Bayesian time series analysis of terrestrial impact cratering

Giant impacts by comets and asteroids have probably had an important influence on terrestrial biological evolution. We know of around 180 high velocity impact craters on the Earth with ages up to 2400Myr and diameters up to 300km. Some studies have identified a periodicity in their age distribution, with periods ranging from 13 to 50Myr. It has further been claimed that such periods may be causally linked to a periodic motion of the solar system through the Galactic plane. However, many of these studies suffer from methodological problems, for example misinterpretation of p-values, overestimation of significance in the periodogram or a failure to consider plausible alternative models. Here I develop a Bayesian method for this problem in which impacts are treated as a stochastic phenomenon. Models for the time variation of the impact probability are defined and the evidence for them in the geological record is compared using Bayes factors. This probabilistic approach obviates the need for ad hoc statistics, and also makes explicit use of the age uncertainties. I find strong evidence for a monotonic decrease in the recorded impact rate going back in time over the past 250Myr for craters larger than 5km. The same is found for the past 150Myr when craters with upper age limits are included. This is consistent with a crater preservation/discovery bias modulating an otherwise constant impact rate. The set of craters larger than 35km (so less affected by erosion and infilling) and younger than 400Myr are best explained by a constant impact probability model. A periodic variation in the cratering rate is strongly disfavoured in all data sets. There is also no evidence for a periodicity superimposed on a constant rate or trend, although this more complex signal would be harder to distinguish.Comment: Minor typos corrected in arXiv v2. Erratum (minor notation corrections) corrected in arXiv v3. (Erratum available from http://www.mpia-hd.mpg.de/~calj/craterTS_erratum.pdf

Simultaneous radio-interferometric and high-energy TeV observations of the gamma-ray blazar Mkn 421

The TeV-emitting BL Lac object Mkn 421 was observed with very long baseline interferometry (VLBI) at three closely-spaced epochs one-month apart in March-April 1998. The source was also monitored at very-high gamma-ray energies (TeV measurements) during the same period in an attempt to search for correlations between TeV variability and the evolution of the radio morphology on parsec scales. While the VLBI maps show no temporal changes in the Mkn 421 VLBI jet, there is strong evidence of complex variability in both the total and polarized fluxes of the VLBI core of Mkn 421 and in its spectrum over the two-month span of our data. The high-energy measurements indicate that the overall TeV activity of the source was rising during this period, with a gamma-ray flare detected just three days prior to our second VLBI observing run. Although no firm correlation can be established, our data suggest that the two phenomena (TeV activity and VLBI core variability) are connected, with the VLBI core at 22 GHz being the self-absorbed radio counterpart of synchrotron self-Compton (SSC) emission at high energies. Based on the size of the VLBI core, we could derive an upper limit of 0.1 pc (3 x 10**17 cm) for the projected size of the SSC zone. This determination is the first model-free estimate of the size of the gamma-ray emitting region in a blazar.Comment: 12 pages, 9 figures, accepted for publication in Astronomy & Astrophysic

Quantified HI Morphology III: Merger Visibility Times from HI in Galaxy Simulations

Major mergers of disk galaxies are thought to be a substantial driver in galaxy evolution. To trace the fraction and the rate galaxies are in mergers over cosmic times, several observational techniques, including morphological selection criteria, have been developed over the last decade. We apply this morphological selection of mergers to 21 cm radio emission line (HI) column density images of spiral galaxies in nearby surveys. In this paper, we investigate how long a 1:1 merger is visible in HI from N-body simulations. We evaluate the merger visibility times for selection criteria based on four parameters: Concentration, Asymmetry, M20, and the Gini parameter of second order moment of the flux distribution (GM). Of three selection criteria used in the literature, one based on Concentration and M20 works well for the HI perspective with a merger time scale of 0.4 Gyr. Of the three selection criteria defined in our previous paper, the GM performs well and cleanly selects mergers for 0.69 Gyr. The other two criteria (A-M20 and C-M20), select isolated disks as well, but perform best for face-on, gas-rich disks (T(merger) ~ 1 Gyr). The different visibility scales can be combined with the selected fractions of galaxies in any large HI survey to obtain merger rates in the nearby Universe. All-sky surveys such as WALLABY with ASKAP and the Medium Deep Survey with the APETIF instrument on Westerbork are set to revolutionize our perspective on neutral hydrogen and will provide an accurate measure of the merger fraction and rate of the present epoch.Comment: 12 pages, 6 figures, 4 tables, accepted by MNRAS, appendix not include

Of cattle, sand flies and men : a systematic review of risk factor analyses for South Asian visceral leishmaniasis and implications for elimination

Background: Studies performed over the past decade have identified fairly consistent epidemiological patterns of risk factors for visceral leishmaniasis (VL) in the Indian subcontinent. Methods and Principal Findings: To inform the current regional VL elimination effort and identify key gaps in knowledge, we performed a systematic review of the literature, with a special emphasis on data regarding the role of cattle because primary risk factor studies have yielded apparently contradictory results. Because humans form the sole infection reservoir, clustering of kala-azar cases is a prominent epidemiological feature, both at the household level and on a larger scale. Subclinical infection also tends to show clustering around kala-azar cases. Within villages, areas become saturated over a period of several years; kala-azar incidence then decreases while neighboring areas see increases. More recently, post kalaazar dermal leishmaniasis (PKDL) cases have followed kala-azar peaks. Mud walls, palpable dampness in houses, and peridomestic vegetation may increase infection risk through enhanced density and prolonged survival of the sand fly vector. Bed net use, sleeping on a cot and indoor residual spraying are generally associated with decreased risk. Poor micronutrient status increases the risk of progression to kala-azar. The presence of cattle is associated with increased risk in some studies and decreased risk in others, reflecting the complexity of the effect of bovines on sand fly abundance, aggregation, feeding behavior and leishmanial infection rates. Poverty is an overarching theme, interacting with individual risk factors on multiple levels. Conclusions: Carefully designed demonstration projects, taking into account the complex web of interconnected risk factors, are needed to provide direct proof of principle for elimination and to identify the most effective maintenance activities to prevent a rapid resurgence when interventions are scaled back. More effective, short-course treatment regimens for PKDL are urgently needed to enable the elimination initiative to succeed

