Market Segmentation Trees

We seek to provide an interpretable framework for segmenting users in a population for personalized decision-making. The standard approach is to perform market segmentation by clustering users according to similarities in their contextual features, after which a "response model" is fit to each segment to model how users respond to personalized decisions. However, this methodology is not ideal for personalization, since two users could in theory have similar features but different response behaviors. We propose a general methodology, Market Segmentation Trees (MSTs), for learning interpretable market segmentations explicitly driven by identifying differences in user response patterns. To demonstrate the versatility of our methodology, we design two new, specialized MST algorithms: (i) Choice Model Trees (CMTs) which can be used to predict a user's choice amongst multiple options, and (ii) Isotonic Regression Trees (IRTs) which can be used to solve the bid landscape forecasting problem. We provide a customizable, open-source code base for training MSTs in Python which employs several strategies for scalability, including parallel processing and warm starts. We provide a theoretical analysis of the asymptotic running time of our training method validating its computational tractability on large datasets. We assess the practical performance of MSTs on several synthetic and real world datasets, showing our method reliably finds market segmentations which accurately model response behavior. Further, when applying MSTs to historical bidding data from a leading demand-side platform (DSP), we show that MSTs consistently achieve a 5-29% improvement in bid landscape forecasting accuracy over the DSP's current model. Our findings indicate that integrating market segmentation with response modeling consistently leads to improvements in response prediction accuracy, thereby aiding personalization

Hybrid kernelised expectation maximisation for Bremsstrahlung SPECT reconstruction in SIRT with 90Y micro-spheres

BACKGROUND: Selective internal radiation therapy with Yttrium-90 microspheres is an effective therapy for liver cancer and liver metastases. Yttrium-90 is mainly a high-energy beta particle emitter. These beta particles emit Bremsstrahlung radiation during their interaction with tissue making post-therapy imaging of the radioactivity distribution feasible. Nevertheless, image quality and quantification is difficult due to the continuous energy spectrum which makes resolution modelling, attenuation and scatter estimation challenging and therefore the dosimetry quantification is inaccurate. As a consequence a reconstruction algorithm able to improve resolution could be beneficial. METHODS: In this study, the hybrid kernelised expectation maximisation (HKEM) is used to improve resolution and contrast and reduce noise, in addition a modified HKEM called frozen HKEM (FHKEM) is investigated to further reduce noise. The iterative part of the FHKEM kernel was frozen at the 72nd sub-iteration. When using ordered subsets algorithms the data is divided in smaller subsets and the smallest algorithm iterative step is called sub-iteration. A NEMA phantom with spherical inserts was used for the optimisation and validation of the algorithm, and data from 5 patients treated with Selective internal radiation therapy were used as proof of clinical relevance of the method. RESULTS: The results suggest a maximum improvement of 56% for region of interest mean recovery coefficient at fixed coefficient of variation and better identification of the hot volumes in the NEMA phantom. Similar improvements were achieved with patient data, showing 47% mean value improvement over the gold standard used in hospitals. CONCLUSIONS: Such quantitative improvements could facilitate improved dosimetry calculations with SPECT when treating patients with Selective internal radiation therapy, as well as provide a more visible position of the cancerous lesions in the liver

Triple modality image reconstruction of PET data using SPECT, PET, CT information increases lesion uptake in images of patients treated with radioembolization with [Formula: see text] micro-spheres.

PURPOSE: Nuclear medicine imaging modalities like computed tomography (CT), single photon emission CT (SPECT) and positron emission tomography (PET) are employed in the field of theranostics to estimate and plan the dose delivered to tumors and the surrounding tissues and to monitor the effect of the therapy. However, therapeutic radionuclides often provide poor images, which translate to inaccurate treatment planning and inadequate monitoring images. Multimodality information can be exploited in the reconstruction to enhance image quality. Triple modality PET/SPECT/CT scanners are particularly useful in this context due to the easier registration process between images. In this study, we propose to include PET, SPECT and CT information in the reconstruction of PET data. The method is applied to Yttrium-90 ([Formula: see text]Y) data. METHODS: Data from a NEMA phantom filled with [Formula: see text]Y were used for validation. PET, SPECT and CT data from 10 patients treated with Selective Internal Radiation Therapy (SIRT) were used. Different combinations of prior images using the Hybrid kernelized expectation maximization were investigated in terms of VOI activity and noise suppression. RESULTS: Our results show that triple modality PET reconstruction provides significantly higher uptake when compared to the method used as standard in the hospital and OSEM. In particular, using CT-guided SPECT images, as guiding information in the PET reconstruction significantly increases uptake quantification on tumoral lesions. CONCLUSION: This work proposes the first triple modality reconstruction method and demonstrates up to 69% lesion uptake increase over standard methods with SIRT [Formula: see text]Y patient data. Promising results are expected for other radionuclide combination used in theranostic applications using PET and SPECT

