Day-Ahead Scheduling for Economic Dispatch of Combined Heat and Power with Uncertain Demand Response

This paper presents an energy management method for the interconnected operation of power, heat, Combined Heat and Power (CHP) units to settle the Day-Ahead market in the presence of a demand response program (DRP). A major challenge in this regard is the price uncertainty for DRP participants. First, the definitive model of the problem is introduced from the perspective of the Regional Market Manager (RMM) in order to minimize the total supply cost in the presence of TOU program, which is a type of DRP. Furthermore, a market-oriented tensile model is presented in the form of a combination of over-lapping generations (OLG) and price elasticity (PE) formulations to determine the amount of electricity demand in the TOU program. Then, a price uncertainty model of the proposed problem is introduced according to the IGDT risk aversion and risk-taking strategies considering information gap decision theory (IGDT). The above problem is solved through the use of the co-evolutionary particle swarm optimization (C-PSO) algorithm and the proposed model is implemented on a standard seven-unit system for a period of 24 hours.© 2022 authors. Published by IEEE. This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License. For more information, see https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/fi=vertaisarvioitu|en=peerReviewed

Papel mediador do silêncio organizacional na relação entre clima organizacional e desempenho no trabalho

The main aim of the present study is explaining the relationship between organizational climate and job performance by considering the mediating role of organizational silence of education staff of Fars province. A descriptive-correlative method was used in this study. The statistical population of this study included the staff of the education administration of Fars province. They were 350 persons at the time of study. The sample size was 183 persons based on Kerjesi-Morgan's table and the sampling was done by a stratified- randomized method. Three questionnaires of job performance (Paterson), organizational climate (Susman and Deep) and organizational silence (Vakola and Borados) were used for gathering information. The validity and reliability of questionnaires were confirmed. Indexes such as mean and standard deviation and Pearson correlative coefficient and hierarchical analysis regression using Baron and Kenny method of two parts of descriptive statistics and inferential statistics were used for analyzing the data and testing the hypothesizes. Results of the analyzed data showed that there is a direct and meaningful relationship between organizational climate and job performance. There is also a reverse relationship between organizational climate and organizational silence and there is a direct and meaningful relationship between organizational climate and job performance. It means that the more improving the organizational climate, the more increasing the job performance and the more reducing the organizational silence.El objetivo principal del presente estudio es explicar la relación entre el clima organizacional y el desempeño laboral al considerar el papel mediador del silencio organizacional del personal educativo de la provincia de Fars. Se utilize un método descriptivo-correlativo. La población estadística de este estudio incluyó al personal de la administración educativa de la provincia de Fars. Eran 350 personas en el momento del estudio. El tamaño de la muestra fue de 183 personas en base a la tabla de Kerjesi-Morgan y el muestreo se realizó mediante un método aleatorio estratificado. Se utilizaron tres cuestionarios de desempeño laboral (Paterson), clima organizacional (Susman y Deep) y silencio organizacional (Vakola y Borados) para recopilar información. La validez y fiabilidad de los cuestionarios fueron confirmadas. Se usaron índices como la media y la desviación estándar y el coeficiente correlativo de Pearson y la regresión del análisis jerárquico utilizando el método de Baron y Kenny de dos partes de estadística descriptiva y estadística inferencial para analizar los datos y probar las hipótesis. Los resultados de los datos analizados mostraron que existe una relación directa y significativa entre el clima organizacional y el desempeño laboral. También existe una relación inversa entre el clima organizacional y el silencio organizacional y existe una relación directa y significativa entre el clima organizacional y el desempeño laboral. Significa que cuanto más se mejore el clima organizacional, más se incrementará el desempeño laboral y más se reducirá el silencio organizacional. O principal objetivo deste estudo é explicar a relação entre o clima organizacional e o desempenho no trabalho quando se considera o papel mediador do silêncio organizacional do pessoal docente da província de Fars. Um método descritivo-correlativo foi utilizado. A população estatística deste estudo incluiu o pessoal da administração educacional da província de Fars. Havia 350 pessoas no momento do estudo. O tamanho da amostra foi de 183 pessoas, com base na tabela de Kerjesi-Morgan, e a amostragem foi realizada por meio de um método aleatório estratificado. Três questionários de desempenho no trabalho (Paterson), clima organizacional (Susman e Deep) e silêncio organizacional (Vakola e Borados) foram usados para coletar informações. A validade e confiabilidade dos questionários foram confirmadas. Índices como média e desvio padrão e o coeficiente de correlação de Pearson e regressão da análise hierárquica foram utilizados pelo método de Baron e Kenny de duas partes da estatística descritiva e estatística inferencial para analisar os dados e testar as hipóteses. Os resultados dos dados analisados mostraram que existe uma relação direta e significativa entre o clima organizacional e o desempenho no trabalho. Há também uma relação inversa entre o clima organizacional e o silêncio organizacional e existe uma relação direta e significativa entre o clima organizacional e o desempenho no trabalho. Isso significa que quanto mais o clima organizacional melhorar, mais o desempenho no trabalho aumentará e mais o silêncio organizacional será reduzido

