58 research outputs found
Aristotle's lobster: the image in the text
The Anatomai, a lost work written by Aristotle, must have contained a collection of various drawings and figures of species as well as their organs. In his texts (mainly the Historia animalium), Aristotle is often referring to the drawings after the description of species. Our study applies the method of the comparative view (âVergleichendes Sehenâ) to provide an access to and reconstruction of Aristotleâs lost illustrations based on his textual descriptions. As an example, we chose the treatment of the European lobster (Homarus gammarus L., 1758) in the Aristotelian corpus as a case study. First, we analyse the etymology of the Greek term astakĂłs referring to the lobster and provide an overview on the putative synonyms. Second, we confront the textual basis of the description with several questions concerning the degree of abstraction, the relation between text and image, and the spatial orientation of the image. Finally, we present a step-by-step reconstruction of Aristotleâs illustrations of the lobster based on the various passages dealing with its anatomy in the text of the Historia animalium. The problems which arise by a confrontation of the textual basis with hypothetical images are discussed at a more general level. We conclude that this kind of a text-based image reconstruction is only possible if the object described by Aristotle is unambiguously identifiable and still visually accessible
RadioaktivitĂ€t im Unterricht.: Ergebnisse einer reprĂ€sentativen Erhebung zur Didaktik der auditiven Medien bei LehrerInnen in Ăsterreich.
Die sechs AutorInnen untersuchen die Vielzahl von Audioproduktionsmethoden in pĂ€dagogischen Handlungsfeldern Ăsterreichs anhand einer empirischen Studie. Dabei wird deutlich, dass Audioproduktionen mediendidaktisch sehr gut eingesetzt werden können, aber als Methode unterschĂ€tzt werden
Begeisterung ist die Voraussetzung: Eine Analyse qualitativer Interviews mit Lehrenden zur praktischen Audioproduktion im Unterricht an österreichischen Schulen aus Sicht des medialen Habitus
Im Zeitraum von MĂ€rz bis Juni 2014 wurden im Rahmen des Forschungsprojektes "Audioproduktion als Lernform" qualitative Interviews mit LehrerInnen durchgefĂŒhrt, die mit Audioproduktionen im Unterricht gearbeitet haben. Die Ergebnisse zeigen, dass die Audioproduktion als mediendidaktische Unterrichtsmethode in vielen Schultypen und FĂ€chern erfolgreich verwendet wird. Der Einsatz wird entweder durch LehrplĂ€ne oder persönliche PrĂ€ferenzen der Lehrenden motiviert, die als Ausdruck des medialen Habitus verstanden werden können
Host and environmental determinants of polychlorinated aromatic hydrocarbons in serum of adolescents.
This study investigated host factors and environmental factors as potential determinants of polychlorinated aromatic hydrocarbons (PCAHs) in serum of adolescents. We recruited 200 participants (80 boys and 120 girls), with a mean age of 17.4 years (SD, 0.8), in Belgium from a rural control area (Peer) and from two polluted suburbs of Antwerp where a nonferrous smelter (Hoboken) and waste incinerators (Wilrijk) are located. We quantified polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs; congeners 138, 153, and 180) in serum by gas chromatography and obtained the toxic equivalents (TEQs) of PCAHs in serum with the chemically activated luciferase gene expression bioassay (CALUX). Serum PCB concentration was higher in boys than in girls (1.67 vs. 1.02 nmol/L or 377 vs. 210 pmol/g serum lipids; p< 0.001). In the whole adolescent group, multiple regression showed that serum PCB concentration decreased 0.06 nmol/L per 1% increase in body fat content (p< 0.001) and increased 0.39 nmol/L and 0.14 nmol/L per 1 mmol/L increase in serum concentrations of triglycerides (p < 0.001) and cholesterol (p = 0.002), respectively. Host factors explained 44% of the serum PCB variance. In the same model, serum PCB concentration increased 0.14 nmol/L with 10 weeks of breast-feeding (p< 0.001) and 0.06 nmol/L with intake of 10 g animal fat per day (p < 0.001), and was associated with residence in the waste incinerator area (9% higher; p = 0.04); 11% of the variance could be explained by these environmental factors. The geometric mean of the serum TEQ value was similar in boys and girls (0.15 TEQ ng/L or 33.0 pg/g serum lipids). In multiple regression, TEQ in serum decreased 0.03 ng/L per centimeter increase in triceps skinfold (p = 0.006) and was 29% higher in subjects living close to the nonferrous smelter (p < 0.001). This study showed that in 16- to 18-year-old teenagers host factors are important determinants of serum concentrations of PCAHs, whereas environmentally related determinants may to some extent contribute independently to human exposure to these persistent chemicals in the environment
