Using molecular data for epidemiological inference: assessing the prevalence of Trypanosoma brucei rhodesiense in Tsetse in Serengeti, Tanzania

Background: Measuring the prevalence of transmissible Trypanosoma brucei rhodesiense in tsetse populations is essential for understanding transmission dynamics, assessing human disease risk and monitoring spatio-temporal trends and the impact of control interventions. Although an important epidemiological variable, identifying flies which carry transmissible infections is difficult, with challenges including low prevalence, presence of other trypanosome species in the same fly, and concurrent detection of immature non-transmissible infections. Diagnostic tests to measure the prevalence of T. b. rhodesiense in tsetse are applied and interpreted inconsistently, and discrepancies between studies suggest this value is not consistently estimated even to within an order of magnitude. Methodology/Principal Findings: Three approaches were used to estimate the prevalence of transmissible Trypanosoma brucei s.l. and T. b. rhodesiense in Glossina swynnertoni and G. pallidipes in Serengeti National Park, Tanzania: (i) dissection/microscopy; (ii) PCR on infected tsetse midguts; and (iii) inference from a mathematical model. Using dissection/microscopy the prevalence of transmissible T. brucei s.l. was 0% (95% CI 0–0.085) for G. swynnertoni and 0% (0–0.18) G. pallidipes; using PCR the prevalence of transmissible T. b. rhodesiense was 0.010% (0–0.054) and 0.0089% (0–0.059) respectively, and by model inference 0.0064% and 0.00085% respectively. Conclusions/Significance: The zero prevalence result by dissection/microscopy (likely really greater than zero given the results of other approaches) is not unusual by this technique, often ascribed to poor sensitivity. The application of additional techniques confirmed the very low prevalence of T. brucei suggesting the zero prevalence result was attributable to insufficient sample size (despite examination of 6000 tsetse). Given the prohibitively high sample sizes required to obtain meaningful results by dissection/microscopy, PCR-based approaches offer the current best option for assessing trypanosome prevalence in tsetse but inconsistencies in relating PCR results to transmissibility highlight the need for a consensus approach to generate meaningful and comparable data

Modelling entomological-climatic interactions of Plasmodium falciparum malaria transmission in two Colombian endemic-regions: contributions to a National Malaria Early Warning System

BACKGROUND: Malaria has recently re-emerged as a public health burden in Colombia. Although the problem seems to be climate-driven, there remain significant gaps of knowledge in the understanding of the complexity of malaria transmission, which have motivated attempts to develop a comprehensive model. METHODS: The mathematical tool was applied to represent Plasmodium falciparum malaria transmission in two endemic-areas. Entomological exogenous variables were estimated through field campaigns and laboratory experiments. Availability of breeding places was included towards representing fluctuations in vector densities. Diverse scenarios, sensitivity analyses and instabilities cases were considered during experimentation-validation process. RESULTS: Correlation coefficients and mean square errors between observed and modelled incidences reached 0.897–0.668 (P > 0.95) and 0.0002–0.0005, respectively. Temperature became the most relevant climatic parameter driving the final incidence. Accordingly, malaria outbreaks are possible during the favourable epochs following the onset of El Niño warm events. Sporogonic and gonotrophic cycles showed to be the entomological key-variables controlling the transmission potential of mosquitoes' population. Simulation results also showed that seasonality of vector density becomes an important factor towards understanding disease transmission. CONCLUSION: The model constitutes a promising tool to deepen the understanding of the multiple interactions related to malaria transmission conducive to outbreaks. In the foreseeable future it could be implemented as a tool to diagnose possible dynamical patterns of malaria incidence under several scenarios, as well as a decision-making tool for the early detection and control of outbreaks. The model will be also able to be merged with forecasts of El Niño events to provide a National Malaria Early Warning System

3D Profile-Based Approach to Proteome-Wide Discovery of Novel Human Chemokines

Chemokines are small secreted proteins with important roles in immune responses. They consist of a conserved three-dimensional (3D) structure, so-called IL8-like chemokine fold, which is supported by disulfide bridges characteristic of this protein family. Sequence- and profile-based computational methods have been proficient in discovering novel chemokines by making use of their sequence-conserved cysteine patterns. However, it has been recently shown that some chemokines escaped annotation by these methods due to low sequence similarity to known chemokines and to different arrangement of cysteines in sequence and in 3D. Innovative methods overcoming the limitations of current techniques may allow the discovery of new remote homologs in the still functionally uncharacterized fraction of the human genome. We report a novel computational approach for proteome-wide identification of remote homologs of the chemokine family that uses fold recognition techniques in combination with a scaffold-based automatic mapping of disulfide bonds to define a 3D profile of the chemokine protein family. By applying our methodology to all currently uncharacterized human protein sequences, we have discovered two novel proteins that, without having significant sequence similarity to known chemokines or characteristic cysteine patterns, show strong structural resemblance to known anti-HIV chemokines. Detailed computational analysis and experimental structural investigations based on mass spectrometry and circular dichroism support our structural predictions and highlight several other chemokine-like features. The results obtained support their functional annotation as putative novel chemokines and encourage further experimental characterization. The identification of remote homologs of human chemokines may provide new insights into the molecular mechanisms causing pathologies such as cancer or AIDS, and may contribute to the development of novel treatments. Besides, the genome-wide applicability of our methodology based on 3D protein family profiles may open up new possibilities for improving and accelerating protein function annotation processes