Avaliando o comprometimento organizacional dos professores da escola secundária com base na teoria dos dois fatores de higiene de motivos de Herzberg

main aim of the present study is evaluating organizational commitment of secondary school's teachers based on Herzberg's Motive- hygiene two-factor theory. A descriptive-survey method is used in this study. The statistical population of this study included the secondary school's teachers of the education administration of Jahrom city. They were 330 persons at the time of study. The sample size was 178 persons based on Kerjesi-Morgan's table and the sampling was done by a stratified- randomized method. Two questionnaires of organizational commitment (Allen and Meyer) and motive- hygiene two-factor (job expectation) (Lussier) were used for gathering information. The validity and reliability of questionnaires were confirmed. Indexes such as mean and standard deviation, One – Sample T Test, Pearson correlative coefficient, Independent- Samples T – Test, stepwise multivariate regression analysis and One - Way Analysis of Variance of two parts of descriptive statistics and inferential statistics were used for analyzing the data respectively. Results of the analyzed data showed that there is a significant relationship between motive- hygiene factors and organizational commitment. There is no significant difference between hygiene factors of male and female teachers but the rate of hygiene factors of female teachers is more than the male teachers. There is also no significant difference between organizational commitment of male and female teachers but the rate of teachers with associate of arts is more than the teachers with Bachelor of Arts and Master of Arts (or sciences).El objetivo principal del presente estudio es evaluar el compromiso organizacional de los docentes de la escuela secundaria basado en la teoría de Herzberg sobre la motivación de dos factores. Un método de encuesta descriptiva se utiliza en este estudio. La población estadística de este estudio incluyó a los profesores de la escuela secundaria de la administración educativa de la ciudad de Jahrom. Eran 330 personas en el momento del estudio. El tamaño de la muestra fue de 178 personas según la tabla de Kerjesi-Morgan y el muestreo se realizó por un método estratificado y aleatorizado. Se utilizaron dos cuestionarios de compromiso organizacional (Allen y Meyer) y de motivación por motivos de dos factores (expectativa de trabajo) (Lussier) para recabar información. La validez y fiabilidad de los cuestionarios fueron confirmadas. Se usaron índices como media y desviación estándar, prueba T de una muestra, coeficiente correlativo Pearson, prueba T de muestras independientes, análisis de regresión multivariante por pasos y análisis de varianza de una vía de dos partes de estadística descriptiva y estadística inferencial para analizar el datos respectivamente. Los resultados de los datos analizados mostraron que existe una relación significativa entre los factores de higiene motivacional y el compromiso organizacional. No hay una diferencia significativa entre los factores de higiene de los docentes masculinos y femeninos, pero la tasa de factores de higiene de las maestras es más que la de los docentes masculinos. Tampoco hay una diferencia significativa entre el compromiso organizacional de maestros y maestras, pero la tasa de maestros con asociado de artes es más que la de maestros con Licenciatura en Artes y Maestría en Artes (o ciencias).O principal objetivo do presente estudo é avaliar o comprometimento organizacional de professores do ensino médio baseado na teoria de Herzberg sobre a motivação de dois fatores. Um método de pesquisa descritiva é usado neste estudo. A população estatística deste estudo incluiu os professores do ensino médio da administração educacional da cidade de Jahrom. Havia 330 pessoas no momento do estudo. O tamanho da amostra foi de 178 pessoas, de acordo com a tabela de Kerjesi-Morgan, e a amostragem foi realizada por método estratificado e randomizado. Dois questionários de comprometimento organizacional (Allen e Meyer) e motivação foram usados por razões de dois fatores (expectativa de trabalho) (Lussier) para coletar informações. A validade e confiabilidade dos questionários foram confirmadas. índices como média e desvio padrão, amostra teste t, Pearson coeficiente de correlação, t-teste em amostras independentes, análise de regressão multivariada e análise de variância através de duas partes de estatística descritiva e estatística inferencial foram utilizados para analisar o dados, respectivamente. Os resultados dos dados analisados mostraram que existe uma relação significativa entre fatores de higiene motivacional e comprometimento organizacional. Não há diferença significativa entre os fatores de higiene de professores do sexo masculino e feminino, mas a taxa de fatores de higiene das professoras é maior do que a dos professores do sexo masculino. Também não há uma diferença significativa entre o comprometimento organizacional dos professores, mas a taxa de professores de artes associados é mais do que professores com Bachelor of Arts e Master of Arts (ou ciência)

