The impact of predation by marine mammals on Patagonian toothfish longline fisheries

Predatory interaction of marine mammals with longline fisheries is observed globally, leading to partial or complete loss of the catch and in some parts of the world to considerable financial loss. Depredation can also create additional unrecorded fishing mortality of a stock and has the potential to introduce bias to stock assessments. Here we aim to characterise depredation in the Patagonian toothfish (Dissostichus eleginoides) fishery around South Georgia focusing on the spatio-temporal component of these interactions. Antarctic fur seals (Arctocephalus gazella), sperm whales (Physeter macrocephalus), and orcas (Orcinus orca) frequently feed on fish hooked on longlines around South Georgia. A third of longlines encounter sperm whales, but loss of catch due to sperm whales is insignificant when compared to that due to orcas, which interact with only 5% of longlines but can take more than half of the catch in some cases. Orca depredation around South Georgia is spatially limited and focused in areas of putative migration routes, and the impact is compounded as a result of the fishery also concentrating in those areas at those times. Understanding the seasonal behaviour of orcas and the spatial and temporal distribution of “depredation hot spots” can reduce marine mammal interactions, will improve assessment and management of the stock and contribute to increased operational efficiency of the fishery. Such information is valuable in the effort to resolve the human-mammal conflict for resources

High Effective Coverage of Vector Control Interventions in Children After Achieving Low Malaria Transmission in Zanzibar, Tanzania.

\ud \ud Formerly a high malaria transmission area, Zanzibar is now targeting malaria elimination. A major challenge is to avoid resurgence of malaria, the success of which includes maintaining high effective coverage of vector control interventions such as bed nets and indoor residual spraying (IRS). In this study, caretakers' continued use of preventive measures for their children is evaluated, following a sharp reduction in malaria transmission. A cross-sectional community-based survey was conducted in June 2009 in North A and Micheweni districts in Zanzibar. Households were randomly selected using two-stage cluster sampling. Interviews were conducted with 560 caretakers of under-five-year old children, who were asked about perceptions on the malaria situation, vector control, household assets, and intention for continued use of vector control as malaria burden further decreases. Effective coverage of vector control interventions for under-five children remains high, although most caretakers (65%; 363/560) did not perceive malaria as presently being a major health issue. Seventy percent (447/643) of the under-five children slept under a long-lasting insecticidal net (LLIN) and 94% (607/643) were living in houses targeted with IRS. In total, 98% (628/643) of the children were covered by at least one of the vector control interventions. Seasonal bed-net use for children was reported by 25% (125/508) of caretakers of children who used bed nets. A high proportion of caretakers (95%; 500/524) stated that they intended to continue using preventive measures for their under-five children as malaria burden further reduces. Malaria risk perceptions and different perceptions of vector control were not found to be significantly associated with LLIN effective coverage While the majority of caretakers felt that malaria had been reduced in Zanzibar, effective coverage of vector control interventions remained high. Caretakers appreciated the interventions and recognized the value of sustaining their use. Thus, sustaining high effective coverage of vector control interventions, which is crucial for reaching malaria elimination in Zanzibar, can be achieved by maintaining effective delivery of these interventions

Reference Based Sensitivity Analysis for Time-to-Event Data

The analysis of time-to-event data typically makes the censoring at random assumption, i.e. that —conditional on covariates in the model—the distribution of event times is the same, whether they are observed or unobserved. When patients who remain in follow-up are compliant with the trial protocol, then analysis under this assumption can be considered to address a de-jure (“while on treatment strategy”) type of estimand. In such cases, we may well wish to explore the robustness of our inference to more pragmatic, de-facto, (“treatment policy strategy”), assumptions about the behaviour of patients postcensoring. This is particularly the case when censoring occurs if patients change, or revert, to the usual (i.e. reference) standard of care. Recent work has shown how such questions can be addressed for trials with continuous outcome data and longitudinal follow-up, using reference based multiple imputation. Such an approach has two advantages: (i) it avoids the user specifying numerous parameters describing the distribution of patient’s post-withdrawal data, and (ii) it is, to a good approximation, information anchored, so that the proportion of information lost due to missing data under the primary analysis is held constant across the sensitivity analyses. We develop similar approaches in the survival context, proposing a class of reference based assumptions appropriate for time-to-event data. We explore the extent to which sensitivity analyses using the multiple imputation estimator (with Rubin’s variance formula) is information anchored, demonstrating this using theoretical results and simulation studies. The methods are illustrated using data from a randomized clinical trial comparing medical therapy with angioplasty in patients with angina. Causal inference methods are established as the gold standard for analysing observational (“big”) data. In a final step, we show that reference based methods can also be applied in this context by using sensitivity analysis in an investigation of the risk of opportunistic infections in a cohort of HIV positive individuals

