Improved SST-precipitation intraseasonal relationships in the ECMWF coupled climate reanalysis

The European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) has produced the ocean-atmosphere coupled reanalysis for the 20th century CERA-20C, following on from the similar, but atmosphere-only, reanalysis ERA-20C. Here we demonstrate the capability of CERA-20C in producing more physically consistent ocean and atmosphere boundary conditions, by focusing on sea surface temperature (SST)-precipitation intra-seasonal relationships. CERA-20C reproduces well the observed SST-precipitation correlations, while these relationships are poorly represented in ERA-20C, with the greatest discrepancies in the early 1900s. The improved relationships in CERA-20C are due to intra-seasonal improvements in SST that are not present in the external HadISST2 product. In CERA-20C, SST-precipitation relationships are slightly weaker in the 1900s than in the 2000s, mainly due to differences in the assimilated observation density. We also find that the coupled model initialized from CERA-20C in the 2000s realistically simulates these relationships, while relaxing SST towards HadISST2 tends to damp these relationships. CERA-20C has improved mean and variance in precipitation over ERA-20C, but these are mostly due to improvements in the atmospheric model and not due to coupled feedbacks

Statistical wave climate projections for coastal impact assessments

Global multimodel wave climate projections are obtained at 1.0° × 1.0° scale from 30 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) global circulation model (GCM) realizations. A semi-supervised weather-typing approach based on a characterization of the ocean wave generation areas and the historical wave information from the recent GOW2 database are used to train the statistical model. This framework is also applied to obtain high resolution projections of coastal wave climate and coastal impacts as port operability and coastal flooding. Regional projections are estimated using the collection of weather types at spacing of 1.0°. This assumption is feasible because the predictor is defined based on the wave generation area and the classification is guided by the local wave climate. The assessment of future changes in coastal impacts is based on direct downscaling of indicators defined by empirical formulations (total water level for coastal flooding and number of hours per year with overtopping for port operability). Global multimodel projections of the significant wave height and peak period are consistent with changes obtained in previous studies. Statistical confidence of expected changes is obtained due to the large number of GCMs to construct the ensemble. The proposed methodology is proved to be flexible to project wave climate at different spatial scales. Regional changes of additional variables as wave direction or other statistics can be estimated from the future empirical distribution with extreme values restricted to high percentiles (i.e., 95th, 99th percentiles). The statistical framework can also be applied to evaluate regional coastal impacts integrating changes in storminess and sea level rise.The authors acknowledge the support of the Spanish Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad (MINECO) and European Regional Development Fund (FEDER) under Grant BIA2015-70644-R (MINECO/FEDER, UE). The authors are grateful to Nicolás Ripoll for his help in the performing the statistical simulations. The DAC data is produced by CLS Space Oceanography Division and distributed by Aviso, with support from Cnes (http://www.aviso.altimetry.fr/). The CMIP5 sea level pressure data are available at http://cmip-pcmdi.llnl.gov/cmip5/data_portal.html. Mean sea level projections are available at ftp://ftp.icdc.zmaw.de/ar5_sea_level_rise

Role of internal variability in recent decadal to multidecadal tropical Pacific climate changes

While the Earth's surface has considerably warmed over the past two decades, the tropical Pacific has featured a cooling of sea surface temperatures in its eastern and central parts, which went along with an unprecedented strengthening of the equatorial trade winds, the surface component of the Pacific Walker Circulation (PWC). Previous studies show that this decadal trend in the trade winds is generally beyond the range of decadal trends simulated by climate models when forced by historical radiative forcing. There is still a debate on the origin of and the potential role that internal variability may have played in the recent decadal surface wind trend. Using a number of long control (unforced) integrations of global climate models and several observational data sets, we address the question as to whether the recent decadal to multidecadal trends are robustly classified as an unusual event or the persistent response to external forcing. The observed trends in the tropical Pacific surface climate are still within the range of the long-term internal variability spanned by the models but represent an extreme realization of this variability. Thus, the recent observed decadal trends in the tropical Pacific, though highly unusual, could be of natural origin. We note that the long-term trends in the selected PWC indices exhibit a large observational uncertainty, even hindering definitive statements about the sign of the trends

Vertical structure and physical processes of the Madden-Julian oscillation: synthesis and summary