Prevalence of bat viruses associated with land-use change in the Atlantic Forest, Brazil

Introduction: Bats are critical to maintaining healthy ecosystems and many species are threatened primarily due to global habitat loss. Bats are also important hosts of a range of viruses, several of which have had significant impacts on global public health. The emergence of these viruses has been associated with land-use change and decreased host species richness. Yet, few studies have assessed how bat communities and the viruses they host alter with land-use change, particularly in highly biodiverse sites. Methods: In this study, we investigate the effects of deforestation on bat host species richness and diversity, and viral prevalence and richness across five forested sites and three nearby deforested sites in the interior Atlantic Forest of southern Brazil. Nested-PCR and qPCR were used to amplify and detect viral genetic sequence from six viral families (corona-, adeno-, herpes-, hanta-, paramyxo-, and astro-viridae) in 944 blood, saliva and rectal samples collected from 335 bats. Results: We found that deforested sites had a less diverse bat community than forested sites, but higher viral prevalence and richness after controlling for confounding factors. Viral detection was more likely in juvenile males located in deforested sites. Interestingly, we also found a significant effect of host bat species on viral prevalence indicating that viral taxa were detected more frequently in some species than others. In particular, viruses from the Coronaviridae family were detected more frequently in generalist species compared to specialist species. Discussion: Our findings suggest that deforestation may drive changes in the ecosystem which reduce bat host diversity while increasing the abundance of generalist species which host a wider range of viruses

Treatment with a corticotrophin releasing factor 2 receptor agonist modulates skeletal muscle mass and force production in aged and chronically ill animals

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Muscle weakness is associated with a variety of chronic disorders such as emphysema (EMP) and congestive heart failure (CHF) as well as aging. Therapies to treat muscle weakness associated with chronic disease or aging are lacking. Corticotrophin releasing factor 2 receptor (CRF2R) agonists have been shown to maintain skeletal muscle mass and force production in a variety of acute conditions that lead to skeletal muscle wasting.</p> <p>Hypothesis</p> <p>We hypothesize that treating animals with a CRF2R agonist will maintain skeletal muscle mass and force production in animals with chronic disease and in aged animals.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We utilized animal models of aging, CHF and EMP to evaluate the potential of CRF2R agonist treatment to maintain skeletal muscle mass and force production in aged animals and animals with CHF and EMP.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>In aged rats, we demonstrate that treatment with a CRF2R agonist for up to 3 months results in greater extensor digitorum longus (EDL) force production, EDL mass, soleus mass and soleus force production compared to age matched untreated animals. In the hamster EMP model, we demonstrate that treatment with a CRF2R agonist for up to 5 months results in greater EDL force production in EMP hamsters when compared to vehicle treated EMP hamsters and greater EDL mass and force in normal hamsters when compared to vehicle treated normal hamsters. In the rat CHF model, we demonstrate that treatment with a CRF2R agonist for up to 3 months results in greater EDL and soleus muscle mass and force production in CHF rats and normal rats when compared to the corresponding vehicle treated animals.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>These data demonstrate that the underlying physiological conditions associated with chronic diseases such as CHF and emphysema in addition to aging do not reduce the potential of CRF2R agonists to maintain skeletal muscle mass and force production.</p

The Eleventh and Twelfth Data Releases of the Sloan Digital Sky Survey: Final Data from SDSS-III

