Stochastic Models for Solar Power

International audienceIn this work we develop a stochastic model for the solar power at the surface of the earth. We combine a deterministic model of the clear sky irradiance with a stochastic model for the so-called clear sky index to obtain a stochastic model for the actual irradiance hitting the surface of the earth. Our clear sky index model is a 4-state semi-Markov process where state durations and clear sky index values in each state have phase-type distributions. We use per-minute solar irradiance data to tune the model, hence we are able to capture small time scales fluctuations. We compare our model with the on-off power source model developed by Miozzo et al. (2014) for the power generated by photovoltaic panels, and to a modified version that we propose. In our on-off model the output current is frequently resampled instead of being a constant during the duration of the " on " state. Computing the autocorrelation functions for all proposed models, we find that the irradiance model surpasses the on-off models and it is able to capture the multiscale correlations that are inherently present in the solar irradiance. The power spectrum density of generated trajectories matches closely that of measurements. We believe our irradiance model can be used not only in the mathematical analysis of energy harvesting systems but also in their simulation

Ovine Fetal Thymus Response to Lipopolysaccharide-Induced Chorioamnionitis and Antenatal Corticosteroids

RATIONALE: Chorioamnionitis is associated with preterm delivery and involution of the fetal thymus. Women at risk of preterm delivery receive antenatal corticosteroids which accelerate fetal lung maturation and improve neonatal outcome. However, the effects of antenatal corticosteroids on the fetal thymus in the settings of chorioamnionitis are largely unknown. We hypothesized that intra-amniotic exposure to lipopolysaccharide (LPS) causes involution of the fetal thymus resulting in persistent effects on thymic structure and cell populations. We also hypothesized that antenatal corticosteroids may modulate the effects of LPS on thymic development. METHODS: Time-mated ewes with singleton fetuses received an intra-amniotic injection of LPS 7 or 14 days before preterm delivery at 120 days gestational age (term = 150 days). LPS and corticosteroid treatment groups received intra-amniotic LPS either preceding or following maternal intra-muscular betamethasone. Gestation matched controls received intra-amniotic and maternal intra-muscular saline. The fetal intra-thoracic thymus was evaluated. RESULTS: Intra-amniotic LPS decreased the cortico-medullary (C/M) ratio of the thymus and increased Toll-like receptor (TLR) 4 mRNA and CD3 expression indicating involution and activation of the fetal thymus. Increased TLR4 and CD3 expression persisted for 14 days but Foxp3 expression decreased suggesting a change in regulatory T-cells. Sonic hedgehog and bone morphogenetic protein 4 mRNA, which are negative regulators of T-cell development, decreased in response to intra-amniotic LPS. Betamethasone treatment before LPS exposure attenuated some of the LPS-induced thymic responses but increased cleaved caspase-3 expression and decreased the C/M ratio. Betamethasone treatment after LPS exposure did not prevent the LPS-induced thymic changes. CONCLUSION: Intra-amniotic exposure to LPS activated the fetal thymus which was accompanied by structural changes. Treatment with antenatal corticosteroids before LPS partially attenuated the LPS-induced effects but increased apoptosis in the fetal thymus. Corticosteroid administration after the inflammatory stimulus did not inhibit the LPS effects on the fetal thymus

A Cell Permeable Peptide Inhibitor of NFAT Inhibits Macrophage Cytokine Expression and Ameliorates Experimental Colitis

Nuclear factor of activated T cells (NFAT) plays a critical role in the development and function of immune and non-immune cells. Although NFAT is a central transcriptional regulator of T cell cytokines, its role in macrophage specific gene expression is less defined. Previous work from our group demonstrated that NFAT regulates Il12b gene expression in macrophages. Here, we further investigate NFAT function in murine macrophages and determined the effects of a cell permeable NFAT inhibitor peptide 11R-VIVIT on experimental colitis in mice. Treatment of bone marrow derived macrophages (BMDMs) with tacrolimus or 11R-VIVIT significantly inhibited LPS and LPS plus IFN-γ induced IL-12 p40 mRNA and protein expression. IL-12 p70 and IL-23 secretion were also decreased. NFAT nuclear translocation and binding to the IL-12 p40 promoter was reduced by NFAT inhibition. Experiments in BMDMs from IL-10 deficient (Il10−/−) mice demonstrate that inhibition of IL-12 expression by 11R-VIVIT was independent of IL-10 expression. To test its therapeutic potential, 11R-VIVIT was administered systemically to Il10−/− mice with piroxicam-induced colitis. 11R-VIVIT treated mice demonstrated significant improvement in colitis compared to mice treated with an inactive peptide. Moreover, decreased spontaneous secretion of IL-12 p40 and TNF in supernatants from colon explant cultures was demonstrated. In summary, NFAT, widely recognized for its role in T cell biology, also regulates important innate inflammatory pathways in macrophages. Selective blocking of NFAT via a cell permeable inhibitory peptide is a promising therapeutic strategy for the treatment of inflammatory bowel diseases