O papel da tecnologia da informação e comunicação no processo de ensino-aprendizagem e análise de sua aplicação nas escolas primárias de Qavar

Any effective change and development in cultural, economic, political, social, etc. structure of society depends on change, transformation and development of the most fundamental institution of society such as the educational institution. Nowadays, we are witness of significant advances and developments of education in many developed or developing countries with the advent of new educational technologies in the teaching learning process. It is necessary to set up a system of education in accordance with the time and conditions by utilizing the most important tools of development and promotion namely new educational technologies, increasing awareness and improving the human capital capability and training of expert and committed staff and taking steps in the sustainable development, effective modernity and efficiency highway in order to overcome the traditional and old structures , enter the scientific competition field, overcoming the challenges and achieving the optimum ideals of the society but how much has the primary schools of Qavar city been able to play the role of modern technology in its educational system? At first, the research  method was library method and then it was a qualitative method. Data were collected by a semi-structured interview and then they were analyzed by theme analysis method. Findings of the first part of this research suggest that use of technology has been effective in changing attitude, acquisition of skills and enhancement of teachers' empowerment and academic achievement, attractive learning and increasing creative thinking of learners. The findings of 9 interviews showed that the following three factors (in order of importance) have significantly reduced the rate of technology utilization in the primary schools of Qavar city. 1- Unfamiliarity or not having enough teachers' proficiency in technology and its usage in teaching 2- a large number of students and lack of facilities 3- bulky textbooks and not having sufficient time.Cualquier cambio y desarrollo efectivo en la estructura cultural, económica, política, social, etc. de la sociedad depende del cambio, la transformación y el desarrollo de la institución más fundamental de la sociedad, como la institución educativa. Hoy en día, somos testigos de importantes avances y desarrollos de la educación en muchos países desarrollados o en desarrollo con el advenimiento de nuevas tecnologías educativas en el proceso de aprendizaje de la enseñanza. Es necesario establecer un sistema de educación de acuerdo con el tiempo y las condiciones utilizando las herramientas más importantes de desarrollo y promoción, a saber, nuevas tecnologías educativas, aumentar la conciencia y mejorar la capacidad del capital humano y la formación de personal experto y comprometido y tomar medidas en el desarrollo sostenible, la modernidad efectiva y la eficiencia vial para superar las estructuras tradicionales y viejas, ingrese al campo de la competencia científica, superando los desafíos y logrando los ideales óptimos de la sociedad, pero ¿cuánto han podido las escuelas primarias de la ciudad de Qavar