Human Practice. Digital Ecologies. Our Future. : 14. Internationale Tagung Wirtschaftsinformatik (WI 2019) : Tagungsband
Erschienen bei: universi - UniversitÀtsverlag Siegen. - ISBN: 978-3-96182-063-4Aus dem Inhalt:
Track 1: Produktion & Cyber-Physische Systeme
Requirements and a Meta Model for Exchanging Additive Manufacturing Capacities
Service Systems, Smart Service Systems and Cyber- Physical SystemsâWhatâs the difference? Towards a Unified Terminology
Developing an Industrial IoT Platform â Trade-off between Horizontal and Vertical Approaches
Machine Learning und Complex Event Processing: Effiziente Echtzeitauswertung am Beispiel Smart Factory
Sensor retrofit for a coffee machine as condition monitoring and predictive maintenance use case
Stakeholder-Analyse zum Einsatz IIoT-basierter Frischeinformationen in der Lebensmittelindustrie
Towards a Framework for Predictive Maintenance Strategies in Mechanical Engineering - A Method-Oriented Literature Analysis
Development of a matching platform for the requirement-oriented selection of cyber physical systems for SMEs
Track 2: Logistic Analytics
An Empirical Study of Customersâ Behavioral Intention to Use Ridepooling Services â An Extension of the Technology Acceptance Model
Modeling Delay Propagation and Transmission in Railway Networks
What is the impact of company specific adjustments on the acceptance and diffusion of logistic standards?
Robust Route Planning in Intermodal Urban Traffic
Track 3: Unternehmensmodellierung & Informationssystemgestaltung (Enterprise Modelling & Information Systems Design)
Work System Modeling Method with Different Levels of Specificity and Rigor for Different Stakeholder Purposes
Resolving Inconsistencies in Declarative Process Models based on Culpability Measurement
Strategic Analysis in the Realm of Enterprise Modeling â On the Example of Blockchain-Based Initiatives for the Electricity Sector
Zwischenbetriebliche Integration in der Möbelbranche: Konfigurationen und Einflussfaktoren
Novicesâ Quality Perceptions and the Acceptance of Process Modeling Grammars
Entwicklung einer Definition fĂŒr Social Business Objects (SBO) zur Modellierung von Unternehmensinformationen
Designing a Reference Model for Digital Product Configurators
Terminology for Evolving Design Artifacts
Business Role-Object Specification: A Language for Behavior-aware Structural Modeling of Business Objects
Generating Smart Glasses-based Information Systems with BPMN4SGA: A BPMN Extension for Smart Glasses Applications
Using Blockchain in Peer-to-Peer Carsharing to Build Trust in the Sharing Economy
Testing in Big Data: An Architecture Pattern for a Development Environment for Innovative, Integrated and Robust Applications
Track 4: Lern- und Wissensmanagement (e-Learning and Knowledge Management)
eGovernment Competences revisited â A Literature Review on necessary Competences in a Digitalized Public Sector
Say Hello to Your New Automated Tutor â A Structured Literature Review on Pedagogical Conversational Agents
Teaching the Digital Transformation of Business Processes: Design of a Simulation Game for Information Systems Education
Conceptualizing Immersion for Individual Learning in Virtual Reality
Designing a Flipped Classroom Course â a Process Model
The Influence of Risk-Taking on Knowledge Exchange and Combination
Gamified Feedback durch Avatare im Mobile Learning
Alexa, Can You Help Me Solve That Problem? - Understanding the Value of Smart Personal Assistants as Tutors for Complex Problem Tasks
Track 5: Data Science & Business Analytics
Matching with Bundle Preferences: Tradeoff between Fairness and Truthfulness
Applied image recognition: guidelines for using deep learning models in practice
Yield Prognosis for the Agrarian Management of Vineyards using Deep Learning for Object Counting
Reading Between the Lines of Qualitative Data â How to Detect Hidden Structure Based on Codes
Online Auctions with Dual-Threshold Algorithms: An Experimental Study and Practical Evaluation
Design Features of Non-Financial Reward Programs for Online Reviews: Evaluation based on Google Maps Data
Topic Embeddings â A New Approach to Classify Very Short Documents Based on Predefined Topics
Leveraging Unstructured Image Data for Product Quality Improvement
Decision Support for Real Estate Investors: Improving Real Estate Valuation with 3D City Models and Points of Interest
Knowledge Discovery from CVs: A Topic Modeling Procedure
Online Product Descriptions â Boost for your Sales?
