The rogue nature of hiatuses in a global warming climate

The nature of rogue events is their unlikelihood and the recent unpredicted decade-long slowdown in surface warming, the so-called hiatus, may be such an event. However, given decadal variability in climate, global surface temperatures were never expected to increase monotonically with increasing radiative forcing. Here surface air temperature from 20 climate models is analyzed to estimate the historical and future likelihood of hiatuses and “surges” (faster than expected warming), showing that the global hiatus of the early 21st century was extremely unlikely. A novel analysis of future climate scenarios suggests that hiatuses will almost vanish and surges will strongly intensify by 2100 under a “business as usual” scenario. For “CO2 stabilisation” scenarios, hiatus, and surge characteristics revert to typical 1940s values. These results suggest to study the hiatus of the early 21st century and future reoccurrences as rogue events, at the limit of the variability of current climate modelling capability

Incident radiation and the allocation of nitrogen within Arctic plant canopies : implications for predicting gross primary productivity

Author Posting. © The Author(s), 2012. This is the author's version of the work. It is posted here by permission of John Wiley & Sons for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Global Change Biology 18 (2012): 2838–2852, doi:10.1111/j.1365-2486.2012.02754.x.Arctic vegetation is characterized by high spatial variability in plant functional type (PFT) composition and gross primary productivity (P). Despite this variability, the two main drivers of P in sub-Arctic tundra are leaf area index (LT) and total foliar nitrogen (NT). LT and NT have been shown to be tightly coupled across PFTs in sub-Arctic tundra vegetation, which simplifies up-scaling by allowing quantification of the main drivers of P from remotely sensed LT. Our objective was to test the LT–NT relationship across multiple Arctic latitudes and to assess LT as a predictor of P for the pan-Arctic. Including PFT-specific parameters in models of LT–NT coupling provided only incremental improvements in model fit, but significant improvements were gained from including site-specific parameters. The degree of curvature in the LT–NT relationship, controlled by a fitted canopy nitrogen extinction co-efficient, was negatively related to average levels of diffuse radiation at a site. This is consistent with theoretical predictions of more uniform vertical canopy N distributions under diffuse light conditions. Higher latitude sites had higher average leaf N content by mass (NM), and we show for the first time that LT–NT coupling is achieved across latitudes via canopy-scale trade-offs between NM and leaf mass per unit leaf area (LM). Site-specific parameters provided small but significant improvements in models of P based on LT and moss cover. Our results suggest that differences in LT–NT coupling between sites could be used to improve pan-Arctic models of P and we provide unique evidence that prevailing radiation conditions can significantly affect N allocation over regional scales.This work was supported by grants from the US National Science Foundation to the Marine Biological Laboratory including grants # OPP-0352897, DEB-0423385, and DEB-0444592

Rapid dynamic activation of a marine-based Arctic ice cap

We use satellite observations to document rapid acceleration and ice loss from a formerly slow-flowing, marine-based sector of Austfonna, the largest ice cap in the Eurasian Arctic. During the past two decades, the sector ice discharge has increased 45-fold, the velocity regime has switched from predominantly slow (~ 101 m/yr) to fast (~ 103 m/yr) flow, and rates of ice thinning have exceeded 25 m/yr. At the time of widespread dynamic activation, parts of the terminus may have been near floatation. Subsequently, the imbalance has propagated 50 km inland to within 8 km of the ice cap summit. Our observations demonstrate the ability of slow-flowing ice to mobilize and quickly transmit the dynamic imbalance inland; a process that we show has initiated rapid ice loss to the ocean and redistribution of ice mass to locations more susceptible to melt, yet which remains poorly understood.This work was supported by the UK Natural Environment Research Council.This article was originally published in Geophysical Research Letters (M McMillan, A Shepherd, N Gourmelen, A Dehecq, A Leeson, A Ridout, T Flament, A Hogg, L Gilbert, T Benham, M van den Broeke, JA Dowdeswell, X Fettweis, B Noël, T Strozzi, Geophysical Research Letters 2014, 41, 8902–8909)

Latitudinal gradient of spruce forest understory and tundra phenology in Alaska as observed from satellite and ground-based data