desempeñar el papel de la tecnología  moderna en su sistema educativo? Al principio, el método de investigación era el método de la biblioteca y luego era un método cualitativo. Los datos se recolectaron mediante una entrevista semiestructurada y luego se analizaron mediante el método de análisis de temas. Los resultados de la primera parte de esta investigación sugieren que el uso de la tecnología ha sido eficaz para cambiar la actitud, la adquisición de habilidades y la mejora del empoderamiento y el rendimiento académico de los docentes, el aprendizaje atractivo y el aumento del pensamiento creativo de los alumnos. Los resultados de 9 entrevistas mostraron que los siguientes tres factores (en orden de importancia) han reducido significativamente la tasa de utilización de la tecnología en las escuelas primarias de la ciudad de Qavar. 1- Desconocimiento o falta de competencia suficiente de los profesores en la tecnología y su uso en la enseñanza 2- un gran número de estudiantes y la falta de instalaciones 3- libros de texto voluminosos y no tener suficiente tiempo    Qualquer mudança e desenvolvimento efetivo na estrutura cultural, econômica, política, social, etc. da sociedade depende da mudança, transformação e desenvolvimento da instituição mais fundamental da sociedade, como a instituição de ensino. Hoje, estamos testemunhando importantes avanços e desenvolvimentos na educação em muitos países desenvolvidos ou em desenvolvimento, com o advento de novas tecnologias educacionais no processo de aprendizagem do ensino. É necessário estabelecer um sistema de ensino de acordo com o tempo e as condições usando as ferramentas mais importantes para o desenvolvimento e promoção, ou seja, novas tecnologias educacionais, aumentar a conscientização e melhorar a capacidade do capital humano e formação de pessoal qualificado e comprometido e agir sobre o desenvolvimento sustentável, a modernidade eficaz e eficiência estrada para superar estruturas tradicionais e antigas, entrando no domínio da concorrência científica, superar desafios e alcançar ideais ideais de sociedade, mas como eles foram capazes de escolas primário da cidade de Qavar desempenham o papel da tecnologia moderna em seu sistema educacional? No início, o método de pesquisa era o método de biblioteca e, em seguida, era um método qualitativo. Os dados foram coletados por meio de entrevista semiestruturada e analisados por meio do método de análise tópica. Os resultados da primeira parte deste estudo sugerem que o uso da tecnologia tem sido eficaz na mudança de atitude, a aquisição de competências e melhoria da capacitação e desempenho acadêmico dos professores, aprendendo atraente e aumentar o pensamento criativo dos alunos. Os resultados de 9 entrevistas mostraram que os três fatores a seguir (em ordem de importância) reduziram significativamente a taxa de utilização de tecnologia nas escolas primárias da cidade de Qavar. 1- Falta de competência suficiente dos professores em tecnologia e seu uso no ensino 2- um grande número de alunos e falta de instalações 3- livros-texto volumosos e não ter tempo suficiente

O papel da informação e a comunicação no processo de aprendizado-aprendizagem e a análise de sua aplicação nas escuelas primarias de Qavar