EntscheidungsunterstĂŒtzung durch historienbasierte Dienstreihenfolgeplanung mit Pattern
A Semi-Automated Approach for Generating Online Review Templates
Machine Learning goes Measure Management: Leveraging Anomaly Detection and Parts Search to Improve Product-Cost Optimization
Bedeutung von Predictive Analytics fĂŒr den theoretischen Erkenntnisgewinn in der IS-Forschung
Track 6: Digitale Transformation und Dienstleistungen
Heuristic Theorizing in Software Development: Deriving Design Principles for Smart Glasses-based Systems
Mirroring E-service for Brick and Mortar Retail: An Assessment and Survey
Taxonomy of Digital Platforms: A Platform Architecture Perspective
Value of Star Players in the Digital Age
Local Shopping Platforms â Harnessing Locational Advantages for the Digital Transformation of Local Retail Outlets: A Content Analysis
A Socio-Technical Approach to Manage Analytics-as-a-Service â Results of an Action Design Research Project
Characterizing Approaches to Digital Transformation: Development of a Taxonomy of Digital Units
Expectations vs. Reality â Benefits of Smart Services in the Field of Tension between Industry and Science
Innovation Networks and Digital Innovation: How Organizations Use Innovation Networks in a Digitized Environment
Characterising Social Reading Platformsâ A Taxonomy-Based Approach to Structure the Field
Less Complex than Expected â What Really Drives IT Consulting Value
Modularity Canvas â A Framework for Visualizing Potentials of Service Modularity
Towards a Conceptualization of Capabilities for Innovating Business Models in the Industrial Internet of Things
A Taxonomy of Barriers to Digital Transformation
Ambidexterity in Service Innovation Research: A Systematic Literature Review
Design and success factors of an online solution for cross-pillar pension information
Track 7: IT-Management und -Strategie
A Frugal Support Structure for New Software Implementations in SMEs
How to Structure a Company-wide Adoption of Big Data Analytics
The Changing Roles of Innovation Actors and Organizational Antecedents in the Digital Age
Bewertung des Kundennutzens von Chatbots fĂŒr den Einsatz im Servicedesk
Understanding the Benefits of Agile Software Development in Regulated Environments
Are Employees Following the Rules? On the Effectiveness of IT Consumerization Policies
Agile and Attached: The Impact of Agile Practices on Agile Team Membersâ Affective Organisational Commitment
The Complexity Trap â Limits of IT Flexibility for Supporting Organizational Agility in Decentralized Organizations
Platform Openness: A Systematic Literature Review and Avenues for Future Research
Competence, Fashion and the Case of Blockchain
The Digital Platform Otto.de: A Case Study of Growth, Complexity, and Generativity
Track 8: eHealth & alternde Gesellschaft
Security and Privacy of Personal Health Records in Cloud Computing Environments â An Experimental Exploration of the Impact of Storage Solutions and Data Breaches
Patientenintegration durch Pfadsysteme
Digitalisierung in der StressprĂ€vention â eine qualitative Interviewstudie zu Nutzenpotenzialen
User Dynamics in Mental Health Forums â A Sentiment Analysis Perspective
Intent and the Use of Wearables in the Workplace â A Model Development
Understanding Patient Pathways in the Context of Integrated Health Care Services - Implications from a Scoping Review
Understanding the Habitual Use of Wearable Activity Trackers
