Using the past to constrain the future: how the palaeorecord can improve estimates of global warming

Climate sensitivity is defined as the change in global mean equilibrium temperature after a doubling of atmospheric CO2 concentration and provides a simple measure of global warming. An early estimate of climate sensitivity, 1.5-4.5{\deg}C, has changed little subsequently, including the latest assessment by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The persistence of such large uncertainties in this simple measure casts doubt on our understanding of the mechanisms of climate change and our ability to predict the response of the climate system to future perturbations. This has motivated continued attempts to constrain the range with climate data, alone or in conjunction with models. The majority of studies use data from the instrumental period (post-1850) but recent work has made use of information about the large climate changes experienced in the geological past. In this review, we first outline approaches that estimate climate sensitivity using instrumental climate observations and then summarise attempts to use the record of climate change on geological timescales. We examine the limitations of these studies and suggest ways in which the power of the palaeoclimate record could be better used to reduce uncertainties in our predictions of climate sensitivity.Comment: The final, definitive version of this paper has been published in Progress in Physical Geography, 31(5), 2007 by SAGE Publications Ltd, All rights reserved. \c{opyright} 2007 Edwards, Crucifix and Harriso

Anisotropic flow of charged hadrons, pions and (anti-)protons measured at high transverse momentum in Pb-Pb collisions at sNN=2.76\sqrt{s_{\rm NN}}=2.76 TeV

The elliptic, $v_2$, triangular, $v_3$, and quadrangular, $v_4$, azimuthal anisotropic flow coefficients are measured for unidentified charged particles, pions and (anti-)protons in Pb-Pb collisions at $\sqrt{s_{\rm NN}} = 2.76$ TeV with the ALICE detector at the Large Hadron Collider. Results obtained with the event plane and four-particle cumulant methods are reported for the pseudo-rapidity range $|\eta|<0.8$ at different collision centralities and as a function of transverse momentum, $p_{\rm T}$, out to $p_{\rm T}=20$ GeV/$c$. The observed non-zero elliptic and triangular flow depends only weakly on transverse momentum for $p_{\rm T}>8$ GeV/$c$. The small $p_{\rm T}$ dependence of the difference between elliptic flow results obtained from the event plane and four-particle cumulant methods suggests a common origin of flow fluctuations up to $p_{\rm T}=8$ GeV/$c$. The magnitude of the (anti-)proton elliptic and triangular flow is larger than that of pions out to at least $p_{\rm T}=8$ GeV/$c$ indicating that the particle type dependence persists out to high $p_{\rm T}$.Comment: 16 pages, 5 captioned figures, authors from page 11, published version, figures at http://aliceinfo.cern.ch/ArtSubmission/node/186

Centrality dependence of charged particle production at large transverse momentum in Pb-Pb collisions at sNN=2.76\sqrt{s_{\rm{NN}}} = 2.76 TeV

The inclusive transverse momentum ($p_{\rm T}$) distributions of primary charged particles are measured in the pseudo-rapidity range $|\eta|<0.8$ as a function of event centrality in Pb-Pb collisions at $\sqrt{s_{\rm{NN}}}=2.76$ TeV with ALICE at the LHC. The data are presented in the $p_{\rm T}$ range $0.15<p_{\rm T}<50$ GeV/$c$ for nine centrality intervals from 70-80% to 0-5%. The Pb-Pb spectra are presented in terms of the nuclear modification factor $R_{\rm{AA}}$ using a pp reference spectrum measured at the same collision energy. We observe that the suppression of high-$p_{\rm T}$ particles strongly depends on event centrality. In central collisions (0-5%) the yield is most suppressed with $R_{\rm{AA}}\approx0.13$ at $p_{\rm T}=6$-7 GeV/$c$. Above $p_{\rm T}=7$ GeV/$c$, there is a significant rise in the nuclear modification factor, which reaches $R_{\rm{AA}} \approx0.4$ for $p_{\rm T}>30$ GeV/$c$. In peripheral collisions (70-80%), the suppression is weaker with $R_{\rm{AA}} \approx 0.7$ almost independently of $p_{\rm T}$. The measured nuclear modification factors are compared to other measurements and model calculations.Comment: 17 pages, 4 captioned figures, 2 tables, authors from page 12, published version, figures at http://aliceinfo.cern.ch/ArtSubmission/node/284

Measurement of charm production at central rapidity in proton-proton collisions at s=2.76\sqrt{s} = 2.76 TeV

