Prognostic model to predict postoperative acute kidney injury in patients undergoing major gastrointestinal surgery based on a national prospective observational cohort study.

Background: Acute illness, existing co-morbidities and surgical stress response can all contribute to postoperative acute kidney injury (AKI) in patients undergoing major gastrointestinal surgery. The aim of this study was prospectively to develop a pragmatic prognostic model to stratify patients according to risk of developing AKI after major gastrointestinal surgery. Methods: This prospective multicentre cohort study included consecutive adults undergoing elective or emergency gastrointestinal resection, liver resection or stoma reversal in 2-week blocks over a continuous 3-month period. The primary outcome was the rate of AKI within 7 days of surgery. Bootstrap stability was used to select clinically plausible risk factors into the model. Internal model validation was carried out by bootstrap validation. Results: A total of 4544 patients were included across 173 centres in the UK and Ireland. The overall rate of AKI was 14·2 per cent (646 of 4544) and the 30-day mortality rate was 1·8 per cent (84 of 4544). Stage 1 AKI was significantly associated with 30-day mortality (unadjusted odds ratio 7·61, 95 per cent c.i. 4·49 to 12·90; P < 0·001), with increasing odds of death with each AKI stage. Six variables were selected for inclusion in the prognostic model: age, sex, ASA grade, preoperative estimated glomerular filtration rate, planned open surgery and preoperative use of either an angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor or an angiotensin receptor blocker. Internal validation demonstrated good model discrimination (c-statistic 0·65). Discussion: Following major gastrointestinal surgery, AKI occurred in one in seven patients. This preoperative prognostic model identified patients at high risk of postoperative AKI. Validation in an independent data set is required to ensure generalizability

The evolving SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in Africa: Insights from rapidly expanding genomic surveillance

INTRODUCTION Investment in Africa over the past year with regard to severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) sequencing has led to a massive increase in the number of sequences, which, to date, exceeds 100,000 sequences generated to track the pandemic on the continent. These sequences have profoundly affected how public health officials in Africa have navigated the COVID-19 pandemic. RATIONALE We demonstrate how the first 100,000 SARS-CoV-2 sequences from Africa have helped monitor the epidemic on the continent, how genomic surveillance expanded over the course of the pandemic, and how we adapted our sequencing methods to deal with an evolving virus. Finally, we also examine how viral lineages have spread across the continent in a phylogeographic framework to gain insights into the underlying temporal and spatial transmission dynamics for several variants of concern (VOCs). RESULTS Our results indicate that the number of countries in Africa that can sequence the virus within their own borders is growing and that this is coupled with a shorter turnaround time from the time of sampling to sequence submission. Ongoing evolution necessitated the continual updating of primer sets, and, as a result, eight primer sets were designed in tandem with viral evolution and used to ensure effective sequencing of the virus. The pandemic unfolded through multiple waves of infection that were each driven by distinct genetic lineages, with B.1-like ancestral strains associated with the first pandemic wave of infections in 2020. Successive waves on the continent were fueled by different VOCs, with Alpha and Beta cocirculating in distinct spatial patterns during the second wave and Delta and Omicron affecting the whole continent during the third and fourth waves, respectively. Phylogeographic reconstruction points toward distinct differences in viral importation and exportation patterns associated with the Alpha, Beta, Delta, and Omicron variants and subvariants, when considering both Africa versus the rest of the world and viral dissemination within the continent. Our epidemiological and phylogenetic inferences therefore underscore the heterogeneous nature of the pandemic on the continent and highlight key insights and challenges, for instance, recognizing the limitations of low testing proportions. We also highlight the early warning capacity that genomic surveillance in Africa has had for the rest of the world with the detection of new lineages and variants, the most recent being the characterization of various Omicron subvariants. CONCLUSION Sustained investment for diagnostics and genomic surveillance in Africa is needed as the virus continues to evolve. This is important not only to help combat SARS-CoV-2 on the continent but also because it can be used as a platform to help address the many emerging and reemerging infectious disease threats in Africa. In particular, capacity building for local sequencing within countries or within the continent should be prioritized because this is generally associated with shorter turnaround times, providing the most benefit to local public health authorities tasked with pandemic response and mitigation and allowing for the fastest reaction to localized outbreaks. These investments are crucial for pandemic preparedness and response and will serve the health of the continent well into the 21st century

M. Fabii Quintiliani Institutiones oratoriae liber I /

Text in Latin ; notes, et al. in English.Includes index.Bibliography : p. [191]-195.Mode of access: Internet

High Risk of Anal and Rectal Cancer in Patients With Anal and/or Perianal Crohn’s Disease

International audienceBackground & AimsLittle is known about the magnitude of the risk of anal and rectal cancer in patients with anal and/or perineal Crohn’s disease. We aimed to assess the risk of anal and rectal cancer in patients with Crohn’s perianal disease followed up in the Cancers Et Surrisque Associé aux Maladies Inflammatoires Intestinales En France (CESAME) cohort.MethodsWe collected data from 19,486 patients with inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) enrolled in the observational CESAME study in France, from May 2004 through June 2005; 14.9% of participants had past or current anal and/or perianal Crohn’s disease. Subjects were followed up for a median time of 35 months (interquartile range, 29–40 mo). To identify risk factors for anal cancer in the total CESAME population, we performed a case-control study in which participants were matched for age and sex.ResultsAmong the total IBD population, 8 patients developed anal cancer and 14 patients developed rectal cancer. In the subgroup of 2911 patients with past or current anal and/or perianal Crohn’s lesions at cohort entry, 2 developed anal squamous-cell carcinoma, 3 developed perianal fistula–related adenocarcinoma, and 6 developed rectal cancer. The corresponding incidence rates were 0.26 per 1000 patient-years for anal squamous-cell carcinoma, 0.38 per 1000 patient-years for perianal fistula–related adenocarcinoma, and 0.77 per 1000 patient-years for rectal cancer. Among the 16,575 patients with ulcerative colitis or Crohn’s disease without anal or perianal lesions, the incidence rate of anal cancer was 0.08 per 1000 patient-years and of rectal cancer was 0.21 per 1000 patient-years. Among factors tested by univariate conditional regression (IBD subtype, disease duration, exposure to immune-suppressive therapy, presence of past or current anal and/or perianal lesions), the presence of past or current anal and/or perianal lesions at cohort entry was the only factor significantly associated with development of anal cancer (odds ratio, 11.2; 95% CI, 1.18-551.51; P = .03).ConclusionsIn an analysis of data from the CESAME cohort in France, patients with anal and/or perianal Crohn’s disease have a high risk of anal cancer, including perianal fistula–related cancer, and a high risk of rectal cancer