The third generation of the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS-III) took data from 2008 to 2014 using the original SDSS wide-field imager, the original and an upgraded multi-object fiber-fed optical spectrograph, a new near-infrared high-resolution spectrograph, and a novel optical interferometer. All of the data from SDSS-III are now made public. In particular, this paper describes Data Release 11 (DR11) including all data acquired through 2013 July, and Data Release 12 (DR12) adding data acquired through 2014 July (including all data included in previous data releases), marking the end of SDSS-III observing. Relative to our previous public release (DR10), DR12 adds one million new spectra of galaxies and quasars from the Baryon Oscillation Spectroscopic Survey (BOSS) over an additional 3000 deg2 of sky, more than triples the number of H-band spectra of stars as part of the Apache Point Observatory (APO) Galactic Evolution Experiment (APOGEE), and includes repeated accurate radial velocity measurements of 5500 stars from the Multi-object APO Radial Velocity Exoplanet Large-area Survey (MARVELS). The APOGEE outputs now include the measured abundances of 15 different elements for each star. In total, SDSS-III added 5200 deg2 of ugriz imaging; 155,520 spectra of 138,099 stars as part of the Sloan Exploration of Galactic Understanding and Evolution 2 (SEGUE-2) survey; 2,497,484 BOSS spectra of 1,372,737 galaxies, 294,512 quasars, and 247,216 stars over 9376 deg2; 618,080 APOGEE spectra of 156,593 stars; and 197,040 MARVELS spectra of 5513 stars. Since its first light in 1998, SDSS has imaged over 1/3 of the Celestial sphere in five bands and obtained over five million astronomical spectra. \ua9 2015. The American Astronomical Society

SDSS-III: Massive Spectroscopic Surveys of the Distant Universe, the Milky Way Galaxy, and Extra-Solar Planetary Systems

Building on the legacy of the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS-I and II), SDSS-III is a program of four spectroscopic surveys on three scientific themes: dark energy and cosmological parameters, the history and structure of the Milky Way, and the population of giant planets around other stars. In keeping with SDSS tradition, SDSS-III will provide regular public releases of all its data, beginning with SDSS DR8 (which occurred in Jan 2011). This paper presents an overview of the four SDSS-III surveys. BOSS will measure redshifts of 1.5 million massive galaxies and Lya forest spectra of 150,000 quasars, using the BAO feature of large scale structure to obtain percent-level determinations of the distance scale and Hubble expansion rate at z<0.7 and at z~2.5. SEGUE-2, which is now completed, measured medium-resolution (R=1800) optical spectra of 118,000 stars in a variety of target categories, probing chemical evolution, stellar kinematics and substructure, and the mass profile of the dark matter halo from the solar neighborhood to distances of 100 kpc. APOGEE will obtain high-resolution (R~30,000), high signal-to-noise (S/N>100 per resolution element), H-band (1.51-1.70 micron) spectra of 10^5 evolved, late-type stars, measuring separate abundances for ~15 elements per star and creating the first high-precision spectroscopic survey of all Galactic stellar populations (bulge, bar, disks, halo) with a uniform set of stellar tracers and spectral diagnostics. MARVELS will monitor radial velocities of more than 8000 FGK stars with the sensitivity and cadence (10-40 m/s, ~24 visits per star) needed to detect giant planets with periods up to two years, providing an unprecedented data set for understanding the formation and dynamical evolution of giant planet systems. (Abridged)Comment: Revised to version published in The Astronomical Journa

Obeticholic acid for the treatment of non-alcoholic steatohepatitis: interim analysis from a multicentre, randomised, placebo-controlled phase 3 trial