The $p_{\rm T}$-differential production cross sections of the prompt (B feed-down subtracted) charmed mesons D$^0$, D$^+$, and D$^{*+}$ in the rapidity range $|y|<0.5$, and for transverse momentum $1< p_{\rm T} <12$ GeV/$c$, were measured in proton-proton collisions at $\sqrt{s} = 2.76$ TeV with the ALICE detector at the Large Hadron Collider. The analysis exploited the hadronic decays D$^0 \rightarrow$K$\pi$, D$^+ \rightarrow$K$\pi\pi$, D$^{*+} \rightarrow$D$^0\pi$, and their charge conjugates, and was performed on a $L_{\rm int} = 1.1$ nb$^{-1}$ event sample collected in 2011 with a minimum-bias trigger. The total charm production cross section at $\sqrt{s} = 2.76$ TeV and at 7 TeV was evaluated by extrapolating to the full phase space the $p_{\rm T}$-differential production cross sections at $\sqrt{s} = 2.76$ TeV and our previous measurements at $\sqrt{s} = 7$ TeV. The results were compared to existing measurements and to perturbative-QCD calculations. The fraction of cdbar D mesons produced in a vector state was also determined.Comment: 20 pages, 5 captioned figures, 4 tables, authors from page 15, published version, figures at http://aliceinfo.cern.ch/ArtSubmission/node/307

Particle-yield modification in jet-like azimuthal di-hadron correlations in Pb-Pb collisions at sNN\sqrt{s_{\rm NN}} = 2.76 TeV

The yield of charged particles associated with high-$p_{\rm T}$ trigger particles ($8 < p_{\rm T} < 15$ GeV/$c$) is measured with the ALICE detector in Pb-Pb collisions at $\sqrt{s_{\rm NN}}$ = 2.76 TeV relative to proton-proton collisions at the same energy. The conditional per-trigger yields are extracted from the narrow jet-like correlation peaks in azimuthal di-hadron correlations. In the 5% most central collisions, we observe that the yield of associated charged particles with transverse momenta $p_{\rm T}> 3$ GeV/$c$ on the away-side drops to about 60% of that observed in pp collisions, while on the near-side a moderate enhancement of 20-30% is found.Comment: 15 pages, 2 captioned figures, 1 table, authors from page 10, published version, figures at http://aliceinfo.cern.ch/ArtSubmission/node/350

A median fin derived from the lateral plate mesoderm and the origin of paired fins

The development of paired appendages was a key innovation during evolution and facilitated the aquatic to terrestrial transition of vertebrates. Largely derived from the lateral plate mesoderm (LPM), one hypothesis for the evolution of paired fins invokes derivation from unpaired median fins via a pair of lateral fin folds located between pectoral and pelvic fin territories1. Whilst unpaired and paired fins exhibit similar structural and molecular characteristics, no definitive evidence exists for paired lateral fin folds in larvae or adults of any extant or extinct species. As unpaired fin core components are regarded as exclusively derived from paraxial mesoderm, any transition presumes both co-option of a fin developmental programme to the LPM and bilateral duplication2. Here, we identify that the larval zebrafish unpaired pre-anal fin fold (PAFF) is derived from the LPM and thus may represent a developmental intermediate between median and paired fins. We trace the contribution of LPM to the PAFF in both cyclostomes and gnathostomes, supporting the notion that this is an ancient trait of vertebrates. Finally, we observe that the PAFF can be bifurcated by increasing bone morphogenetic protein signalling, generating LPM-derived paired fin folds. Our work provides evidence that lateral fin folds may have existed as embryonic anlage for elaboration to paired fins

Associations of autozygosity with a broad range of human phenotypes

In many species, the offspring of related parents suffer reduced reproductive success, a phenomenon known as inbreeding depression. In humans, the importance of this effect has remained unclear, partly because reproduction between close relatives is both rare and frequently associated with confounding social factors. Here, using genomic inbreeding coefficients (F-ROH) for >1.4 million individuals, we show that F-ROH is significantly associated (p <0.0005) with apparently deleterious changes in 32 out of 100 traits analysed. These changes are associated with runs of homozygosity (ROH), but not with common variant homozygosity, suggesting that genetic variants associated with inbreeding depression are predominantly rare. The effect on fertility is striking: F-ROH equivalent to the offspring of first cousins is associated with a 55% decrease [95% CI 44-66%] in the odds of having children. Finally, the effects of F-ROH are confirmed within full-sibling pairs, where the variation in F-ROH is independent of all environmental confounding.Peer reviewe

Centrality Dependence Of The Pseudorapidity Density Distribution For Charged Particles In Pb-pb Collisions At √snn=2.76tev

7264/Mai61062

Long-range Angular Correlations On The Near And Away Side In P-pb Collisions At √snn=5.02 Tev

7191/Mar294