On the Fit in Fitness Apps: Studying the Interaction of Motivational Affordances and Usersâ Goal Orientations in Affecting the Benefits Gained
Gamification in Health Behavior Change Support Systems - A Synthesis of Unintended Side Effects
Investigating the Influence of Information Incongruity on Trust-Relations within Trilateral Healthcare Settings
Track 9: Krisen- und KontinuitÀtsmanagement
Potentiale von IKT beim Ausfall kritischer Infrastrukturen: Erwartungen, Informationsgewinnung und Mediennutzung der Zivilbevölkerung in Deutschland
Fake News Perception in Germany: A Representative Study of Peopleâs Attitudes and Approaches to Counteract Disinformation
Analyzing the Potential of Graphical Building Information for Fire Emergency Responses: Findings from a Controlled Experiment
Track 10: Human-Computer Interaction
Towards a Taxonomy of Platforms for Conversational Agent Design
Measuring Service Encounter Satisfaction with Customer Service Chatbots using Sentiment Analysis
Self-Tracking and Gamification: Analyzing the Interplay of Motivations, Usage and Motivation Fulfillment
Erfolgsfaktoren von Augmented-Reality-Applikationen: Analyse von Nutzerrezensionen mit dem Review-Mining-Verfahren
Designing Dynamic Decision Support for Electronic Requirements Negotiations
Who is Stressed by Using ICTs? A Qualitative Comparison Analysis with the Big Five Personality Traits to Understand Technostress
Walking the Middle Path: How Medium Trade-Off Exposure Leads to Higher Consumer Satisfaction in Recommender Agents
Theory-Based Affordances of Utilitarian, Hedonic and Dual-Purposed Technologies: A Literature Review
Eliciting Customer Preferences for Shopping Companion Apps: A Service Quality Approach
The Role of Early User Participation in Discovering Software â A Case Study from the Context of Smart Glasses
The Fluidity of the Self-Concept as a Framework to Explain the Motivation to Play Video Games
Heart over Heels? An Empirical Analysis of the Relationship between Emotions and Review Helpfulness for Experience and Credence Goods
Track 11: Information Security and Information Privacy
Unfolding Concerns about Augmented Reality Technologies: A Qualitative Analysis of User Perceptions
To (Psychologically) Own Data is to Protect Data: How Psychological Ownership Determines Protective Behavior in a Work and Private Context
Understanding Data Protection Regulations from a Data Management Perspective: A Capability-Based Approach to EU-GDPR
On the Difficulties of Incentivizing Online Privacy through Transparency: A Qualitative Survey of the German Health Insurance Market
What is Your Selfie Worth? A Field Study on Individualsâ Valuation of Personal Data
Justification of Mass Surveillance: A Quantitative Study
An Exploratory Study of Risk Perception for Data Disclosure to a Network of Firms
Track 12: Umweltinformatik und nachhaltiges Wirtschaften
KommunikationsfĂ€den im Nadelöhr â Fachliche Prozessmodellierung der Nachhaltigkeitskommunikation am Kapitalmarkt
Potentiale und Herausforderungen der Materialflusskostenrechnung
Computing Incentives for User-Based Relocation in Carsharing
Sustainabilityâs Coming Home: Preliminary Design Principles for the Sustainable Smart District
Substitution of hazardous chemical substances using Deep Learning and t-SNE
A Hierarchy of DSMLs in Support of Product Life-Cycle Assessment
A Survey of Smart Energy Services for Private Households
Door-to-Door Mobility Integrators as Keystone Organizations of Smart Ecosystems: Resources and Value Co-Creation â A Literature Review
