flat wheel as a boundary condition

Analytical formulation for temperature evolution in flat wheel-rail sliding surfaces

Studying the temperature evolution of the thermally affected zone (TAZ) of sliding surfaces is crucial because of its influence on microstructural evolution, wear, and fatigue. Due to the complexity of thermal analysis of sliding bodies, relationships that predict their surface temperature evolution are very helpful because they can be used as time-dependent boundary conditions; this makes the thermal analysis of sliding bodies independent. In this paper, by assuming thermal contact conductance (TCC) at the sliding common surface, the differential equation governing the thermal analysis of the wheel-rail sliding is solved throughout a wheel flat. The temperature evolution of wheel and rail surfaces and the heat partitioning factor are among the main results. Finally, the equations obtained for wheel and rail surface temperatures are applied to a freight wagon and a passenger car as two real cases. The results are discussed and compared to existing data in the literature and a solid agreement is achieved.(OLD) MSE-3Materials Science and Engineerin