The latitudinal gradient of the start of the growing season (SOS) and the end of the growing season (EOS) were quantified in Alaska (61°N to 71°N) using satellite-based and ground-based datasets. The Alaskan evergreen needleleaf forests are sparse and the understory vegetation has a substantial impact on the satellite signal. We evaluated SOS and EOS of understory and tundra vegetation using time-lapse camera images. From the comparison of three SOS algorithms for determining SOS from two satellite datasets (SPOT-VEGETATION and Terra-MODIS), we found that the satellite-based SOS timing was consistent with the leaf emergence of the forest understory and tundra vegetation. The ensemble average of SOS over all satellite algorithms can be used as a measure of spring leaf emergence for understory and tundra vegetation. In contrast, the relationship between the ground-based and satellite-based EOSs was not as strong as that of SOS both for boreal forest and tundra sites because of the large biases between those two EOSs (19 to 26 days). The satellite-based EOS was more relevant to snowfall events than the senescence of understory or tundra. The plant canopy radiative transfer simulation suggested that 84–86% of the NDVI seasonal amplitude could be a reasonable threshold for the EOS determination. The latitudinal gradients of SOS and EOS evaluated by the satellite and ground data were consistent and the satellite-derived SOS and EOS were 3.5 to 5.7 days degree− 1 and − 2.3 to − 2.7 days degree− 1, which corresponded to the spring (May) temperature sensitivity of − 2.5 to − 3.9 days °C− 1 in SOS and the autumn (August and September) temperature sensitivity of 3.0 to 4.6 days °C− 1 in EOS. This demonstrates the possible impact of phenology in spruce forest understory and tundra ecosystems in response to climate change in the warming Artic and sub-Arctic regions

Factors Driving Mercury Variability in the Arctic Atmosphere and Ocean over the Past 30 Years

[1] Long-term observations at Arctic sites (Alert and Zeppelin) show large interannual variability (IAV) in atmospheric mercury (Hg), implying a strong sensitivity of Hg to environmental factors and potentially to climate change. We use the GEOS-Chem global biogeochemical Hg model to interpret these observations and identify the principal drivers of spring and summer IAV in the Arctic atmosphere and surface ocean from 1979–2008. The model has moderate skill in simulating the observed atmospheric IAV at the two sites (r ~ 0.4) and successfully reproduces a long-term shift at Alert in the timing of the spring minimum from May to April (r = 0.7). Principal component analysis indicates that much of the IAV in the model can be explained by a single climate mode with high temperatures, low sea ice fraction, low cloudiness, and shallow boundary layer. This mode drives decreased bromine-driven deposition in spring and increased ocean evasion in summer. In the Arctic surface ocean, we find that the IAV for modeled total Hg is dominated by the meltwater flux of Hg previously deposited to sea ice, which is largest in years with high solar radiation (clear skies) and cold spring air temperature. Climate change in the Arctic is projected to result in increased cloudiness and strong warming in spring, which may thus lead to decreased Hg inputs to the Arctic Ocean. The effect of climate change on Hg discharges from Arctic rivers remains a major source of uncertainty.Earth and Planetary SciencesEngineering and Applied Science

Arctic Amplification metrics

One of the defining features of both recent and historical cases of global climate change is Arctic Amplification (AA). This is the more rapid change in the surface air temperature (SAT) in the Arctic compared to some wider reference region, such as the Northern Hemisphere (NH) mean. Many different metrics have been developed to quantify the degree of AA based on SAT anomalies, trends and variability. The use of different metrics, as well as the choice of dataset to use can affect conclusions about the magnitude and temporal variability of AA. Here we review the established metrics of AA to see how well they agree upon the temporal signature of AA, such as the multi-decadal variability, and 16 assess the consistency in these metrics across different commonly-used datasets which cover both the early and late 20th century warming in the Arctic. We find the NOAA 20th Century Reanalysis most closely matches the observations when using metrics based upon SAT trends (A2), variability (A3) and regression (A4) of the SAT anomalies, and the ERA 20th 19 Century Reanalysis is closest to the observations in the SAT anomalies (A1) and variability of SAT anomalies (A3). However, there are large seasonal differences in the consistency between datasets. Moreover, the largest differences between the century-long reanalysis products and observations are during the early warming period, likely due to the sparseness of the observations in the Arctic at that time. In the modern warming period, the high density of observations strongly constrains all the reanalysis products, whether they include satellite observations or only surface observations. Thus, all the reanalysis and observation products produce very similar magnitudes and temporal variability in the degree of AA during the recent warming period

