Are People in Groups More Farsighted than Individuals?

A dynamic decision making experiment recently conducted on individuals suggested that people may look ahead but seem either unable or unwilling to predict their own future behaviour. In order to distinguish between these two possibilities, we repeated the experiment with pairs of individuals. The experiment consisted of two decision nodes (interleaved with two chance nodes), with one of the pair choosing at the first decision node and the second of the pair choosing at the second. Given the structure of the experiment, it was simple for the first player to predict the decisions of the second player. Nevertheless, the decisions of the first player indicate strongly that the first player does not in fact do so. It seems that people are unwilling to predict not only their own future behaviour but also the future behaviour of others.Planning; prediction; dynamic decision making; pairs; individuals

A Simple Risk-Sharing Experiment

This paper reports on an experiment designed to test whether pairs of individuals are able to exploit efficiency gains in the sharing of a risky financial prospect. Observations from a previous experiment had suggested a general rejection of efficiency in favour of ex post equality. The present experiment explores some possible explanations for this. The results indicate that fairness is not a significant consideration, but rather that having to choose between prospects diverts partners from allocating the chosen prospect efficiently.Risk-sharing; experiments; bargaining, fairness.

What Price Compromise? Testing a Possibly Surprising Impliction of Nash Bargaining Theory

This paper provides a very simple experimental test of a prediction of Nash Bargaining Theory that seems counterintuitive. The context is a simple bargaining problem between two players who have to agree a choice from three alternatives. One alternative favors one player and a second favors the other. The third is a fair compromise, but is excluded as an agreed choice by Nash Bargaining Theory. Our experimental results show that agreement on this third outcome occurs rather often. So the Nash theory is not well-supported by our evidence, although neither is a Strategic explanation of the data. The Nash-precluded outcome appeals because of its compromise nature; indeed, players are prepared to pay a price which is (according to the Nash theory) irrationally high, in order to reach a fair compromise.

What Price Compromise? Testing a Possibly Surprising Implication of Nash Bargaining Theory

This paper identifies, and tests experimentally, a prediction of Nash Bargaining Theory that may appear counterintuitive. The context is a simple bargaining problem in which two players have to agree a choice from three alternatives. One alternative favours one player and a second favours the other. The third is an apparently reasonable compromise, but is in fact precluded as an agreed choice by the axioms of Nash Bargaining Theory. Experimental results show that agreement on this third alternative occurs rather often. So the axiomatic Nash theory is not well-supported by our evidence. Our subjects' behaviour could be interpreted as the paying of an irrationally (according to the Nash theory) high price in order to reach a compromise agreement.Experiments, Nash Bargaining Theory

Diversity oriented synthesis : substitution at C5 in unreactive pyrimidines by Claisen rearrangement and reactivity in nucleophilic substitution at C2 and C4 in pteridines and pyrido[2,3-d]pyrimidines

Diversity oriented synthesis of fused pyrimidines leads to scaffolds with many biological activities. In the case of the preparation of pyrido[2,3-d]pyrimidines from 2-alkylthiopyrimidines, the formation of a new carbon-carbon bond at C5 is required, a reaction that is very limited in scope. However Claisen type rearrangement of simple 4-allylic ethers affords C5 substituted pyrimidines readily; in cases with an ester substituent, rearrangement occurs at room temperature. Subsequent cyclisation to afford 6-methylpyrido[2,3-d]pyrimidin-7(8H)-ones was achieved in high yield. Using allylic ethers derived from 3-chloromethyl-4-arylbut-3-en-2-ones as substrates, a new titanium[IV]chloride catalysed reaction affording 6-arylmethyl-7-methylpyrido[2,3-d]pyrimidines was discovered. In contrast, 2-alkylthiopteridines are readily available. In both cases, substitution at C2 and C4 to generate diversity has been carried out and the reactivity compared; yields of substitution products were generally higher with pteridine substrates. In biological assays unexpected hits were found for activity against the Gram positive bacterium, Nocardia farcinia, and against the parasite Trypanosoma brucei brucei, illustrating the value of diversity oriented synthesis in the discovery of biologically active compound

Do People Plan?

We report the results of an experimental investigation of a key axiom of economic theories of dynamic decision making – namely, that agents plan. Inferences from previous investigations have been confounded with issues concerning the preference functionals of the agents. Here, we present an innovative experimental design which is driven purely by dominance- if preferences satisfy dominance, we can infer whether subjects are planning or not. We implement three sets of experiments: the first two (the Individual Treatments) in which the same player takes decisions both in the present and the future; and the third (the Pairs Treatment) in which different players take decisions at different times. The two Individual treatments differed in that, in one, the subjects played sequentially, while, in the other, the subjects had to pre-commit to their future move. In all contexts, according to economic theory, the players in the present should anticipate the decision of the player in the future. We find that over half the participants in all three experimental treatments do not appear to be planning ahead; moreover, their ability to plan ahead does not improve with experience, except possibly when we force subjects to pre-commit to their future decision. These findings identify an important lacuna in economic theories, both for individual behaviour and for behaviour in games.

SLIDES: Global Warming and the Endangered Species Act

Presenter: Kieran Suckling, Center for Biological Diversity 15 slide

Responses to Environmentally Relevant Microplastics are Species-specific with Dietary Habit as a Potential Sensitivity Indicator

There is a lack of information on understanding how marine organisms respond to environmentally relevant microplastics (MP) which hampers decision making for waste management strategies. This study addresses this information gap by determining whether responses to MPs are species specific within a functional group. Benthic residing sea urchins, Psammechinus miliaris and Paracentrotus lividuswere used as a case study. Psammechinus miliaris are strong omnivores with dietary intake including hard components (e.g. shell, tubeworms) and therefore likely to cope with the ingestion of MPs, while P. lividus are strong herbivores consuming softer dietary items (e.g. biofilms, algae) and therefore more likely sensitive. Responses to environmentally relevant MPs were conducted across two trials. Trial one determined the impact of short term (24 h) external exposure to storm-like sediment resuspension of MP concentrations (53 μm polyvinyl chloride (PVC) 25,000 MP L−1) compared to a control without MPs. No significant impacts were observed for both P. lividus and P. miliaris on metabolic rate or righting time, and urchins were able to remove MPs from the body surface using pedicellariae and cilia. Trial two determined the impact of medium term (2 months) ingestion of a diet laced with PVC MPs (59 μm) at an inclusion rate of 0.5% mass and a control diet (without MPs) on somatic growth and animal condition. The ingestion of MPs did not significantly impact P. miliaris but significantly reduced the alimentary index within P. lividus, indicating a compromised nutritional state. This study shows that responses to microplastics are species-specific and therefore cannot be generalized. Furthermore, feeding habit could act as a potential indicator for sensitivity to MP ingestion which will be important for impact assessments of plastic pollution and management strategies

The Management with a Low Oxalate Diet of Abdominal Migraine in Children

Thirty-one cases of abdominal migraine have been successfully managed on a low oxalate diet. A suggestion has been put forward to account for some of the symptoms based on an enzyme deficiency of hereditary origin. Further studies are necessary to decide whether ketosis does in fact precede the onset of vomiting and other symptoms, and whether there is a genetically-determined enzymatic fault

SLIDES: Global Warming and the Endangered Species Act

Presenter: Kieran Suckling, Center for Biological Diversity 15 slide