Prediction of cis-regulatory elements controlling genes differentially expressed by retinal and choroidal vascular endothelial cells

Cultured endothelial cells of the human retina and choroid demonstrate distinct patterns of gene expression. We hypothesized that differential gene expression reflected differences in the interactions of transcription factors and respective cis-regulatory motifs(s) in these two endothelial cell subpopulations, recognizing that motifs often exist as modules. We tested this hypothesis in silico by using TRANSFAC Professional and CisModule to identify cis-regulatory motifs and modules in genes that were differentially expressed by human retinal versus choroidal endothelial cells, as identified by analysis of a microarray data set. Motifs corresponding to eight transcription factors were significantly (p < 0.05) differentially abundant in genes that were relatively highly expressed in retinal (i.e., glucocorticoid receptor, high mobility group AT-hook 1, heat shock transcription factor 1, p53, vitamin D receptor) or choroidal (i.e., transcription factor E2F, Yin Yang 1, zinc finger 5) endothelial cells. Predicted cis-regulatory modules were quite different for these two groups of genes. Our findings raise the possibility of exploiting specific cis-regulatory motifs to target therapy at the ocular endothelial cells subtypes responsible for neovascular age-related macular degeneration or proliferative diabetic retinopathy

Global patient outcomes after elective surgery: prospective cohort study in 27 low-, middle- and high-income countries.

BACKGROUND: As global initiatives increase patient access to surgical treatments, there remains a need to understand the adverse effects of surgery and define appropriate levels of perioperative care. METHODS: We designed a prospective international 7-day cohort study of outcomes following elective adult inpatient surgery in 27 countries. The primary outcome was in-hospital complications. Secondary outcomes were death following a complication (failure to rescue) and death in hospital. Process measures were admission to critical care immediately after surgery or to treat a complication and duration of hospital stay. A single definition of critical care was used for all countries. RESULTS: A total of 474 hospitals in 19 high-, 7 middle- and 1 low-income country were included in the primary analysis. Data included 44 814 patients with a median hospital stay of 4 (range 2-7) days. A total of 7508 patients (16.8%) developed one or more postoperative complication and 207 died (0.5%). The overall mortality among patients who developed complications was 2.8%. Mortality following complications ranged from 2.4% for pulmonary embolism to 43.9% for cardiac arrest. A total of 4360 (9.7%) patients were admitted to a critical care unit as routine immediately after surgery, of whom 2198 (50.4%) developed a complication, with 105 (2.4%) deaths. A total of 1233 patients (16.4%) were admitted to a critical care unit to treat complications, with 119 (9.7%) deaths. Despite lower baseline risk, outcomes were similar in low- and middle-income compared with high-income countries. CONCLUSIONS: Poor patient outcomes are common after inpatient surgery. Global initiatives to increase access to surgical treatments should also address the need for safe perioperative care. STUDY REGISTRATION: ISRCTN5181700