Cualquier cambio y el desarrollo eficaz en la estructura cultural, económico, político, social, etc., de la sociedad depende de cambio, transformación y desarrollo de la institución más fundamental de la sociedad, tales como la institución educativa. Hoy en día, somos testigos de los avances y desarrollos de la educación en muchos países desarrollados o en vías de desarrollo con el advenimiento de nuevas tecnologías de la educación en el proceso de enseñanza aprendizaje significativas. Es necesario establecer un sistema de educación de acuerdo con el tiempo y las condiciones de utilización de las herramientas más importantes de saber, las nuevas tecnologías de la educación el desarrollo y la promoción, la sensibilización y la mejora de la capacidad del capital humano y la formación de expertos y personal comprometido y tomar medidas en el desarrollo sostenible, modernidad efectiva y la carretera eficiencia con el fin de superar las estructuras tradicionales y antiguos, entrar en el campo de la competencia científica, la superación de los desafíos y alcanzar los ideales óptimos de la sociedad, sino cuánto se las escuelas primarias de la ciudad Qavar sido capaz de desempeñar el papel de la moderna tecnología en su sistema educativo? Al principio, el método de investigación fue el método de la biblioteca y luego se trataba de un método cualitativo. Los datos fueron recogidos por una entrevista semiestructurada y luego se analizaron por el método de análisis de tema. Los hallazgos de la primera parte de esta investigación sugieren que el uso de la tecnología ha sido eficaz en el cambio de actitud, la adquisición de habilidades y mejora de la capacitación de los docentes y el rendimiento académico, el aprendizaje atractivo y aumentar el pensamiento creativo de los alumnos. Las conclusiones de 9 entrevistas mostraron que los tres factores siguientes (en orden de importancia) han reducido significativamente la tasa de utilización de la tecnología en las escuelas primarias de la ciudad Qavar. 1- La falta de familiaridad o no tener suficiente dominio de los profesores en la tecnología y su uso en la enseñanza 2- Un gran número de estudiantes y la falta de instalaciones 3- libros de texto voluminosos y no tienen tiempo suficiente.  Qualquer mudança e desenvolvimento efetivo na estrutura cultural, econômica, política, social, etc. da sociedade depende da mudança, transformação e desenvolvimento da instituição mais fundamental da sociedade, como a instituição de ensino. Hoje, estamos testemunhando importantes avanços e desenvolvimentos na educação em muitos países desenvolvidos ou em desenvolvimento, com o advento de novas tecnologias educacionais no processo de aprendizagem do ensino. É necessário estabelecer um sistema de ensino de acordo com o tempo e as condições usando as ferramentas mais importantes para o desenvolvimento e promoção, ou seja, novas tecnologias educacionais, aumentar a conscientização e melhorar a capacidade do capital humano e formação de pessoal qualificado e comprometido e agir sobre o desenvolvimento sustentável, a modernidade eficaz e eficiência estrada para superar estruturas tradicionais e antigas, entrando no domínio da concorrência científica, superar desafios e alcançar ideais ideais de sociedade, mas como eles foram capazes de escolas primário da cidade de Qavar desempenham o papel da tecnologia moderna em seu sistema educacional? No início, o método de pesquisa era o método de biblioteca e, em seguida, era um método qualitativo. Os dados foram coletados por meio de entrevista semiestruturada e analisados ​​por meio do método de análise tópica. Os resultados da primeira parte deste estudo sugerem que o uso da tecnologia tem sido eficaz na mudança de atitude, a aquisição de competências e melhoria da capacitação e desempenho acadêmico dos professores, aprendendo atraente e aumentar o pensamento criativo dos alunos. Os resultados de 9 entrevistas mostraram que os três fatores a seguir (em ordem de importância) reduziram significativamente a taxa de utilização de tecnologia nas escolas primárias da cidade de Qavar. 1- Falta de competência suficiente dos professores em tecnologia e seu uso no ensino 2- um grande número de alunos e falta de instalações 3- livros-texto volumosos e não ter tempo suficiente

Mapping 123 million neonatal, infant and child deaths between 2000 and 2017

Since 2000, many countries have achieved considerable success in improving child survival, but localized progress remains unclear. To inform efforts towards United Nations Sustainable Development Goal 3.2—to end preventable child deaths by 2030—we need consistently estimated data at the subnational level regarding child mortality rates and trends. Here we quantified, for the period 2000–2017, the subnational variation in mortality rates and number of deaths of neonates, infants and children under 5 years of age within 99 low- and middle-income countries using a geostatistical survival model. We estimated that 32% of children under 5 in these countries lived in districts that had attained rates of 25 or fewer child deaths per 1,000 live births by 2017, and that 58% of child deaths between 2000 and 2017 in these countries could have been averted in the absence of geographical inequality. This study enables the identification of high-mortality clusters, patterns of progress and geographical inequalities to inform appropriate investments and implementations that will help to improve the health of all populations

Global, regional, and national burden of traumatic brain injury and spinal cord injury, 1990-2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016.