The "Vertical structure and physical processes of the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO)" project comprises three experiments, designed to evaluate comprehensively the heating, moistening and momentum associated with tropical convection in general circulation models (GCMs). We consider here only those GCMs that performed all experiments. Some models display relatively higher or lower MJO fidelity in both initialized hindcasts and climate simulations, while others show considerable variations in fidelity between experiments. Fidelity in hindcasts and climate simulations are not meaningfully correlated. The analysis of each experiment led to the development of process-oriented diagnostics, some of which distinguished between GCMs with higher or lower fidelity in that experiment. We select the most discriminating diagnostics and apply them to data from all experiments, where possible, to determine if correlations with MJO fidelity hold across scales and GCM states. While normalized gross moist stability had a small but statistically significant correlation with MJO fidelity in climate simulations, we find no link with fidelity in medium-range hindcasts. Similarly, there is no association between timestep-to-timestep rainfall variability, identified from short hindcasts, and fidelity in medium-range hindcasts or climate simulations. Two metrics that relate precipitation to free-tropospheric moisture--the relative humidity for extreme daily precipitation, and variations in the height and amplitude of moistening with rain rate--successfully distinguish between higher- and lower-fidelity GCMs in hindcasts and climate simulations. To improve the MJO, developers should focus on relationships between convection and both total moisture and its rate of change. We conclude by offering recommendations for further experiments

A limited role for unforced internal variability in 20th century warming.

The early twentieth-century warming (EW; 1910–45) and the mid-twentieth-century cooling (MC; 1950–80) have been linked to both internal variability of the climate system and changes in external radiative forcing. The degree to which either of the two factors contributed to EW and MC, or both, is still debated. Using a two-box impulse response model, we demonstrate that multidecadal ocean variability was unlikely to be the driver of observed changes in global mean surface temperature (GMST) after AD 1850. Instead, virtually all (97%–98%) of the global low-frequency variability (.30 years) can be explained by external forcing. We find similarly high percentages of explained variance for interhemispheric and land–ocean temperature evolution. Three key aspects are identified that underpin the conclusion of this new study: inhomogeneous anthropogenic aerosol forcing (AER), biases in the instrumental sea surface temperature (SST) datasets, and inadequate representation of the response to varying forcing factors. Once the spatially heterogeneous nature of AER is accounted for, the MC period is reconcilable with external drivers. SST biases and imprecise forcing responses explain the putative disagreement between models and observations during the EW period. As a consequence, Atlantic multidecadal variability (AMV) is found to be primarily controlled by external forcing too. Future attribution studies should account for these important factors when discriminating between externally forced and internally generated influences on climate. We argue that AMV must not be used as a regressor and suggest a revised AMV index instead [the North Atlantic Variability Index (NAVI)]. Our associated best estimate for the transient climate response (TCR) is 1.57 K (60.70 at the 5%–95% confidence level)

Interannual variability of the Subpolar Mode Water properties over the Reykjanes Ridge during 1990–2006.

International audienceCombining hydrographic data from the OVIDE (Observatoire de la Variabilité Interannuelle à Decennale/Observatory of the Interannual to Decadal Variability) section (Greenland-Portugal) with Argo and historical CTD data over the period 1990–2006, we estimate the variability of the core properties of a variety of Subpolar Mode Water (SPMW) observed on the eastern flank of the Reykjanes Ridge. This SPMW acquires its core properties in the winter mixed layer along the eastern side of the Reykjanes Ridge. We find that the February sea surface temperature along the ridge is a proxy for its core temperature. The sources of this mode water are water masses advected by the mean cyclonic circulation in the Iceland Basin. A density compensated tendency for cooling and freshening of the SPMW core properties is observed in the early 1990s. It stops in 1996 and is followed by an increase in temperature and salinity (+1.41°C and +0.11 psu) and a decrease in density (−0.12 kg m−3) until at least 2003. During the entire period, the data do not show any significant modification in the depth of the mode water core while they suggest that the thickness of the layer shrank. The variability of the local air-sea freshwater and heat fluxes cannot explain the observed salinity and temperature variations. They are most likely related to the modifications of the properties of the SPMW sources due to the recently evidenced changes, driven by the North Atlantic Oscillation, in the relative contributions of subtropical waters and subpolar waters in the Iceland Basin

Origin, formation and variability of the Subpolar Mode Water located over the Reykjanes Ridge

The origin and formation of the Subpolar Mode Water (SPMW) located over the Reykjanes Ridge in the North-Atlantic Ocean and the variability of its properties over the period 1966–2004 are investigated through the use of a global eddy-permitting (1/4°) ocean/sea-ice model and a Lagrangian analysis tool. The SPMW is fed by subtropical and subpolar waters advected by the branches of the North-Atlantic Current. The SPMW acquires its properties when its source waters enter the winter mixed layer in the Iceland Basin. The SPMW temperature variability is mainly explained by variations of the relative contributions of the subtropical and subpolar water transports to the total transport. Compared to the 1966–2004 mean, lower (higher) subtropical water relative transport contribution leads to colder (warmer) SPMW in the early 1990s (in the late 1960s and late 1990s). The intensity of the winter convection in the Iceland basin also influences the SPMW temperature through the amount of relatively cold intermediate waters of subtropical origin integrated in the SPMW layer. Strong convection partly explains the cold SPMW of the early 1990s. The large increase in the SPMW temperature in the late 1990s is due to both a decrease in the winter convection and an increase in the relative transport of the subtropical waters