Antiinflammatory Therapy with Canakinumab for Atherosclerotic Disease

Background: Experimental and clinical data suggest that reducing inflammation without affecting lipid levels may reduce the risk of cardiovascular disease. Yet, the inflammatory hypothesis of atherothrombosis has remained unproved. Methods: We conducted a randomized, double-blind trial of canakinumab, a therapeutic monoclonal antibody targeting interleukin-1β, involving 10,061 patients with previous myocardial infarction and a high-sensitivity C-reactive protein level of 2 mg or more per liter. The trial compared three doses of canakinumab (50 mg, 150 mg, and 300 mg, administered subcutaneously every 3 months) with placebo. The primary efficacy end point was nonfatal myocardial infarction, nonfatal stroke, or cardiovascular death. RESULTS: At 48 months, the median reduction from baseline in the high-sensitivity C-reactive protein level was 26 percentage points greater in the group that received the 50-mg dose of canakinumab, 37 percentage points greater in the 150-mg group, and 41 percentage points greater in the 300-mg group than in the placebo group. Canakinumab did not reduce lipid levels from baseline. At a median follow-up of 3.7 years, the incidence rate for the primary end point was 4.50 events per 100 person-years in the placebo group, 4.11 events per 100 person-years in the 50-mg group, 3.86 events per 100 person-years in the 150-mg group, and 3.90 events per 100 person-years in the 300-mg group. The hazard ratios as compared with placebo were as follows: in the 50-mg group, 0.93 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.80 to 1.07; P = 0.30); in the 150-mg group, 0.85 (95% CI, 0.74 to 0.98; P = 0.021); and in the 300-mg group, 0.86 (95% CI, 0.75 to 0.99; P = 0.031). The 150-mg dose, but not the other doses, met the prespecified multiplicity-adjusted threshold for statistical significance for the primary end point and the secondary end point that additionally included hospitalization for unstable angina that led to urgent revascularization (hazard ratio vs. placebo, 0.83; 95% CI, 0.73 to 0.95; P = 0.005). Canakinumab was associated with a higher incidence of fatal infection than was placebo. There was no significant difference in all-cause mortality (hazard ratio for all canakinumab doses vs. placebo, 0.94; 95% CI, 0.83 to 1.06; P = 0.31). Conclusions: Antiinflammatory therapy targeting the interleukin-1β innate immunity pathway with canakinumab at a dose of 150 mg every 3 months led to a significantly lower rate of recurrent cardiovascular events than placebo, independent of lipid-level lowering. (Funded by Novartis; CANTOS ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT01327846.

Multi-messenger observations of a binary neutron star merger

On 2017 August 17 a binary neutron star coalescence candidate (later designated GW170817) with merger time 12:41:04 UTC was observed through gravitational waves by the Advanced LIGO and Advanced Virgo detectors. The Fermi Gamma-ray Burst Monitor independently detected a gamma-ray burst (GRB 170817A) with a time delay of ~1.7 s with respect to the merger time. From the gravitational-wave signal, the source was initially localized to a sky region of 31 deg2 at a luminosity distance of 40+8-8 Mpc and with component masses consistent with neutron stars. The component masses were later measured to be in the range 0.86 to 2.26 Mo. An extensive observing campaign was launched across the electromagnetic spectrum leading to the discovery of a bright optical transient (SSS17a, now with the IAU identification of AT 2017gfo) in NGC 4993 (at ~40 Mpc) less than 11 hours after the merger by the One- Meter, Two Hemisphere (1M2H) team using the 1 m Swope Telescope. The optical transient was independently detected by multiple teams within an hour. Subsequent observations targeted the object and its environment. Early ultraviolet observations revealed a blue transient that faded within 48 hours. Optical and infrared observations showed a redward evolution over ~10 days. Following early non-detections, X-ray and radio emission were discovered at the transient’s position ~9 and ~16 days, respectively, after the merger. Both the X-ray and radio emission likely arise from a physical process that is distinct from the one that generates the UV/optical/near-infrared emission. No ultra-high-energy gamma-rays and no neutrino candidates consistent with the source were found in follow-up searches. These observations support the hypothesis that GW170817 was produced by the merger of two neutron stars in NGC4993 followed by a short gamma-ray burst (GRB 170817A) and a kilonova/macronova powered by the radioactive decay of r-process nuclei synthesized in the ejecta

Gender differences in the association of perceived social support and social network with self-rated health status among older adults: a population-based study in Brazil

BACKGROUND: Older adults are more likely to live alone, because they may have been predeceased by their spouse and friends. Social interaction could also be reduced in this age group due by limited mobility caused by chronic conditions. Therefore, aging is frequently accompanied by reduced social support, which might affect health status. Little is known about the role of gender in the relationship between social support and health in older adults. Hence, the present study tests the hypothesis that gender differences exist in the relationship between perceived social support, social network, and self-rated health (SRH) among older adults. METHODS: A cross-sectional study using two-stage probabilistic sampling recruited 3,649 individuals aged 60 years and above. Data were collected during the national influenza vaccination campaign in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, in 2006. Individual interviews collected information on SRH, perceived social support, social network, and other covariates. Multivariate logistic regression analyses using nested models were conducted separately for males and females. Independent variables were organised into six blocks: (1) perceived social support and social network, (2) age group, (3) socioeconomic characteristics, (4) health-related behaviours, (5) use of health care services, (6) functional status measures and somatic health problems. RESULTS: Older men who did not participate in group activities were more likely to report poor SRH compared to those who did, (OR = 1.63; 95% CI = 1.16–2.30). Low perceived social support predicted the probability of poor SRH in women (OR = 1.64; 95% CI = 1.16–2.34). Poor SRH was associated with low age, low income, not working, poor functional capacity, and depression in both men and women. More somatic health problems were associated with poor SRH in women. CONCLUSIONS: The association between social interactions and SRH varies between genders. Low social network involvement is associated with poor SRH in older men, whereas low perceived social support is associated with poor SRH in older women. The hypothesis that the relationship of perceived social support and social networks to SRH differs according to gender has been confirmed