The role of declining Arctic sea ice in recent decreasing terrestrial Arctic snow depths

The dramatic decline in Arctic sea ice cover is anticipated to influence atmospheric temperatures and circulation patterns. These changes will affect the terrestrial climate beyond the boundary of the Arctic, consequently modulating terrestrial snow cover. Therefore, an improved understanding of the relationship between Arctic sea ice and snow depth over the terrestrial Arctic is warranted. We examined responses of snow depth to the declining Arctic sea ice extent in September, during the period of 1979-2006. The major reason for a focus on snow depth, rather than snow cover, is because its variability has a climatic memory that impacts hydrothermal processes during the following summer season. Analyses of combined data sets of satellite measurements of sea ice extent and snow depth, simulated by a land surface model (CHANGE), suggested that an anomalously larger snow depth over northeastern Siberia during autumn and winter was significantly correlated to the declining September Arctic sea ice extent, which has resulted in cooling temperatures, along with an increase in precipitation. Meanwhile, the reduction of Arctic sea ice has amplified warming temperatures in North America, which has readily offset the input of precipitation to snow cover, consequently further decreasing snow depth. However, a part of the Canadian Arctic recorded an increase in snow depth driven locally by the diminishing September Arctic sea ice extent. Decreasing snow depth at the hemispheric scale, outside the northernmost regions (i.e., northeastern Siberia and Canadian Arctic), indicated that Arctic amplification related to the diminishing Arctic sea ice has already impacted the terrestrial Arctic snow depth. The strong reduction in Arctic sea ice anticipated in the future also suggests a potential long-range impact on Arctic snow cover. Moreover, the snow depth during the early snow season tends to contribute to the warming of soil temperatures in the following summer, at least in the northernmost regions

Surface Energy Budgets of Arctic Tundra During Growing Season

This study analyzed summer observations of diurnal and seasonal surface energy budgets across several monitoring sites within the Arctic tundra underlain by permafrost. In these areas, latent and sensible heat fluxes have comparable magnitudes, and ground heat flux enters the subsurface during short summer intervals of the growing period, leading to seasonal thaw. The maximum entropy production (MEP) model was tested as an input and parameter parsimonious model of surface heat fluxes for the simulation of energy budgets of these permafrost‐underlain environments. Using net radiation, surface temperature, and a single parameter characterizing the thermal inertia of the heat exchanging surface, the MEP model estimates latent, sensible, and ground heat fluxes that agree closely with observations at five sites for which detailed flux data are available. The MEP potential evapotranspiration model reproduces estimates of the Penman‐Monteith potential evapotranspiration model that requires at least five input meteorological variables (net radiation, ground heat flux, air temperature, air humidity, and wind speed) and empirical parameters of surface resistance. The potential and challenges of MEP model application in sparsely monitored areas of the Arctic are discussed, highlighting the need for accurate measurements and constraints of ground heat flux.Plain Language SummaryGrowing season latent and sensible heat fluxes are nearly equal over the Arctic permafrost tundra regions. Persistent ground heat flux into the subsurface layer leads to seasonal thaw of the top permafrost layer. The maximum energy production model accurately estimates the latent, sensible, and ground heat flux of the surface energy budget of the Arctic permafrost regions.Key PointThe MEP model is parsimonious and well suited to modeling surface energy budget in data‐sparse permafrost environmentsPeer Reviewedhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/150560/1/jgrd55584.pdfhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/150560/2/jgrd55584_am.pd

Increasing frequency and duration of Arctic winter warming events

Near-surface air temperatures close to 0°C were observed in situ over sea ice in the central Arctic during the last three winter seasons. Here we use in situ winter (December–March) temperature observations, such as those from Soviet North Pole drifting stations and ocean buoys, to determine how common Arctic winter warming events are. Observations of winter warming events exist over most of the Arctic Basin. Temperatures exceeding -5°C were observed during >30% of winters from 1954 to 2010 by North Pole drifting stations or ocean buoys. Using the ERA-Interim record (1979–2016), we show that the North Pole (NP) region typically experiences 10 warming events (T2m > 10°C) per winter, compared with only five in the Pacific Central Arctic (PCA). There is a positive trend in the overall duration of winter warming events for both the NP region (4.25 days/decade) and PCA (1.16 days/decade), due to an increased number of events of longer duration