Forecasting Player Behavioral Data and Simulating in-Game Events

Understanding player behavior is fundamental in game data science. Video games evolve as players interact with the game, so being able to foresee player experience would help to ensure a successful game development. In particular, game developers need to evaluate beforehand the impact of in-game events. Simulation optimization of these events is crucial to increase player engagement and maximize monetization. We present an experimental analysis of several methods to forecast game-related variables, with two main aims: to obtain accurate predictions of in-app purchases and playtime in an operational production environment, and to perform simulations of in-game events in order to maximize sales and playtime. Our ultimate purpose is to take a step towards the data-driven development of games. The results suggest that, even though the performance of traditional approaches such as ARIMA is still better, the outcomes of state-of-the-art techniques like deep learning are promising. Deep learning comes up as a well-suited general model that could be used to forecast a variety of time series with different dynamic behaviors

Analysis of serum inflammatory mediators identifies unique dynamic networks associated with death and spontaneous survival in pediatric acute liver failure

Background: Tools to predict death or spontaneous survival are necessary to inform liver transplantation (LTx) decisions in pediatric acute liver failure (PALF), but such tools are not available. Recent data suggest that immune/inflammatory dysregulation occurs in the setting of acute liver failure. We hypothesized that specific, dynamic, and measurable patterns of immune/inflammatory dysregulation will correlate with outcomes in PALF. Methods: We assayed 26 inflammatory mediators on stored serum samples obtained from a convenience sample of 49 children in the PALF study group (PALFSG) collected within 7 days after enrollment. Outcomes were assessed within 21 days of enrollment consisting of spontaneous survivors, non-survivors, and LTx recipients. Data were subjected to statistical analysis, patient-specific Principal Component Analysis (PCA), and Dynamic Bayesian Network (DBN) inference. Findings: Raw inflammatory mediator levels assessed over time did not distinguish among PALF outcomes. However, DBN analysis did reveal distinct interferon-gamma-related networks that distinguished spontaneous survivors from those who died. The network identified in LTx patients pre-transplant was more like that seen in spontaneous survivors than in those who died, a finding supported by PCA. Interpretation: The application of DBN analysis of inflammatory mediators in this small patient sample appears to differentiate survivors from non-survivors in PALF. Patterns associated with LTx pre-transplant were more like those seen in spontaneous survivors than in those who died. DBN-based analyses might lead to a better prediction of outcome in PALF, and could also have more general utility in other complex diseases with an inflammatory etiology. Copyright: © 2013 Azhar et al

Methods to study splicing from high-throughput RNA Sequencing data

The development of novel high-throughput sequencing (HTS) methods for RNA (RNA-Seq) has provided a very powerful mean to study splicing under multiple conditions at unprecedented depth. However, the complexity of the information to be analyzed has turned this into a challenging task. In the last few years, a plethora of tools have been developed, allowing researchers to process RNA-Seq data to study the expression of isoforms and splicing events, and their relative changes under different conditions. We provide an overview of the methods available to study splicing from short RNA-Seq data. We group the methods according to the different questions they address: 1) Assignment of the sequencing reads to their likely gene of origin. This is addressed by methods that map reads to the genome and/or to the available gene annotations. 2) Recovering the sequence of splicing events and isoforms. This is addressed by transcript reconstruction and de novo assembly methods. 3) Quantification of events and isoforms. Either after reconstructing transcripts or using an annotation, many methods estimate the expression level or the relative usage of isoforms and/or events. 4) Providing an isoform or event view of differential splicing or expression. These include methods that compare relative event/isoform abundance or isoform expression across two or more conditions. 5) Visualizing splicing regulation. Various tools facilitate the visualization of the RNA-Seq data in the context of alternative splicing. In this review, we do not describe the specific mathematical models behind each method. Our aim is rather to provide an overview that could serve as an entry point for users who need to decide on a suitable tool for a specific analysis. We also attempt to propose a classification of the tools according to the operations they do, to facilitate the comparison and choice of methods.Comment: 31 pages, 1 figure, 9 tables. Small corrections adde