Background Non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) is a common type of chronic liver disease that can lead to cirrhosis. Obeticholic acid, a farnesoid X receptor agonist, has been shown to improve the histological features of NASH. Here we report results from a planned interim analysis of an ongoing, phase 3 study of obeticholic acid for NASH. Methods In this multicentre, randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled study, adult patients with definite NASH,non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) activity score of at least 4, and fibrosis stages F2–F3, or F1 with at least oneaccompanying comorbidity, were randomly assigned using an interactive web response system in a 1:1:1 ratio to receive oral placebo, obeticholic acid 10 mg, or obeticholic acid 25 mg daily. Patients were excluded if cirrhosis, other chronic liver disease, elevated alcohol consumption, or confounding conditions were present. The primary endpointsfor the month-18 interim analysis were fibrosis improvement (≥1 stage) with no worsening of NASH, or NASH resolution with no worsening of fibrosis, with the study considered successful if either primary endpoint was met. Primary analyses were done by intention to treat, in patients with fibrosis stage F2–F3 who received at least one dose of treatment and reached, or would have reached, the month 18 visit by the prespecified interim analysis cutoff date. The study also evaluated other histological and biochemical markers of NASH and fibrosis, and safety. This study is ongoing, and registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT02548351, and EudraCT, 20150-025601-6. Findings Between Dec 9, 2015, and Oct 26, 2018, 1968 patients with stage F1–F3 fibrosis were enrolled and received at least one dose of study treatment; 931 patients with stage F2–F3 fibrosis were included in the primary analysis (311 in the placebo group, 312 in the obeticholic acid 10 mg group, and 308 in the obeticholic acid 25 mg group). The fibrosis improvement endpoint was achieved by 37 (12%) patients in the placebo group, 55 (18%) in the obeticholic acid 10 mg group (p=0·045), and 71 (23%) in the obeticholic acid 25 mg group (p=0·0002). The NASH resolution endpoint was not met (25 [8%] patients in the placebo group, 35 [11%] in the obeticholic acid 10 mg group [p=0·18], and 36 [12%] in the obeticholic acid 25 mg group [p=0·13]). In the safety population (1968 patients with fibrosis stages F1–F3), the most common adverse event was pruritus (123 [19%] in the placebo group, 183 [28%] in the obeticholic acid 10 mg group, and 336 [51%] in the obeticholic acid 25 mg group); incidence was generally mild to moderate in severity. The overall safety profile was similar to that in previous studies, and incidence of serious adverse events was similar across treatment groups (75 [11%] patients in the placebo group, 72 [11%] in the obeticholic acid 10 mg group, and 93 [14%] in the obeticholic acid 25 mg group). Interpretation Obeticholic acid 25 mg significantly improved fibrosis and key components of NASH disease activity among patients with NASH. The results from this planned interim analysis show clinically significant histological improvement that is reasonably likely to predict clinical benefit. This study is ongoing to assess clinical outcomes

Global age-sex-specific fertility, mortality, healthy life expectancy (HALE), and population estimates in 204 countries and territories, 1950-2019 : a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background: Accurate and up-to-date assessment of demographic metrics is crucial for understanding a wide range of social, economic, and public health issues that affect populations worldwide. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 produced updated and comprehensive demographic assessments of the key indicators of fertility, mortality, migration, and population for 204 countries and territories and selected subnational locations from 1950 to 2019. Methods: 8078 country-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 938 surveys, 349 censuses, and 238 other sources were identified and used to estimate age-specific fertility. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate age-specific fertility rates for 5-year age groups between ages 15 and 49 years. With extensions to age groups 10–14 and 50–54 years, the total fertility rate (TFR) was then aggregated using the estimated age-specific fertility between ages 10 and 54 years. 7417 sources were used for under-5 mortality estimation and 7355 for adult mortality. ST-GPR was used to synthesise data sources after correction for known biases. Adult mortality was measured as the probability of death between ages 15 and 60 years based on vital registration, sample registration, and sibling histories, and was also estimated using ST-GPR. HIV-free life tables were then estimated using estimates of under-5 and adult mortality rates using a relational model life table system created for GBD, which closely tracks observed age-specific mortality rates from complete vital registration when available. Independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated by an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys and antenatal clinic serosurveillance and other sources were incorporated into the estimates in countries with large epidemics. Annual and single-year age estimates of net migration and population for each country and territory were generated using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model that analysed estimated age-specific fertility and mortality rates along with 1250 censuses and 747 population registry years. We classified location-years into seven categories on the basis of the natural rate of increase in population (calculated by subtracting the crude death rate from the crude birth rate) and the net migration rate. We computed healthy life expectancy (HALE) using years lived with disability (YLDs) per capita, life tables, and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty was propagated throughout the demographic estimation process, including fertility, mortality, and population, with 1000 draw-level estimates produced for each metric. Findings: The global TFR decreased from 2·72 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 2·66–2·79) in 2000 to 2·31 (2·17–2·46) in 2019. Global annual livebirths increased from 134·5 million (131·5–137·8) in 2000 to a peak of 139·6 million (133·0–146·9) in 2016. Global livebirths then declined to 135·3 million (127·2–144·1) in 2019. Of the 204 countries and territories included in this study, in 2019, 102 had a TFR lower than 2·1, which is considered a good approximation of replacement-level fertility. All countries in sub-Saharan Africa had TFRs above replacement level in 2019 and accounted for 27·1% (95% UI 26·4–27·8) of global livebirths. Global life expectancy at birth increased from 67·2 years (95% UI 66·8–67·6) in 2000 to 73·5 years (72·8–74·3) in 2019. The total number of deaths increased from 50·7 million (49·5–51·9) in 2000 to 56·5 million (53·7–59·2) in 2019. Under-5 deaths declined from 9·6 million (9·1–10·3) in 2000 to 5·0 million (4·3–6·0) in 2019. Global population increased by 25·7%, from 6·2 billion (6·0–6·3) in 2000 to 7·7 billion (7·5–8·0) in 2019. In 2019, 34 countries had negative natural rates of increase; in 17 of these, the population declined because immigration was not sufficient to counteract the negative rate of decline. Globally, HALE increased from 58·6 years (56·1–60·8) in 2000 to 63·5 years (60·8–66·1) in 2019. HALE increased in 202 of 204 countries and territories between 2000 and 2019