Ein EntscheidungsunterstĂŒtzungssystem zur ökonomischen Bewertung von Mieterstrom auf Basis der Clusteranalyse
Discovering Blockchain for Sustainable Product-Service Systems to enhance the Circular Economy
Digitale RĂŒckverfolgbarkeit von Lebensmitteln: Eine verbraucherinformatische Studie
Umweltbewusstsein durch audiovisuelles Content Marketing? Eine experimentelle Untersuchung zur Konsumentenbewertung nachhaltiger Smartphones
Towards Predictive Energy Management in Information Systems: A Research Proposal
A Web Browser-Based Application for Processing and Analyzing Material Flow Models using the MFCA Methodology
Track 13: Digital Work - Social, mobile, smart
On Conversational Agents in Information Systems Research: Analyzing the Past to Guide Future Work
The Potential of Augmented Reality for Improving Occupational First Aid
Prevent a Vicious Circle! The Role of Organizational IT-Capability in Attracting IT-affine Applicants
Good, Bad, or Both? Conceptualization and Measurement of Ambivalent User Attitudes Towards AI
A Case Study on Cross-Hierarchical Communication in Digital Work Environments
âShow Me Your People Skillsâ - Employing CEO Branding for Corporate Reputation Management in Social Media
A Multiorganisational Study of the Drivers and Barriers of Enterprise Collaboration Systems-Enabled Change
The More the Merrier? The Effect of Size of Core Team Subgroups on Success of Open Source Projects
The Impact of Anthropomorphic and Functional Chatbot Design Features in Enterprise Collaboration Systems on User Acceptance
Digital Feedback for Digital Work? Affordances and Constraints of a Feedback App at InsurCorp
The Effect of Marker-less Augmented Reality on Task and Learning Performance
Antecedents for Cyberloafing â A Literature Review
Internal Crowd Work as a Source of Empowerment - An Empirical Analysis of the Perception of Employees in a Crowdtesting Project
Track 14: GeschÀftsmodelle und digitales Unternehmertum
Dividing the ICO Jungle: Extracting and Evaluating Design Archetypes
Capturing Value from Data: Exploring Factors Influencing Revenue Model Design for Data-Driven Services
Understanding the Role of Data for Innovating Business Models: A System Dynamics Perspective
Business Model Innovation and Stakeholder: Exploring Mechanisms and Outcomes of Value Creation and Destruction
Business Models for Internet of Things Platforms: Empirical Development of a Taxonomy and Archetypes
Revitalizing established Industrial Companies: State of the Art and Success Principles of Digital Corporate Incubators
When 1+1 is Greater than 2: Concurrence of Additional Digital and Established Business Models within Companies
Special Track 1: Student Track
Investigating Personalized Price Discrimination of Textile-, Electronics- and General Stores in German Online Retail
From Facets to a Universal Definition â An Analysis of IoT Usage in Retail
Is the Technostress Creators Inventory Still an Up-To-Date Measurement Instrument? Results of a Large-Scale Interview Study
Application of Media Synchronicity Theory to Creative Tasks in Virtual Teams Using the Example of Design Thinking
TrustyTweet: An Indicator-based Browser-Plugin to Assist Users in Dealing with Fake News on Twitter
Application of Process Mining Techniques to Support Maintenance-Related Objectives
How Voice Can Change Customer Satisfaction: A Comparative Analysis between E-Commerce and Voice Commerce
Business Process Compliance and Blockchain: How Does the Ethereum Blockchain Address Challenges of Business Process Compliance?