Traumatic brain injury (TBI) and spinal cord injury (SCI) are increasingly recognised as global health priorities in view of the preventability of most injuries and the complex and expensive medical care they necessitate. We aimed to measure the incidence, prevalence, and years of life lived with disability (YLDs) for TBI and SCI from all causes of injury in every country, to describe how these measures have changed between 1990 and 2016, and to estimate the proportion of TBI and SCI cases caused by different types of injury. METHODS: We used results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors (GBD) Study 2016 to measure the global, regional, and national burden of TBI and SCI by age and sex. We measured the incidence and prevalence of all causes of injury requiring medical care in inpatient and outpatient records, literature studies, and survey data. By use of clinical record data, we estimated the proportion of each cause of injury that required medical care that would result in TBI or SCI being considered as the nature of injury. We used literature studies to establish standardised mortality ratios and applied differential equations to convert incidence to prevalence of long-term disability. Finally, we applied GBD disability weights to calculate YLDs. We used a Bayesian meta-regression tool for epidemiological modelling, used cause-specific mortality rates for non-fatal estimation, and adjusted our results for disability experienced with comorbid conditions. We also analysed results on the basis of the Socio-demographic Index, a compound measure of income per capita, education, and fertility. FINDINGS: In 2016, there were 27·08 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 24·30-30·30 million) new cases of TBI and 0·93 million (0·78-1·16 million) new cases of SCI, with age-standardised incidence rates of 369 (331-412) per 100 000 population for TBI and 13 (11-16) per 100 000 for SCI. In 2016, the number of prevalent cases of TBI was 55·50 million (53·40-57·62 million) and of SCI was 27·04 million (24·98-30·15 million). From 1990 to 2016, the age-standardised prevalence of TBI increased by 8·4% (95% UI 7·7 to 9·2), whereas that of SCI did not change significantly (-0·2% [-2·1 to 2·7]). Age-standardised incidence rates increased by 3·6% (1·8 to 5·5) for TBI, but did not change significantly for SCI (-3·6% [-7·4 to 4·0]). TBI caused 8·1 million (95% UI 6·0-10·4 million) YLDs and SCI caused 9·5 million (6·7-12·4 million) YLDs in 2016, corresponding to age-standardised rates of 111 (82-141) per 100 000 for TBI and 130 (90-170) per 100 000 for SCI. Falls and road injuries were the leading causes of new cases of TBI and SCI in most regions. INTERPRETATION: TBI and SCI constitute a considerable portion of the global injury burden and are caused primarily by falls and road injuries. The increase in incidence of TBI over time might continue in view of increases in population density, population ageing, and increasing use of motor vehicles, motorcycles, and bicycles. The number of individuals living with SCI is expected to increase in view of population growth, which is concerning because of the specialised care that people with SCI can require. Our study was limited by data sparsity in some regions, and it will be important to invest greater resources in collection of data for TBI and SCI to improve the accuracy of future assessments