Global burden of 369 diseases and injuries in 204 countries and territories, 1990–2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background: In an era of shifting global agendas and expanded emphasis on non-communicable diseases and injuries along with communicable diseases, sound evidence on trends by cause at the national level is essential. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) provides a systematic scientific assessment of published, publicly available, and contributed data on incidence, prevalence, and mortality for a mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive list of diseases and injuries. Methods: GBD estimates incidence, prevalence, mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) due to 369 diseases and injuries, for two sexes, and for 204 countries and territories. Input data were extracted from censuses, household surveys, civil registration and vital statistics, disease registries, health service use, air pollution monitors, satellite imaging, disease notifications, and other sources. Cause-specific death rates and cause fractions were calculated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model and spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression. Cause-specific deaths were adjusted to match the total all-cause deaths calculated as part of the GBD population, fertility, and mortality estimates. Deaths were multiplied by standard life expectancy at each age to calculate YLLs. A Bayesian meta-regression modelling tool, DisMod-MR 2.1, was used to ensure consistency between incidence, prevalence, remission, excess mortality, and cause-specific mortality for most causes. Prevalence estimates were multiplied by disability weights for mutually exclusive sequelae of diseases and injuries to calculate YLDs. We considered results in the context of the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite indicator of income per capita, years of schooling, and fertility rate in females younger than 25 years. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered 1000 draw values of the posterior distribution. Findings: Global health has steadily improved over the past 30 years as measured by age-standardised DALY rates. After taking into account population growth and ageing, the absolute number of DALYs has remained stable. Since 2010, the pace of decline in global age-standardised DALY rates has accelerated in age groups younger than 50 years compared with the 1990–2010 time period, with the greatest annualised rate of decline occurring in the 0–9-year age group. Six infectious diseases were among the top ten causes of DALYs in children younger than 10 years in 2019: lower respiratory infections (ranked second), diarrhoeal diseases (third), malaria (fifth), meningitis (sixth), whooping cough (ninth), and sexually transmitted infections (which, in this age group, is fully accounted for by congenital syphilis; ranked tenth). In adolescents aged 10–24 years, three injury causes were among the top causes of DALYs: road injuries (ranked first), self-harm (third), and interpersonal violence (fifth). Five of the causes that were in the top ten for ages 10–24 years were also in the top ten in the 25–49-year age group: road injuries (ranked first), HIV/AIDS (second), low back pain (fourth), headache disorders (fifth), and depressive disorders (sixth). In 2019, ischaemic heart disease and stroke were the top-ranked causes of DALYs in both the 50–74-year and 75-years-and-older age groups. Since 1990, there has been a marked shift towards a greater proportion of burden due to YLDs from non-communicable diseases and injuries. In 2019, there were 11 countries where non-communicable disease and injury YLDs constituted more than half of all disease burden. Decreases in age-standardised DALY rates have accelerated over the past decade in countries at the lower end of the SDI range, while improvements have started to stagnate or even reverse in countries with higher SDI. Interpretation: As disability becomes an increasingly large component of disease burden and a larger component of health expenditure, greater research and developm nt investment is needed to identify new, more effective intervention strategies. With a rapidly ageing global population, the demands on health services to deal with disabling outcomes, which increase with age, will require policy makers to anticipate these changes. The mix of universal and more geographically specific influences on health reinforces the need for regular reporting on population health in detail and by underlying cause to help decision makers to identify success stories of disease control to emulate, as well as opportunities to improve. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2020 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 licens