Differentiation of breast cancer stem cells by knockdown of CD44: promising differentiation therapy

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Breast cancer stem cells (BCSCs) are the source of breast tumors. Compared with other cancer cells, cancer stem cells show high resistance to both chemotherapy and radiotherapy. Targeting of BCSCs is thus a potentially promising and effective strategy for breast cancer treatment. Differentiation therapy represents one type of cancer stem-cell-targeting therapy, aimed at attacking the stemness of cancer stem cells, thus reducing their chemo- and radioresistance. In a previous study, we showed that down-regulation of CD44 sensitized BCSCs to the anti-tumor agent doxorubicin. This study aimed to determine if CD44 knockdown caused BCSCs to differentiate into breast cancer non-stem cells (non-BCSCs).</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We isolated a breast cancer cell population (CD44⁺CD24^-cells) from primary cultures of malignant breast tumors. These cells were sorted into four sub-populations based on their expression of CD44 and CD24 surface markers. CD44 knockdown in the BCSC population was achieved using small hairpin RNA lentivirus particles. The differentiated status of CD44 knock-down BCSCs was evaluated on the basis of changes in CD44⁺CD24^-phenotype, tumorigenesis in NOD/SCID mice, and gene expression in relation to renewal status, metastasis, and cell cycle in comparison with BCSCs and non-BCSCs.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Knockdown of CD44 caused BCSCs to differentiate into non-BCSCs with lower tumorigenic potential, and altered the cell cycle and expression profiles of some stem cell-related genes, making them more similar to those seen in non-BCSCs.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Knockdown of CD44 is an effective strategy for attacking the stemness of BCSCs, resulting in a loss of stemness and an increase in susceptibility to chemotherapy or radiation. The results of this study highlight a potential new strategy for breast cancer treatment through the targeting of BCSCs.</p

Ecological Thresholds in the Savanna Landscape: Developing a Protocol for Monitoring the Change in Composition and Utilisation of Large Trees

BACKGROUND: Acquiring greater understanding of the factors causing changes in vegetation structure -- particularly with the potential to cause regime shifts -- is important in adaptively managed conservation areas. Large trees (> or =5 m in height) play an important ecosystem function, and are associated with a stable ecological state in the African savanna. There is concern that large tree densities are declining in a number of protected areas, including the Kruger National Park, South Africa. In this paper the results of a field study designed to monitor change in a savanna system are presented and discussed. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Developing the first phase of a monitoring protocol to measure the change in tree species composition, density and size distribution, whilst also identifying factors driving change. A central issue is the discrete spatial distribution of large trees in the landscape, making point sampling approaches relatively ineffective. Accordingly, fourteen 10 m wide transects were aligned perpendicular to large rivers (3.0-6.6 km in length) and eight transects were located at fixed-point photographic locations (1.0-1.6 km in length). Using accumulation curves, we established that the majority of tree species were sampled within 3 km. Furthermore, the key ecological drivers (e.g. fire, herbivory, drought and disease) which influence large tree use and impact were also recorded within 3 km. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: The technique presented provides an effective method for monitoring changes in large tree abundance, size distribution and use by the main ecological drivers across the savanna landscape. However, the monitoring of rare tree species would require individual marking approaches due to their low densities and specific habitat requirements. Repeat sampling intervals would vary depending on the factor of concern and proposed management mitigation. Once a monitoring protocol has been identified and evaluated, the next stage is to integrate that protocol into a decision-making system, which highlights potential leading indicators of change. Frequent monitoring would be required to establish the rate and direction of change. This approach may be useful in generating monitoring protocols for other dynamic systems

Illumination of Parainfluenza Virus Infection and Transmission in Living Animals Reveals a Tissue-Specific Dichotomy