Improving Business Model Configuration through a Question-based Approach
The Influence of Situational Factors and Gamification on Intrinsic Motivation and Learning
Evaluation von ITSM-Tools fĂŒr Integration und Management von Cloud-Diensten am Beispiel von ServiceNow
How Software Promotes the Integration of Sustainability in Business Process Management
Criteria Catalog for Industrial IoT Platforms from the Perspective of the Machine Tool Industry
Special Track 3: Demos & Prototyping
Privacy-friendly User Location Tracking with Smart Devices: The BeaT Prototype
Application-oriented robotics in nursing homes
Augmented Reality for Set-up Processe
Mixed Reality for supporting Remote-Meetings
Gamification zur Motivationssteigerung von Werkern bei der Betriebsdatenerfassung
Automatically Extracting and Analyzing Customer Needs from Twitter: A âNeedminingâ Prototype
GaNEsHA: Opportunities for Sustainable Transportation in Smart Cities
TUCANA: A platform for using local processing power of edge devices for building data-driven services
Demonstrator zur Beschreibung und Visualisierung einer kritischen Infrastruktur
Entwicklung einer alltagsnahen persuasiven App zur Bewegungsmotivation fĂŒr Ă€ltere Nutzerinnen und Nutzer
A browser-based modeling tool for studying the learning of conceptual modeling based on a multi-modal data collection approach
Exergames & Dementia: An interactive System for People with Dementia and their Care-Network
Workshops
Workshop Ethics and Morality in Business Informatics (Workshop Ethik und Moral in der Wirtschaftsinformatik â EMoWIâ19)
Model-Based Compliance in Information Systems - Foundations, Case Description and Data Set of the MobIS-Challenge for Students and Doctoral Candidates
Report of the Workshop on Concepts and Methods of Identifying Digital Potentials in Information Management
Control of Systemic Risks in Global Networks - A Grand Challenge to Information Systems Research
Die Mitarbeiter von morgen - Kompetenzen kĂŒnftiger Mitarbeiter im Bereich Business Analytics
Digitaler Konsum: Herausforderungen und Chancen der Verbraucherinformati
Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950â2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
Background:
Population estimates underpin demographic and epidemiological research and are used to track progress on numerous international indicators of health and development. To date, internationally available estimates of population and fertility, although useful, have not been produced with transparent and replicable methods and do not use standardised estimates of mortality. We present single-calendar year and single-year of age estimates of fertility and population by sex with standardised and replicable methods.
Methods:
We estimated population in 195 locations by single year of age and single calendar year from 1950 to 2017 with standardised and replicable methods. We based the estimates on the demographic balancing equation, with inputs of fertility, mortality, population, and migration data. Fertility data came from 7817 location-years of vital registration data, 429 surveys reporting complete birth histories, and 977 surveys and censuses reporting summary birth histories. We estimated age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs; the annual number of livebirths to women of a specified age group per 1000 women in that age group) by use of spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and used the ASFRs to estimate total fertility rates (TFRs; the average number of children a woman would bear if she survived through the end of the reproductive age span [age 10â54 years] and experienced at each age a particular set of ASFRs observed in the year of interest). Because of sparse data, fertility at ages 10â14 years and 50â54 years was estimated from data on fertility in women aged 15â19 years and 45â49 years, through use of linear regression. Age-specific mortality data came from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 estimates. Data on population came from 1257 censuses and 761 population registry location-years and were adjusted for underenumeration and age misreporting with standard demographic methods. Migration was estimated with the GBD Bayesian demographic balancing model, after incorporating information about refugee migration into the model prior. Final population estimates used the cohort-component method of population projection, with inputs of fertility, mortality, and migration data. Population uncertainty was estimated by use of out-of-sample predictive validity testing. With these data, we estimated the trends in population by age and sex and in fertility by age between 1950 and 2017 in 195 countries and territories.