Prehistory of Transit Searches

Nowadays the more powerful method to detect extrasolar planets is the transit method. We review the planet transits which were anticipated, searched, and the first ones which were observed all through history. Indeed transits of planets in front of their star were first investigated and studied in the solar system. The first observations of sunspots were sometimes mistaken for transits of unknown planets. The first scientific observation and study of a transit in the solar system was the observation of Mercury transit by Pierre Gassendi in 1631. Because observations of Venus transits could give a way to determine the distance Sun-Earth, transits of Venus were overwhelmingly observed. Some objects which actually do not exist were searched by their hypothetical transits on the Sun, as some examples a Venus satellite and an infra-mercurial planet. We evoke the possibly first use of the hypothesis of an exoplanet transit to explain some periodic variations of the luminosity of a star, namely the star Algol, during the eighteen century. Then we review the predictions of detection of exoplanets by their transits, those predictions being sometimes ancient, and made by astronomers as well as popular science writers. However, these very interesting predictions were never published in peer-reviewed journals specialized in astronomical discoveries and results. A possible transit of the planet beta Pic b was observed in 1981. Shall we see another transit expected for the same planet during 2018? Today, some studies of transits which are connected to hypothetical extraterrestrial civilisations are published in astronomical refereed journals. Some studies which would be classified not long ago as science fiction are now considered as scientific ones.Comment: Submiited to Handbook of Exoplanets (Springer

Improving access to care and community health in Haiti with optimized community health worker placement

The national deployment of polyvalent community health workers (CHWs) is a constitutive part of the strategy initiated by the Ministry of Health to accelerate efforts towards universal health coverage in Haiti. Its implementation requires the planning of future recruitment and deployment activities for which mathematical modelling tools can provide useful support by exploring optimised placement scenarios based on access to care and population distribution. We combined existing gridded estimates of population and travel times with optimisation methods to derive theoretical CHW geographical placement scenarios including constraints on walking time and the number of people served per CHW. Four national-scale scenarios that align with total numbers of existing CHWs and that ensure that the walking time for each CHW does not exceed a predefined threshold are compared. The first scenario accounts for population distribution in rural and urban areas only, while the other three also incorporate in different ways the proximity of existing health centres. Comparing these scenarios to the current distribution, insufficient number of CHWs is systematically identified in several departments and gaps in access to health care are identified within all departments. These results highlight current suboptimal distribution of CHWs and emphasize the need to consider an optimal (re-)allocation

Search for CP Violation in Charged D Meson Decays

We report results of a search for CP violation in the singly Cabibbo-suppressed decays D+ -> K- K+ pi+, phi pi+, K*(892)0 K+, and pi- pi+ pi+ based on data from the charm hadroproduction experiment E791 at Fermilab. We search for a difference in the D+ and D- decay rates for each of the final states. No evidence for a difference is seen. The decay rate asymmetry parameters A(CP), defined as the difference in the D+ and D- decay rates divided by the sum of the decay rates, are measured to be: A(CP)(K K pi) = -0.014 +/- 0.029, A(CP)(phi pi) = -0.028 +/- 0.036, A(CP)(K*(892) K) = -0.010 +/- 0.050, and A(CP)(pi pi pi) = -0.017 +/- 0.042.Comment: 13 pages, 5 figures, 1 table; Elsevier LaTe

Correlation of tooth size and body size in living hominoid primates, with a note on relative brain size in Aegyptopithecus and Proconsul

Second molar length and body weight are used to test the correlation between tooth size and body size in living Hominoidea. These variates are highly correlated ( r = 0.942, p <0.001), indicating that tooth size can be used in dentally unspecialized fossil hominoids as one method of predicting the average body weight of species. Based on tooth size, the average body weight of Aegyptopithecus zeuxis is estimated to have been between 4.5 and 7.5 kg, which is corroborated by known cranial and postcranial elements. Using Radinsky's estimates of brain size, the encephalization quotient (EQ) for Aegyptopithecus was between 0.65 and 1.04. A similar analysis for Proconsul africanus yields a body weight between 16 and 34 kg, and an EQ between 1.19 and 1.96.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/37578/1/1330470308_ftp.pd

Posture modulates implicit hand maps

Several forms of somatosensation require that afferent signals be informed by stored representations of body size and shape. Recent results have revealed that position sense relies on a highly distorted body representation. Changes of internal hand posture produce plastic alterations of processing in somatosensory cortex. This study therefore investigated how such postural changes affect implicit body representations underlying position sense. Participants localized the knuckles and tips of each finger in external space in two postures: the fingers splayed (Apart posture) or pressed together (Together posture). Comparison of the relative locations of the judgments of each landmark were used to construct implicit maps of represented hand structure. Spreading the fingers apart produced increases in the implicit representation of hand size, with no apparent effect on hand shape. Thus, changes of internal hand posture produce rapid modulation of how the hand itself is represented, paralleling the known effects on somatosensory cortical processing