Integration of temporal environmental variation by the marine plankton community

Theory and observations suggest that low frequency variation in marine plankton populations, or red noise, may arise through cumulative integration of white noise atmospheric forcing by the ocean and its amplification within food webs. Here, we revisit evidence for the integration of stochastic atmospheric variations by comparing the power spectra of time series of atmospheric and oceanographic conditions to the population dynamics of 150 plankton taxa at Station L4 in the Western English Channel. The power spectra of oceanographic conditions (sea surface temperature, surface nitrate) are redder than those of atmospheric forcing (surface wind stress, net heat fluxes) at Station L4. However, plankton populations have power spectral slopes across trophic levels and body sizes that are redder than atmospheric forcing but whiter than oceanographic conditions. While zooplankton have redder spectral slopes than phytoplankton, there is no significant relationship between power spectral slope and body size or generation length. Using a predator−prey model, we show that the whitening of plankton time series relative to oceanographic conditions arises from noisy plankton bloom dynamics in this strongly seasonal system. The model indicates that, for typical predator−prey interactions, where the predator is on average 10 times longer than the prey, grazing leads to a modest reddening of phytoplankton variability by their larger and longer lived zooplankton consumers. Our findings suggest that, beyond extrinsic forcing by the environment, predator–prey interactions play a role in influencing the power spectra of time series of plankton populations

Search for direct pair production of the top squark in all-hadronic final states in proton-proton collisions at s√=8 TeV with the ATLAS detector

The results of a search for direct pair production of the scalar partner to the top quark using an integrated luminosity of 20.1fb−1 of proton–proton collision data at √s = 8 TeV recorded with the ATLAS detector at the LHC are reported. The top squark is assumed to decay via t˜→tχ˜01 or t˜→ bχ˜±1 →bW(∗)χ˜01 , where χ˜01 (χ˜±1 ) denotes the lightest neutralino (chargino) in supersymmetric models. The search targets a fully-hadronic final state in events with four or more jets and large missing transverse momentum. No significant excess over the Standard Model background prediction is observed, and exclusion limits are reported in terms of the top squark and neutralino masses and as a function of the branching fraction of t˜ → tχ˜01 . For a branching fraction of 100%, top squark masses in the range 270–645 GeV are excluded for χ˜01 masses below 30 GeV. For a branching fraction of 50% to either t˜ → tχ˜01 or t˜ → bχ˜±1 , and assuming the χ˜±1 mass to be twice the χ˜01 mass, top squark masses in the range 250–550 GeV are excluded for χ˜01 masses below 60 GeV

Laser clad and HVOF sprayed Stellite 6 coating in chlorine rich environment with KCI at 700 °C

Laser clads and HVOF coatings from a stellite 6 alloy (Co–Cr–W–C alloy) on 304 stainless steel substrates were exposed both bare and with KCl deposits in 500 ppm HCl with 5% O2 for 250 h at 700 C. SEM/EDX and PXRD analyses with Rietveld refinement were used for assessment of the attack and for analysis of the scales. The bare samples suffered from scale spallation and the scale was mostly composed of Cr2O3, CoCr2O4 and CoO, although due to dilution haematite (Fe2O3) was detected in the scale formed on the laser clad sample. A small amount of hydrated HCl was detected in bare samples. While the corrosion of the bare surfaces was limited to comparatively shallow depths and manifested by g and M7C3 carbide formation, the presence of KCl on the surface led to severe Cr depletion from the HVOF coating (to 1 wt%). Both inward and outward diffusion of elements occurred in the HVOF coating resulting in Kirdendall voids at the coating–steel interface. The laser clad sample performed significantly better in conditions of the KCl deposit-induced corrosion. In addition to the oxides, CoCl2 was detected in the HVOF sample and K3CrO4 was detected in the laser clad sample. Thermodynamic calculations and kinetic simulations were carried out to interpret the oxidation and diffusion behaviours of coatings

Observation of associated near-side and away-side long-range correlations in √sNN=5.02 TeV proton-lead collisions with the ATLAS detector