Innate immune activation by inhaled lipopolysaccharide, independent of oxidative stress, exacerbates silica-induced pulmonary fibrosis in mice

Acute exacerbations of pulmonary fibrosis are characterized by rapid decrements in lung function. Environmental factors that may contribute to acute exacerbations remain poorly understood. We have previously demonstrated that exposure to inhaled lipopolysaccharide (LPS) induces expression of genes associated with fibrosis. To address whether exposure to LPS could exacerbate fibrosis, we exposed male C57BL/6 mice to crystalline silica, or vehicle, followed 28 days later by LPS or saline inhalation. We observed that mice receiving both silica and LPS had significantly more total inflammatory cells, more whole lung lavage MCP-1, MIP-2, KC and IL-1β, more evidence of oxidative stress and more total lung hydroxyproline than mice receiving either LPS alone, or silica alone. Blocking oxidative stress with N-acetylcysteine attenuated whole lung inflammation but had no effect on total lung hydroxyproline. These observations suggest that exposure to innate immune stimuli, such as LPS in the environment, may exacerbate stable pulmonary fibrosis via mechanisms that are independent of inflammation and oxidative stress. © 2012 Brass et al

Increasing Compliance with Mass Drug Administration Programs for Lymphatic Filariasis in India through Education and Lymphedema Management Programs

Global elimination of lymphatic filariasis requires giving drugs at least annually to populations who live at risk of becoming infected with the parasite. At least 80% of people at risk need to take the drugs annually for 5 or more years to stop transmission of the infection. People suffering from the long-term effects of infection, such as swollen legs, benefit from programs that teach self-care of their affected limbs. In this study, we assessed the impact of an educational campaign that, after addressing previously identified predictors of compliance, significantly improved drug compliance. The specific factors improving compliance included knowing about the drug distribution in advance, knowing that everyone is at risk for acquiring the infection, knowing that the drug distribution was for lymphatic filariasis prevention, and knowing at least one component of leg care. We also found that areas with programs to assist people with swollen legs had greater increases in compliance. This research provides evidence that program evaluation can be used to improve drug compliance. In addition, our work shows for the first time that programs to benefit people with swollen legs caused by lymphatic filariasis also increase the participation of people without disease in drug treatment programs

Multi-messenger observations of a binary neutron star merger

On 2017 August 17 a binary neutron star coalescence candidate (later designated GW170817) with merger time 12:41:04 UTC was observed through gravitational waves by the Advanced LIGO and Advanced Virgo detectors. The Fermi Gamma-ray Burst Monitor independently detected a gamma-ray burst (GRB 170817A) with a time delay of ~1.7 s with respect to the merger time. From the gravitational-wave signal, the source was initially localized to a sky region of 31 deg2 at a luminosity distance of 40+8-8 Mpc and with component masses consistent with neutron stars. The component masses were later measured to be in the range 0.86 to 2.26 Mo. An extensive observing campaign was launched across the electromagnetic spectrum leading to the discovery of a bright optical transient (SSS17a, now with the IAU identification of AT 2017gfo) in NGC 4993 (at ~40 Mpc) less than 11 hours after the merger by the One- Meter, Two Hemisphere (1M2H) team using the 1 m Swope Telescope. The optical transient was independently detected by multiple teams within an hour. Subsequent observations targeted the object and its environment. Early ultraviolet observations revealed a blue transient that faded within 48 hours. Optical and infrared observations showed a redward evolution over ~10 days. Following early non-detections, X-ray and radio emission were discovered at the transient’s position ~9 and ~16 days, respectively, after the merger. Both the X-ray and radio emission likely arise from a physical process that is distinct from the one that generates the UV/optical/near-infrared emission. No ultra-high-energy gamma-rays and no neutrino candidates consistent with the source were found in follow-up searches. These observations support the hypothesis that GW170817 was produced by the merger of two neutron stars in NGC4993 followed by a short gamma-ray burst (GRB 170817A) and a kilonova/macronova powered by the radioactive decay of r-process nuclei synthesized in the ejecta