The parainfluenza viruses (PIVs) are highly contagious respiratory paramyxoviruses and a leading cause of lower respiratory tract (LRT) disease. Since no vaccines or antivirals exist, non-pharmaceutical interventions are the only means of control for these pathogens. Here we used bioluminescence imaging to visualize the spatial and temporal progression of murine PIV1 (Sendai virus) infection in living mice after intranasal inoculation or exposure by contact. A non-attenuated luciferase reporter virus (rSeV-luc(M-F*)) that expressed high levels of luciferase yet was phenotypically similar to wild-type Sendai virus in vitro and in vivo was generated to allow visualization. After direct intranasal inoculation, we unexpectedly observed that the upper respiratory tract (URT) and trachea supported robust infection under conditions that result in little infection or pathology in the lungs including a low inoculum of virus, an attenuated virus, and strains of mice genetically resistant to lung infection. The high permissivity of the URT and trachea to infection resulted in 100% transmission to naïve contact recipients, even after low-dose (70 PFU) inoculation of genetically resistant BALB/c donor mice. The timing of transmission was consistent with the timing of high viral titers in the URT and trachea of donor animals but was independent of the levels of infection in the lungs of donors. The data therefore reveals a disconnect between transmissibility, which is associated with infection in the URT, and pathogenesis, which arises from infection in the lungs and the immune response. Natural infection after transmission was universally robust in the URT and trachea yet limited in the lungs, inducing protective immunity without weight loss even in genetically susceptible 129/SvJ mice. Overall, these results reveal a dichotomy between PIV infection in the URT and trachea versus the lungs and define a new model for studies of pathogenesis, development of live virus vaccines, and testing of antiviral therapies

Multi-messenger observations of a binary neutron star merger

On 2017 August 17 a binary neutron star coalescence candidate (later designated GW170817) with merger time 12:41:04 UTC was observed through gravitational waves by the Advanced LIGO and Advanced Virgo detectors. The Fermi Gamma-ray Burst Monitor independently detected a gamma-ray burst (GRB 170817A) with a time delay of ~1.7 s with respect to the merger time. From the gravitational-wave signal, the source was initially localized to a sky region of 31 deg2 at a luminosity distance of 40+8-8 Mpc and with component masses consistent with neutron stars. The component masses were later measured to be in the range 0.86 to 2.26 Mo. An extensive observing campaign was launched across the electromagnetic spectrum leading to the discovery of a bright optical transient (SSS17a, now with the IAU identification of AT 2017gfo) in NGC 4993 (at ~40 Mpc) less than 11 hours after the merger by the One- Meter, Two Hemisphere (1M2H) team using the 1 m Swope Telescope. The optical transient was independently detected by multiple teams within an hour. Subsequent observations targeted the object and its environment. Early ultraviolet observations revealed a blue transient that faded within 48 hours. Optical and infrared observations showed a redward evolution over ~10 days. Following early non-detections, X-ray and radio emission were discovered at the transient’s position ~9 and ~16 days, respectively, after the merger. Both the X-ray and radio emission likely arise from a physical process that is distinct from the one that generates the UV/optical/near-infrared emission. No ultra-high-energy gamma-rays and no neutrino candidates consistent with the source were found in follow-up searches. These observations support the hypothesis that GW170817 was produced by the merger of two neutron stars in NGC4993 followed by a short gamma-ray burst (GRB 170817A) and a kilonova/macronova powered by the radioactive decay of r-process nuclei synthesized in the ejecta

Localization and broadband follow-up of the gravitational-wave transient GW150914

A gravitational-wave (GW) transient was identified in data recorded by the Advanced Laser Interferometer Gravitational-wave Observatory (LIGO) detectors on 2015 September 14. The event, initially designated G184098 and later given the name GW150914, is described in detail elsewhere. By prior arrangement, preliminary estimates of the time, significance, and sky location of the event were shared with 63 teams of observers covering radio, optical, near-infrared, X-ray, and gamma-ray wavelengths with ground- and space-based facilities. In this Letter we describe the low-latency analysis of the GW data and present the sky localization of the first observed compact binary merger. We summarize the follow-up observations reported by 25 teams via private Gamma-ray Coordinates Network circulars, giving an overview of the participating facilities, the GW sky localization coverage, the timeline, and depth of the observations. As this event turned out to be a binary black hole merger, there is little expectation of a detectable electromagnetic (EM) signature. Nevertheless, this first broadband campaign to search for a counterpart of an Advanced LIGO source represents a milestone and highlights the broad capabilities of the transient astronomy community and the observing strategies that have been developed to pursue neutron star binary merger events. Detailed investigations of the EM data and results of the EM follow-up campaign are being disseminated in papers by the individual teams