The global burden of cancer attributable to risk factors, 2010-19 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background Understanding the magnitude of cancer burden attributable to potentially modifiable risk factors is crucial for development of effective prevention and mitigation strategies. We analysed results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 to inform cancer control planning efforts globally. Methods The GBD 2019 comparative risk assessment framework was used to estimate cancer burden attributable to behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risk factors. A total of 82 risk-outcome pairs were included on the basis of the World Cancer Research Fund criteria. Estimated cancer deaths and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) in 2019 and change in these measures between 2010 and 2019 are presented. Findings Globally, in 2019, the risk factors included in this analysis accounted for 4.45 million (95% uncertainty interval 4.01-4.94) deaths and 105 million (95.0-116) DALYs for both sexes combined, representing 44.4% (41.3-48.4) of all cancer deaths and 42.0% (39.1-45.6) of all DALYs. There were 2.88 million (2.60-3.18) risk-attributable cancer deaths in males (50.6% [47.8-54.1] of all male cancer deaths) and 1.58 million (1.36-1.84) risk-attributable cancer deaths in females (36.3% [32.5-41.3] of all female cancer deaths). The leading risk factors at the most detailed level globally for risk-attributable cancer deaths and DALYs in 2019 for both sexes combined were smoking, followed by alcohol use and high BMI. Risk-attributable cancer burden varied by world region and Socio-demographic Index (SDI), with smoking, unsafe sex, and alcohol use being the three leading risk factors for risk-attributable cancer DALYs in low SDI locations in 2019, whereas DALYs in high SDI locations mirrored the top three global risk factor rankings. From 2010 to 2019, global risk-attributable cancer deaths increased by 20.4% (12.6-28.4) and DALYs by 16.8% (8.8-25.0), with the greatest percentage increase in metabolic risks (34.7% [27.9-42.8] and 33.3% [25.8-42.0]). Interpretation The leading risk factors contributing to global cancer burden in 2019 were behavioural, whereas metabolic risk factors saw the largest increases between 2010 and 2019. Reducing exposure to these modifiable risk factors would decrease cancer mortality and DALY rates worldwide, and policies should be tailored appropriately to local cancer risk factor burden. Copyright (C) 2022 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license.Peer reviewe

Global, regional, and national cancer incidence, mortality, years of life lost, years lived with disability, and disability-Adjusted life-years for 29 cancer groups, 1990 to 2017 : A systematic analysis for the global burden of disease study

Importance: Cancer and other noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) are now widely recognized as a threat to global development. The latest United Nations high-level meeting on NCDs reaffirmed this observation and also highlighted the slow progress in meeting the 2011 Political Declaration on the Prevention and Control of Noncommunicable Diseases and the third Sustainable Development Goal. Lack of situational analyses, priority setting, and budgeting have been identified as major obstacles in achieving these goals. All of these have in common that they require information on the local cancer epidemiology. The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study is uniquely poised to provide these crucial data. Objective: To describe cancer burden for 29 cancer groups in 195 countries from 1990 through 2017 to provide data needed for cancer control planning. Evidence Review: We used the GBD study estimation methods to describe cancer incidence, mortality, years lived with disability, years of life lost, and disability-Adjusted life-years (DALYs). Results are presented at the national level as well as by Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite indicator of income, educational attainment, and total fertility rate. We also analyzed the influence of the epidemiological vs the demographic transition on cancer incidence. Findings: In 2017, there were 24.5 million incident cancer cases worldwide (16.8 million without nonmelanoma skin cancer [NMSC]) and 9.6 million cancer deaths. The majority of cancer DALYs came from years of life lost (97%), and only 3% came from years lived with disability. The odds of developing cancer were the lowest in the low SDI quintile (1 in 7) and the highest in the high SDI quintile (1 in 2) for both sexes. In 2017, the most common incident cancers in men were NMSC (4.3 million incident cases); tracheal, bronchus, and lung (TBL) cancer (1.5 million incident cases); and prostate cancer (1.3 million incident cases). The most common causes of cancer deaths and DALYs for men were TBL cancer (1.3 million deaths and 28.4 million DALYs), liver cancer (572000 deaths and 15.2 million DALYs), and stomach cancer (542000 deaths and 12.2 million DALYs). For women in 2017, the most common incident cancers were NMSC (3.3 million incident cases), breast cancer (1.9 million incident cases), and colorectal cancer (819000 incident cases). The leading causes of cancer deaths and DALYs for women were breast cancer (601000 deaths and 17.4 million DALYs), TBL cancer (596000 deaths and 12.6 million DALYs), and colorectal cancer (414000 deaths and 8.3 million DALYs). Conclusions and Relevance: The national epidemiological profiles of cancer burden in the GBD study show large heterogeneities, which are a reflection of different exposures to risk factors, economic settings, lifestyles, and access to care and screening. The GBD study can be used by policy makers and other stakeholders to develop and improve national and local cancer control in order to achieve the global targets and improve equity in cancer care. © 2019 American Medical Association. All rights reserved.Peer reviewe