Regulation of inflammation in Japanese encephalitis

Uncontrolled inflammatory response of the central nervous system is a hallmark of severe Japanese encephalitis (JE). Although inflammation is necessary to mount an efficient immune response against virus infections, exacerbated inflammatory response is often detrimental. In this context, cells of the monocytic lineage appear to be important forces driving JE pathogenesis

Isospin symmetry in B(E2) values: Coulomb excitation study of Mg-21

The $T_z$~=~$-\frac{3}{2}$ nucleus ${}^{21}$Mg has been studied by Coulomb excitation on ${}^{196}$Pt and ${}^{110}$Pd targets. A 205.6(1)-keV $\gamma$-ray transition resulting from the Coulomb excitation of the $\frac{5}{2}^+$ ground state to the first excited $\frac{1}{2}^+$ state in ${}^{21}$Mg was observed for the first time. Coulomb excitation cross-section measurements with both targets and a measurement of the half-life of the $\frac{1}{2}^+$ state yield an adopted value of $B(E2;\frac{5}{2}^+\rightarrow\frac{1}{2}^+)$~=~13.3(4)~W.u. A new excited state at 1672(1)~keV with tentative $\frac{9}{2}^+$ assignment was also identified in ${}^{21}$Mg. This work demonstrates large difference of the $B(E2;\frac{5}{2}^+\rightarrow\frac{1}{2}^+)$ values between $T$~=~$\frac{3}{2}$, $A$~=~21 mirror nuclei. The difference is investigated in the shell-model framework employing both isospin conserving and breaking USD interactions and using modern \textsl{ab initio} nuclear structure calculations, which have recently become applicable in the $sd$ shell.Comment: 8 pages, 6 figures, submitted to Phys. Rev. C, Rapid Communicatio

Cyclooxygenase inhibitors impair CD4 T cell immunity and exacerbate Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection in aerosol-challenged mice

Tuberculosis, caused by infection with Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb), kills over 1.6 million people each year despite availability of antibiotics. The increase in drug resistant Mtb strains is a major public health emergency and host-directed therapy as adjunct to antibiotic treatment has gained increased interest. Cyclooxygenase inhibitors (COXi) are frequently used drugs to alleviate tuberculosis related symptoms. Mouse studies of acute intravenous Mtb infection have suggested a potential benefit of COXi for host-directed therapy. Here we show that COXi treatment (ibuprofen and celecoxib) is detrimental to Mtb control in different mouse models of respiratory infection. This effect links to impairments of the Type-1 helper (Th1) T-cell response as CD4 T-cells in COXi-treated animals have significantly decreased Th1 differentiation, reduced IFNγ expression and decreased protective capacity upon adoptive transfer. If confirmed in clinical trials, these findings could have major impact on global health and question the use of COXi for host-directed therapy.publishedVersio

Evaluation of bacteriophage as an adjunct therapy for treatment of peri-prosthetic joint infection caused by Staphylococcus aureus

Phage therapy offers a potential alternate strategy for the treatment of peri-prosthetic joint infection (PJI), particularly where limited effective antibiotics are available. We undertook preclinical trials to investigate the therapeutic efficacy of a phage cocktail, alone and in combination with vancomycin, to reduce bacterial numbers within the infected joint using a clinically-relevant model of Staphylococcus aureus-induced PJI. Infected animals were randomised to 4 treatment groups, with treatment commencing 21-days post-surgery: bacteriophage alone, vancomycin alone, bacteriophage and vancomycin, and sham. At day 28 post-surgery, animals were euthanised for microbiological and immunological assessment of implanted joints. Treatment with phage alone or vancomycin alone, led to 5-fold and 6.2-fold reductions, respectively in bacterial load within peri-implant tissue compared to shamtreated animals. Compared to sham-treated animals, a 22.5-fold reduction in S. aureus burden was observed within joint tissue of animals that were administered phage in combination with vancomycin, corresponding with decreased swelling in the implanted knee. Microbiological data were supported by evidence of decreased inflammation within the joints of animals administered phage in combination with vancomycin, compared to sham-treated animals. Our findings provide further support for phage therapy as a tolerable and effective adjunct treatment for PJI