Findings:
From 1950 to 2017, TFRs decreased by 49·4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 46·4â52·0). The TFR decreased from 4·7 livebirths (4·5â4·9) to 2·4 livebirths (2·2â2·5), and the ASFR of mothers aged 10â19 years decreased from 37 livebirths (34â40) to 22 livebirths (19â24) per 1000 women. Despite reductions in the TFR, the global population has been increasing by an average of 83·8 million people per year since 1985. The global population increased by 197·2% (193·3â200·8) since 1950, from 2·6 billion (2·5â2·6) to 7·6 billion (7·4â7·9) people in 2017; much of this increase was in the proportion of the global population in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. The global annual rate of population growth increased between 1950 and 1964, when it peaked at 2·0%; this rate then remained nearly constant until 1970 and then decreased to 1·1% in 2017. Population growth rates in the southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania GBD super-region decreased from 2·5% in 1963 to 0·7% in 2017, whereas in sub-Saharan Africa, population growth rates were almost at the highest reported levels ever in 2017, when they were at 2·7%. The global average age increased from 26·6 years in 1950 to 32·1 years in 2017, and the proportion of the population that is of working age (age 15â64 years) increased from 59·9% to 65·3%. At the national level, the TFR decreased in all countries and territories between 1950 and 2017; in 2017, TFRs ranged from a low of 1·0 livebirths (95% UI 0·9â1·2) in Cyprus to a high of 7·1 livebirths (6·8â7·4) in Niger. The TFR under age 25 years (TFU25; number of livebirths expected by age 25 years for a hypothetical woman who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) in 2017 ranged from 0·08 livebirths (0·07â0·09) in South Korea to 2·4 livebirths (2·2â2·6) in Niger, and the TFR over age 30 years (TFO30; number of livebirths expected for a hypothetical woman ageing from 30 to 54 years who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) ranged from a low of 0·3 livebirths (0·3â0·4) in Puerto Rico to a high of 3·1 livebirths (3·0â3·2) in Niger. TFO30 was higher than TFU25 in 145 countries and territories in 2017. 33 countries had a negative population growth rate from 2010 to 2017, most of which were located in central, eastern, and western Europe, whereas population growth rates of more than 2·0% were seen in 33 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2017, less than 65% of the national population was of working age in 12 of 34 high-income countries, and less than 50% of the national population was of working age in Mali, Chad, and Niger.
Interpretation:
Population trends create demographic dividends and headwinds (ie, economic benefits and detriments) that affect national economies and determine national planning needs. Although TFRs are decreasing, the global population continues to grow as mortality declines, with diverse patterns at the national level and across age groups. To our knowledge, this is the first study to provide transparent and replicable estimates of population and fertility, which can be used to inform decision making and to monitor progress
Global, regional, and national disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 359 diseases and injuries and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017.
How long one lives, how many years of life are spent in good and poor health, and how the population's state of health and leading causes of disability change over time all have implications for policy, planning, and provision of services. We comparatively assessed the patterns and trends of healthy life expectancy (HALE), which quantifies the number of years of life expected to be lived in good health, and the complementary measure of disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), a composite measure of disease burden capturing both premature mortality and prevalence and severity of ill health, for 359 diseases and injuries for 195 countries and territories over the past 28 years. Methods We used data for age-specific mortality rates, years of life lost (YLLs) due to premature mortality, and years lived with disability (YLDs) from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 to calculate HALE and DALYs from 1990 to 2017. We calculated HALE using age-specific mortality rates and YLDs per capita for each location, age, sex, and year. We calculated DALYs for 359 causes as the sum of YLLs and YLDs. We assessed how observed HALE and DALYs differed by country and sex from expected trends based on Socio-demographic Index (SDI). We also analysed HALE by decomposing years of life gained into years spent in good health and in poor health, between 1990 and 2017, and extra years lived by females compared with males. Findings Globally, from 1990 to 2017, life expectancy at birth increased by 7·4 years (95% uncertainty interval 7·1-7·8), from 65·6 years (65·3-65·8) in 1990 to 73·0 years (72·7-73·3) in 2017. The increase in years of life varied from 5·1 years (5·0-5·3) in high SDI countries to 12·0 years (11·3-12·8) in low SDI countries. Of the additional years of life expected at birth, 26·3% (20·1-33·1) were expected to be spent in poor health in high SDI countries compared with 11·7% (8·8-15·1) in low-middle SDI countries. HALE at birth increased by 6·3 years (5·9-6·7), from 57·0 years (54·6-59·1) in 1990 to 63·3 years (60·5-65·7) in 2017. The increase varied from 3·8 years (3·4-4·1) in high SDI countries to 10·5 years (9·8-11·2) in low SDI countries. Even larger variations in HALE than these were observed between countries, ranging from 1·0 year (0·4-1·7) in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines (62·4 years [59·9-64·7] in 1990 to 63·5 years [60·9-65·8] in 2017) to 23·7 years (21·9-25·6) in Eritrea (30·7 years [28·9-32·2] in 1990 to 54·4 years [51·5-57·1] in 2017). In most countries, the increase in HALE was smaller than the increase in overall life expectancy, indicating more years lived in poor health. In 180 of 195 countries and territories, females were expected to live longer than males in 2017, with extra years lived varying from 1·4 years (0·6-2·3) in Algeria to 11·9 years (10·9-12·9) in Ukraine. Of the extra years gained, the proportion spent in poor health varied largely across countries, with less than 20% of additional years spent in poor health in Bosnia and Herzegovina, Burundi, and Slovakia, whereas in Bahrain all the extra years were spent in poor health. In 2017, the highest estimate of HALE at birth was in Singapore for both females (75·8 years [72·4-78·7]) and males (72·6 years [69·8-75·0]) and the lowest estimates were in Central African Republic (47·0 years [43·7-50·2] for females and 42·8 years [40·1-45·6] for males). Globally, in 2017, the five leading causes of DALYs were neonatal disorders, ischaemic heart disease, stroke, lower respiratory infections, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. Between 1990 and 2017, age-standardised DALY rates decreased by 41·3% (38·8-43·5) for communicable diseases and by 49·8% (47·9-51·6) for neonatal disorders. For non-communicable diseases, global DALYs increased by 40·1% (36·8-43·0), although age-standardised DALY rates decreased by 18·1% (16·0-20·2)
Erratum: Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks for 195 countries and territories, 1990â2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
Interpretation: By quantifying levels and trends in exposures to risk factors and the resulting disease burden, this assessment offers insight into where past policy and programme efforts might have been successful and highlights current priorities for public health action. Decreases in behavioural, environmental, and occupational risks have largely offset the effects of population growth and ageing, in relation to trends in absolute burden. Conversely, the combination of increasing metabolic risks and population ageing will probably continue to drive the increasing trends in non-communicable diseases at the global level, which presents both a public health challenge and opportunity. We see considerable spatiotemporal heterogeneity in levels of risk exposure and risk-attributable burden. Although levels of development underlie some of this heterogeneity, O/E ratios show risks for which countries are overperforming or underperforming relative to their level of development. As such, these ratios provide a benchmarking tool to help to focus local decision making. Our findings reinforce the importance of both risk exposure monitoring and epidemiological research to assess causal connections between risks and health outcomes, and they highlight the usefulness of the GBD study in synthesising data to draw comprehensive and robust conclusions that help to inform good policy and strategic health planning
Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
BACKGROUND: Population estimates underpin demographic and epidemiological research and are used to track progress on numerous international indicators of health and development. To date, internationally available estimates of population and fertility, although useful, have not been produced with transparent and replicable methods and do not use standardised estimates of mortality. We present single-calendar year and single-year of age estimates of fertility and population by sex with standardised and replicable methods. METHODS: We estimated population in 195 locations by single year of age and single calendar year from 1950 to 2017 with standardised and replicable methods. We based the estimates on the demographic balancing equation, with inputs of fertility, mortality, population, and migration data. Fertility data came from 7817 location-years of vital registration data, 429 surveys reporting complete birth histories, and 977 surveys and censuses reporting summary birth histories. We estimated age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs; the annual number of livebirths to women of a specified age group per 1000 women in that age group) by use of spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and used the ASFRs to estimate total fertility rates (TFRs; the average number of children a woman would bear if she survived through the end of the reproductive age span [age 10-54 years] and experienced at each age a particular set of ASFRs observed in the year of interest). Because of sparse data, fertility at ages 10-14 years and 50-54 years was estimated from data on fertility in women aged 15-19 years and 45-49 years, through use of linear regression. Age-specific mortality data came from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 estimates. Data on population came from 1257 censuses and 761 population registry location-years and were adjusted for underenumeration and age misreporting with standard demographic methods. Migration was estimated with the GBD Bayesian demographic balancing model, after incorporating information about refugee migration into the model prior. Final population estimates used the cohort-component method of population projection, with inputs of fertility, mortality, and migration data. Population uncertainty was estimated by use of out-of-sample predictive validity testing. With these data, we estimated the trends in population by age and sex and in fertility by age between 1950 and 2017 in 195 countries and territories
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