Two-particle correlations in relative azimuthal angle (Δϕ) and pseudorapidity (Δη) are measured in √sNN=5.02  TeV p+Pb collisions using the ATLAS detector at the LHC. The measurements are performed using approximately 1  μb-1 of data as a function of transverse momentum (pT) and the transverse energy (ΣETPb) summed over 3.1<η<4.9 in the direction of the Pb beam. The correlation function, constructed from charged particles, exhibits a long-range (2<|Δη|<5) “near-side” (Δϕ∼0) correlation that grows rapidly with increasing ΣETPb. A long-range “away-side” (Δϕ∼π) correlation, obtained by subtracting the expected contributions from recoiling dijets and other sources estimated using events with small ΣETPb, is found to match the near-side correlation in magnitude, shape (in Δη and Δϕ) and ΣETPb dependence. The resultant Δϕ correlation is approximately symmetric about π/2, and is consistent with a dominant cos⁡2Δϕ modulation for all ΣETPb ranges and particle pT

Measurement of the charge asymmetry in dileptonic Decays of top quark pairs in pp collisions at √ s = 7 TeV using the ATLAS detector

A measurement of the top-antitop (tt) charge asymmetry is presented using data corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 4.6 fb −1 of LHC pp collisions at a centre- of-mass energy of 7 TeV collected by the ATLAS detector. Events with two charged leptons, at least two jets and large missing transverse momentum are selected. Two observables are studied: A tt/C, based on the reconstructed tt final state. The asymmetries are measured to be A ll/C = 0.024 +/- 0.015 (stat.) +/- 0.009 (syst.) Att/C = 0.021 +/- 0.025 (stat.) +/- 0.017 (syst.) The measured values are in agreement with the Standard Model predictions

Using Verbal Autopsy to Measure Causes of Death: the Comparative Performance of Existing Methods.

Monitoring progress with disease and injury reduction in many populations will require widespread use of verbal autopsy (VA). Multiple methods have been developed for assigning cause of death from a VA but their application is restricted by uncertainty about their reliability. We investigated the validity of five automated VA methods for assigning cause of death: InterVA-4, Random Forest (RF), Simplified Symptom Pattern (SSP), Tariff method (Tariff), and King-Lu (KL), in addition to physician review of VA forms (PCVA), based on 12,535 cases from diverse populations for which the true cause of death had been reliably established. For adults, children, neonates and stillbirths, performance was assessed separately for individuals using sensitivity, specificity, Kappa, and chance-corrected concordance (CCC) and for populations using cause specific mortality fraction (CSMF) accuracy, with and without additional diagnostic information from prior contact with health services. A total of 500 train-test splits were used to ensure that results are robust to variation in the underlying cause of death distribution. Three automated diagnostic methods, Tariff, SSP, and RF, but not InterVA-4, performed better than physician review in all age groups, study sites, and for the majority of causes of death studied. For adults, CSMF accuracy ranged from 0.764 to 0.770, compared with 0.680 for PCVA and 0.625 for InterVA; CCC varied from 49.2% to 54.1%, compared with 42.2% for PCVA, and 23.8% for InterVA. For children, CSMF accuracy was 0.783 for Tariff, 0.678 for PCVA, and 0.520 for InterVA; CCC was 52.5% for Tariff, 44.5% for PCVA, and 30.3% for InterVA. For neonates, CSMF accuracy was 0.817 for Tariff, 0.719 for PCVA, and 0.629 for InterVA; CCC varied from 47.3% to 50.3% for the three automated methods, 29.3% for PCVA, and 19.4% for InterVA. The method with the highest sensitivity for a specific cause varied by cause. Physician review of verbal autopsy questionnaires is less accurate than automated methods in determining both individual and population causes of death. Overall, Tariff performs as well or better than other methods and should be widely applied in routine mortality surveillance systems with poor cause of death certification practices

Search for new phenomena in final states with an energetic jet and large missing transverse momentum in pp collisions at √ s = 8 TeV with the ATLAS detector

Results of a search for new phenomena in final states with an energetic jet and large missing transverse momentum are reported. The search uses 20.3 fb−1 of √ s = 8 TeV data collected in 2012 with the ATLAS detector at the LHC. Events are required to have at least one jet with pT > 120 GeV and no leptons. Nine signal regions are considered with increasing missing transverse momentum requirements between Emiss T > 150 GeV and Emiss T > 700 GeV. Good agreement is observed between the number of events in data and Standard Model expectations. The results are translated into exclusion limits on models with either large extra spatial dimensions, pair production of weakly interacting dark matter candidates, or production of very light gravitinos in a gauge-mediated supersymmetric model. In addition, limits on the production of an invisibly decaying Higgs-like boson leading to similar topologies in the final state are presente